Chapter XI: Peace or not, the Tiger prepares. (Part III)
Chapter XI: Peace or not, the Tiger prepares. (Part III)
“Nasser’s a thug. He needs to be taught a lesson.” – Aneurin Bevin.
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Moscow, RSFSR, USSR. ~ March 28th, 1958.“Nasser’s a thug. He needs to be taught a lesson.” – Aneurin Bevin.
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Llewellyn Thompson had been the American ambassador to the Soviet Union since last July, his predecessor had been Charles E. Bohlen, someone that had opposed Kennan’s proposals on foreign policy and the containment strategy he devised. Before being confirmed by the Senate, Thompson spent a pair of days talking to Bohlen and learning about the numerous events that took place at Moscow during his period as ambassador. Through Bohlen he had learnt that the actual Troika leading the Soviet Union was relatively unstable on its own, despite being purged from the public stage Nikita Khrushchev still had plenty of sympathizers within the party while at the same time more radical voices were demanding further steps to be taken.
Recent news from Washington showed the concern president Eisenhower had regarding the Soviet actions through the entire world, despite not being accurate at all a new picture of the Soviet Union had taken hold in the minds of the Western countries. Communism was practically seen as a monolithic entity, it didn’t matter if the subject at hand was regarding Chinese Communists, Indochinese, Russians, or even Arab nationalists: whichever regime had Moscow’s approval it certainly had to be Communist in one way or another. President Eisenhower was heavily worried about the current developments at the Middle East, he refused to believe that Nasser himself was a Communist, but he was certainly one of Moscow’s allies in the region: something had to be done.
With all the developments that had taken place through Eisenhower’s presidency, Thompson was certain that voters back at home would gracefully allow a Democrat administration to win the White House once the 1960 elections arrived. So far, the only easily recognizable achievements made by his administration were not even his to brag about, Korea’s success at repelling the Chinese invasion had shown the entire world the strength and courage of the Korean people: though it wouldn’t be enough if the Soviets eventually chose to support Beijing on their endeavors. The Soviet Union had been quiet on the international stage for months and Thompson was sure about the reasons, he had already reported back to the White House about the possible reshuffling of the current Soviet government.
He was at his office when he suddenly received the transcript of the most recent speech made by Kliment Voroshilov, nominally the head of the Troika leading the Soviet Union after Stalin’s death and the messy succession that followed back in 1953. The transcript also revealed what Thompson and Bohlen had feared about the Troika, anyone daring to criticize Stalin’s legacy was branded as a member of the “Anti-Party Group”, the new way to designate enemies of the Stalinist government. The man may had died five years ago, but his legacy and influence were certainly a permanent stain on the Soviet Union, the speech made by Voroshilov terminated Bulganin’s association with the Troika and instead swapped him for Vyacheslav Molotov: former minister of foreign affairs.
Voroshilov’s speech was quite contradictory regarding the status of the Troika that had led the Soviet Union since Stalin’s death back in 1953 and the succession crisis that followed it. Officially the three members of the Troika were himself, Georgy Malenkov, and Vyacheslav Molotov after Bulganin’s removal, but at the same time, his speech established himself as the sole authority within the Soviet Union, placing him on the center of the political arena. Therefore, after the “Stalinist Legacy Speech” everyone just recognized Voroshilov as the leader (de facto) of the Soviet Union; contemporary historians consider this speech the final event of what some have called the Soviet Succession Crisis of 1953.
External observers could be easily fooled regarding the newest events at Moscow, but Thompson knew way better than all of them. It seemed that Voroshilov was centralizing his hold on power, but reality was way different than that, some of Khrushchev’s sympathizers had just stayed silent ever since he failed to take power after Stalin’s death and they were now in key positions, individuals such as: Nikolai Dudorov, Rodion Malinovsky, Georgy Zhukov, Vasily Sokolovsky and the recently reintegrated Andrei Gromyko who now strongly opposed the Neo-Stalinist takeover of the Soviet Union. The “Anti-Party Group” would bide their time, waiting for the right opportunity to strike against the Stalinist methods that were starting to reappear in the USSR.
