about experiments
# CoTs problem description
- poor creation of new CoTs in Colonies
- decline of reasonably "good" CoTs because other countries does not know their locations or do not want to invest there
- too many "poor" European CoTs
- lack of "continuity" of CoTs and events between scenarios
there is nothing to do regarding two first points, except of artificial CoTs creation in such places that they will be popular enough to survive but that will switch off creation of random CoTs (too low minimal number of CoTs)
# May current game (starting OE in 1419 and not fighting against any colonial power so far, however I got some maps of America from Portugal revolters and explored with conquistadors). At the beginning of XVII century: 10 CoTs in Europe after decline of Liguria: Amsterdam very small (less than 100) (Netherlands do not have many colonies so far and later the got CoT in Manhattan) Sjelland small (100-200), Andalusia and Tago not big (their colonial trade goes to other CoTs and Portugal did not play good), Anglia, Danzig and Moscow mediocre (around 200-300), Thrace above 300 (there is still Azerbaijan because Persia never formed), Il de France around 450 (Manhattan has stolen about 50) and only Venice is large (500), but nothing in comparison to some Asian CoTs
- huge CoT in Malacca (over 1000), there were large and big (over 700) CoTs in India (Gujarat and Kerala) but in 1597 Portugal inherited Lanka single huge Goa was created, big Santal and big and large China CoTs (both were large but I have stolen Mongolian's trade from Shanghai)), mediocre CoT in Japan
- there is still CoT in Timbuctu (is huge because it gets trade from almost all Western Africa and my American Colonies)
- Samarkand, Azerbaijan, Aden and Mascate - influenced by my conquests, mediocre Alexandria, large CoT in Mexico and mediocre in Eastern Africa and Manhattan (belongs to Netherlands and eats most of Fernch and English colonies trade)
# Summary of my current game: there are too many European CoTs, and not enough CoTs in colonized areas (right now only one popping up and disappearing in different locations in Mexico) and new Manhattan, popping-up CoTs in Siberian Corridor or in the East and South Africa would/does not help either: Europe has 40% (10 of 25) of the minimum number of CoTs
# It is written in AGCEEP's scenario files that minimum number of CoTs is 22, however I have noticed that random CoTs pops up to 25 CoTs
# Disappearing CoTs
- Cuzco disappeared between my saves in 1452 (53% failure) and 1480, but there were two countries there for some time. I propose to add this CoT, a few times, by events, and maybe later one in Lima (so we have continuity to 1648 scenario). I will check how long single Cuzco will survive, but similar analysis based on other CoT says about 30-35 years
(however support for Lima and late Cuzco may block creation of random CoT in south america at the end of 16th century (before colonization is too weak)
- Rufiji disappeared in 1540, 1520 scenario has CoT in Kenya, so I propose to add CoT by event when Rufiji disappears or just before 1520 (right now I have random CoT in Tanga province, which also will disapper, because only Portugal and Kliwa have merchants there and its location is known only to Portugal, its two revolters (belong to different CoTs) and 3 African neighbours, which prefer to invest in much more lucrative Aden (one of them belongs to Aden anyway), which is also reason why (I suspect) Mascate will disappear
-> no one invested in Tanga in last 4 years, at least without visible results (short-term save)! it has still 3 merchants (like 4 years ago) inside and rate of decay is about 2.1 per year;
3 years after removal of Aden number of merchants in Tanga is equal 13, so it is slowly beeing populated by surrounding African countries (which were trading in Aden before)) and the decline rate is slowing, but all African countries and 1 merchant of Portugal will give 16 merchants and finally CoT will disappear (average decline rate has fallen to less than 2/year);
