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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

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DvD-IT

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1944 - Götterdämmerung Revised

Having had a bit of fun with this famed scenario, I've asked myself some questions about its balance and realism; several other threads that emerge from time to time do repeat these questions and also provide some answers: why is the Soviet Army at 100% strength? How can the Allied forces sweep thru France in a matter of days? Why does Germany fall by September 1944?

On the spur of the moment, it only seems fair that Germany is bound to lose - the fact that she loses so quickly may be attributed to AI's incapability to establish a coherent retreat, but upon closer inspection, the fact that the outcome (German loss) might seem realistic at a glance does not mean that the scenario reflects the real situation.

What I aim for: compare the scenario's Armed Forces of Axis, Soviets and Allies with historic data and statistics as most accurate as possible and re-evaluate the number and placement of divisions where needed.

What is the philosophy behind it: a mix of balance and historical realism. Germany prior to Operation Bagration should still be a tough nut to crack, and not a walkover to Berlin.

How I intend to modify this scenario will be explained in the following posts.


---Download Link---
Version 0.6

630 Downloads total (all versions) as of 25. I. 2011

Extract the zip content into the Arsenal of Democracy folder.


Previous download links:
- Version 0.5b - 149 Downloads
- Version 0.5 - 62 Downloads
- Version 0.4 - 83 Downloads
- Version 0.3 - 66 Downloads
- Version 0.2 - 34 Downloads
- Version 0.1 - 26 Downloads


Changelog:

v0.6 - Released 07. VIII. 2010
Several small balance fixes.
- GER
Lowered GDE from 0.825 to 0.82
Divisions in France slightly weakened
- USA
Converted several '39 Inf to '43
- UK
Duplicated names now fixed
Converted several '39 Inf to '43
- JAP
Converted some '39 Inf to '41 and '43
Lowered some divisions' experience in China from 40 to 30 or less
- CHI
Converted 70% of '18 Inf to '36 or '39 Inf ('18 Inf was too crappy even for China)
Gave back techs 1020 and 1030 (but not 1040: this means Inf up to model '39)

v0.5b - Released 17. VI. 2010
- CHINAS
Upped Chinese divisions' strength from 55% to 65% and experience from 15 to 65
Chinese divisions are now dug in.
Gave NatChi and ComChi Deep Operations Doctrine and Defense in Depth techs.
- JAP OOB
Weakened the IJA a bit in terms of experience and strength
- GER OOB
Moved 7 divisions from Rennes to Avranches

v0.5 - Released 14. VI. 2010
- JAP&Puppets OOB
Brigaded almost the entirety of the IJA.
Added 150 divisions: 120 in China, 30 in Japan
Now Manchukuo only has '18 Infantry
Added ~10 divisions to Manchukuo and Mengkukuo
- CHINAS
Removed Tech IDs 1040 1030 and 1020 (now they only have '18 infantry)
Changed Relationship between ComChi and the other Chinas from +100 to +10
Added 165 divisions overall, all of them at 55% strength and '18 Infantry
Chinas MP pool greatly nerfed (only 2,500 MP)
- GER OOB
Renamed additional divs' suffix from '(2)' to 'II'.
Avranches is now German, Cherbourg not anymore. 7 divisions from Angers have been moved to Avranches, 11 to Argentan.
- ALLIED OOB
Cherbourg is now Allied, Avranches not anymore: The Allied divisions that were stationed there now begin the scenario in Cherbourg.
-Other
The US now get 150% penalty on occupied TC mod.
The US no longer own province in France and Low Countries - Germany does. This should slow the US advance down as their TC goes in the red as they advance deep into France.
Redistributed Japanese IC more evenly among the Japanese provinces.
-Events
The German surrender event now destroys the Siegfried Line.
Germany gets an event at the beginning of the scenario which lowers org of 200 divisions by 10% (should help Bagration's initial push).
AI China no longer annexes the Warlords.

v0.4 - Released 29. V. 2010
- GER OOB
Added several locked, capped at 25% strength divisions guarding the beaches from Aalborg to Dax.
- SOV OOB
Polish/Czechoslovakian units renamed/types adjusted as per cegorah's fix
- UK OOB
Polish units renamed/types adjusted as per cegorah's fix
- US OOB
Several divisions have been moved from the Pacific Theatre to Portsmouth.
- Other
Aachen is now a German core.
- AI
UK AI will now research nuclear techs.
- Events
New event for Germany. Once Paris and Auxerre fall, Germany can activate 5 garrison divisions in the Siegfried line.
Germany surrender events rewritten from scratch (credits to waynetraube).

