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knul

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A question that returns now and again is how to compose armies. How many cavalry regiments should I use? Is artillery useful? When should I start using artillery in battle?

To better answer these questions, I did some analysis on the damage the various regiments do for all the tech levels. So I took the data from the files of my DW copy, copied them into a spreadsheet and started doing some calculations.

Besides inf, cav and art, I consider artillery firing from behind infantry and its supported infantry regiment as one "unit", which I call inf+art. The reason for this is that during combat the inf and art units basically fight as one unit as long as the inf has morale, after which the unit "transforms" into a regular art unit.

Total modifier comparison

First, I charted the fire and shock modifiers:

eu3modifierchart.png

This graphs show for each of the four different unit types the sum of their shock and fire modifiers. For the inf+art unit I added the total modifier of the inf unit plus half of the art unit, as artillery firing from the second row does half damage.

I have divided the chart into four areas, one for each increase in the "Military Tactics" parameter, to give you a feel with which years the tech level correspond. I must remind you that the blue and green areas cover about 75% of the Grand Campaign, so while the orange and red areas cover more than half the graph, the period covered by those techs is only a century in total, with the red area even covering only about 20 years.

As you can see, cavalry will have double the total modifier infantry has pretty much the entire game until about tech level 55 (year 1790), after which the difference decreases.

Frontline artillery (yellow line) does not become significantly stronger than infantry until tech level 35 (year 1709) and only become as strong as cavalry around tech level 40 (year 1727). After tech level 52 (year 1775) artillery becomes stronger than cavalry.

Inf+art is during Era 2 a unit which strength lies halfway between cavalry and infantry and becomes as strong as frontline artillery around tech level 40 (yer 1727), after which inf+art and frontline artillery remain equally strong.

So in conclusion, cavalry is the strongest unit by far until 1700 and only begins to be outclassed by frontline artillery and inf+art after 1775.

Calculating casualties

However, the above analysis only takes the fire and shock modifiers into account, but there are more factors. So in the next step I take into account the "pips" units have, the offensive/defensive shock/fire pips. I will only look at casualties caused: I leave out morale damage.

I calculate casualties based on the formula from the wiki: http://www.paradoxian.org/eu3wiki/Military#Casualties

What I did is that for each tech level I selected one infantry, cavalry and artillery unit from the Western tech group, based on the following criteria:
  • Infantry: the unit with the most pips, if equal the unit with the most defensive shock pips.
  • Cavalry: the unit with the most offensive shock pips, if equal the unit with the most pips.
  • Artillery: the unit with the most offensive fire pips, if equal the unit with the most pips.

I then calculate the casualties the four different unit type do against infantry with the formula:

Y = (4,5 + OF - DF) * FM +(4,5 + OS - DS) * SM

where
Y is casualties
OF is offensive fire of the unit
DF is defensive fire of the infantry unit
FM is the fire modifier
OS is offensive shock of the unit
DS is defensive shock of the infantry unit
SM is the shock modifier

The 4,5 is the average result of a 0-9 die roll. Note that I have made the following assumptions:

  • There are an equal number of fire and shock phases
  • No terrain modifiers
  • Both side have no leaders / have equal leaders

As artillery from the second row does half damage, the damage done by the inf+art unit is calculated by taking the inf damage as calculated by the above formula and add half of artillery damage, likewise calculated.

So in the next sections I will show the results of these casualty calculations of all four unit types against infantry.

Damage vs infantry

eu3dmgvsinfchart.png


This graph shows how much damage each of the four units do againt infantry of the same tech level (all units are from the Western tech group). As you can see, the graph is quite different than the total modifier graph. Let me walk your through the graph era by era.

Era 1
All units' damage drop at tech level 11. That's because at that level Condotta Infantry become available, which has defensive shock 3, a great upgrade compared to the Longbow's defensive shock 1. Artillery at the end of the age is quite strong against infantry because of its many pips (8 in total vs 4 for inf and 1 for cav).

Also note that while cav shock modifier rises in this period, cav damage versus infantry remains level, as infantry gets more pips while cavalry remains the same.

Era 2
While at the start cavalry and artillery are equally damaging, cavalry makes a huge jump at tech level 22 as Latin Caracole Cavalry is available. The introduction of Highlanders Infantry hugely increase inf vs inf damage at tech level 28 (year 1636).

Cavalry is by far the most deadly unit versus infantry until tech level 35 (year 1700), where inf+art becomes as deadly as cavalry because of the introduction of both Caroline Infantry and Coehorn Mortars. Note that inf+art is much stronger than frontline art, due to that most of its damage comes from the inf part.

