Like Issac, I think that this is open-and-shut in favor of free trade, but I'm not sure the four of us can come to any sort of agreement here.
Again, in game terms:
Mercantilism = trading mainly within your home borders.
Free trade = trade with other nations, getting a large share of trade from TPs and other areas outside your borders.
And remember they still have a large land base to worry about, even if it is sparsely settled. Managing such a large country and an overseas empire isn't the easiest task as France found out, and france is hardly the size of china.
These are great arguments for why China took the historical route, and why the "a" choices should increase mercantilism, but they do *not* suggest that a China that decides to keep its radical naval expansion would move toward mercantilism.
Plus the mentality of the Oriental governments at the time isn't nessarily condusive to free trade. Even the Japanese and others they traded with often had rituals and procedures designed to control who and what was traded. While a more expansive china might have to adapt some of them and make them slightly less restictive in other areas, they would still want a high level of control.
Absolutely. So the slider should move toward free trade, but not all the way to zero. No argument there.
Also encroachment of western nations, which would happen eventually would result intially with maybe a slight tilt toward free trade, but as they saw more and more of them the same result would happen, a tightening of market controls, not from the top down, but from local govenors and administators first then more higher up as the european presence became more prominat. Make excuses, but the agrressivness of European nations in trading, espially the English, would definatly result in closing of their markets.
That is the most likely outcome, but it should be modeled by subsequent historical events, much much later than 1436. "The closure of China" is one such event.
easier embargoes means you can protect your own CoTs easier and make it easier for you to trade in your own CoTs. by establishing formal systematic trading relations with foreign nations it is arguable that China was trying to achieve exactly that. with no free trade refusals, free trade only means that you lose control over your own CoT's, which is what naval China didn't want, it doesn't mean it is easier to trade in overseas CoTs.
with province tendencies, if it is true, then it depends on the risk of losing control of your own CoTs. Naval China would still make domestic CoTs its most important priority.
These arguments, at very best, seem to imply that naval China would be
as mercantilistic as historical China. While domestic CoTs would surely be naval China's "most important" priority, they would be the
only priority for land China.
I can't see a single argument here that says that naval China should be
more mercantilistic than historical China - only that it would have some of the same concerns an inwardly-focussed China did. But Isaac and I have made a few distinct arguments (more colonists, more merchants, fewer trade refusals, and the province CoT tendencies) that argue strongly toward free trade.
I think given the somewhat contentions nature of this debate, it's nice to point out that we've come to an agreement on 95% of the reworking of the "strategic decision" event. So, that's nice.
2-2, anyone want to break the deadlock?