Recent news from Washington showed the concern president Eisenhower had regarding the Soviet actions through the entire world, despite not being accurate at all a new picture of the Soviet Union had taken hold in the minds of the Western countries. Communism was practically seen as a monolithic entity, it didn’t matter if the subject at hand was regarding Chinese Communists, Indochinese, Russians, or even Arab nationalists: whichever regime had Moscow’s approval it certainly had to be Communist in one way or another. President Eisenhower was heavily worried about the current developments at the Middle East, he refused to believe that Nasser himself was a Communist, but he was certainly one of Moscow’s allies in the region: something had to be done.
With all the developments that had taken place through Eisenhower’s presidency, Thompson was certain that voters back at home would gracefully allow a Democrat administration to win the White House once the 1960 elections arrived. So far, the only easily recognizable achievements made by his administration were not even his to brag about, Korea’s success at repelling the Chinese invasion had shown the entire world the strength and courage of the Korean people: though it wouldn’t be enough if the Soviets eventually chose to support Beijing on their endeavors. The Soviet Union had been quiet on the international stage for months and Thompson was sure about the reasons, he had already reported back to the White House about the possible reshuffling of the current Soviet government.
He was at his office when he suddenly received the transcript of the most recent speech made by Kliment Voroshilov, nominally the head of the Troika leading the Soviet Union after Stalin’s death and the messy succession that followed back in 1953. The transcript also revealed what Thompson and Bohlen had feared about the Troika, anyone daring to criticize Stalin’s legacy was branded as a member of the “Anti-Party Group”, the new way to designate enemies of the Stalinist government. The man may had died five years ago, but his legacy and influence were certainly a permanent stain on the Soviet Union, the speech made by Voroshilov terminated Bulganin’s association with the Troika and instead swapped him for Vyacheslav Molotov: former minister of foreign affairs.
Voroshilov’s speech was quite contradictory regarding the status of the Troika that had led the Soviet Union since Stalin’s death back in 1953 and the succession crisis that followed it. Officially the three members of the Troika were himself, Georgy Malenkov, and Vyacheslav Molotov after Bulganin’s removal, but at the same time, his speech established himself as the sole authority within the Soviet Union, placing him on the center of the political arena. Therefore, after the “Stalinist Legacy Speech” everyone just recognized Voroshilov as the leader (de facto) of the Soviet Union; contemporary historians consider this speech the final event of what some have called the Soviet Succession Crisis of 1953.
External observers could be easily fooled regarding the newest events at Moscow, but Thompson knew way better than all of them. It seemed that Voroshilov was centralizing his hold on power, but reality was way different than that, some of Khrushchev’s sympathizers had just stayed silent ever since he failed to take power after Stalin’s death and they were now in key positions, individuals such as: Nikolai Dudorov, Rodion Malinovsky, Georgy Zhukov, Vasily Sokolovsky and the recently reintegrated Andrei Gromyko who now strongly opposed the Neo-Stalinist takeover of the Soviet Union. The “Anti-Party Group” would bide their time, waiting for the right opportunity to strike against the Stalinist methods that were starting to reappear in the USSR.
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Nasser against imperialism. – Kateryna Ivanenko.
The success achieved by the Pan-Arabist forces both at Jordan and Iraq came as a shocking surprise to the United States and the United Kingdom, in just a pair of weeks wide swathes of land had suddenly joined the United Arab Republic project that had just started with Egypt and Syria at first. The expansion of the UAR renewed fears of Soviet influence increasing in the Middle East and soon Washington chose to act accordingly to deal with the new regional threat as it was starting to be considered; American troops were deployed to Lebanon following president Chamoun’s petition for support. The soldiers were tasked with securing key facilities at Beirut along providing help to manage the border with the UAR and stop the supplies flow from Syria into the country.
This quick reaction was privately condemned by Nasser, he felt that Lebanon had been on his grasp just to be taken away from him at the final minute. Unwilling to escalate the situation in Lebanon and risk a shootout with American soldiers Nasser relented on his support to the Muslim population of Lebanon for now, guns and ammunition kept flowing albeit at a slower and smaller pace. Instead, Nasser decided that Sudan had to be freed once and for all, not just to secure Egypt’s southern flank but also to provide another success to his supporters in the region against the imperialist and colonialist powers in the continent; supplies, advisors, and even volunteers were dispatched to Sudan through the span of March, hoping to dislodge Britain from their positions.