Era 3
Until tech level 43 (year 1735), cavalry and inf+art are equally dominating. With tech level 43 comes the Redcoat infantry, who has 4 more fire defense pips and 2 more shock defensie pips than its predecessor, Caroline Infantry. This means that all damage against infantry is drastically reduced, especially artillery.

Artillery becomes again very lethal with the introduction of Royal Mortars at tech level 47 (year 1750). Cavalry makes a huge jump at tech level 52 (year 1780) with Latin Cuirassiers (4 more offensive shock than before).

Square Infantry at tech level 55 (year 1790) again greatly reduces infantry casualties. Artillery becomes immensely deadly after that drop due to increasing fire modifier and the introduction of Flying Battery (+2 offensive fire compared to Royal Mortars).

Era 4
Surprisingly, from tech level 59 (year 1798) until the end, cavalry is much more deadly to infantry than inf+art or frontline artillery, even with the much higher fire modifier for artillery. That is because
  • Napoleonic Square infantry has defensive fire 11 and defensive shock 9, meaning that it can defend itself much better against artillery than against cavalry
  • Napoleonic Lancers have offensive shock 11, while Flying Battery has offensive fire 8.
This means that cavalry versus infantry has an average modified die roll of 4,5 + 11 - 9 = 6,5 while artillery has an average modified die roll of 4,5 + 8 - 11 = 1,5.

Even with its fire modifier twice as high as cavalry's shock modifier, the balance is heavily in favour of cavalry.

Preliminary conclusion

To my surprise, the pips are much more important than I thought. While units from the same tech level differ very little from each other (Redcoats are not that much stronger than Bluecoats, for example), the pips do significantly determine casualties, having maybe even more influence than fire and shock modifiers.

In short, cavalry remains king of the battlefield until 1700, after which it's equal to inf+art. After 1798 cavalry again becomes the strongest unit by far.

Based on this, I cautiously conclude that on featureless terrain without leaders, artillery (in the form of inf+art) is never really worth its cost against infantry as cavalry always does more or equal damage and costs much less in both manpower and maintenance. Armies should have as much cavalry as possible with enough infantry to provide the Military Tactics bonus.

However, I need to do more analysis to back up this conclusion and maybe find out some new conclusion. As this takes a lot of time, I would like to know if there is any interest in doing so. If nobody cares about this, I'll just let it rest.



Any comments or questions?
 
Last edited:

unmerged(288807)

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That is indeed a very interesting analysis. If your data is correct, then paradox would have to re-balance the artillery to either be cheaper or more effective. Except for that well done. I especially appreciate it since i hate maths :D.
 

Junuxx

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Wow, that's a great job! Could you share the Excel sheet please?

As for comments...

- Artillery behind inf takes reduced damage, right? Later in a battle when many regiments have only a fraction of their strength left this could become of decisive importance. This property of artillery is also useful to help keeping a damaged army alive after retreating.

- I know you disregarded terrain penalties and that's fine, but keep in mind that cavalry suffers twice the normal terrain/river penalties.

- You might want to mention that the second graph concerns Western unit types only
 
Last edited:

knul

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That is indeed a very interesting analysis. If your data is correct, then paradox would have to re-balance the artillery to either be cheaper or more effective. Except for that well done. I especially appreciate it since i hate maths :D.

Good to hear that a fellow math-hater likes this analysis. But before we bash Paradox, be reminded that I have only analysed the amount of damage done against infantry. As infantry and especially inf+art has more defensive pips than cavalry most of the game, it could turn out that while cavalry can dish out damage, it cannot take it. Besides, I'm quite sure that the Paradox developers have done some analysis on their own model instead of just randomly assigning numbers, so I assume the units are balanced in some way.

In fact, I'm starting to think that perhaps the role for artillery is in mountainous and hilly terrain, where cavalry is much weaker. If inf+art is stronger than cavalry when terrain modifiers are a factor, maybe that's where the balance lies: cavalry armies for the lowlands and artillery armies for the highlands?
 

knul

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Wow, that's a great job! Could you share the Excel sheet please?
I tried to upload the file as an attachement, but it says "invalid file", any idea how I can solve that?

Also, I use Openoffice so while it can convert to an Excel format, it could go wrong a bit.

As for comments...

- Artillery behind inf takes reduced damage, right? Later in a battle when many regiments have only a fraction of their strength left this could become of decisive importance. This property of artillery is also useful to help keeping a damaged army alive after retreating.
The analysis so far has only looked at how much casualties infantry suffers when fighting with any of the four units. It takes another analysis to see how much damage each unit does against inf+art.

