A static comparision: Accelerated production for infrastructure?

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Pang Bingxun

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I would like to compare building Infrastructure regularly and by using twice or even triple ic. Let us assume that manpower and ic are not limited and that any excessive ic is used for consumer goods. The money/icd ratio remains constant. There is no progress in technology. There is no change in ministers, national ideas and sliders and there is no peacetime modifier. Those conditions will essentialy never be met but they allow an easy comparision and donnot detract much from truth.

Building Infrastructure costs 2 ic over 120 days, uses 0.5 manpower and gives 5% per unit. Some terrains increase building time, gearing bonus decreases it and so do 2 sliders and 2 national ideas. Those modifiers are relevant for the question whether to build infra or not. They are not relevant for the question whether to use accelerated production for it because the time advantage of accelerated production is proportional to building time. Let this modifier be called tm, time modifier. There is also an effect of manpower being consumed earlier if the next unit starts production earlier. We will ignore it. Than there remains the price of additional icd invested by accelerated production. This is (4 x 120 / sqrt(2) - 2 x 120 ) x tm x icd or (6 x 120 / sqrt(3) - 4 x 120 / sqrt(2)) x tm x icd. After a unit is finished there is the need to repair infra and additionaly the provincial effeciency is needed to increase to the new maximum. Both processes are finished fast and more importantly they are the same. They donnot depend on acceleration and can therefore be ignored. What leaves is an advantage in time. This is (120 - 120 / sqrt(2)) tm x d or (120 / sqrt(2) - 120 / sqrt(3)) tm x d. This time needs to be multiplied with the number of infra units left(later called size). During this time the output of ic, the 4 resources and the 3 resource plants will be increased. Let us ignore plants for energy, oil and rares. Than the advantage is size x 0.015 x (factories x (1 + 0.01 factories) x effective ic modifier x (1 - civil expenses ratio + 2 energy x trade ratio / money modifier + 1 metal x trade ratio / money modifier + 0.5 rares x trade ratio / money modifier) + (1 + 0.01 factories) x resource modifier x ( base energy x trade ratio + base metal x trade ratio + base oil x trade ratio + base rares x trade ratio) / money modifier) x (120 - 120 / sqrt(2)) tm x d for double acceleration. Civil expenses ratio is the ratio of ic that is needed for consumer goods to fund increased civil expenses due to an increase of effective ic by 1. trade ratio is the trade ratio to money you get(or have to pay) for this change in tradeable resources. money modifier is the amount of money you get per 1 icd put into consumergoods. resource modifier is the modifier for resources by machine tools techs and ministers. Since effective ic and days are calculated as integers there is quite some rounding error but that will reduce when building long lines of infra. After all this we get that the following inequation must be true for double acceleration to increase the money stockpile in the end:

size x 0.015 x (factories x (1 + 0.01 factories) x effective ic modifier x (1 - civil expenses ratio + 2 energy x trade ratio / money modifier + 1 metal x trade ratio / money modifier + 0.5 rares x trade ratio / money modifier) + (1 + 0.01 factories) x resource modifier x ( base energy x trade ratio + base metal x trade ratio + base oil x trade ratio + base rares x trade ratio) / money modifier) x (1 - 1 / sqrt(2)) / ( 2 x sqrt(2) - 2 ) > 1

In most cases the delta in resources is small compared to the money value of increased ic. So lets assume the delta resources may be zero, that addional resources are exactly consumed by addional effective ic. Lets assume that civil expenses ratio is 0.2 at war and that effective ic modifier is 1.25. Than things get relativly easy.

size x (factories x (1 + 0.01 factories) > 188.562 for double acceleration or size x (factories x (1 + 0.01 factories) > 326.598 for triple acceleration. If 20 units or 100% infra are left size is 20. Than (factories x (1 + 0.01 factories) would need to be 9.4281 for double acceleration or 16.3299 for triple acceleration.

Edit: corrected a factor of 2
 
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Epaminondas

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While labouring under the weight of your maths, Pang, I think I'm following the path you're blazing here. But a destination marker would be helpful. Can you provide a succinct plain language conclusion to your analysis for those of us with differently aligned neural nets?
 
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Titan79

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...Can you provide a succinct plain language conclusion to your analysis for those of us with differently aligned neural nets?
Now this is a phrase I'm going to use in a book should I ever write one, Epa... with your kind consent, of course!
 
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lollibast

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Pang is saying you should use double acceleration of infra in provinces with 10 or more factories and triple acc in provinces of 17 or more factories. I think. Could be a recipe for blueberry pie though....
 

