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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

TheButterflyComposer

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Have you actually seen the Dutch Navy at this time? It's not even Top 5 in Europe; RN, France, Italy, Germany, Spain (they have battleships! which are crap but still. They also have proper modern heavy cruisers.)
Oh yes, but unlike the Spanish, they still have delusions of grandeur and aren't in a civil war. They'll be pissed to be passed over when everyone around them is getting together for a naval treaty.
 

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Oh yes, but unlike the Spanish, they still have delusions of grandeur and aren't in a civil war. They'll be pissed to be passed over when everyone around them is getting together for a naval treaty.
They've been ignored for the Washington and London naval treaties already, surely the Dutch are used to being ignored by now. If it really bothered them they would start building ships that threatened the balance of power, then people would have to invite them. They didn't, so clearly they can't be that annoyed.
 

TheButterflyComposer

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They've been ignored for the Washington and London naval treaties already, surely the Dutch are used to being ignored by now. If it really bothered them they would start building ships that threatened the balance of power, then people would have to invite them. They didn't, so clearly they can't be that annoyed.
You saying that just because it makes no sense, they won't be angry?

BTW, any reason they didn't build more ships since they still had an empire in the far east and knew Japan was gunning for it? Aside from assuming the UK and US would win the resulting naval war and give them the land back?
 

Captured Joe

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BTW, any reason they didn't build more ships since they still had an empire in the far east and knew Japan was gunning for it?
They were still in depression but were already negotiating a licence to build Scharnhorst-like battlecruisers with Germany.
 

El Pip

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You saying that just because it makes no sense, they won't be angry?
First couple of times maybe. By now they've either learnt or no-one cares about their ritualistic complaints.

BTW, any reason they didn't build more ships since they still had an empire in the far east and knew Japan was gunning for it? Aside from assuming the UK and US would win the resulting naval war and give them the land back?
They were still in depression but were already negotiating a licence to build Scharnhorst-like battlecruisers with Germany.
This is covered in majestic detail in Butterfly Effect. ( ;) ) But my understanding is that the Dutch knew they would lose a one-on-one war with Japan, so made no real attempt to plan for that scenario and focused everything on assuming they would have the RN and/or USN to help. Dutch naval intelligence believed the IJN cruiser squadrons operated alone and that the main IJN fleet would have to cover the British and Americans, so "all" they would have to do was fight off some heavy cruiser squadrons. Submarines were the initial answer to this, hence the efforts focused on them (IvS being the official German front organisation for illegal submarine development also helped with the development to an unclear but probably substantial degree).

But it was apparent subs were a terrible deterrent and something more visible was required, hence the Project 1047 battlecruisers. Exactly the same concept; take out/deter IJN cruisers and invasion transports while hoping the big stuff was elsewhere, but more capable, more obvious and so hopefully a more useful deterrent. The Project 1047s might, maybe, have had a chance of beating a Kongo class battlecruiser, which post-modernisation was a potent threat that might be detached from the main fleet. It would be a nasty fight (bigger guns to Japan, better armour and speed to the Dutch) and that was sort of the point; be a hard enough target that the IJN need to send a major force, which (in theory) can't happen as the RN and USN are distracting all the IJN's heavy units.

The main problem with the plan was timing, the Project only started early 1939 (first unofficial planning very late 1938) and after a lot of arguing with France did indeed end up as a variant of the Scharnhorst with some changes (licence built British boilers/turbines, Dutch secondary weapons, etc) and a weird Italian derived torpedo protection (because the Germans wouldn't release the plans for that bit). Design development was still ongoing when war broke out, though they had started work on expanding the shipyards as the exist slips weren't big enough, they also needed to build a new commercial slip big enough to build a massive floating drydock, because the existing docks were also too small. Which tells you a lot about how much of a big leap they were over anything else the Dutch had previously built.

Maybe if they had stared in 1936 and gone to anyone other than Germany the ships might have been ready in time. But there was not the political will for that sort of decision and by the time the threat was obvious enough it was too late.
 

Captured Joe

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Yes, too little too late; same with the army and air force, really.
 

Bullfilter

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Have been catching up with the last couple of episodes and enjoying them, as always.
I'm deliberately not mentioning BREXIT as 1) I want to preserve this little group and 2) There are weird parallels to this story.
With Edward, I suppose his potential abdication would be called REXIT these days. :rolleyes: Just like any cover up scandal has -gate added to it, or something long gets -athon.

The tragic Neville-athon [;)] of vindictiveness, over-confidence, hubris and crestfallen failure begins, as all take their eyes off the actual danger none of them can really believe that tawdry little Hitler chap is (a barking buffoon to them in HOI3-speak, rather than the dangerous power-hungry demagogue he turns out to be).
 

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From what I can see, the election would need to be pretty snappy because the longer they wait the more Edward's men can meddle. British elections from the period were not, so far as I can tell, as 'lively' as American campaigns, but...