- I know you disregarded terrain penalties and that's fine, but keep in mind that cavalry suffers twice the normal terrain/river penalties.
I know, that's why this is a limited analysis. :) So far I've only shown that on flat terrain cavalry does the best damage. The questions remain if cavalry does take damage well enough to remain dominant and if cavalry is useful in less than perfect conditions.

Also, I've diregarded other factors such as the fact that shock leaders are easier to get than fire leaders (two sliders instead of one giving a bonus). But if I start analysisng all the factors I could write a small book :)

At least it shows that the combat model of EU3 is quite complex :p

- You might want to mention that the second graph concerns Western unit types only
I've mentioned in the "calculating casualties" section that I only use Western tech units, but I guess it could hurt to mention it again in the section thereafter.
 

knul

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Artillery doesn't have a penalty really from terrain (I think). Also artillery does other things like smash forts. Have you taken into account though that all artillery fires even though its not in the front rank and cavalry/infantry have to be in the front rank to actually do damage?
Yes, the damage calculation of inf+art is simply adding the infantry damage plus half of the artillery damage. I will add this fact to the "Calculating casualties" section.
 

unmerged(288807)

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Good to hear that a fellow math-hater likes this analysis. But before we bash Paradox, be reminded that I have only analysed the amount of damage done against infantry. As infantry and especially inf+art has more defensive pips than cavalry most of the game, it could turn out that while cavalry can dish out damage, it cannot take it. Besides, I'm quite sure that the Paradox developers have done some analysis on their own model instead of just randomly assigning numbers, so I assume the units are balanced in some way.

In fact, I'm starting to think that perhaps the role for artillery is in mountainous and hilly terrain, where cavalry is much weaker. If inf+art is stronger than cavalry when terrain modifiers are a factor, maybe that's where the balance lies: cavalry armies for the lowlands and artillery armies for the highlands?

True that. It would be interesting to see the graph with different terrain types.
 

Junuxx

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The analysis so far has only looked at how much casualties infantry suffers when fighting with any of the four units. It takes another analysis to see how much damage each unit does against inf+art.

But the thing is, in a battle both sides take damage, impairing their ability to inflict further damage. The artillery behind inf is unafflicted because the infantry serves as a meatshield. Therefore, where cav loses battlepower and life in equal proportions, inf+art does not.
 

Marconius

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While this analysis really is quite interesting (and I say that know very little about the intricacies of the EU3 combat system) there are a few points where I see issues.

1) First and foremost, you added together the shock and fire values of the various units... now again, I'm not expert at the EU3 combat system, but it is my understand cavalry typically has little to no fire rating (certainly not as much as artillery or infantry), but makes up for it by having a high shock value. The reason I bring this up is that combat is divided into two phases, shock and fire; I'm not sure simply summing up the pips creates realistic results.

2) You chose specific units for each statistic. I understand this was done to make your tables simpler and clearer, however, I question the wisdom of this decision. For example, you picked the cavalry units with the most offensive shock; while this makes sense from a certain point of view, overall it may not be the choice of many players, as they'd fear their cavalry would take too many casualties, especially in the fire phase.

3) I'm actually not quite clear on what the first chart displays. You write shock+fire, does this mean offensive, defensive or both summed up? Also, you say you treat inf+art as a single unit, yet they are two units in the actual game; so essentially, when testing an "inf" army against and "inf+art" army, the latter is twice the size... that doesn't seem very fair.

4) You don't really elaborate on an issue I'm often having... the time between getting new infantry units and new cavalry units (or artillery); since new unit types tend to be a rather significant leap in overall ability, the era between getting Redcoat Infantry (tech 43) and Latin Cuirassiers (tech 52) is a period where different army compositions may be worth looking into. This effect seems to cause a few sudden jumps in your charts (most notably in the second one).

At any rate, this is a very informative collection of data that was interesting to read. Looking at the stuff you collected though, in conclusion it seems that one would need to constantly reform and change one's army composition to stay strong... then form it back to the older model, because it's suddenly more poweful again. Really just doesn't feel like it's worth all the trouble!
 

Johhog

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Wait. A LIMITED analysis?

:D
 

Foelsgaard

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3) I'm actually not quite clear on what the first chart displays. You write shock+fire, does this mean offensive, defensive or both summed up? Also, you say you treat inf+art as a single unit, yet they are two units in the actual game; so essentially, when testing an "inf" army against and "inf+art" army, the latter is twice the size... that doesn't seem very fair.

