Tronjer said:
And you also should take into account that not everybody who purchases a game will register and sign up at boards. Actually this is rather a minority. Pd brings like 2 titles (including expansions) a year and probably has the largest community considering small indie publishers So if they can't earn their livings, who else could ?
People who have the sense to make games for the larger market, not for a segment of their existing fanbase.
Again, that's what it all boils down to. EVEN assuming a large portion of dedicated fanbase isn't registered here, they still remain a small group. It's also a small group that will LOSE members. People stop playing Paradox games, because they lose interest, because they don't have time anymore, because they die.
In order to continue making a profit, Paradox needs to lure new players to replace the players it lose. That means making the game attractive to newcomers.
Now, you could say "well, they could rely on word of mouth among established strategy communities". But that's a dicey proposal at best, because it's entirely dependant on how your fanbase react to the game.
At this point, I simply refer you back to the first, oh, six months of posts on the Europa III forums. Or the Rome forums. Or...well, pretty much every Paradox game under the sun. The reaction are almost always overwhelmingly negative, because Paradox fans expect so much more than they get - always.
Trying to satisfy this sort of fanbase is an exercise in futility - because the more time and money you spend on the game, the more their expectations mount, much faster than what you can add to the game. Relying on them for word-of-mouth publicity, in the critical first few months of the game, is an exercise in economic suicide.
So Paradox has to make a game that's likely to look interesting to new players, to garner good ratings in the gaming press (and that REQUIRES a tolerable learning curve). In short, a game that's likely to bring in new players all by itself.
Then, once the game has sold (very) well, they can turn back to the fanbase for that new game, see what they want, and put it (if its economically reasonable) in expansions. That's because only fans buy expansions anyway (because, you know, they have to already own the original game already)