If the PM is declining in power, influence and health, and the government falls... just how much havoc could the King (through his men) cause by a public appeal - subtly and suitably phrased, of course - for support for his marriage expressed as a vote for a party sympathetic to his cause? Is there a precedent for an election going disastrously wrong (surely there is) and if it did... well, what if the 'odds and ends' were able to form a government after all?

And if the government falls, the election happens and no government can be formed because the party with the numbers won't accept leadership, then... how long does it rock on before someone cracks? If Edward won't give, then... someone else will bend, I think. Someone, sooner or later, will take his side in order to be PM. How the crisis goes would depend on who can do the most effective messaging and blaming...

No matter how confident Chamberlain and his associates are, I still think this can easily come unstuck. Many of the public (and Parliament) will not support him, not in the face of the disapproval of the Church - but many will.

The path that leads to Edward as King with Wallis at his side is a strange and perilous one, but he has a lot more leverage than these men seem to think.

But how strange that this is the thing that causes Edward to develop a backbone.
 

El Pip

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The path that leads to Edward as King with Wallis at his side is a strange and perilous one, but he has a lot more leverage than these men seem to think.
No, he does not. The election could go badly, but the main beneficiary would be the Labour vote. There was a small minority of the public personally sympathetic to Edward, but even they thought he should go because of the damage it would do to the Empire (the popular support and pride for the Empire pre war was ridiculously high) and that was before Wallis was a well known figure. Bear in mind almost everyone who met her (and didn't have fascist leanings) didn't like her, why on earth would the public be any different?

Let us say the Conservatives balls up the campaign, it cannot be on the issue of the King because Labour are running on the same policy and there just are not enough people in the country who like the idea of destroying the Empire and offending God so Edward can make his terrible marriage choice. Outside of that are the King's rabble will not have any other policy, due to the deep differences between them on every other subject - Tory backwoodsmen and Sinclair's Liberals are not natural bedfellows. With the Times, the BBC and most of the media on side (a couple of tabloids aside) those divisions will be blasted open during any election campaign.

So worst case it ends up a Conservative/Labour temporary coalition, they pass the Abdication Act, push it through the Lords (probably no need to use the Parliament Act, I suspect the Lords are on-side with this) and job done, George VI is now king. If Eddie wants to go with a modicum of dignity he will sign it, if he wants to be childishly pathetic to the end then George gives it royal assent as his first act. Parliament is Sovereign, they have the money, the power, the law and popular support on this, there is only one possible way it can end, hence why I think Edward would abdicate after losing the election and then tamely sign the Act. But if he doesn't, there is a tolerable backup plan even if people would rather not use it.

No doubt all this will have repercussions, if Eddie does not sign then Royal Assent will become even more of a sham than it is at the moment, consultation with the monarch more of a formality for protocol. It may even end up being abolished or delegated to Parliament somehow. A few new constitutional conventions will develop, though I doubt any will be passed into law (a decidedly foreign practice) and of course the Labour/Conservative coalition collapses the moment the abdication is sorted, but that would be expected.

But how strange that this is the thing that causes Edward to develop a backbone.
The actual strange thing is how Eddie is deviating from his constitutional role. OTL he always respected that, even at the end, and he did feel the weight of responsibility about protecting the institution. Right now he is skirting the issues and probably just the correct side of the line, but any attempt to intervene in an election, no matter how subtle or through 'friends', or to deny an election when requested would be massively out of character and have terrible repercussions for him and the monarchy.
 

TheButterflyComposer

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So worst case it ends up a Conservative/Labour temporary coalition, they pass the Abdication Act, push it through the Lords (probably no need to use the Parliament Act, I suspect the Lords are on-side with this) and job done, George VI is now king. If Eddie wants to go with a modicum of dignity he will sign it, if he wants to be childishly pathetic to the end then George gives it royal assent as his first act. Parliament is Sovereign, they have the money, the power, the law and popular support on this, there is only one possible way it can end, hence why I think Edward would abdicate after losing the election and then tamely sign the Act. But if he doesn't, there is a tolerable backup
I think you are forgetting Paradox Magic, which is much like Christmas Magic in that it comes in the last minute and resolves everything, usually in favour of revisionists. Remember the HOI4 event chain gets around this by him already being married and corinated when the decision fires. Then no word of his government makeup at all, aside from 'Kings Party' and the faces of Churchill, Llloyd George, and Mosley on the decision. He ends up as head of government though, so I'm not sure what happened next...

The actual strange thing is how Eddie is deviating from his constitutional role. OTL he always respected that, even at the end, and he did feel the weight of responsibility about protecting the institution. Right now he is skirting the issues and probably just the correct side of the line, but any attempt to intervene in an election, no matter how subtle or through 'friends', or to deny an election when requested would be massively out of character and have terrible repercussions for him and the monarchy.
Could he not be a little more mindful and not do this stupid thing in this stupid way?