v0.3 - Released 16. V. 2010
Tweaks to German AI: should be less prone to suicide attacks and should prioritize reinforcing Siegfried line once Paris is fallen
Siegfried Line
- US & UK OOB
Changed some Mot&Mec divs to Infantry divs

v0.2 - Released 11. V. 2010
- Events
Added a separate event folder for this scenario
The "Hitler Assassinated!" event is now less likely to happen, and it will give 10 dissent instead of 15 (won't affect other scenarios)
The "Failed assassination of Hitler" event is now less likely to happen, and it will give 5 dissent instead of 10 (won't affect other scenarios)
USA and UK now get an event at the beginning of the scenario; these two countries will receive -50% daily manpower growth.
- German OOB
Schlachtgeschwader 1 no longer is a Turbojet Fighter squadron (credits to Mjarr)
- Soviet OOB
Weakened the Red Army just a bit
- Other
Balkans and Northern Italian's provinces now get a Revolt Risk of 50-30%
Gothic Line: Previously 1 fort, now 4
Added 6 IC to NatChi (2 in Ganzhou, 2 in Fuzhou and 2 in Chongqing)

v0.1 - Released 09. V. 2010
- German OOB
Added 200 divisions proportional to regional quantities
Tweaked Unit Strengths
Reduced Manpower Pool
- Soviet OOB
Added more than 80 divisions
Brigaded more than 300 divisions
Standard Division Strength at 85%, no longer 100%
Reduced Manpower Pool
More balanced divisions' experience (average is lower)
- Axis Minors OOB
Most Hungarian divisions don't sit in Budapest anymore
Raised Hungarian and Romanian divisions' experience
Romanian divisions' strength greatly reduced
- US OOB
Added 30 divisions: 10 in France, 7 in Italy, 13 in the Far East
Garrisons' strength capped at 35%
Divisions in the US: experience lowered to 10
Reduced Manpower Pool
- UK OOB
Added 10 divisions in France
Reduced Manpower Pool
-Other
Added 20 IC to Germany, SU and US in order to prevent early supply shortages.
Added around 50 daily Oil to the SU in order to prevent early oil shortages.
Restored the Axis Minors IC to 1936 levels, plus something (no more Bulgaria with 60 IC).
 
Last edited:

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GERMAN MANPOWER



1) THE ANALYSIS


First, the following analysis strictly refers to German divisions and soldiers purely. Other Axis countries' figures such as Romanian's and Hungarian's are not included in these numbers.

Various sources cite different numbers regarding the total amount of German military casualties throughout the war, that range from 4 million to 5.5 million. We're going with 4.5 million, and we estimate that Germany suffered 3.5 million casualties by June 1944.

This source shows that the Germans had around 290 divisions in June 1944.


This other source -taken from a forum post which cites two sources such as Kroener and Müller-Hillebrand- has a wide array of numbers concerning German divisions and soldiers.

May-June 1944 German Manpower

East: 150 divisions, 2,500,000 soldiers

West: 58 divisions, 886.000 soldiers

South East (including Greece and Balkans): 25 divisions, total manpower strength 440.000 soldiers

Denmark: 6 divisions (no strength given, we assume 80,000)

Norway + Finland: 12 divisions, 250.000 soldiers

Italy (OB Südwest): 28 divisions, around 500.000 soldiers


estimated TOTAL: 5 million soldiers, 280 divisions.​


Considering that the 1941 standard German Division consisted of 17,500 men, and that 5 million/280 makes 17,850, we're going to assume that the Wehrmacht had at its disposal, in June 1944, around 3.5 million men for combat roles arranged in 280 divisions.

Sources such as (1), (2) show that around 9-12 million men were mobilized for the Wehrmacht. We could estimate that 70% of this quantity relates to support roles (i.e. not translatable to HoI-MP), which leaves us with something close to 4 million.


2) THE PRESENT IN-GAME SITUATION​

Current German MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 1785. That equals to around 1.8 million troops arranged in 267 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

171 (35) Infantry | 1780 = 1360+(420)
30 (16) Armored | 242 = 98+(144)
25 (4) HQ | 133 = 105+(28)
13 (9) Mechanized | 148 = 40+(108)
11 (2) Motorized | 114 = 90+(24)
8 Mountaineer | 120
6 (3) Paratroop | 96 = 45+(51)
3 Cavalry | 27

On paper, the 267 divisions should host 2660 MP. 267 divisions instead of ~280 divisions as historical data points out. This gives us a mean figure that 1 division equals 10,000 men. This means that a full-force Wehrmacht, in this scenario, could host 2.6 million men (and that's speaking full-force, while we only have 1.8 million men here), which is almost two million less than the real-life battered Wehrmacht of June 1944. This despite the divisions number difference between the scenario and historical data is rather low.

The main mistake lies in the huge difference between a HoI division and a German division. The former is made up of around 10,000-12,000 men, while the German one consists of more than 15,000 men. The OOB for German forces is almost correct in the 1944 scenario both for divisions number and distribution, but it doesn't take into account this difference, which penalizes the German strength by a long shot.



3) THE PROPOSED SOLUTION (done)​


We need to create more divisions, even if they didn't exist - the only way to make e.g. 4 German divisions (17,500*4 = 70,000) is to create 7 HoI divs (10,000*7 = 70,000). Following this 7:4 ratio, the 267 divisions ought to become 467. We need to create 200 divisions (done).

467 divisions means 4670 manpower. This means that, on paper, the Wehrmacht could field an army of 4.67 million men. Since we assumed that by June 1944 the Wehrmacht only has 3.5 million at its disposal, this means that the average division is at 70-75% strength. This should be an acceptable value, with divisions on the Eastern front being more damaged and divisions on the Western front being less damaged.

With the total of 467 divisions in mind, we can multiply each regional number of divisions by 1.75 and get a close estimate of how many divisions we should place in each region:

East: 262 divisions
West: 90 divisions
South East: 40 divisions
Denmark&Germany: 10 divisions
Norway&Finland: 20 divisions
Italy: 45 divisions

This gives us a total of 467 divisions, or around 4670 manpower. If we assume that every division is at 70-75% strength (we assumed that avg. damage is 25%-30%) we'd have 3250-3500 manpower: that is, 3.5 million.