- removal of Aden did not help Mascate much (also because CoT in Isfahan has appeared); its decline rate is about 2.1/year (trade volume about 100 (about 4 provinces)), 6 merchants of Oman (Portugese revolter), who sends his own merchants to Mascate all the time kicking out other merchants, 5 mine (only because of trade agreement, before that one merchant was kicked out every few months) and 1 merchant of some Indian country), so Mascate is doomed, unless Oman stops kicking outher merchants out; in other games, when small Arabian countries will generate merchants it may fare better (however even these sunni countries have tendency to diploannex themselves and attack their shiia neighbours; in my game Oman, Ottoman Empire and Baluchistan are all that survived in the Middle East (plus Adal, Ethiopia and 3 other countries in East Africa, which have CoTs in Tanga and Alexandria (after removal of Aden)); they know localization of Mascate so they might trade there if it is bigger
- Kizylkum disappeared in 1490 - no problem there
- there was a miniature CoT in Acadie (French colony) but it disappeared quite fast
- Zacates disappeared around 1530 (in 1523 had 83% of failure) and since that time new CoTs pop-up somehere in Mexico when old ones die - no problem - analysis of saves from 1561, 1590 and current one indicate that even Spain did not invest in its CoT a lot during last years (2 merchants between 1590 and 1599), short term decay rate is 3.0 per year, which gives about 37 years for the stand-alone CoT to disappear (I have seen CoTs with failure rate equal to 110 and still kicking around), but long term analysis gives turn-around rate about 30 years (in 1561 and 1590 different Mexican CoTs had identical failure rate equal 32, so it means that Spain finally gains monopoly in this CoT (which increases decay rate - see below).
# Proposal: CoT for an european country is an economical booster so if region/country declined it should be removed (maybe depending on triggers designed for human players), eg. Danzig, Sjelland, Stockholm and for sure Mecklenburg and Livland also (if survived), IMO also Tago in XVII century and Amsterdam in XVIII century should be removed; this will allow for random creation of more CoTs, even if we decide to artificially introduce/support CoTs
# is there command "discovering" province for country?
# HOW TO FORCE OTHER EUROPEAN/ASIAN COUNTRIES TO INVEST IN AMERICAS, AFRICA, etc. (except of owning colonies
)? I have seen some Asian buggers investing all over Europe, so all they need are maps of CoTs localizations
# what might be wrong with my other idea (below) of artificial creation/support of some CoTs: it can completely disable automatic popping-up of new CoTs, because there will be too many CoTs, unless it will be used only once-between scenarios (except for 1419-1520 when almost no colonization exists) and then these CoTs will dissapear after a few decades and we will be back into the world of random CoTs;
# continuity problems:
- Aden - disappears in 1520 scenario and appears in 1648; proposal: give it back in 1520 and remove in 1648: see event below
- Sjelland - disappears in 1648 - OK see proposed event
- Guangdong - disappears in 1520 and appears in 1648; proposal: give it back in 1520
- Kyushu - moves to Kansai in 1520 and back to Kyushu in 1648, no idea if it should move at all
- south america : see events below: artificial support for Cuzco, creation of Pernambuco and Lima, is it viable? (no more random CoTs before all these disappear)
- Africa: I propose artificial support for Kenya (appears in 1520 scenario) but I am not sure about El Mina (Sierra Leone) in 1648 (who knows who will colonize and conquer this province?, if anyone at all!!), however after removal of Aden maybe some east-African CoT could be added - like Zanzibar? (Portugese have Pernambuco but lost Mascate and Malacca in 1648, and I propose to delete Tago in not fat future)
