20 combat die rolls vs computer in iron man game.

[Slargos]

Wrong. Iron is a flammable metal. Alternatively, you can say that the enthalpy change for the oxidation of iron is negative.

What are you, an Allomancer? Burning iron. Really. Put down your Sanderson books.

Next, someone will come in here and claim the world is shaped like an orange.

 

[bleakie]

What are you, an Allomancer? Burning iron. Really. Put down your Sanderson books.

Next, someone will come in here and claim the world is shaped like an orange.

This is elementary chemistry. Please.

 

[ByteJunk]

What are you, an Allomancer? Burning iron. Really. Put down your Sanderson books.

Next, someone will come in here and claim the world is shaped like an orange.

It was, but the Lord Ruler decided he liked pears better.

 

[LiberiusX]

Hello Pots,

I think the only thing the sample of posts in this thread proves is that there are a bunch of nerds on this forum who know(or think they know) a lot about everything.

Sincerely,

Kettle

 

[grisamentum]

I'll go Bayesian on you. If you create a new dice, that has never been rolled before, and your first 20 rolls all roll 1, it's quite likely (but still not not certain) you have a problem. The hypothesis that the dice is loaded would be indeed the most probable one, if you have any reasonable chance that the dice _could_ be loaded to start with.

Yep. Or, if not "loaded" perhaps "misweighted."

If you have a dice that has been used for years, and generated a sequence of millions of rolls, and (all) you're shown a sub-set of the rolls that starts with 20 ones (and then say you're shown next two rolls only), it doesn't mean much. Indeed, if you didn't have such a sequence in millions of rolls, you'd better start being suspicious! Indeed, I'd expect a few sequences of (say) 1,2,3,4,5,6,6,5,4,3,2,1 as well and many other "funny" ones to be in a sequence of millions of 1D6 rolls (but I'd be never guaranteed to have one, of course).

This is completely true, though "funny" sequences like 1,2,3,4,5,6,6,5,4,3,2,1 aren't problematic in the same way that a consistently underperforming set is. After all, that's a perfectly average result. It does trip the human brain's pattern recognition circuits, but that's not the problem this thread is about.

We're more concerned with performance that deviates from what the model (d10-1) predicts. Of course there will be streaks where the player or AI under/over performs, like the OP. It means nothing by itself unless it's incredibly deviant. Like you say, you expect some weird stuff in a long sequence of millions of rolls. But if the OP can go back and observe more rolls, and notices he consistently underperforms, then it becomes vanishingly unlikely that he is just in a bad part of a long sequence. The size of the sequence necessary before you'd experience what he experienced would become longer and longer and longer, if he did indeed keep getting consistently poor results. Eventually we would just have to conclude that our model (d10-1) was wrong to begin with.

Fortunately we do not have that problem here.

 

[zodium]

Hello Pots,

I think the only thing the sample of posts in this thread proves is that there are a bunch of nerds on this forum who know(or think they know) a lot about everything.

Sincerely,

Kettle

... he said, smugly content with the high quality of his video game forum zinger.

 

[unmerged(80402)]

What are you, an Allomancer? Burning iron. Really. Put down your Sanderson books.

Next, someone will come in here and claim the world is shaped like an orange.

Well iron does burn, but only in very high temperatures, or when you have atmosphere with big quantity of oxygen(as we know, oxygen is about 20% of total air, rest is mostly nitrogen, and a very small amount is CO2(about 0,035 - it differs, but it is ussualy in quite small amount) and other gases(most prominently, about 1% of air is Argon, and from 0,5%-4% is water(in form of steam). Fun fact, water is more important gas in the greenhouse effect than CO2(more important in global warming). CO2 is however very good for plant life, increase their fertility, and makes them stronger. More harmfull, is lead, which is heavy metal and it harm animal and plant life, because it accumulates, and sometimes causes sterility - see why roman empire fallen - they used leaden dishes, so they became less and less healthy, so they became demoralized, and weak. There are lot of other reasons, obviously, like the fact they had lot of slaves, which made them lazy, they hired large amounts of mercenaries, and taught the barbaric tribes their own tactics, they were decitefull towards them, so the tribes became annoyed, because of series of betrayals. The barbarians brought by atilla used stirrup, so their cavalry was more deadly, and harder to beat. They used strong horse archer formations, and used to raid and fight. But, this could make up for a book to say for how many reasons the roman empire fallen...

Back to iron, if it would burn so easily, it would be useless as a metal for weapons. Think : Someone would just use a torch, and destroy whole enemy army if it would be that easy XD.

EDIT: Thou most metals are flameable, most of those that are, need very high temperature to be burned. Or as one in previous post said, it would need to be in powder form, thou, even if it would be, as it would melt under high temperature would make it no longer being in powder form. Unless you would throw it into air, but IF you would do that, when set in fire, it would explode.

 

[Seelmeister]

I think this thread has gone far enough off topic now.

Thread closed.