Lastly, Germany begins the scenario with a manpower pool of 850. This number should be reduced to 350. (done).
 
Last edited:

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GERMAN TANK DIVISIONS

1) THE ANALYSIS


"In February 1944, only 1,519 tanks remained operational while 1,534 were under repair."
(source)


2) THE PRESENT IN-GAME SITUATION​

That equals to around 3,000 tanks: in game terms, 30 armored division at a mean strength of 50. In fact, Germany begins with 30 Armored Divisions.


- Location
Strength Name (brigade) [nationality] | correct placement | notes


- Bacau
100 3. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Totenkopf' (harm) | correct
100 Pz.Gren.-Div. 'Grossdeutschland' (harm) | correct
100 24. Panzer-Division (spart) | correct | should be given less strength

- Wilno
100 5. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Wiking' (spart) | correct
070 20. Panzer-Division | correct

- Tallinn
070 12. Panzer-Division (aa) | correct

- Stryj
050 1. Panzer-Division | correct
050 7. Panzer-Division | correct
050 8. Panzer-Division | correct
050 17. Panzer-Division | correct

- Iasi
070 14. Panzer-Division (harm) | correct

- Kowel
050 23. Panzer-Division | correct
050 3. Panzer-Division (spart) | correct
050 13. Panzer-Division | correct

- Braila
050 16. Panzer-Division (harm) | correct

- Argentan
095 130. Panzer-Lehr-Division (spart) | correct | should be given less strength
070 2. Panzer-Division | correct

070 1.SS-Leibstandarte Adolf Hitler (harm)
065 12. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Hitlerjugend' (harm)
035 116. Panzer-Division

- Angers
065 2. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Das Reich' (spart) | correct
040 9. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Hohenstaufen' (spart) | correct | should be given more strength
065 10. SS-Panzer.Div. 'Frundsberg' (spart) | correct | should be given more strength
050 21. Panzer-Division | correct

- Lodz
050 6. Panzer-Division | correct

- Florence
060 26. Panzer-Division (AA) | correct
070 Fallschirm Pz-Div. 'Hermann Goering' (AA) | correct

- Essen
001 4. Panzer-Division
001 5. Panzer-Division
001 22. Panzer-Division

- Stryj
055 2. gyalog hadosztaly [hun]

1750 total strength


3) THE PROPOSED SOLUTION (done)​


- Overall, the locations of these divisions are correct; I'm sure that whoever placed them did a lot of research over their whereabouts during the Summer of 1944.

- The total strength is somehow balanced and almost realistic; the distribution, however, is not. The scenario treats these divisions with an almost equal strength (most ranging from 40 to 60%) both in the Eastern and in the Western front. Western tank divisions should have higher strength overall, while Eastern ones should have less.

- The paper divisions in Essen are problematic as I have found no evidence of this status. 22. Panzer-Division was disbanded in April 1943; 4. Panzer-Division and 5. Panzer-Division were under Army Group Centre, in the Eastern Front. 22. Panzer Division should be disbanded and 4. and 5. assigned to Army Group Centre (mayhaps one in Kowel and one in Rowel) and given some strength.

- (Wikipedia) "'Hohenstaufen' and 'Frundsberg' played an important part in holding the British Forces back in Normandy, particularly during Operation Epsom"; such operation would only begin on June 26th, 6 days after the scenario start date: so we assume that these two divisions still had a considerably high strength.

- (Wikipedia) "During the June fighting around Caen, the division had suffered around 2,500 casualties and lost 102 tanks." We assume this equals to roughly 50% of a tank division strength. The strength of this division should be lowered a bit.

This is, therefore, the revised OOB:

- Bacau
070 3. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Totenkopf' (harm)
060 Pz.Gren.-Div. 'Grossdeutschland' (harm)
070 24. Panzer-Division (spart)

- Wilno
090 5. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Wiking' (spart)
070 20. Panzer-Division

- Tallinn
060 12. Panzer-Division (aa)

- Stryj
045 1. Panzer-Division
050 7. Panzer-Division
050 8. Panzer-Division
050 17. Panzer-Division

- Iasi
070 14. Panzer-Division (harm)

- Kowel
050 23. Panzer-Division
050 3. Panzer-Division (spart)
050 13. Panzer-Division
030 4. Panzer-Division

- Braila
050 16. Panzer-Division (harm)

- Argentan
065 130. Panzer-Lehr-Division (spart)
075 2. Panzer-Division

075 1.SS-Leibstandarte Adolf Hitler (harm)
075 12. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Hitlerjugend' (harm)
055 116. Panzer-Division

- Angers
065 2. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Das Reich' (spart)
060 9. SS-Panzer-Div. 'Hohenstaufen' (spart)
085 10. SS-Panzer.Div. 'Frundsberg' (spart)
050 21. Panzer-Division

- Lodz
045 6. Panzer-Division

- Florence
060 26. Panzer-Division (AA)
075 Fallschirm Pz-Div. 'Hermann Goering' (AA)

- Rowne
035 5. Panzer-Division

- Stryj
045 2. gyalog hadosztaly [hun]

1735 total strength
 
Last edited:

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SOVIET MANPOWER


1) THE ANALYSIS​

Several sources state that the Red Army had, at its peak, around 6 million soldiers and over 5,000 tanks, with figures ranging from 5.7 million to 6.3 million.