; on the second thought, through Leone might be not inhabited (even if should), CoT could be placed in Palanas, Benin or Nigeria I think that there was CoT in vanilla game there (random CoT in Table or on St. Helene island will have very small trade and will disappear after 30 years)
- date problems: Mascate and Isfahan appear in 1520 scenario well before their event dates, maybe extra event for Isfahan should be created and I propose to change Mascate back to al-Kharam in 1520 (both are Portugese so I see no problem)
- Austria appears in 1648 before event (1670), IMO Venice could exist in 1648 and disappear according to the event
- lack of idea and knowledge what to do about Indian CoTs (what triggers and what to write in description): Goa in 1520 changes to Surat in 1648 (back to Gujarat), Santal from 1419 moves to Ganges in 1520 and Howrah in 1648 (and one has to consider that e.g. Goa might not appear at all)
- Jakarta: add event moving CoT from Malacca (if it belongs to the Netherlands). I foresee problem for Netherlands' AI: it may be hard for AI to conquer Jakarta much faster, (or even at all) and HOL has events targeting Jakarta almost since beginning of XVII century (HOL can get event giving it core but in my game triggers did not allow for it because of lousy Portugal), IMO HOL_18019 should be fired at given date and not triggered form Portugese event and Jakarta should be seceded to Netherlands similarly like Goa to Portugal and Madras to England (if is owned by natives)
- CoT from nowhere: Astrakhan: appears in 1520 but is not created nor (more importantly) deleted in any of existing events, I propose to add it if Astrakhan is big enough (4 is an initial size in 1520 scenario, playing since 1419 by Collapse and Demise of Golden Horde Volgograd(Tsaritsin) will be a spoil of country fighting with GH, thus it will be probably Russia) and delete when Astrakhan has fallen (to give chance Samarkand) or in creation of Tobolsk's CoT without asking
# proposals: remove some European and one middle-east CoTs:
- 15th century Livonia (if both Poland and Teutonic Order did not remove it), Livonian Order in 16th century was a shadow of a former strength (thus Ivan the Terrible decided to conquer it), and frankly speaking they never deserved CoT both economically (were not merchant republic like Novgorod or some Hansa cities) and militarly, Teutonic Order had some naval strength but it was shattered by Poland during 13 Years War and even at that time Livonia was weaker than Teutonic Order. Both crusader states were in deep economical crisis in the middle of 15th century, partly because of costly wars and because of their ruling model also; IMO removal without trigger
- late 15th century: removal of Mecklenburg (if Sjelland did not remove it): to sterngthen Danzig, Hanza was declining in 15th century, human players have other CoTs, Mecklenburg stays only if both Sjelland and Danzig were not created and is removed by Anglia; this CoT had its rights to exists only for Unified Germany, but for GER I propose series of events giving it CoT in capital (at the end of 16th century or in 17th century + remove Venice)
- 16th century: one of CoTs in Arabian penninsula (there too many of them and they limit themselves +Isfahan, Alexandia, East Africa nad Indian CoTs): Al-Kharam will move to Mascate and Oman historically should prosper and kick Porugal out of East Africa so I propose to delete Aden (historically Aden lost it importance after Portugese discovered route to India)
- 17th century: removal of Sjelland (almost no conditions because Amsterdam must be stronger, and historically Danmark lock on Sund was broken by Sweden and Netherlands during 30 Year War, avoidable by human DAN or SWE only)
- second half of 17th century: removal of Tago: if they keep some CoT in colonies - its good for them, but Portugese trade routes were taken over by Netherlands, England and partially by Spain (no idea how human-only trigger could look like, I propose no trigger since human can conquer Andalusia, Al-Kharam, Malacca, Morocco and Timbuctu (human support added), etc. maybe alternative Morocco CoT event should be written as well?
