The Allies start unprepared, but can reach a great strength over time, while the Axis start strong, but cannot compete in the long term. Thus, they have to achieve their war goals early. Historically they assumed that the window of opportunity would close about one year after the entry of the US into the war. And if you look in more detail, while the defeat of France was very likely, without blunders like holding back the Panzers at Dunkirk, and better preparations for the Battle of Britain, an invasion of Britain could have been successful. And for a long time the battle of the Atlantic was a toss up. Had the Germans prepared better for a U-boat campaign before the war, they could have succeeded.
Allies actually weren`t weak at the start. Looking at attack in the west, it could`ve easily been a toss up, had French not committed the strategic blunder of running as many of their troops as deep into Belgium and Netherlands, and instead had more reserves stay back and counter-attack as required.
That kinda shows the issue with viewing WW2 as a fight of 2 teams, allies vs axis. In practice, the reason for allied "weakness" in early war wasn`t their lack of equipment or manpower, it was infighting and unwilliness to commit to war if they can avoid it.
Which led to France having to pretty much to fend for itself(with decent help of Britain) in early war, which then led them into making the mistake of rushing to meet German army, because they didn`t want a re-run of WW1 on their soil.
The fact that France and Britain in game know that US has their back, and they only need to hold 1-1.5 years till it enters, not 3 years like last time, means allies shouldn`t use any risky strategies, they felt had to, IRL.
Again, Soviet union and Japan were independent agents. SU definitely didn`t want the outcome it got in 1940, of being lone European power not aligned to axis. If fact, SU wanted to have a long Franko-German war, and mostly to sit it out, till it wanted to enter, or not.
The invasion of the Soviet Union could also have gone the other way had the Germans not committed a series of strategic blunders during the first two years.
Or, invasion could go horribly wrong, had Soviets not commit their fair share of strategic blunders in 1941. In fact, most of early Barbarossa was mostly dictated by Soviet failure to be prepared, realistically access it`s forces and devise a working strategy. Except, they didn`t have to. They had manpower and they had equipment, what they didn`t, was working institutions.
And of course, had Japan not attacked Pearl Harbor in Dec '41, the US entry into war would have been further delayed.
Us de-facto entered war in September 1941, by attacking German subs and escorting UK convoys in Atlantic. Japanese attack on them, was dictated by oil embargo, which US did themselves. American leadership was well aware of that exact possibility. So, in practice, there was no way to delay US entry. US leadership chose to enter at that point, because Allies were on the ropes. Germans were approaching Moscow, UK didn`t have a good time in desert, nor Atlantic. They, obviously didn`t know at that point, that Soviets will hold without intervention, but that, is again difference between reality and hindsight.
Based on this it is easy to see how the Axis in general, and Germany in particular, can reach their historical war goals as I suggested in my post above. I don't see why playing historically as either the Allies, Germany, or USSR would be any less interesting than with their current in-game versions. And upon winning WW2, a player can, of course continue to do whatever they like - although most players don't (Paradox collects the statistics, I am sure).
Issue is, IRL Axis could only achieve some limited goals, if at some point, their foes chose peace. The moment 1942 rolled in, it was relatively obvious Axis can`t win by any other factor then allies being attired into peace negotiations.
This is something the game doesn`t support, currently, hence the need for axis to be able to capitulate allies, same way allies historically did.
Keep in mind, the game isn't only about the European theater - It's also designed the way it is so that Japan players have a realistic chance of defeating the US navy. With historical production numbers, that's just literally impossible. You could sink every fleet the US sends at you with a giant doomstack and the US fleet numbers would just keep on growing instead of going down, until eventually you lose. Or imagine if the US had its historical production numbers and decided to build only submarines? You wouldn't even be able to play the game, the Sea of Japan would be more torpedo than water. You wouldn't be able to send troops anywhere, import fuel, and you certainly wouldn't be able to build enough convoy escorts to sink the raiders - the USA could put his subs on "always engage" and still sink every single convoy you have while your pitiful number of destroyers tries in futility to stop them before eventually running out of fuel and being unable to sail at all.
Japan doesn`t have a chance of winning vs US navy, if US puts efforts in its navy. Japan doesn`t have steel, fuel and aluminum, nor dockyards.
It`s
only if US deliberately choses to go Europe first, and doesn`t build much of a navy, that Japan has a chance, to hold, for some limited time. That said, most of US might discussed, was created in 1943-1944, which is typically too late for this game, as people finish Barbarossa and Sealion in 1942, give or take.
What is true is that the Western Allies did not expect Poland to fall in a matter of weeks. Based on WW1 experience they have expected the fighting in Poland to be dragged on for months so they assumed they have plenty of time to mobilize against Germany which proved to be a false assumption.
It`s not just WW1 experience. French had to mobilize, form units that are capable of attacking into well fortified(or so they assumed) German defensive line, West Wall, achieve breakthrough so big that Germans would have to forgo destroying Polish army completely, and all of that had to be done
before September 8th, in just 7 days, since by that time most of Polish standing army was encircled. This is mission impossible, even if they had known how fast Germans would advance.