For example. this source states that by 1943-1944 the Red Army fielded 5.7 million soviet troops against 3 million Germans.

This other source states that the Red Army had as many as 6.5 million troops directly involved on the Eastern Front.

Wikipedia reports that the Red Army conscripted 29.5 million soldiers at the beginning of the war, in addition to the 4.8 million already in service. Throughout the war, of these 34.5 million, 11 million are KIA or MIA. This leaves us with a total of 23.5 million. If, again, we go by the 75% ratio, we have 5.8 million troops directly involved in combat - i.e. translatable in HoI Manpower terms.

Data taken from Analysis of Deep Attack Operations: Operation Bagration of William M. Connors: by the beginning of Summer 1944, the Soviet forces had superiority in personnel of 1.7 times the Germany/Axis forces, 1.6 times the tanks and 4.9 times the operational aircraft. While Germany devoted 70% of her manpower resources to the Eastern Front (3.13 million in 179 divisions, including 23 panzer and 7 panzer grenadier divisions), the Soviet Union only devoted 7% to their second front against Japan.

"Although the rifle divisions were not at full strength, they were at least fuller than German divisions [...]".

Soviet blitzkrieg: the Battle for White Russia, 1944 of Walter Scott Dunn states that on 1 July 1944 there were 6.4 million Soviet troops in operational units on the Eastern front, and that by 1 June 1944 the Red Army had 476 divisions.

Taking all of this in consideration, considering that Germany and her Allies should field around 2.75-3 million soldiers in June 1944 in the Eastern Front, the Soviet Union should have around 5.5 million troops to match the 1.6-2:1 ratio, and 0.3 million in the Far East (7% of the Red Army): in total, the overall size of the Red Army should be of 5.8 million troops.


2) THE PRESENT IN-GAME SITUATION


Current Soviet MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 5533. That equals to around 5.5 million troops arranged in 564 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

461 (13) Infantry | 4636=4480+(156)
53 Armored | 371
28 HQ | 140
9 Mechanized | 90
9 Cavalry | 81
2 Mountaineer | 30
1 Marine | 15
1 Motorized | 10

All of these 564 divisions, totalling 5,373 manpower, are at 100% strength - this means we have 5.37 million soldiers in the Red Army. We're 0.43 short of the total we want to achieve.

The number of Armored divisions are correct. Several sources state that the Red Army had over 5,000 tanks at its disposal, so 53 armored divisions seem right enough.

There are 62 divisions in the Far East. This is more than 10% of the Red Army.

Only 13 of the 564 divisions are brigaded. This low number should be raised to include at least half of the Infantry and Armored divisions of the Red Army (therefore, around 250 divisions should be brigaded).


3) THE PROPOSED SOLUTION (done)​


We need to bring 400,000 more soldiers to the Red Army. Brigading 250 divisions already nets 500,000 more (2,000*250).

We don't want the Red Army divisions to be at 100% strength. This source states that the Red Army had 6.2 million soldiers in 350 divisions in 1943. This means that the average Soviet divisions counts 17,500 men. Therefore, we'd like a full-force Red Army able to field 6.8 million men, in theory, and 5.8 million, in practice, in June 1944. This means that the average Red Army division is at 85% strength - which, compared to the average 50% strength of the German division, sounds fair enough.

To accomplish the 6.8 million target with a bigger proportion between brigaded/unbrigaded divisions we need this force:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

521 (340) Infantry | 5890=1810+(4080)
53 (25) Armored | 421=196+(225)
28 HQ | 140
9 Mechanized | 90
9 Cavalry | 81
2 Mountaineer | 30
1 Marine | 15
1 Motorized | 10


We've added 60 infantry divisions for a total of 624 divisions, whose manpower totals 6,667 - that is, around 6.7 million troops.

Once we attribute a mean strength of 85% to each of these divisions, we'll attain a manpower of 5,667 - around 5.7 million troops.

Finally, 0.2 million, or 20 divisions, will be allocated to the Far East Front on the Manchurian border; the remaining 604 divisions with 5.5 million troops will serve on the German front.

The Soviet Manpower pool begins with 1600 manpower in reserve. This is too high for a 1944 Soviet Union and should be lowered to 600.

One last note that regards the Red Army experience. 100 divisions - the Guards divisions - mostly Infantry but also Armored, have 80% experience with the remaining divisions having 25% experience. Such Guards divisions should have their experience lowered to 50% (almost on par with their German, more damaged counterparts).
 
Last edited:

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ALLIED MANPOWER​

1) THE ANALYSIS​

We have to analyze two fronts here: i) the French front and ii) the Italian front. Then, iii) a peculiar analysis regardng the US manpower and the 90-Division gamble.

i) Italian Front.​

Under the 15th Army Group, as many as 27 multi-national divisions fought in Italy. This source provides a breakdown of the OOB of Allied forces in Italy.

This other source and this one also state that by Spring 1944 there were 27 Allied divisions in Italy, facing 25 German divisions.