Pang Bingxun

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Can you provide a succinct plain language conclusion to your analysis for those of us with differently aligned neural nets?

It has often be considered that beginning at 7 factories at plains it is more icd-efficient to increase infra instead of building another factory. The treshold to use accelerared production is slightly above that. For example you have a province with 7 factories and 80% infra. You want to increase infra to 200%. Here it is not yet economically to accelerated b factor 2. If however infra has to be increased from 70% it is economically to accelerate the first unit and build the last 25 units at regular speed. In practise many more things have to be considered. Germany and Japan are low on resources so increasing infra is crucial and increasing base ic increases tech slots which must be considered very important for an AI.
Or in different words: My conclusion is inconclusive. ;)

Pang is saying you should use double acceleration of infra in provinces with 10 or more factories and triple acc in provinces of 17 or more factories. I think. Could be a recipe for blueberry pie though....

Not exactly. One as to take concentration bonus into account. 9 x 1.09 = 9.81. That would suffice for the treshold of 9.4281 in case of 20 units to be build. The most important conclusion is that one as to reduce the acceleration once the units left to build decrease because finishing a unit. The treshold depends on size, the number of infra units that will be finished earlier.
 

Epaminondas

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Or in different words: My conclusion is inconclusive. ;)

They're not just different words - they're very familiar words. I've used a Sir Humphreyfied version myself from time to time, towit -
"A rigorous examination of all the facts and presumed facts presented and implied leads one to the inescapable albiet tentative conclusion that at this time and with the expectation that no substantive changes to the prevailing circumstances are likely to occur within the immediately foreseeable future, no conclusive recommendation on the application of the recommended procedure can usefully be offered."

The most important conclusion is that one as to reduce the acceleration once the units left to build decrease because finishing a unit. The treshold depends on size, the number of infra units that will be finished earlier.

But many thanks to you and lolli for this.
 

lollibast

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I usually go with double and triple speed anyway because infra is cool and improves ESE too :). What i do is look at the production queue and see when the whole series is complete and then accelerate to satisfying completion dates. It's also important to get your "supply chanels" up fast
 

Pang Bingxun

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For ESE reasons it is better start building them earlier so there is no need to accelerate. Acceleration for ESE is only a short time solution which if possible should be avoided by planning ahead.

When it comes to general building schemes one has to calculate in the opportunity costs of maintaining and upgrading units. This makes it reasonable to use 50-80% of the treshold values i calculated. Another issue is that gearing bonus increases resource consumption therefore it is preferable to use acceleration for the first ~5 units and step down to regular production then. And there is the issue of retooling and gearing bonus for military units which make it important to have sufficient ic available early. Simple steping down for double speed can raise available ic immediatly.
 

Autolykos

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Good to know. When going "by feel" i tended to start infra builds in provinces with too low IC and stopped too early (i.e. before 200%) in high IC provinces.
So the correct build order (if there are no other constraints) in a plains province would be:
IC to 7 -> Infra to 200% -> more IC
or is building factories and infra in parallel more efficient (if I have the IC to do it)?
Is it safe to assume that accelerating factories is never worth it?

@Epaminondas: Yup, Sir Humphrey Appleby is a great source of quotes (if you manage to remember them).
 

lollibast

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So the correct build order (if there are no other constraints) in a plains province would be:
IC to 7 -> Infra to 200% -> more IC
or is building factories and infra in parallel more efficient (if I have the IC to do it)?

If you have the IC to build factories in low IC and low Infra provinces you should not stop building IC after 7, on the contrary. Concentration effect makes consecutive factories better than previous ones. And considering the long build times the game would most likely be over before you build a province to 7 factories and then to 200% infra.
 

Pang Bingxun

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Is it safe to assume that accelerating factories is never worth it?

On the contrary. If no short term limitations apply it is not worth to not accelerate factories. Concentration bonus is powerful. Lets assume you have 27 factories(like tokyo 1936) and 200% Infra. That is 1.3 x 1.27 x 27 ic = 44.577 ic. Now build one factory and you get 46.592 ic. That is more than 2 ic more. But with triple acceleration it only costs 1.7321 times as much icd as without acceleration.
So the best procedure is to find the 3-7 best provinces with much metal and rares. Build factories only there and only with triple acceleration. Build Infra there with the speed recommened by the formula in this thread. As factories will increase you might calculate with the value of factories at that point in time when 200% infra will be reached. This is a bit optimistic but not very wrong either.


Please note that 7 factories is only a very vague estimate. It depends on a lot of circumstances.
 

AndrewT

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Please don't post in old threads, thanks.
 
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