- 17th/18th century: removal of Danzig with triggers (avoidable only by a human): it definitely declined in 18th century, I can provide historical sources
- 18th century: removal of Stockholm's CoT: after Northern Conflict (20 Years War), Sweden was broken (no trigger? human can capture and keep Sjelland, Novgorod and Danzig before its decline)
- end of 18th century: moving CoT from Amsterdam to Berlin; Kingdom of Prussia was rising star and Netherlands did decline, also to compensate removal of Danzig, which Prussia is supposed to capture after 1772
# changes to keep continuity between scenarios
- earlier Isfahan date (Thrace or worse Kerch, Isfahan, Azerbeijan do not have enough breating space togeteher)
- Tobolsk removes Astrakhan
- Astrakhan removes Kerch, what about Kyzylkum and Samarkand? (do not exist in 1520 scenario) so I propose: removal of Kyzylkum and special event removing Samarkand with triggers for humans only (for Uzbeks or Timurids)
-
# alternatives (like control of Bosphorus) for humans:
- Isfahan: Goa is supposed to remove one Indian CoT, Samarkand will dissapear and Azerbaijan is too close to Thrace/Kerch and Astrakhan, so IMO Isfahan should have an altervative event
- alternative Morocco (for e.g. human Portugal or Songhai)
- two alternatives for Tobolsk (succesor of Samarkand, Kyzylkum and Astrakhan):
- what if Uzbeks, Timurids, Turks etc. will conquer all Central Asia before Russia (and move to Siberia, conquer Mongolia etc.) - such CoT should be located in Central Asia
- what if China/Manchu decide to come to Central Asia/conquer Siberia? stopping Russia from claiming Tobolsk would be harder, maybe an extra CoT should be created to serve this trade? (plus decline of Tobolsk if Russia does not own Mongolia)
# a new CoT can not be located in the Siberian corridor, because it means that nobody will know its location, thus it must be located in Central Asia, Samarkand again? maybe Khiva or Buchara; Uzbeks have their Kyzylkum, but it is fairly remote localization and unless Uzbecks will quickly dominate militarly and economically over Samarkand it will disappear (and if they conquer neighbours it will disapear nevertheless, but Uzbeks can move capital to Samarkand) so Samarkand stays and have chance for resurrection
# Manchuria is a piss-poor location as well; so the only possibility would be new CoT in Manchu's capital and removal of Japan's CoT if Manchu conquers the WHOLE Mongolia
# other proposals:
- keep Timbuctu alive if country is big enough (25?), like Marocco grabbed and kept whole Western Africa ahead of time or Songhai conquered Marocco, or someone else conquered the whole west Africa (so in fact CoT will eventally disappear because lack of activity) till creation of Maroccan CoT, maybe additional tinkering is required for human Songhai
- artificial recreation of American and East-African CoTs
MY EXPERIMENTS on random CoT creation and CoTs decline;
Initial experiments has shown that:
- insertion of merchant (regardless success/failure) lowers decline by 0.005; confirmed in situations when there is a "free" slot in CoT, in case of multiple insertion number of other merchants already sent does not matter; insertions when foreign merchants are already on their way to CoT were not examined, full CoTs were not examined
After rejection of a few false hypothesis by experiments systematical research on static CoTs situations was conducted. Number of availabe merchants for all nations were zeroed and behavior of static CoTs was observed.
- nationality does not influence results (nor internal policy settings)
- number of different nations in CoT influences decline rate
- nations with 0-eth presence (kicked out) influence decline rate! (decrease)
- generally - more nations, slower decline
- monopoly increases decline rate by 0.083/month
- higher number of merchants in CoT - slower decline
- static full CoT without monopoly is stable (only 4 nations!), with monopoly may be declining
-
STATIC results (unless there is a bug somewhere)
# the real number is some fraction, thus sometimes it is e.g. 0.012
# instead of 0.013, 0.166 instead of 0.167 etc.
number of nations: together with active and kicked-out (level = 0.000) merchants!
- 1- 6 merchants, 1 nation : failure rate 0.250/month
- 2- 7 merchants, 2- 5 nations: failure rate 0.179/month
- 8-12 merchants, 2- 5 nations: failure rate 0.096/month
- 13-15 merchants, 3- 5 nations: failure rate 0.054/month
- 16-19 merchants, 3- 5 nations: failure rate 0.013/month
- 20 merchants, 4- 5 nations: failure rate -0.029/month
- 1- 7 merchants, 6-20 nations: failure rate 0.042/month
- 8-12 merchants, 6-20 nations: failure rate -0.042/month
- 13-15 merchants 6-20 nations: failure rate -0.083/month
- 16-19 merchants, 6-20 nations: failure rate -0.125/month
- 20 merchants, 6-20 nations: failure rate -0.167/month
- direct impact of kicking out of merchants on failure rate unconfirmed
Generally we can see that 4 nations is able to keep COT alive, if there are 6 nations one of them can even have monopoly; every movement also reduce failure rate, but 4 nations with monopoly can not keep CoT alive, no matter what they do (movement bonus is very small).