There is a substantial manpower parity between Axis and Allied forces in Italy. It took indeed two years to break thru the multiple German lines of defense set up in favorable terrain. All considered, there should be around 400,000 Allied troops in Italy. In July, a further 10,000 would reach Italy from Brazil:

(quoted from this source) "In the first days of July, 1944, the first Echelon of the Brazilian Expeditionary Force (FEB) left to Europe, aboard the American ship General Mann, in a total of 5.081 men."

ii) French Front.​

160,000 Allied troops disembarked in France on June 6th. We assume that by June 20th, few days before Operation Epsom, that alone involved 15-18 Allied divisions, 600,000 troops went ashore. As Wikipedia states, by the end of 11 June, 326,547 troops and 54,186 vehicles had disembarked, and by June 30 over 850,000 men and 148,000 vehicles had disembarked. If we assume a linear growth, it means that 27,000 troops disembarked daily, with 248,000 troops reaching the French shores by June 20th: this means that the Allies had around 575,000 troops and 95,000 vehicles by June 20th 1944. Together with the Italian front, it means that the Allies fielded 1,000,000 troops.

As a note about the German counterparts: "By D-Day 157 German divisions were stationed in the Soviet Union, 6 in Finland, 12 in Norway, 6 in Denmark, 9 in Germany, 21 in the Balkans, 26 in Italy and 59 in France, Belgium and the Netherlands." 59 German divisions in France means that, if they were full-strength, there were 1 million German troops in France. This number will be much closer to 600,000.

iii) US manpower.​

Quoting this source:

"Early estimates, in late 1941 and in 1942, of the "cutting edge"-in divisions-needed to win the war were high. In the Victory Program of the fall of 1941, the War Department projected an Army with a peak strength of 213 divisions. The Victory Program was premised on a strategic policy of offensive operations in Europe and on the assumption that the Soviet Army might collapse [...] "

"To establish a proper manpower balance for the United States in wartime was as difficult as it was important. Out of some 25,000,000 Americans physically fit for military service, the absolute ceiling on the number that could be utilized for active duty was estimated to be between fifteen and sixteen million. [4] On the surface, it was hard to understand, given this pool of manpower, why there should be any manpower problem at all. Why, if Germany could maintain a military establishment of 9,835,000 or 10.9 percent of its population and Britain could support 3,885,000 or 8.2, did American manpower officials insist in late 1942 that 10,500,000 or only 7.8 percent would be the maximum force that the country could sustain without incurring serious dislocation to the American economy? The problem as well as the answer stemmed from the fact that the Allies had from the beginning accepted the proposition that the single greatest tangible asset the United States brought to the coalition in World War II was the productive capacity of its industry. From the very beginning, American manpower calculations were closely correlated with the needs of war industry.

The Army had therefore to compete for manpower not only with the needs of the other services but also with the prior claims of industry. Cutting too deeply into the industrial manpower of the country in order to furnish men for the Army and Navy might interfere seriously with arming U.S. troops and those of the Allies for the successful conduct of the war."

"This would leave the Army with 90 divisions-43 for the war in Europe, 7 for North Africa, 22 for the Pacific, and 18 for the continental reserve. If necessary, service troops could be organized from the eighteen reserve divisions."

This is a very interesting study over the American assets for war. Underlining that the US primary asset is their industrial output, and that the mobilizing strategy follows this route, means that the US had to choose to restrict their huge manpower potential to something more than one million soldiers (in HoI terms, that is), in order not to damage the industrial output of the United States.

Such numbers are in compliance with our estimates for the Allied numbers in Europe. 43+7 US divisions mean around 600,000-700,000 troops out of the steadily increasing 1,000,000 in June 1944.

The previous document also states that "Britain could support 3,885,000" for their military establishment. With the usual 75% ratio, that means around 1,000,000 maximum troops mobilized from the British.

In short:

- The US should have the equivalent of 90 divisions, or 1,500,000 troops, and a low manpower growth.
- The UK should have a maximum of 1,000,000 among already deployed divisions AND manpower pool.
- There should be 600,000 Allied troops in France.
- There should be 400,000 Allied troops in Italy.


2) THE PRESENT IN-GAME SITUATION

i) There are 33 Allied divisions in Italy:​

NumDivs (of which X are brig.) TypeOfDiv

16 (12) Motorized
5 (3) Armored
4 (4) Mech
3 (2) Infantry
2 HQ
2 (2) Mountaineer
1 Para

All of them at 100% strength except for the Brazilian Exp. Forces at 1 strength For a total of 345 manpower or 345,000 troops.

ii) There are 36 Allied divisions in France:​

NumDivs (of which X are brig.) TypeOfDiv

9 (9) Armored
3 Para
13 (11) Motorized
7 (7) Mechanized
4 HQ

All of them at 100% strength for a total of 382 manpower or 382,000 troops.

iii) The USA have 148 divisions.​

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

10 (10) Armored | 90=(90)
59 (10) Garrison | 472=392+(80)
10 HQ | 50
21 (21) Infantry | 252=(252)
6 (6) Marines | 102=(102)
18 (18) Mechanized | 216=(216)
20 (20) Motorized | 240=(240)
4 Paratroops | 60

Except for 7 Garrison divisions which are at 50% strength, all of these divisions are at 100% strength. This means that they total 1,450 manpower, or 1,450,000 troops.

While this seems to be close to the estimate of 1.5 million troops we gave as max mobilization to the US, there is a nasty element: 30% of the US Army is made up of Garrisons, of which only 7 divisions protect the Pacific islands.

This is way off the "90 divisions-43 for the war in Europe, 7 for North Africa, 22 for the Pacific, and 18 for the continental reserve." proportions.