To understand how the Sudanese situation developed it is important to also acknowledge the unique individuals involved on these events, but before mentioning any of these characters it must be stated that the political trends within Sudan shifted through the years. Sudanese people at first resisted the idea of merging with Egypt, but after the United Kingdom refused to fulfill their word and the invasion plans against Egypt were leaked, it all started to go downhill: public opinion about Egypt also changed after spending more years as a British colony and due to the colonial authorities’ crackdowns and actions taken against liberation movements at Khartoum.
This quick reaction was privately condemned by Nasser, he felt that Lebanon had been on his grasp just to be taken away from him at the final minute. Unwilling to escalate the situation in Lebanon and risk a shootout with American soldiers Nasser relented on his support to the Muslim population of Lebanon for now, guns and ammunition kept flowing albeit at a slower and smaller pace. Instead, Nasser decided that Sudan had to be freed once and for all, not just to secure Egypt’s southern flank but also to provide another success to his supporters in the region against the imperialist and colonialist powers in the continent; supplies, advisors, and even volunteers were dispatched to Sudan through the span of March, hoping to dislodge Britain from their positions.
To understand how the Sudanese situation developed it is important to also acknowledge the unique individuals involved on these events, but before mentioning any of these characters it must be stated that the political trends within Sudan shifted through the years. Sudanese people at first resisted the idea of merging with Egypt, but after the United Kingdom refused to fulfill their word and the invasion plans against Egypt were leaked, it all started to go downhill: public opinion about Egypt also changed after spending more years as a British colony and due to the colonial authorities’ crackdowns and actions taken against liberation movements at Khartoum.
- Ismail al-Azhari: he began his political career and eventually reached the post of prime minister within Sudan before the official independence by 1958, his main stance was unity with Egypt though after the population showed their disapproval on this position, he reversed it. He supported a parliamentary system such as the British one and he was heavily interested in integrating the southern population (black and non-Muslim) into the more Arab and Muslim one from the north of the country. He was heavily popular at first, but he eventually lost popularity due to Nasser’s successes, British excesses and his apparent sympathy and closeness to the British political stances.
- Abdallah Khalil: once he got into power within British Sudan, he attempted to normalize relations with Egypt despite Sudan still being a British colony, his proximity to colonial authorities played against him after anti-British sentiment spiked. He focused mostly on stabilizing the south and establishing a permanent constitution for the eventual withdrawal of the British, but he also encouraged economic development and improving relations with Egypt. He was in power for almost eighteen months, but the latter half of his presidency was hijacked by bribery and corruption scandals, contributing to the eventual shift of Sudanese opinions regarding Egypt.
- Ibrahim Abboud: Public support for Khalil faltered mostly due to the corruption scandals and the impressive successes achieved by the United Arab Republic under Nasser, along the growing violence employed by British authorities against independentist movements, protests and strikes. Ibrahim Abboud wasn’t interested on merging the country with Egypt, but after the revolutions took hold in Amman and Baghdad, he was able to identify which way the wind was blowing and soon Nasser’s men and guns were arriving to the country.
Due to the growing instability at Sudan, the British officially withdrew from the country on April 2nd, leaving behind Abdallah Khalil as the president of the newly independent Sudan. The British had not finished packing up when unexpected developments took them by surprise once again, Ibrahim Abboud (commander in chief of the Sudanese military) along officers with Nasserist sympathies moved against Khartoum to oust the government led by Khalil claiming it was not only corrupt but also a puppet for the interests of the United Kingdom. On April 18th, the coup was finalized, Ibrahim Abboud was named as the new president of the Republic of Sudan, and he immediately contacted Cairo to establish talks with Nasser.
It must be mentioned that Ibrahim Abboud’s negotiating position was a weak one, having forcefully removed the government left behind by the British way before their withdrawal had concluded practically humiliated London one more time: burning any possible bridges to Sudanese-British reproachment. Therefore, despite Ibrahim Abboud’s attempts he failed to convince Nasser of allowing Sudan into the UAR with some degree of autonomy, he knew force wouldn’t be needed though he nonetheless preemptively mobilized part of the army in case the British made attempts to contact Abboud or they moved on their own. Without any possible aid coming from other countries, Ibrahim Abboud flew to Cairo and ratified the agreement indicating Sudanese integration within the United Arab Republic.