Observation: when Cuzco disappears, Incas trade goes to Asia, not Zacatecas, so when distance between province and CoT is calculated, Ocean has very low distance weight or even zero. Hypothesis: when new CoT is created the same algorithm is used, and that is why CoTs on very small, remote islands are created.
Hypothesis which seems to be right: there is a queue of CoTs awaiting for creation (or strict mathematical algorithm based on distances between CoTs and/or colonies/colonial cities/cities and CoTs). So long no external CoTs disappered/ was created or new colonies were established this queue remains unchanged and new random CoTs are taken from this queue.
Thus new CoTs not always will be created in "needed" places with dense colonization (Carribean, Indonesia and Oceania really suck because so many islands and CoTs in Asia or Mexico exist), but sometimes "at the corner of known world", to satisfy condition on minimum distance/uniform distribution or whatever (and CoTs in Acadie, Aleutes, St. Helena, Bourbon, Table (while there were no other colonies within 6 or 10 provinces) etc. appear).
This observation, and another that trade from some "internally" located CoTs can be seamlessly taken over by other existing CoTs, thus new random CoT may be created inspired me to propose the Great World's Trade Shaker events; test events and results were described at the end of event file.
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History of CoTs decline and creation
- when Portugese has finally captured Goa after inheritance of Lanca in 1597, Kerala and Gujarat disappered and CoT in Manhattan appeared (seen at least by two native Americans), the same CoT appeared when I turned on my events and killed Sjelland and Aden in 1594: Manhanntan and year later St. Helena (also HOL) CoTs were created, when Portugese killed Gujarat I got CoT in Enkan (far Siberia)
- another experiment: removal of Sjelland, Aden, Timbuctu and Danzig in 1594; unfortunatelly gross of European trade was taken over by Venice (volume=760 - from Anhalt in straight line to Stockholm, to Danzig, to Galizien) so early removal of Danzig is not recommended (at least not before creation of Vienna CoT, probably some Central-European CoT is needed - I will check at the end of XVII century), some by Moscow and Anglia, Amsterdam is unfortunatelly small (volume=156 before Manhattan and St. Helena had been created), Alexandia took over Timbuktu and had over 1500;
first CoT to appear was Arica (originally Inca, now Ottoman Empire), known by Inca and Spain, second Manhattan, third St. Helena (right now 4 provinces, trade from Western Africa goes to Tago or Alexandria (even from independent Kongo), when Goa was created I got CoT in Enkan, when my event moving CoT from Azerbaijan to Isfahan fired, an additional Cot in Antigua (French colony) was created (although there were larger Spanish and one larger Ottoman colony in the area) Antigua is a small CoT: two French Isles, 3 Ottoman and 3 Spanich provinces).
- another experiment: removal of 5 cots (above + Tago), first appears Arica, second CoT appeared in Tiracambu, Portugal colony in Brasil (my colonies in Recife, Pernambuco etc are larger), probably recompensation for lost Tago (it gained Portugese trade from Western Africa), third Manhattan, fourth St. Helena (when Goa appeared), fifth Enkan and last Antigua
- another experiment: removal Of Sjelland and Timbuctu: appears Arica, later Manhattan and St. Helena with Goa (St. Helena is complete misunderstanding with trade 14 but I have no idea how to avoid it); it looks like Arica appears for Timbuctu and Tiracambu for Tago
- another experiment: romoval of Timbuctu and Tago, yep; Arica and Tiracambu appeared plus Manhattan when Gates of India created Goa
- removal of three CoTs (Danzig, Sjelland and Aden) created: Manhattan, St. Helene and Enkan plus Atacama (neighbour of Arica in Chile) when Gates of India fired
# testing results seems to indicate that mercantilism nor colonization density (per se) do not influence CoTs creation, so the main factor (I guess) is geographical localization of existing CoTs and localization of viable colonies/colonial cities and distance of inhabited province to the existing CoTs (TP does not matter)
- I had in other games CoTs in Alaska or Kamtchatka, which served a single or a few colonies only, in current game St. Helena and Acadie served a handful of colonies only (however maybe St. Helene is supposed to get trade from Western Africa)
- first CoTs has appeared for countries with mercantilism equal 9 or 10 (1 POR and FRA, 2 or 3 SPA), however Netherlands has mercantilism 0 and my OE has 2 (and I am 3rd colonizer of the world, but I have received CoT after decimation of existing CoTs only)
- I guess the list of importance may be as follows:
- Central America (Mexico)
- North America (Acadie, Manhattan) - I dunno which is more important: Africa or N. America, in 1523 France did not know localization of Acadie and in 1561 there was already CoT with 1 merchant and failure rate equal 24 which suggest that it was created 8 years earlier in 1553 (Rufiji disappeared in 1540, Liguria in 1541, so to my best knowledge (or my complete ignorance, if my calculations are off) during 12 years no random CoT has been created at all and only 23 CoTs existed (Anglia was created in 1560 and in 1561 25 CoTs existed)
- East Africa (Tanga), created after Acadie disappeared
# after removal of 2 CoTs
- West Africa (St Helena, and there is still existing Timbuktu also in West Africa), but there are no colonies (only traing posts) in South Africa, so it may be that East and West Africa are just the nearest localization for South African CoT (I know that Table is popular spot for CoT)
- Siberia/Alasca
- South America
- Indonesia (the lowest priority??)
Another theory was that there are exceptions when colonial coutry loses its capital CoT (Tago) or very imortant CoT (geographically and maybe also volume of trade (but much less probably)) like Timbuctu but not Aden (surrounded by Mascate, Alexandria and Tanga)
This theory also happened to be wrong after such tests in 1594:
- removal of Anglia, Aden and Sjelland (Englad has 4 colonial cities, 1 colony and 4 Trading posts in North America- much more than Netherlands): appeared: Manhattan, St. Helena, Encan and Atacama (2xHOL and 2 mine)
- removal of Il de France, Aden and Sjelland (France has 4 colonial cities, 1 colony and 3 trading posts in America): appeared: Manhattan, St. Helena, Encan and Atacama
- removal of Andalusia, Aden and Sjelland (Spain owns a big chunk of America and have once CoT in Mexico): appeared: Manhattan, St. Helena, Encan and Atacama
- removal of Tago, Aden and Sjelland: appeared: Tiracambu (POR), Manhattan, St. Helena and Encan
Maybe Portugal (1 city, 5 colonial cities, 5 TP, 1 colony in Africa and Americas + conquered Tanga and Mombassa) is treated in special way, but probably it was because of location of Tago at the edge of Europe, so it is localization of removed CoT which is more critical in the choice: do we take new CoT from the list (Manhattan, St. Helena, Encan and Atacama) or make special one (Arica and Tiracambu)
Another tests: final versions od events removed Aden and moved Azerbaijan to Isfahan in 1594, command "cot" created also random CoT in Kalakan (inside Mongolia), Gate of India and creation of Goa created random CoT in Manhattan as well, in 1597 Danzig and Sjelland were removed, and in next years St. Helena and Atacama has appeared
- in 1597 three CoTs removed: Timbuctu, Danzig and Sjelland: Atacama appears first (as it appears this is not replacement for Timbuktu but CoT from queue), St. Helena second, and Oh joy, Tindore as the third (which balanced situation in Indonesia); it would mean that old CoT queue (Manhattan, St.Helena, Siberia, S.America) is seriously shaken (Antigua did not appear, Atacama and Siberia earlier, probably consequence of Isfahan)
- in 1597 Danzig, Sjelland and Tanga removed (East african trade went to Goa, Mascate is too weak to dominate over Africa); 1st appeared Lobito (West Africa, in Angola, the only city/colony loacted south of Kongo and Kliwa (except of Zimbabwe)), and took part part of East African trade, half or more stayed at Goa; second was Atacama, third Tindore (so it is new queue?); removal of Tanga and creation of Lobito kicked St. Helene out of queue and let Tindore in
- in 1597 removal of Danzig, Timbuctu, Tanga, Sjelland: first Atacama, then Lobito, Tindore and Martinique (completely new French colony with population 200 (was TP before))
- in 1597 as above + Tago: first Tiracambu, Atacama, Lobito, Tindore, Antigua (French, that time they did not develop Martinique)
- in 1597 as above but minus Timbuktu: Tiracambu, Lobito, Atacama and Martinique!; so it means that Tindore appears only after serious shaking of CoTs (removal of Timbuktu or Tanga) or is very far, far away in queue; notice that South America=Atacama lost its priority as well
#These results led to the theory presented above
statistics co far:
Central America - always CoTs (I guess)
North America - very often 1 CoT
East Africa - appeared when there were no colonies elsewhere except African Coast and Central America/Carribean (however I also stared colonization of Indonesia about 1530)
West Africa - in fact island St Helene, probably instead of South Africa, quite persistem right now, appears as substitution for East Africa as well
Siberia - 1
South America - after Siberia (except when plugging hole after Timbuktu or Tago)
Carribean (appeared when South America had at least 1 CoT)
Indonesia at the end?
