As the map stands they can't form Russia (need to own/core Tver or Yaroslavl and Smolensk or Chernigov and they have 0/4).
The ai doesn't really seem to prioritise any of the nation formation decisions from what I've seen
Really? Maybe it's just me but I've been seeing a lot of year 1 Savoyard wars of aggression against Sardinia ever since Sardinia-Piedmont became formable..