A different ambition for Mussolini

[Tisifoni12]

Listened to a BBC radio programme about Mussolini today. In it historian Margaret MacMillan speculated that had Mussolini kept Italy out of the war he might have held on to power for decades like Franco. But, could Italy stay out of the war ? Would a neutral fascist Italy inevitably be dragged into the conflict by Hitler, by the allies, or by the Soviet Army steam rolling out of Eastern Europe ?

 

[Davy D]

It would require Benito to be a different man than he was: prudent. Not to be an opportunist and declare war on France after the Germans already had won the Battle of France. Not to pursue territorial ambitions in the Balkans and Africa that were going to clash with (far) more powerful nations.
But if Italy had stayed out, i don't think Germany, UK or USSR would have had any interest in opening yet another front in their war of survival.

 

[Volodio]

Theoretically, he could have, but Mussolini had always been very interventionist and bellicose. Even before WW2, with for instance the war in Ethiopia and the rivalry with Hitler over Austria in the 30s. Being neutral would have required him to be a different man.

 

[Tisifoni12]

Interesting to run it and see ? First game of HOI4 I played was as Greece; no-one attacked me and I wasn't invited to or accepted into any factions.

Italy of course has a larger economy, larger military, etc. Italy wasn't ready for a world war in 1940. If Italy waited way another year to see how the war progresses ?

 

[sekelsenmat]

Italy of course has a larger economy, larger military, etc. Italy wasn't ready for a world war in 1940. If Italy waited way another year to see how the war progresses ?

The issue is that Italy wanted Nice back, it was part Italian part French like Alsase Lorraine was part French part German. Even the famous Guiseppe Garibaldi was born in Nice. And it was the perfect timing to get it back...

The 1 year more of getting ready appears offen about various countries, but it is a shallow argument because: the other side isn't sleeping over this 1 year, if anything the severe disadvantage of Italy in Tanks and Radar would even grow faster without joining the war as they wouldn't realise how misguided was focusing on light tanks and how deeply the lack of radar made them inferior in naval night battles.

What was crazy was Mussolini declaring war on the USA, but if he hadn't the USA would declare as it declared on Romania and Hungary.

 

[Treviranus]

It would require Benito to be a different man than he was: prudent. Not to be an opportunist and declare war on France after the Germans already had won the Battle of France. Not to pursue territorial ambitions in the Balkans and Africa that were going to clash with (far) more powerful nations.
But if Italy had stayed out, i don't think Germany, UK or USSR would have had any interest in opening yet another front in their war of survival.

Mussolini - regardless of how he presented himself -did not hold absolute power in Italy,the PNF, the army, the king and others were factors to take into account. Even a member of the government, Count Ciano, was against Italy entering the war. Historically, the perceived weakness of the Allies tipped the scales in favour of the bellicose faction within Italy, I suspect it wouldn't have taken much to push Italy in a different direction. Mussolini being an opportunist does not rule out all other options but war. A bit more success of the anti-war faction within Italy and some diplomatic appeasement by the Allies would probably have sufficed to keep Italy out of the war.

With that being said, I think it would be a sensible and historically plausible option to include a path that keeps Mussolini in power and Italy out of the war in the Italy DLC.

 

[squid_hills]

One thing that fascinated me when I read it was just how unpopular the decision to ally with Germany was in Italy. Italo Balbo wasn't the only guy opposed to the alliance. The average Italian wasn't happy with the tiny amount of territory they gained after WWI, but they still had a higher opinion of the UK than of Germany. We all know the Italy DLC will be "fascist Italy/communist Italy/monarchist Italy/democratic Italy" But I'd love to see more nuance to the fascist tree. Right now we have "join Germany/join Spain/do Ancient Rome". I'd like to see them drop the Spanish alliance and tuck in a "stay fascist, but join the Allies anyway" path. Maybe France or the UK could bribe Italy with some of their colonial holdings?

 

[Takethe3]

He could easily have stayed out the war and could even have joined the allies.

He only entered the war because he thought it was about to end in 1940 and saw a chance for easy concessions.

 

[MR2]

But I'd love to see more nuance to the fascist tree.