It must be mentioned that Ibrahim Abboud’s negotiating position was a weak one, having forcefully removed the government left behind by the British way before their withdrawal had concluded practically humiliated London one more time: burning any possible bridges to Sudanese-British reproachment. Therefore, despite Ibrahim Abboud’s attempts he failed to convince Nasser of allowing Sudan into the UAR with some degree of autonomy, he knew force wouldn’t be needed though he nonetheless preemptively mobilized part of the army in case the British made attempts to contact Abboud or they moved on their own. Without any possible aid coming from other countries, Ibrahim Abboud flew to Cairo and ratified the agreement indicating Sudanese integration within the United Arab Republic.
With no one to guarantee Sudan's independence, Ibrahim Abboud was left cornered and with no options than submitting to Cairo.
Sudanese independence lasted almost an entire month, but by April’s end it was officially another republic within the United Arab Republic. The United Kingdom, France and the United States had been relieved after the Lebanese situation stabilized following the deployment of American soldiers to Beirut, but after the swift annexation of Sudan into the UAR fears spiked once more, Gamal Abdel Nasser was certainly seen as the statesman of the decade. However, not everything was going good within the UAR, the quick integration of Jordan, Iraq and Sudan had left some kind of administrative void to be filled; Nasser was able to recognize that pulling up the same card he did with Syria was untenable, despite Cairo being the capital of the UAR it was evident that not everything could be handled from Cairo: reorganization and reforms were needed if the UAR was meant to be something more than a paper tiger.
Each of the new member republics posed a challenge of their own:
Each of the new member republics posed a challenge of their own:
- Syria: a relatively strong Communist movement existed at the country and at the same time there were some Baathist politicians that opposed the unification with Egypt, there were other politicians and officers resenting Nasser’s decision to treat Syria as another Egyptian province. Economic challenges were also present at the Arab Republic of Syria, though in reality each constituent member faced them in one way or another.
- Iraq: Abdul Salam Arif was viewed as an existential threat by Nasser, he knew he was loyal to the Pan-Arabist dream, but his strong position within Iraqi society could be a threat to his own cult of personality within the UAR. At the same time, Iraq also had a native Communist movement of their own and supporters of Qasim could also be a threat due to their nationalism focused on Iraq. Despite the wealth that Iraq could provide to the UAR it was also recognized that the oil riches would only be profitable with the right investment both in technologies and capital, Nasser was unwilling to rely even more on the Soviet Union but apparently restarting operations and improving them would require some assistance from Moscow.
- Jordan: Ali Abu Nuwar’s failure to overthrow the Hashemite monarchy was an important sign of the challenges the country awaited them, Bedouin resistance was still raging on, and it was probably supplied by Saudi Arabia. Despite the continued resistance shown by the Bedouin tribes there was another group of people that could provide a challenge for Cairo’s designs in the region: the Palestinians. After 1948 plenty of Palestinians had taken refuge at Egypt, Syria, and Jordan: with the sudden expansion of the UAR almost everyone in the region thought it to be a strong power capable of enduring a war against Israel, plenty of Palestinians saw in the UAR a way to recover their homes and their lands.
- Sudan: Fortunately enough for Nasser the Sudanese population received the annexation positively, Ibrahim Abboud’s position was quite weakened after the coup the country underwent. However, there were still plenty of challenges ahead, economically the country was faring poorly, and the south was still unstable due to resistance to the projects envisioned by Khartoum. Sudan had plenty of potential, but it was also identified as one of the most probable sources of difficulties in the future of the UAR.
The influence of Nasserism and the Pan-Arabist ideals didn’t stop there, having incorporated Sudan into the United Arab Republic soon new Free Officers Movements appeared through the region following the model established by the Iraqi Nasserists. They didn’t look to Cairo for guidance nor were they centralized to one agency or department, the only cohesion and unity among them was their will to fight for the Nasserist ideals. In some countries the Nasserists were strongly opposed and had a hard time propagating their ideas and messages, though in countries like Libya and Yemen they found receptive audiences at selective social and nationalist circles. With the French managing to pacify most of coastal Algeria and eliminating numerous independence leaders, the few ones left scattered through the Middle East, most of them ending up at the UAR.
