1936 real world steel production vs HoI4 steel production

[billcorr]

I agree. If coal counts then China should have much more steel.

Don't know too much about the correlation regarding real-world coal production and in-game steel resource values.

That would be a consideration to investigate if real world coal production correlates with in game resource values. Given that there's good correlation between HoI4 steel values and real world 1936 iron ore + steel ingot production , the likely answer might be "world coal production does not correlate with Hearts of Iron steel values" But here, I've already biased my research going into the coal question with a pre-conceived notion.

But come to think of it, it might be easier to just ask Paradox, "hey, how did you come up with the in-game resource values? Did real world coal values play a part?"

 

[misterderp]

Sorry I should have explained better my bad.

Ok. So the heat map demonstrates that the game's values for steel (by country) do a pretty good job lining up (correlating) with the iron ore and steel production data from contemporary US and UK sources.

Did I get that right?

Paradox accurately portrayed steel production (iron ore production) circa 1936.

Good on them!

(now Podcat, don't go messing it up and skewing the historical accuracy in response to certain nation's supporters chanting the Billy Idol refrain, "more! more! more!" Rebel Yell, 1983)

I will explain now without going into to much mathematical details.


Basically this. a 1 means there is a perfect correlation between the two variables in question. If one variable is higher the other also get higher according to a certain proportion. In a situation y=2*x or y=x, there is a perfect correlation between x and y if one variable is higher the other is also higher and always in a certain proportion either y is always 2 times bigger then x or in the example of y=x they are always the same.

This is why the units of steel of the game has a correlation of 1 with units of steel of the game because the values are all the same. This is also why I did not include the percentages of steel units they correlate via a certain proportion (aka percentage) with the absolute number of steel units in the game, since the percentage is derived from the absolute number of steel units that particular country has. This would thus learn us nothing extra from making that correlation.

Lower values mean there is a correlation but it is not perfect, If one variable increases in value the other also increases. but unlike the y=2*x example the proportion is not always the same e.g. if x =4 and y = 8 and when x = 13 y= 16. The variables show a very similar trend you cannot really encapsulate it with neatly in a simple equation that is always adhered to like in the perfect correlation. The closer this value gets to 0 the worse the correlation get.

A value of 0 means there is no correlation, a value of -1 would mean an perfect anti correlation that could be illustrated with y = -x if y is negative x is positive and the other way around. However this is not relevant to the heat map since there is no negative/anti correlation in the heat map.

And yes the game's steel values do a very good job lining up/correlating with the iron ore/steel production from the sources you have used in your excel file. Of course there is room for improvement. But as stated in the thread it could be that game play took precedence over getting all the numbers right.
All in all I would say they did a good job in trying to do justice to the numbers while also keeping the game balance in mind.

 

[billcorr]

I will explain now without going into to much mathematical details.

Thanks. Much appreciated.

BTW, what is a:

Looks interesting.

Analyzes saved games? Hmmm...could be useful for HoI4 perhaps.

 

[Windshear]

- Now factories receive penalty for each next lacking resource across multiple lines rather than max out at 80% by line

Industry - resource lack changes
To continue last weeks theme on industry we have a final change: currently production lines can get a max penalty of -80% due to lack of resources. That effectively mean that a resource lack can be combated by just having more available factories. We felt this was both unrealistic and was making resources less important than we wanted for big nations. Penalties due to lack of resource are now instead calculated by each missing resource over multiple lines and steadily get higher until they can actually get -100% penalty.

Sorry for the late bump, but I feel like 1.3.3's changes to factory output with missing resources should bring this sort of thing back into the spotlight. For those new to this thread, billcorr's post on the top of Page 1 has a great chart of Historical vs HOI4 steel.

 

[Skalman500]

Hi I thought I should share my 2 best sources of iron ore and steel production for Sweden, just in case somebody might need it:
THE IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRIES OF EUROPE
SCB Årsbok 1936

Hope we can get some good data to corroborate things, in case any larger mods are looking to make it historical.

 

[Vaspasian]

Not sure if anyone will read this, as this is an old thread, but I post it here anyway.

As a history buff I enjoy these discussions. I've played HOI since the beginning. I am Sure there is some reasoning for the direction that the HOI game has taken over the years (probably to simplify it in the most part). Having tinkered with and tested this version of the game extensively, I must report that the Economic and Resource system is broken.

It used to require a lot of management and was tedious to keep on balance, so again I understand the reason for changes to make it less of a drag on the game. Quite frankly the Economic system was never very good.

As a test, I wrote a mod that removes all resource requirements from equipment production. After several test games, I was mystified by the results. There was minimal effect on the actual production rates and game outcome. So, all of these discussions, from a historical perspective are interesting but wasted on this version of the game. I think everyone should save themselves the effort and disable the resource use for production.

I would like to see resources, like oil, effect supply chain (i.e. out of fuel), but that too has been removed from this version. Again this was done for the sake of simplicity, I am sure, but now Oil serves no purpose at all.