Me too. Check out the treatment Italy gets in the UMC Mod Collection: https://steamcommunity.com/workshop/filedetails/?id=1424348644

 

[Senor Bigbits]

While I agree that Paradox ought to include a fascist Italy alternative of joining the Allies, considering that Italy had better relations with the UK and USA than they ever did with Germany, and that Mussolini was primarily an opportunist.
However, I'd also think it'd be very hard for Paradox to come up with something that counter-balances such a decision, considering it turns the European theatre into a very one-sided beatdown against Germany

 

[squid_hills]

However, I'd also think it'd be very hard for Paradox to come up with something that counter-balances such a decision, considering it turns the European theatre into a very one-sided beatdown against Germany

There's already something in the game that would balance that. I think it's the "Unholy Alliance" on the German tree. It's the NF that makes Germany and Russia bestest buds and allies, and turns the whole world against the two of them. If Italy sides with the Allies, they can just hard-code Germany to take "Unholy Alliance" and ensure that the Allies don't have an easy time of it.

 

[BloodAsp]

This is how I see alternate (and sadly more logical ) path for Italy in World War II:
1. World War II starts.
2. Italy declares neutrality
3. Italy sells to both parties. It is making great money on aluminium, steel, oil, etc etc. Italian ambassador in IIIreich sips champagne with ambassadors from Portugal, Turkey and Sweden. They all take turns swimming in gigantic pool of gold (Scrooge McDuck style)
4. Italy is not getting Dalmatia - NOBODY cares
5. France falls - Hitler tempts Italy with Corsica, Nice, etc etc - Italy will not be swayed.
6. Italy is still not getting Dalmatia - even less people care. Enormous (100K people) manifestation in Rome - people carry signs with "We don't have Dalmatia - I don't care", and "Where is Dalmatia anyway".
7. Hitler attacks Yugoslavia and creates Ustase Croatia - Italy cares even less.
8. Mussolini presents ultimatum to Greek government: Greece is NOT SUPPOSED to become Italian puppet state, and NOT ALLOW Italian soldiers on their land. However due to antiitalian sentiment in population Greek government has to reject ultimatum.
9. Greek military kidnaps random Italian and declares him proconsul general/local chief deputy.
10. Italy has to declare war on Greece(League of Nations has no idea how to resolve that issue). Both sides fly the same flag which complicates military operations. Both sides have very low morale and no hope of victory. After 2 weeks of chaos no one knows where are the Italian and Greek divisions (mostly in the taverns). Who is winning, is there anybody shooting anyway.
11. Italy is STILL NOT getting Dalmatia - at that point no one remembers about that anyway.
12. II world war ends in Allied victory: Germany had some Italian Oil, but lacked Italian manpower on eastern front. Allies land in Normandy anyway (they loose experience from naval landing in Sicily, and Southern Italy, but don't have to fight Africa corps in Libya - just in Tunisia - Tunisgrad still happens)
13. "Mein Fuhrer, why do we have to defend that Gott forsaken Tunisia?" "Because it looks good on the map!!!"
14. Mussolini squanders all that gold and USD on cr***. Also Italy has to keep Ethiopia under control.
15. Italy is like Spain, but Mussolini is older than Franco, so he dies in 60s - just in time for hippie uprising and economic miracle.
16. We can all go to Tripoli and Benghazi for vacations

 

[Tisifoni12]

8. Mussolini presents ultimatum to Greek government: Greece is NOT SUPPOSED to become Italian puppet state, and NOT ALLOW Italian soldiers on their land. However due to antiitalian sentiment in population Greek government has to reject ultimatum.
9. Greek military kidnaps random Italian and declares him proconsul general/local chief deputy.

@BloodAsp
If Italy doesn't take Albania then Italy has no land border from which to launch illtimed and badly organised offensive against Greece. An offensive so successful that the Greeks had liberated half of Albania before the German invasion interrupted their progress.
Is there potential for a separate little war between Italy, which possesses the Dodenaneee islands, with Mussolini wanting former Venetian controlled islands (Corfu, Crete, Naxos) and Greece wanting the Dodecanese ?

 

[kettyo]

He could easily have stayed out the war and could even have joined the allies.

He only entered the war because he thought it was about to end in 1940 and saw a chance for easy concessions.

Right, both Hitler and Mussolini expected a peace with Britain after the defeat of France. Britain being rejective of peace talks surprised them very much.

 

[Takethe3]

Right, both Hitler and Mussolini expected a peace with Britain after the defeat of France. Britain being rejective of peace talks surprised them very much.

Absolutely. It is the best example of the centuries old differential between continental and island thinking. From the perspective of Britain and the majority of it's leadership making terms whilst having command of the seas would be absurd. For Germany and Italy it was all about divisions on the map.

 

[BloodAsp]

@Tisifoni12

Like in my little story?
Or in game, or in real life?