For pure damage, it's actually a fair comparison. 10 inf and 10 art takes up just as much space on the frontline as 10 inf or cav.

For overall battle winning capability, it's not sufficient of course.
 

Kentti

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Well I have a few points that need to be taken into consideration.

1) Terrain. Cavalry takes double the penalties, pretty simple.

2) Dice rolls. Cavalry relies almost entirely on shock phase for its damage, while infantry's damage utilises both fire and shock. In practice this means that cavalry is dependant on one roll while infantry profits from both rolls. While cavalry will deal very high damage on good rolls, it will deal almost naught if it gets bad shock rolls.

3) Casualties. As the game progresses, the cavalry will start taking more and more casualties in overall when compared to infantry. Taking more casualties means making less damage, so cavalry is skrewed it it doesn't get goood rolls right at the start. This can be very devastating if infantry gets good roll on the first fire-phase.

Cavalry doesn't look so superior anymore, eh? :D
(Especially after that movement speed reduction which killed cavalrys strategic superiority)
 

tului

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On the combined arms tactic bonus, for tech groups that aren't Western, I notice that even when I'm at what should be a tactics bonus ratio, well past 50/50 for muslims, that I still see red numbers on my cav units. Am I getting the bonus or not?
 

knul

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True that. It would be interesting to see the graph with different terrain types.
I see what I can do. For now I do the same analysis for damage against cavalry and inf+art (probably not art as frontline art is quite rare in SP).

But the thing is, in a battle both sides take damage, impairing their ability to inflict further damage. The artillery behind inf is unafflicted because the infantry serves as a meatshield. Therefore, where cav loses battlepower and life in equal proportions, inf+art does not.
Damn, didn't think of that. Still, I have no idea how much attack power is lost with losses (is it linear?). Besides, it would be too complicated for me to factor that in.

I guess we have to accept that this analysis is indeed quite limited and that any conclusions drawn from it must be watched with some suspicion.

While this analysis really is quite interesting (and I say that know very little about the intricacies of the EU3 combat system) there are a few points where I see issues.

1) First and foremost, you added together the shock and fire values of the various units... now again, I'm not expert at the EU3 combat system, but it is my understand cavalry typically has little to no fire rating (certainly not as much as artillery or infantry), but makes up for it by having a high shock value. The reason I bring this up is that combat is divided into two phases, shock and fire; I'm not sure simply summing up the pips creates realistic results.
I did not sum up the pips: I used the casualty formula from the wiki, as descirbed in the "calculating casualties" section. I even mention that I assume an equal amount of fire and shock phases, which is not structly true in almost all situations but was a necessary simplification.

2) You chose specific units for each statistic. I understand this was done to make your tables simpler and clearer, however, I question the wisdom of this decision. For example, you picked the cavalry units with the most offensive shock; while this makes sense from a certain point of view, overall it may not be the choice of many players, as they'd fear their cavalry would take too many casualties, especially in the fire phase.
Funny enough, the cavalry with the highest offensive shock has quite good defence, so that's not a big problem. The only choices are at level 36 and 52/53. Arme Blache Cavalry has better fire defence than its competitors and equal shock defence. Latin Cuirassiers has better shock defence than its competitors and while it has -2 fire defence compared to the best competitor, it has +4 shock offence, a very good trade IMO.

With artillery there is very little choice: after level 15 there is only one option for each level. With infantry you could indeed argue if my choices are that good. However, taking the infantry with the most fire and shock pips is not a bad strategy and by selecting highest defensive shock I have biased the analysis against cavalry, making the claim in the conclusion a bit stronger.

And yes, the choice of unit will remain a problem, as it would take too much work to take any combination of units into account. But still, I don't think it's that much of a problem.

3) I'm actually not quite clear on what the first chart displays. You write shock+fire, does this mean offensive, defensive or both summed up?
It's simply the sum of the fire and shock modifier of each unit, with inf+art being the sum of inf modifers and half the art modifiers.

Also, you say you treat inf+art as a single unit, yet they are two units in the actual game; so essentially, when testing an "inf" army against and "inf+art" army, the latter is twice the size... that doesn't seem very fair.
The analysis is indeed about how much damage you can do in one piece of battlefront. The whole reason for inf+art existence is that it has a higher concentration of firepower per piece of battlefront, so I don't really see why it would be unfair to see it as a single unit for casualty calculation.

It does have indeed a higher BWA due to more bodies. I will think about how to factor that into the analysises.