Nasser wanted to finally put some distance between him and Moscow, fearing that alienating the United States too much could prove counterproductive to his regional plans, but he also knew that the Soviets would be the only ones to provide the assistance the United Arab Republic would need for some time before strengthening itself. However, he couldn’t blindly trust Moscow; there could be other threats to his power such as Arif but the recent change regarding the Soviet Troika was also another reason to distrust the Soviet Union. With Communist movements active in the Middle East, Moscow could certainly find appealing the idea of changing the regime at Cairo to one more suitable to their interests and ideological stances. Nasser was thrown into the unenviable position of being between a rock and a hard place.
Nasser wanted to finally put some distance between him and Moscow, fearing that alienating the United States too much could prove counterproductive to his regional plans, but he also knew that the Soviets would be the only ones to provide the assistance the United Arab Republic would need for some time before strengthening itself. However, he couldn’t blindly trust Moscow; there could be other threats to his power such as Arif but the recent change regarding the Soviet Troika was also another reason to distrust the Soviet Union. With Communist movements active in the Middle East, Moscow could certainly find appealing the idea of changing the regime at Cairo to one more suitable to their interests and ideological stances. Nasser was thrown into the unenviable position of being between a rock and a hard place.
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Havana, Cuba. ~ July 12th, 1958. It was the fifth day with the city almost entirely paralyzed, the current Cuban government had ordered casinos and brothels to be immediately shut down due to their “corrupting influence on the Cuban people”, having taken this decision without proper economic considerations led to numerous families losing their income and jobs: those unemployed workers were now paralyzing Havana demanding the resignation of the president or at least economic support to maintain their families. That decision had been heavily opposed by Fidel Castro, leader of the Movimiento 26 de Julio, he insisted that shutting down those businesses without ensuring the workers would be compensated or allowing them to get new jobs first would cause great harm.
When the Etapa Dual phase of the Cuban Revolution began (Dual Stage), Fidel Castro lacked influence within the new Cuban government mostly due to the position of his forces when Batista was murdered, and the regime toppled. Slowly but steadily, he had managed to increase his influence at the capital, the recent blunders made by the president had allowed him to gain more popularity with the affected workers, contributing to the strengthening of the Movimiento 26 de Julio in local elections. National elections were still long way ahead, but at least recent democratic experiments at Havana had shown him performing strongly in comparison to president Urrutia’s party. Originally Castro had been opposed to elections, considering that allowing the other parties to run would mean a return to the corrupt politics that gave way to Batista’s dictatorship, though thanks to Ernesto “Che” Guevara his stance changed; if the old parties performed poorly, it would mean the validation of Castro’s vision and if he himself achieved a victory it would be even better.
President Urrutia along other factions with the mixed government were slowly sidelining him from the government, decisions were taken without the input from the M-26-7 and rumors were spreading about impending government action against the strikers at Havana. Moderate members within his movement insisted on keeping up the cooperation, though luckily for him those were a tiny minority, most of the members acknowledged and recognized the actions of Urrutia could eventually allow the return of some military strongman such as Batista. While the Directorio Revolucionario Estudiantil (Student Revolutionary Directorate), demobilized itself and stopped supporting violent actions, Castro’s movement did the opposite: supplies were moved into key positions within important cities such as Havana, propaganda efforts were made to gain the loyalty within the peripheries and soldiers kept training for further conflict.
“This Dual Stage is nothing but a blatant lie”, said Fidel angrily to his brother Raul. “Urrutia and the others are just wolves in lamb clothing, I told them there would be consequences.”
Raul just sat there, silently staring at Fidel, wondering what else would’ve to be done to finally free the Cuban people from the oppression they had endured for so long. When Batista died everyone at the island rejoiced, everyone thought it was the beginning of a clear and shiny future for the Caribbean nation: how wrong were they. What if Fidel was right? What if the revolution had been betrayed before succeeding itself?
President Eisenhower’s attention had been mostly placed on the Middle East and Southeast Asia due to recent developments, but no one of importance at Washington had stopped watching the political developments occurring in Cuba. Questions were made about the political alignment of Fidel Castro and his movement, but the answers were unclear, was he a Communist or just a Cuban worried about his fellow countrymen? It would take more time to determine the answer to that question, though plans had to be made, plans could always be made, if they didn’t require them to be executed that would be great, but if they did, well, at least they would have the appropriate plans.
