1944 carrier in 1941

[Denkt]

Today I made a comment about that you can get the 1944 carrier in 1941, here I will try to prove to you that I may be correct. I am a bit tired so I may have done some things wrong.

By studying the Wednesday stream Im pretty sure this is pretty close to how long something will take to research:
B*(1-R)*(1+2*(H-C)*(1-A))

• B is the base cost of the technology (in days)
• R is the research cost reduction, all things that give research cost reduction is added together (this is really powerful).
• H is the historical year for the technology and C is the current year
• A is the ahead in time penalty reduction.

What I wan't to get the 1944 carrier so early is 50% research cost reductions to carriers from national focuses, I think Japan have two suchs reductions and make a good example for this.

Lets say the base cost is 200 days to research a carrier no matter which carrier it is, lets say Japan start with 1922 carrier researched but not 1936 carrier.
At 1936 Japan have a 5% tech cost reduction from its trade law

You start with researching carrier 1936 on day one. 200*0.95 = 190 days
It take you 190 days to research carrier 1936.

By that time you have completed a national focus that give you 50% cost reduction to your next carrier research. You have also gotten a naval company (10% tech cost reduction for ship) and first computer tech (2% tech cost reduction).

Your total tech cost reduction is 50% + 5% + 10% + 2% = 67%
You start researching carrier 1940 immediately after carrier 1936, 4 years ahead of time.
Number of days it take is 200*(1+2*4)*0.33 = 594 days so we are at mid 1938 and you are building 1940 carriers already, possibly 2 years before your enemies.

And now for the 1944 carrier which is started immediately after 1938 carrier, 6 years ahead of time, for such massive ahead of time research you switch to free trade which increase your tech cost reduction from trade law from 5% to 15% which is huge (if you did this then you researched 1940 carrier you could have saved nearly 200 days).

You have completed the next computer tech so your tech cost reduction is now 5% from technologies and you have also finished another national focus that give 50% research.

Your total research cost reduction is now 50% + 15% + 5% + 10% = 80%. The number of days it take to research 1944 carrier is: 200*(1+2*6)*0.2 = 520 days.

Total time research is 190 + 594 + 520 = 1304 days which is about three and half year, so you would probably have your first 1944 carrier ready in about 1940, and even faster if you could go free trade for 1940 carrier. Maybe better would be to pick the export focus law for both 1940 and 1944 carrier is it is balanced so you get both research bonus and keep a good amount of you resources.

As Japan however you need every advantages you can get and having the power of 1944 ships is probably needed to prevail.

 

[LordOfWar16]

Even tho it may be possible i highly doubt that it will be an smart tactic. Sure, sometimes it may end up very good tech rushing something, but straight up b-lining seems to be an waste of research time. Overall, we only have about 2-4 slots to begin with, with atleast one additional one being unlockable via the national focus tree. Researching doctrines and teching up your industry seems to be much more efficient to me. Researching better destroyers and cruisers would be important aswell, since you need to somehow protect your modern carriers overall.

Even if you strapped on alot of armament on your carriers like the germans basicly did with the Graf Zeppelin (never fully completed and dismantled and reused as coastal defense in norway) which basicly had the armament of 2 cruisers on it, it still wouldnt have a chance against an enemy fleet on its own.

Besides that, lets say you really have 1944 carriers in 41 and manage to build some of them. What use are they if you fill them with Ki-10, Gloster Gladiators or Heinkel He-50 for example, while the enemy already has deadly cruisers and modern fighter aircraft on their 1936/38 carriers.

 

[inteljoe]

You have to remember that a Carrier's ability to make war is through it's planes. I'm not sure how they will account for aircraft carriers, even still late war/jet naval aircraft.

 

[Denkt]

I used one of my 4-5 tech slots for 3 and half year to get a very very important advantage, I give very well up tanks and a few land doctrine research for such naval power. I can very well have decent or even 1944 aircrafts in the same time as 1944 carrier if Im willing to sacrifice alot techs such as artillery technology.

Japan is so dependent on its navy that I think such sacrifices is worth it.

 

[inteljoe]

Then we shall duel in Multiplayer!

 

[bigb4486]

Could be done, not very effectively likely. This isn't a RTS where you have a build order to get zealots out quickly. To make the most of these 1944 carriers, you'll need good aircraft as well as naval doctrines to use them effectively. You're looking at tying up 2 slots for the build up part of the war. You're going to be lacking in one or more areas. If you neglect the army, a timely invasion and occupation of China won't be possible. Where will you get your oil to build Shinano then? If you neglect the industry, how will you build up a navy capable of protecting this advanced ship?

Having a Shinano floating around in 1941 sounds great, I just think the sacrifice in tech will be too much to justify it.

 

[Denkt]

As I said before we need to choose what to get and what to give up, this naturally depend on which country we play as.

Japan is an island nation which mean that the navy is of extreme importance. The terrain and resources situation mean we can forget all about tanks (no resources to spare and poor terrain). Thats one tech tree we forget about, it don't even exist. Next we can not afford any aircrafts other then the ones that can be used by carriers because we neither have the resources or the positions for such luxuries, we need aircrafts that help us dominate the seas. Thats half a tech tree gone. We can probably cut away stuff from the support tech tree, maybe 2/3 of a tech tree gone. Infantry we can cut way mech.

The thing is to limit ourself to the most needed stuff but we will be really good in a limited field. Japan cant fight with the same tech as US. If Japan's ships is twice as good for their production cost and Japan's aircrafts are also twice as good, Japan can maybe do the needed damage to win the war.

Research is cheap, production is costly and combat is decisive.

 

[WSnova]

I don´t see a problem with this, you sacrificed a lot of other potential techs to rush for carriers.