4) You don't really elaborate on an issue I'm often having... the time between getting new infantry units and new cavalry units (or artillery); since new unit types tend to be a rather significant leap in overall ability, the era between getting Redcoat Infantry (tech 43) and Latin Cuirassiers (tech 52) is a period where different army compositions may be worth looking into. This effect seems to cause a few sudden jumps in your charts (most notably in the second one).
I don't get this: I change the unit types used for the calculations whenever a better one gets around, so what should I do differently?

At any rate, this is a very informative collection of data that was interesting to read. Looking at the stuff you collected though, in conclusion it seems that one would need to constantly reform and change one's army composition to stay strong... then form it back to the older model, because it's suddenly more poweful again. Really just doesn't feel like it's worth all the trouble!
From all your criticism, I was starting to worry if you didn't like it :) Keep in mind that most of the crazy up-and-down stuff happens in a short time, about 25-35 years (1775-1801). Most of the campaign the graph is rather smooth.

Wait. A LIMITED analysis?

:D
Certainly. I have so far only analysed how many casualties each unit causes (relatively, not absolutely) against infantry without terrain or leader modifiers and with a boatload of assumptions. Quite limited indeed.

For pure damage, it's actually a fair comparison. 10 inf and 10 art takes up just as much space on the frontline as 10 inf or cav.

For overall battle winning capability, it's not sufficient of course.
That's indeed the whole idea: I am only looking at doing damage. Still, it seems to me that f.e. 10 cav versus 5 inf and 5 art will still win, as when the first line of cav is killed, the second line will probably finish off the remaining enemies.
 

knul

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Well I have a few points that need to be taken into consideration.

1) Terrain. Cavalry takes double the penalties, pretty simple.
I've already explained several times that for the time being I only take flat terrain into account. There's plenty of flat terrain on the planet, so in a lot of situations the analysis hold.


2) Dice rolls. Cavalry relies almost entirely on shock phase for its damage, while infantry's damage utilises both fire and shock. In practice this means that cavalry is dependant on one roll while infantry profits from both rolls. While cavalry will deal very high damage on good rolls, it will deal almost naught if it gets bad shock rolls.
I've calculated the expected casuallties as per probability theory. In the long term the values I have calculated will hold. Of course, because of individual rolls it can very well happen that a numerical superior cavalry army will lose a battle against infantry, but in the long run cavalry should win more.

3) Casualties. As the game progresses, the cavalry will start taking more and more casualties in overall when compared to infantry. Taking more casualties means making less damage, so cavalry is skrewed it it doesn't get goood rolls right at the start. This can be very devastating if infantry gets good roll on the first fire-phase.
Speculation. I must do that part of the analysis first to make conclusions.

Cavalry doesn't look so superior anymore, eh? :D
(Especially after that movement speed reduction which killed cavalrys strategic superiority)
The only argument you have made is that with bad terrain cavalry might not be competitive. Also, cavalry still has a movement superiority compared to inf+art: one of the main questions that this analysis should help answering is the balance between cavalry and inf+art, IMO.

On the combined arms tactic bonus, for tech groups that aren't Western, I notice that even when I'm at what should be a tactics bonus ratio, well past 50/50 for muslims, that I still see red numbers on my cav units. Am I getting the bonus or not?
No idea. The threshold for combined arms should AFAIK be lower for other tech groups, so perhaps this is a GUI bug?
 

Marconius

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1) First and foremost, you added together the shock and fire values of the various units... now again, I'm not expert at the EU3 combat system, but it is my understand cavalry typically has little to no fire rating (certainly not as much as artillery or infantry), but makes up for it by having a high shock value. The reason I bring this up is that combat is divided into two phases, shock and fire; I'm not sure simply summing up the pips creates realistic results.
I did not sum up the pips: I used the casualty formula from the wiki, as descirbed in the "calculating casualties" section. I even mention that I assume an equal amount of fire and shock phases, which is not structly true in almost all situations but was a necessary simplification.
This bit was in response to the first chart. ^^;
 

knul

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This bit was in response to the first chart. ^^;
Ahh, I see. Well, that chart is basically a baseline analysis: what can we conclude if we just look at the modifiers without taking anything else into account? The beauty of that analysis is that it doesn't require a unit vs unit analysis, as it doesn't take unit pips into account. But as you can see, it's too simplistic by far: we have to look at least at the unit pips to say anything sensible about cav, inf and art capabilities.

So yes, the first chart is lacking but that's basically the point of it :)
 

Gpeterse

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One other consideration, at least in the very early game, is cost-benefit. Infantry may look inferior but are 2-3 infantry units worse than one cavalry unit, assuming force limits and other factors are not barriers?