Another element out of place is the US production queue. Alongside shipbuilding, there are a lot of Mechanized and Armored divisions being built. As we have mentioned, the United States are not the Soviet Union, and by this point of the war the US already have all the divisions they wanted to form for the war.

Finally, the US manpower pool. It has 1280 manpower with a daily increase of 1.25. This is too high.


The UK has 92 divisions.

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

18 (9) Infantry | 198=90+(108)
41 (21) Motorized | 452=200+(252)
10 (4) Armored | 78=42+(36)
2 Paratroop | 30
1 (1) Mountaineer | 17
4 (2) Garrison | 36=16+(20)
5 HQ | 25
11 Militia | 55

All of them are at 100% strength, totalling 891 manpower or 891,000 troops. This is somewhat close to our estimate of 1 million maximum mobilization for the UK. Their placement seems fair too, as the majority of the UK forces are in the UK, France and Italy.

The only issue is that the UK has a manpower pool of 485, with a daily increase of 0.75. This is a bit too high.


3) THE PROPOSED SOLUTION​

The solution to the various problems here is rather tricky. We assumed that the strength of the UK&US Armed Forces are quite right, yet we have to assign more troops in France and Italy and curb the manpower growth of the Allies. So, before we start with redefining the number of divisions in France and Italy, we need to modify the UK&US Armed Forces accordingly, thus starting from point iii).

iii)​
First, we need to erase the production of every land division and cut the 1280 manpower to 300 and halve the US manpower growth.

We remind the "90 divisions-43 for the war in Europe, 7 for North Africa, 22 for the Pacific, and 18 for the continental reserve." proportions again. This means around 50 divisions for the war in Europe, 22 for the Pacific and 18 for continental reserve. In percentage terms, it means that 55% of the US Army should be in Europe, 25% in the Pacific and 20% in America.

With this in mind, we check the US Army force distribution. 59 Garrisons are way too many. Out of that 20% in America, 10% should be represented by Garrisons; out of that 25% in the Pacific, 5% should be represented by Garrisons. This means that 15% of the US Army should be made of Garrisons. In order to accomplish this we won't disband these divisions, instead the 59 garrisons' max strength will be capped at 30%. So, if they were worth 472 manpower first, now they'd be worth 141. Keeping in mind that we have to keep the original 1,500,000 troops of the US Army in place, it means that we now have to allocate 330,000 troops (330 MP) elsewhere.

Second: the US have 26 non-garrison divisions in US soil, mostly Mechanized and Motorized. Plus, there are 46 Garrison divisions in the US mainland and Panama, which, at 30% strength, roughly mean 135,000 troops, while the 26 non-garrison divisions are about 300,000 troops. 435,000 troops on American soil is somewhat an acceptable amount, considering that several of these 26 divisions, such as the Trident and the 8th Armored Division, were still in the training phase. They all have 35 experience, however. This value should be lowered to 10.

We still need to allocate 330,000 troops. Once again, we need to create 30 new divisions: 10 in France, 7 in Italy and 13 in the Far East.

As for the UK, the manpower pool of 485 should be reduced to 200, and the daily increase halved.

ii)​
There currently are 382,000 troops in France. With 110,000 from the US, it's now 482,000, which is still 120,000 short of the intended target. This calls for the creation of 10 British divisions in France. Since the British Army is 891,000 strong, and our margin is 1 million, this seems appropriate.

i)​
There are 345,000 Allied troops in Italy while we need more than 410,000. This is automatically solved by iii), as 7 new US divisions should bring the tally to 420,000.

In the end, we have curtailed the Allied manpower growth and maintained the US & UK Armies' respective strength (1.5 million and 1 million) but we have shifted US troops from American soil (i.e. from garrisons) to France, Italy and the Far East and we have created some more UK divisions in order to give justice to the strength of 1 million Allied troops present in France and Italy by June 20th 1944 - more than the current 700,000.
 
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CHINA AND JAPAN​

1) THE ANALYSIS​

- Second Sino-Japanese War.

Historically, the National Revolutionary Army was unable to mount any significant large-scale counter-offensive against the IJA - such is the case of the failed 1939-1940 Winter Offensive. This is due to several factors: leadership issues, disorganization, poor equipment and training, limited military-industrial capacity. Moreover, the Second United Front between the Kuomintang and the Communist Chinese Party was a precarious one, even resulting in open fighting in 1940 and 1941: there was no direct collaboration between the two factions, which instead sat on the fence waiting for the inevitable resuming of the Civil War as soon as the Japanese menace would be over.

Thus, the NRA, unable to carry out any determined counter offensive, adopted the strategy of trading space for time along with scorched earth tactics, also winning several battles which earned the Chinese the prestige from the Allies.

By 1941, the IJA had suffered consistent losses and only nominally controlled most of north and coastal China, yet partisan activity was extremely high in the controlled areas.

Allied support in terms of supplies, however, was very limited. Sea routes to China were closed, and so was the Burma Road from 1942 to 1945; when the Xinjiang warlord turned anti-Soviet in 1942, the Soviet Union refused to allow the United States to supply China through Kazakhstan, which means that the Chinese government never had the supplies to mount any major counter-offensive - nor it had the necessary industry to produce them.
The only viable route was an aerial one: The Hump; over the course of three years, Allied transport aircraft delivered 650,000 tons of supplies over the Himalayas.