Testing on save from 1561 (Acadie in Noth Africa and Tlaxcala in Central, CoT in East Africa; colonization: very, very sparse in N. America, Good in Central, average in Venezuela, poor in Carribean not bad in Brasil, quite good western coast of Africa, only Lobito below equator, good in Indonesia, 2 colonies in near Siberia);
generally 1560 is much too early - not enough colonies
- 6 CoTs removed: extra random CoTs: Lobito, Itaimas (because number of CoTs is 26)
- 8 CoTs removed: extra random CoTs: Lobito, Itaimas, Leone (El Mina)
- 10 CoTs removed: extra random CoTs: Lobito, Itaimas, Kazan, Leone !!! - ahh.. there was no Siberian CoT so Thrace was not good enough to anchor trans-Ural trade
# changed sequence : Lobito, Itaimas, Nain (Artical Canada), Kazan !!! - Nain is very close to Acadie, well the previous problem was that maybe Samarkand was an external CoT, did Nain appear because Anglia was removed?
# changed recreation sequence : Lobito, Itaimas, Kazan, Leone; wow Kazan again
# changed recreation sequence : Lobito, Itaimas, Leone, Harerge (in Ethiopia!) - what is wrong with my Indonesian Colonies? and hole in the Arabic Penninsula was not big: Alexandria, Isfahan, Kenya, Gujarat and Kerala existed !
#After removal of Acadie: (there might be a problem with Anglia)
# changed recreation sequence : Lobito, Acadie, Itaimas, Leone, Nain (but Anglia was already placed back)
Anglia and Samarkand could have been external so have been exchanged for Guangdong and Gujarat; maybe it will create new Indonesian CoT, Andalusia CoT should be internal
sequence of new CoTs: Lobito, Acadie, Nain, Itaimas, Leone; bah, no luck with Indonesia so far (Guangdong created Nain, Gujarat Itaimas)
changed sequence: Lobito, Acadie, Itaimas, Nain, Leone; Asian CoTs recreated last, Andalusia created Itaimas, Flandern Nain
why Nain and not CoT inside Inca Empire, in Carribean or Indonesia? There are exactly 3 colonial cities and one colony in North America (Chesapeake, Acadie and its neighbour and Nain); is Labrador (Nain is in Labrador) considered together with Alasca and Siberia?
So it seems that not only distance matters, additional hypothesis to explain results:
- Lobito substitutes South Africa
- Nain substitutes Siberia?
Hypothesis1: Large/colonial country has higher chance to receive CoT
Hypothesis2: fact that province is known to more countries does not influence chances: Nain is known only to England, Chesapeake to France and Spain, Acadie to England, France and Spain, Lobito only to Portugal and its 2 revolters, Leone is known by Portugal, Spain, Ottomans plus 4 other countries
Siberian corridor was known to only me;
