My thoughts on AI
My thoughts on the AI tend towards those of the Original Poster. I want the AI to be active and do stuff, and as it is, it runs out of things to do after a while. I want the AI to recognize threats and move to counter them while it still has a chance, but as it is it just sits there and does nothing. I want the AI to have some reasoning behind the way it makes alliances, and to honor those alliances once made. Finally, I want the AI to be really strong, to play with a more generous sense of self-interest in mind, so that it can both prosper on its own, and kick the crap out of me when I, as a player, do something stupid. If that means throttling my growing power as an infant, than so be it - it will make growing into a power a real challenge, as opposed to the mildly interesting diversion it currently is. I like challenges.
I have a series of ideas for how this might be fixable. I dont' know how the AI is coded, so I don't have any idea for how feasible this might be, but I figure I'll post it anyway.
To start with, the responsiveness of the AI to certain stimuli needs to be enhanced. Right now, it ignores these three important game aspects, resulting in annoying, silly, and self-destructive behavior.
First off, the AI needs to be coded to honor its alliances better. Given its current habit of dishonoring any call to arms against a power bigger than four provinces, or for that matter, declaring war on its allies if they seem to be losing, nothing can be done. In and of itself this will do little, but it is necessary if my later suggestions are to be possible.
Two, the AI needs to actually respond to badboy. As it is, only really small countries care about badboy. Big powers will never declare war on you for badboy if you are a significant power yourself. This is broken, and is a large portion of the widely observed "suicidal minor" issue. Given that badboy is BY DESIGN a silly and non-rational mechanism designed to force AI's to counter threats, arguments about AI rationality and self-interest hold no water when it comes to this point. As it stands, lowering the badboy threshold in the defines file has little effect on how the AI's behave (aside from provoking suicidal OPM's to declare war), and in particular how they behave toward each other.
Three, the AI needs to value stability a bit more. Right now, you cannot use stability modifications as a stick to make it change its behavior, and so it is happy to take a -6 stability hit in order to break an alliance and a royal marriage and military access and good relations to declare war on it's former friend.
Fourth, if the AI is going to attack a country for war exhaustion or badboy or whatever, it really should do that WHILE THAT COUNTRY IS STILL AT WAR. Right now, it always seems to wait for the target to END its long and draining war before declaring war. From a purely self-interested point of view, this is rather stupid, as it allows the target nation to move its troops to the new front without worrying about breaking off seiges or two fronts or anything. The EU2 AI was much, MUCH better about this. The fact that it is almost always OPM's that declare war in this manner does not help, either.
That fixed, I would suggest a system to encourage it to form alliances that make sense. Once made, these alliances would at least be a start towards simulating a balance of power situation, and would encourage threatened parties to act together to counter said threat.
I presume the AI routinely does checks against its neighbors, comparing their strength with its own strength. I would recommend that when these checks start coming up badly, that is, when a particular neighbor is obviously stronger
, the AI sets a durable flag - "I'm scared of X". The worse the power disparity, the stronger/the more flags get set.
Presumably, at any point, multiple nations might well have the "I'm scared of X" flag in action. Alliances should form between those nations. They are banding together against a common foe. It's historically valid, and it makes sense from a self-interest perspective.
However, large nations may never be terribly afraid of other large nations, and so they might never be drawn into such alliances. To goad them, I would have a second variable, anger. Anger flags might be set by things such as declaring war on nations with which one has good relations, annexing OPM's, owning cores, breaking guarantees, having close borders, having colonies near one's own colonies, etc. It would sort of be like BadBoy - but not, because BadBoy is supposed to make AI's declare war irregardless of their strength or standing.
Nations that are Angry at X would be willing to enter into alliances with nations that are Afraid of X, forming large Anti-X coalitions. With the adjusted AI, they would then honor those alliances, and have a good chance of containing X. I would then re-introduce the penalties for dishonoring Calls to Arms, which the AI will now care about because it now pays attention to stability.
These alliances would wait until either they grew big enough that, together, they could crush X, or until one party's Anger meter grew high enough to cause a DoW, or one party was sufficiently weakend by war with an outside source/internal rebellions/bad events/whatever, or until some event causes war to break out anyway, like a Succession Dispute or whatnot. Then you would have Grand Coalition wars between Major Powers that would make sense, and in which all sides would be following something approximating their self-interest. Things would be happening, growing powers would be contained, players would be challenged, the map would not be static, and everyone would be happy.