Russian is an accepted culture in the Ukraine. Putin claims he got the "Save the Russian people in Crimea!" mission, but I think that's fabricated.
While Russia did own Crimea at one point, it was spun off to the Ukraine decades ago and when you sell to a vassal you lose your core. Russia still desires it -- it speaks to Russian fantasies of liberating Constantinople from the Turk as it is the only land of the classical world that Russia actually conquered -- but it has no core on it. Even today The Russian Federation has 21 Republic vassal states within it, with lessening autonomy as Putin has reigned them in as they are currently being integrated into the Russian imperialist state. Personally, when I have new relations opening up? I go and try to expand by getting some new vassals. Putin tried to diplovassalize, but the EU has been repeatedly removing Ukraine from sphere, then Russia gets it back in sphere... until finally this International Crisis happened.
This all of course hinges on the resource trading. Russia has raw material resources Europe needs and Europe provides things other than raw materials that Russia needs. As a consequence, Russian Consumer Goods would suffer from a war, while European Energy and Fuel would suffer. Both sides know this, and in the end, Putin knows he could not actually win a war against the Western Allies. Still, to play to the rabble of the Russian people--that he stirred up himself for his own gain--he's got a dispute with Ukraine that has had a huge negative impact on relations between the two nations which is being used to increase National Unity and decrease dissent. The Patriotic War in 1812 and the Great Patriotic War of the 1940s are nothing compared to The Greatest Patriotic War that he could fight against foreign invaders, as he undoubtedly would describe them as. He feels because of the almighty dollar -- Brussels TALKS human rights but really jsut cares, in the end, about money (see a newspaper for details) -- he can't lose. However, Ukraine is recruiting Great Power allies in this International Crisis and may still get one, so long as the EU knows the US will back them up. But there's where Putin thinks he's got this. The US has a strong isolationist streak that has always been there -- separated by oceans, she can afford to stay out of european affairs, who as we students of history all know, are at heart, barbarians who go to war over lots of fabricated claims in the name of their kings and dukes and robber barons or whatever they have over there. I don't know--I'm an American. But given the severity of the last Great Power conflict, Americans have invested highly into the EU and have received a great trading partner, one they do not wish to see torn apart again. So Putin is hoping first that the EU will not risk it and secondly, that dissent across the pond will stop the US from answering the call to arms. So he's making a gamble, because he's a baller and The Most Interesting Man In The World.
i kind of hate you paradox for making me think all these things in the context of your games. and i kind of love you.