By 1944 the IJA had made little progress, and so 400,000 men were mobilized. The beginning of Operation Ichi-Go in April 1944 broke the impasse, as 500,000 men under 17 division would bring Hunan, Heinan and Guangxi under Japanese control. Even though the Japanese scored a decisive tactical victory, the IJA no longer had the strength to push onwards, and the Japanese mainland was under threat of aerial bombardment nevertheless.

The National Revolutionary Army (NRA) employed 4.3 million regulars in 515 divisions. The average NRA division had 4-5 thousand troops; Chinese forces largely lacked artillery and heavy weapons, meaning that they needed a manpower ratio of 4:1 to achieve a 1:1 firepower against Japanese forces.
The Communist Chinese Forces employed around 1.3 million soldiers in the Eight Route Army, New Fourth Army and irregulars. The grand total is 5.6 million Chinese soldiers.
Chinese military casualties were 3.2 million soldiers.

The Imperial Japanese Army had 3.2 million regulars. Japanese divisions ranged from 10,000 to 20,000 men. By December 7th 1941, the IJA had 51 divisions, of which 35 in China, and 39 independent brigades, of which 38 in China. This represented roughly 80% of the IJA's manpower.
The Collaborationist Chinese Army, provided by Manchukuo and the other Chinese puppet regimes installed by Japan, reached a maximum strength of 900,000. They were mainly assigned to garrison and logistic duties in their own territories, however, due to low morale and Japanese distrust. They fared poorly in skirmishes against the NRA.
Japanese military casualties were 1.8 million, of which 0.5-0.9 in China.

Sources: (1) (2)


2) THE PRESENT IN-GAME SITUATION

-- NRA

-Nationalist China has 87 divisions.

Current NatChi MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 538, and 2170 spare manpower. That equals to around 0.53 million troops arranged in 87 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

65 Militia | 325
17 Infantry | 170
4 Cavalry | 36
1 Motorized | 8

They are all at 100% strength except for one Motorized division.

-Shanxi has 13 divisions and no industry.

Current Shanxi MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 73, and 665 spare manpower. That equals to around 77,000 troops arranged in 13 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

11 Militia | 55
2 Cavalry | 16

They are all at 100% strength.

-Xibei San Ma has 9 diviisons.

Current Ma MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 57, and 2170 spare manpower. that equals to around 57,000 troops arranged in 9 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

6 Militia | 30
3 Cavalry | 27

They are all at 100% strength.

-Guangxi has 9 divisions.

Current Guangxi MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 55, and 665 spare manpower. That equals to around 55,000 troops arranged in 9 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

7 Militia | 35
2 Infantry | 20

They are all at 100% strength.

-Yunnan has 7 divisions.

Current Yunnan MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 35, and 665 spare manpower. That equals to around 35,000 troops arranged in 7 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

7 Militia | 35

They are all at 100% strength.

-- CCP

- Communist China has 10 divisions.

Current ComChi MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 89.3, and 330 spare manpower. That equals to around 89,000 troops arranged in 10 divisions:

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

5 Infantry | 50
4 Militia | 20
1 Mountaineer | 15

They are all at 100% strength.

--

Overall, the Chinese employ 847.3 manpower or 847,300 troops, of which:

---TOTAL - 847,300 - 135 divisions
--NRA - 758,000 - 125 divisions
-NatChi - 538,000 - 87 divisions
-Cliques - 220,000 - 38 divisions
--CCP - 89,300 - 10 divisions

Also, the Chinese have a reserve of 6,665 manpower or 6,665,000, of which:

---TOTAL - 6,665,000
-- NRA - 6,335,000
- NatChi - 2,170,000
- Cliques - 4,165,000
-- CCP - 0,330,000

Giving a grand total of 7.5 million.


-- JAPAN

Japan has 129 divisions. Current Japan MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 1300, and 735 spare manpower. That equals to around 1.0 million troops arranged in 129 divisions (~50 of which are in China and Korea):

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

64 (5) Infantry | 650=590+(60)
17 (15) Garrison | 166=16+(150)
12 HQ | 60
4 Cavalry | 36
4 Armored | 28
3 (3) Motorized | 36
2 (1) L. Arm | 16
1 Para | 15

Except for 5 infantry divisions and 1 para, they are all at full strength. The IJA therefore employs 950 MP, or 0.95 million soldiers.


Manchukuo has 10 divisions. Current Manchukuo MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 24, and 100 spare manpower.

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

6 Militia | 30
4 Cavalry | 36

All of them are understrength; in total, Manchukuo fields a 25,000 strong army.


Mengkukuo has 3 divisions. Current Mengkukuo MP assigned to Military (divisions) is 19, and 100 spare manpower.

NumberOfDivs (of which X are brigaded) TypeOfDiv | Total MP = MP+(BrigMP)

2 Militia | 10
1 Cavalry | 9

All of them are at 100% strength; in total, Mengkukuo fields a 19,000 strong army.


3) THE PROPOSED SOLUTION​

There is a relevant difference between historical sources and the scenario numbers. We will assume that by June 1944 (Operation Ichi-Go is still in progress) the NRA has mobilized a total of 4 million men, and the CCP 1 million, and that a total of 2.7 million died, leaving us with 2.3 million out of 5. In theory, this means that we want enough divisions to fill 5 million men in, that are damaged enough to actually host 2.3 at present. Since most of them would be Militia, and a Militia division hosts 5,000 men in HoI, this means we'd need 1,000 divisions at 45% strength. We're not going this way because of:

1) CPU strain: there already are more than 1,500 divisions all over the world. 2,500 divisions would slow the game down at an unbearable speed.

