Spain: Probably, I think. It would probably have lost northern spain as an annexation to France.
Oh really and more you suggest a sattalite and would the French have wanted it .Remember French losses in Spain were HUGE in total greater than the Russian debacle...and in Spains case these were nearly all French troops not allied forces.Furthur losses were not the result of the British Army or even the Spanish army for that matter.But a relentless continous partisan war that never abated or halted.Though at times the Spanish establishment accepted the Napoleanic system the people of Spain didnt.And that showed no signs of changing..so would france really continue to desire this *spanish Ulcer* could they even afford it.They controlled the Cities outside and at night the French army moved in fear.
Napolean was never able to fully subdue Royalist areas of France even at the height of his power never mind foreign areas.
Though the Battles of Smolensk and Borodino etc are Grand spectacles in the Russian campaign.Again the continous harassing of patrols supply lines by Cossacks and other irregulars can be shown to have as great effect on Napoleans defeat as his less than capable management.
if you give Spain to France do trust the attrition rates are suitably huge.