I rushed crucial tech in HOI3 too.

 

[Denkt]

I think I can have 1944 carriers with atleast 1940 aircrafts and maybe 1944 aircrafts in 1941-42 (but I don't know if I should go with naval bombers or fighters). 1940 non carrier ships. Very decent production tech and very good naval doctrine.

For this I probably will lag behind in air and land doctrines. My infantry weapon may still be 1936 and so my artillery. No tanks, no large aircrafts.

I rather have 5 very useful techs instead of 1 very useful tech, 10 average techs and 39 useless techs.

1944 carrier is much better then older carriers. Fast (less ships that can reach it). More armor so its aircrafts can sink the enemy while it stay afloat. More aircrafts so I bring out more firepower for the same cost as an older carrier. Better operational range. And add in 1944 aircrafts, all maxed with combat experience against US 1936 and 1940 stuff. One such carrier can hold the firepower of 5 US carriers and can probably sink 5 for no loss, that is what Japan need. Not useless tanks and a sunken navy.

 

[Caesar15]

If you ignore the army then you fail in China. Of course that's workable but if you fail the army then how are you supposed to launch all those invasions that Japan historically did right before Pearl Harbor? Those were important after all.

 

[jaredstanko]

all numbers are being fudged with and none of us have played the game, so offering specific advice to the devs might not be wise, but i will say this

maybe a 50% cost reduction is a little high? 25% might be better. obviously the game balance is still being worked on, but if the devs like how powerful the 50% tech reduction is, they could make a 25% reduction apply to more techs before your bonus goes away.

also, this is just speculation, but what if the cost reduction from NF's doesnt apply to the formula the way you think it does? like, lets assume that with no bonuses researching a 240 day tech not ahead of time takes 240 days. lets say with a 50% reduction it takes 120 days. with a massive ahead of time penalty it takes 720 days. with a 50% tech speed reduction you would assume this number would now be 360 days. well, maybe the formula is different from what you assumed, and it actually takes 600 days? with the time reduction being additive instead of multiplicative, or applied in a separate step.

also, maybe this strategy completely bones the rest of your research. just speculating.

 

[TiberiusfromSWG]

I think I can have 1944 carriers with atleast 1940 aircrafts and maybe 1944 aircrafts in 1941-42 (but I don't know if I should go with naval bombers or fighters). 1940 non carrier ships. Very decent production tech and very good naval doctrine.

For this I probably will lag behind in air and land doctrines. My infantry weapon may still be 1936 and so my artillery. No tanks, no large aircrafts.

I rather have 5 very useful techs instead of 1 very useful tech, 10 average techs and 39 useless techs.

1944 carrier is much better then older carriers. Fast (less ships that can reach it). More armor so its aircrafts can sink the enemy while it stay afloat. More aircrafts so I bring out more firepower for the same cost as an older carrier. Better operational range. And add in 1944 aircrafts, all maxed with combat experience against US 1936 and 1940 stuff. One such carrier can hold the firepower of 5 US carriers and can probably sink 5 for no loss, that is what Japan need. Not useless tanks and a sunken navy.

do you really think that making one 44 carrier in 1940 can really take on 5 lvl 36-40 US carriers. didn't two us carriers, and some land based planes, sink four Japanese carriers of the similar tech level at midway?

don't get me wrong i like your thinking, and i love tech rushing. but i have found that tech rushing in HOI terms gives you the advantage in an equal numbers fight. Japan needs numbers, and superior aircraft. I wonder if just building a massive carrier fleet of 36 tech level and maxing out the airplane techs would be better?

 

[AlfredMV]

Research speed is additive not multiplicative. So researching 4 years ahead of time is 800% slower or 1800 days according to your calculations. With an 80% tech speed increase the total comes to 720% slower tech or 1640 days. Around 5 years or so. As time goes on the tech speed reduction decreases. That would take a lot of math but it's safe to say it would be very hard to be ahead of time more than a year or 2.

Research time = base * ((2 * years ahead of time) - research speed bonus) + base
If base is 200 days, years ahead of time is 4, and the research speed bonus is 80%
200 * ((2* 4) - .80)
200 * (8 - .80) + 200
200 * 7.2 + 200
1440 + 200
1640 days

If you researched at this rate continually it would be 4.5 years but since the ahead of time penalty drops rapidly, I would say about 2 years. The penalty drops about 15% each month.

 

[Denkt]

No it is multiplicative, you can see that in the stream.

 

[AlfredMV]

No it is multiplicative, you can see that in the stream.

The numbers are probably messed up due to the fact that there are literally 100% tech reductions and the fact that they've said it's additive before. Where in the stream?

 

[Denkt]

Wednesday stream. There is no 100% tech reduction, the closest is 100% ahead penalty stuff.

 

[AlfredMV]

almost everything in hoi4 is additive like in EU4. when it isnt its pretty clearly stated and shown in a different way

Perhaps Japan is super mega special, I meant what time so I can go look directly right this second.

 

[Umbaretz]

Isn't it better to rush actual plane tech than carriers?
If advanced planes couldn't use outdated carriers due to deck requirements (historical!) that'd be a whole different story.

 

[Denkt]

Japan is not used for the stream, its UK and Germany.

7 mins into the wednesday stream part 2 Johan hold mouse over concentrated industry IV which is 4 years ahead and the penalty is 612.4%.

At 8:30 Johan hold over Princess Royal class (3 years ahead) and it have 510% penalty.

In both cases Johan have 25% research cost reduction.

The cost could depend on that the each new year or even month the ahead penalty is reduced which the game take in account.

Germany go with computing machine, one year ahead and at 180% penalty with 10% tech cost reduction.

 

[Jorvikson]

I have a feeling a variant '40 is better than a vanilla '44