When the Etapa Dual phase of the Cuban Revolution began (Dual Stage), Fidel Castro lacked influence within the new Cuban government mostly due to the position of his forces when Batista was murdered, and the regime toppled. Slowly but steadily, he had managed to increase his influence at the capital, the recent blunders made by the president had allowed him to gain more popularity with the affected workers, contributing to the strengthening of the Movimiento 26 de Julio in local elections. National elections were still long way ahead, but at least recent democratic experiments at Havana had shown him performing strongly in comparison to president Urrutia’s party. Originally Castro had been opposed to elections, considering that allowing the other parties to run would mean a return to the corrupt politics that gave way to Batista’s dictatorship, though thanks to Ernesto “Che” Guevara his stance changed; if the old parties performed poorly, it would mean the validation of Castro’s vision and if he himself achieved a victory it would be even better.
President Urrutia along other factions with the mixed government were slowly sidelining him from the government, decisions were taken without the input from the M-26-7 and rumors were spreading about impending government action against the strikers at Havana. Moderate members within his movement insisted on keeping up the cooperation, though luckily for him those were a tiny minority, most of the members acknowledged and recognized the actions of Urrutia could eventually allow the return of some military strongman such as Batista. While the Directorio Revolucionario Estudiantil (Student Revolutionary Directorate), demobilized itself and stopped supporting violent actions, Castro’s movement did the opposite: supplies were moved into key positions within important cities such as Havana, propaganda efforts were made to gain the loyalty within the peripheries and soldiers kept training for further conflict.
“This Dual Stage is nothing but a blatant lie”, said Fidel angrily to his brother Raul. “Urrutia and the others are just wolves in lamb clothing, I told them there would be consequences.”
Raul just sat there, silently staring at Fidel, wondering what else would’ve to be done to finally free the Cuban people from the oppression they had endured for so long. When Batista died everyone at the island rejoiced, everyone thought it was the beginning of a clear and shiny future for the Caribbean nation: how wrong were they. What if Fidel was right? What if the revolution had been betrayed before succeeding itself?
President Eisenhower’s attention had been mostly placed on the Middle East and Southeast Asia due to recent developments, but no one of importance at Washington had stopped watching the political developments occurring in Cuba. Questions were made about the political alignment of Fidel Castro and his movement, but the answers were unclear, was he a Communist or just a Cuban worried about his fellow countrymen? It would take more time to determine the answer to that question, though plans had to be made, plans could always be made, if they didn’t require them to be executed that would be great, but if they did, well, at least they would have the appropriate plans.
During the Dual Stage it was supposed that Fidel Castro would participate in government decisions, though in reality he was basically used by the new regime as a token of goodwill with the population that supported him; a situation he basically accepted since his forces weren't close enough to Havana at the right time.
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Okay so, here is today's part of the chapter.
Glad to say this is the final part of this chapter, you may have noticed we are ending the chapter way too early for the year but the other events will be covered up in an interlude. ^^
I have been a bit busy with classes and personal projects so I apologize, though I must say I'm kinda editing a mod I found to portray a bit of the modern day in this timeline. Anyways... also want to post a tiny spoiler.
So as you can see, we are having some interesting developments in the Soviet Union and Egypt has certainly turned into some kind of lucky creature in this world; though there are still plenty of challenges ahead for them. Meanwhile, Korea is continuing on the road of army modernization; the border war with China showed us something... We can clearly beat the PLA but in order to do so decisively we need to have superior equipment, training and mobility, otherwise their numbers can overwhelm us brutally.
Take care, hope you enjoy it!
Glad to say this is the final part of this chapter, you may have noticed we are ending the chapter way too early for the year but the other events will be covered up in an interlude. ^^
I have been a bit busy with classes and personal projects so I apologize, though I must say I'm kinda editing a mod I found to portray a bit of the modern day in this timeline. Anyways... also want to post a tiny spoiler.
So as you can see, we are having some interesting developments in the Soviet Union and Egypt has certainly turned into some kind of lucky creature in this world; though there are still plenty of challenges ahead for them. Meanwhile, Korea is continuing on the road of army modernization; the border war with China showed us something... We can clearly beat the PLA but in order to do so decisively we need to have superior equipment, training and mobility, otherwise their numbers can overwhelm us brutally.
Take care, hope you enjoy it!
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