2) Micromanagement: nobody is going to handle 1,000 Chinese divisions.

3) stacking penalty: we need to achieve a 4:1 firepower ratio, and such an army would never reach such a ratio.

Therefore, we need to operate with some abstraction. Since we do not to modify game files (this is a scenario: as such, it must work with vanilla AoD, not with a specific mod) we cannot modify the quantity of manpower required to build a militia division. We could just set a militia division requirement to 25 manpower, and we would just need 250 divisions. Since this is not possible, we need a compromise between realism and gameplay.

We're going to scale the numbers down to 60% of their true value: 1.6 million out of 3 million. Almost all of them will be '18 Infantry divisions. This translates to 300 divisions at 55% mean strength; then, a reserve of 2.5 million (2500 MP) in the manpower pool. We're also going to remove techs 1040, 1030, 1020 (Infantry '41, '39, '36) and the AI warlords annexation events: cooperation among the various Chinas must be difficult.


Uploading an image depicting text that I have written is a bit silly, I know.

Out of the 5.6 million soldiers, 1.3 were under the Communist forces, representing 23% of the total Chinese strength; in the standard 1944 scenario the ratio is close to 10%. In this revised version, Communist China will receive 60-65 additional divisions and a rather large manpower pool, so to become a dangerous rival to Nationalist China.


Same goes for Japan. We assume Japan has 5 million regulars in the IJA by 1944. The 60% ratio implies it should be represented with 3 million soldiers. Also, by 1941, 80% of the IJA was in China; due to the embitterment of the Pacific War and to subsequent conquests in Indochina, we suppose that by 1944 only 65-70% of the IJA was stationed in China, and then 15% in the Pacific and 15% in the Japanese Home Islands.

In short, Japan should have:

3,000,000 soldiers in ~270 divisions:
-1,950,000 (~172) in China
-450,000 (~41) in the Pacific
-450,000 (~41) in Japan

Almost all of them should be brigaded, to represent firepower superiority to the Chinese forces.

As for the Collaborationist Chinese Army, we assume it had 600,000 soldiers by 1944: that's 360,000 with the 60% ratio. In order to represent their lack of morale and equipment, they shall be either garrisons or '18 infantry.

Manchukuo shall have 220,000 soldiers in 22 divisions, and Mengkukuo shall have 140,000 soldiers in 14 divisions. Both shall no longer have '41 Infantry tech, but solely '18 Infantry tech.
 
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journ21

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my oh my, Germany is going to get a very large load of divisions.
 

DvD-IT

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Don't worry, changes are planned for the Soviets and the Allies too. Currently, the Soviets enjoy a 2.7:1 numerical superiority all over the Eastern Front, while even by September 1944 (after Bagration) the ratio was 1.6 - 2:1.

2nd post updated - German Tank Divisions.
 
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Easy1

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Your scientific approach here is great. This is gonna come out gooood ;)
 

DvD-IT

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journ21, Easy1 - Thank you. I'm glad someone likes boring walls of texts.

4th post updated - Allied manpower. This is one heckuva post.

I'm finished with the most important analyses. Soon I'll begin to carry out what I described (i.e. modify the game scen.)
 
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Enver Pasha

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A small question/suggestion here, is Bremen supposed to have level 10 coastal fortifications? It isn't even assaultable by sea and the French Coast only has level 4 fortifications.
 

DvD-IT

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Enver Pasha - It says 'coastalfort = 12'. Don't know why it's there but it doesn't matter, it's been removed. Thanks for the suggestion.

And now a couple screenies.

I'm done with Germany. Added 200 divisions and modified some 70 divisions' strength levels. Next up: the Soviets.







 

DvD-IT

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Germany & Soviet Union finished. It's now time for the Allies.

Did a quick test with the Soviet Union. Launched Bagration on June 22nd and screened the monthly progress from June 22nd to September 22nd. The operation was sometimes challenging as Army Group Centre offered stubborn resistance, especially at the beginning, but then slowly crumbled under the hammer of more than two hundred Soviet divisions, reaching the outskirts of Warsaw by the end of September.

The operation has been a complete Soviet success, having retaken almost all the territory once conquered by the Axis; massive casualties have been inflicted to the Germans, and part of Army Group North has been isolated in Tallinn, after the capture of Riga split the German forces in two.



Losses on both sides have been staggering, mostly due to German heavy resistance, but it resulted in more German casualties than Soviet ones, thus depriving Germany of her last, precious manpower reserves.

 
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DvD-IT

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  • Europa Universalis III Complete
  • Crusader Kings II: Sons of Abraham
Not yet. Air power is not my forte (i wish it were abstracted...), and I don't know if there really is anything to balance there. Suggestions are welcome.

Version 0.1 released
Link is in first post​

It's a very early version, but the basics are there. It will most probably have balancing issues that need to be fixed and I need input there (eg. Germans are too strong there, you should lower their GDE/delete some experience etc.).

Also, edited the Axis Minors' OOB and removed the huge Hungarian and Bulgarian IC; besides, they couldn't even supply their IC.