1936 real world steel production vs HoI4 steel production

[billcorr]

Then there's the whole US steel thing. Why does the US have less steel in HOI4 than she does historically? And no chromium for use in shipbuilding despite a healthy shipbuilding industry historically? I'm not sure.

It does appear that US steel values in HoI4 are less than their historic values. Alex Brunius reflected on that,

Examples of balancing factors:

• USA is generally nerfed in HoI to not be historically able of crushing everyone else on their own ( motivates 1426 -> 920 or -36% )

As far as I can tell, the US did not have a chromium industry in 1936. What about other minerals that in HoI4 might be counted as chromium, such as nickel? I'm not as certain about that as I was before. Previously, I stated that in HoI4, real world nickel production is represented in HoI4 as "chromium." I had concluded that by looking at a few large producers of nickel (especially New Caledonia) and observing that in HoI4, they are depicted as producing chromium. But I might have jumped to conclusions. It turns out the New Caledonia does, in fact, produce chromium, too. But it turns out that another island chain in 1936 produced a sizeable amount of chromium: The Philippines. Thus, in a future DLC that includes the Philippines, America could have access to chromium. But as Kozer stated (and echoed by Alex):

Game balance will always come before realism

Maybe it would make the USA too strong to have access to Philippine chromium.

Japan is already a weak as it is, seems like they could use some more steel to bring the numbers more in line with their historical production. And that's not even touching the complete lack of aluminum in all of Asia, making aircraft production for Japan impossible when it shouldn't be.

Right, in real life, Japan produced 4.21% of the world's steel in 1936. But in HoI4, Japan produces 1.12% of HoI4's total steel. The major nations will be rebalanced in the future. To prepare for that, a case could be made to increase Japan's in-game steel production. The same goes for Japan's access to aluminum, discussed here & here (Palau) and here (Manchukuo) .

Luxembourg, quite obviously you don't want Luxembourg gaining 10+ factories from trading away steel and building themself up as a "big" minor, would be silly.

Good eye. Yes, in 1936 production data indicates that Luxembourg was a steel producing powerhouse. But I don't know if reflecting Luxembourg's real world production in the game would cause an imbalance. Yes, if a player were in charge of Luxembourg, they might have fun with such an industrial dynamo. But I don't think the AI is sophisticated enough to be the mouse that roared.

Paradox is Swedish + Swedish iron ore was historically important and of quite high quality ( motivates 155 -> 202 or +30%

Yes, using the ore+steel averaging calculation, in-game Sweden was boosted by 30%. But I don't really know how Paradox calculates steel production for HoI4 (trying to figure that out is the main purpose of this thread). 10% of the HoI4 steel values are closely correlated with those nations' real world 1936 iron ore production. If Paradox were to have used iron ore production values for Sweden, then it could be said that Paradox applied restraint when calculating "steel" for HoI4 Sweden. In HoI4, Sweden is depicted as producing 4.7% of all HoI4's baseline steel. In 1936, Sweden produced 6.4% of the world's iron ore.

Could France's production of other materials (copper or similar) motivate their very high values?

France's HoI4 steel production may be 100% based on its 1936 iron ore production. In HoI4, France produces 888 out of 4,301 units of steel, or 20.6% of the game's steel. In 1936, France (which includes Algeria and Tunis) produced 20.72 of the world's iron ore. The correlation with iron ore could be a coincidence. But given that 1936 iron ore percent production correlates with five HoI4 nations, I'm thinking that Paradox did use real-world iron ore production for some of the in-game nations.

Regarding copper. I'm rethinking that. Again, I could have jumped to conclusions. In my initial look at 1936 steel ingot production values, there was no steel ingot production for Chile. "Well, everyone knows that Chile produces copper. So, the developers gave Chile some "steel" to account for that country's copper production." Then I looked at the iron ore production values. "Whaddya know! Chile scraped out a bit of iron ore in 1936." Chile produced 0.77% of the world's iron ore in 1936, compared with Chile's in-game 0.56% world share of "steel".

Could The extra steel in some of the Chinese minors be the cause for Japans lacking? ( To provide more of a challenge in China, and to motivate you into attacking China as Japan ).

China data was missing from my source, the US Geological Survey mineral yearbook. It is quite possible that Paradox might have had access to another reference for Chinese resources. They did a good job with other resources (oil and rubber) and that makes me think that they tried to do so with Chinese steel. Or, as you say, fabricating resources could be "bait" in order to motivate action in the game. I'm starting to think that Greece's ahistorical (as far as I can tell) resources are designed for the same purpose. (@Kriegsspieler for that idea of Greece being a "reward" for Italy.).

Most of the minor nations that got <20 steel and were not producing any ore or steel historically I wouldn't worry so much about. Steel is a good generic abstraction of having some domestic resources that can be bartered for resources used to build simple weapons with.

Steel is a good general abstraction. "Hey, Johan, Mongolia didn't have any resources in 1936, what should we do?" "Roll a d4 and that's how much steel it gets." "Ok, will do."

But some countries really did not produce anything. E.g. Afghanistan. (page 10)

I have a problem with the fact that production does not change over time (unless there's scripted NF) as it happened IRL. As war was going on in Europe, peripheral countries increased their production of raw materials. billcorr's post shows this: Brazil, Mexico and Spain doubled their iron production from 1936 to 1940. It may be harder to balance, but that's a integral part of the whole "world" thing in "world war".

Another source of data for HoI4 steel values were nations' latter years (e,g 1940 to 1945) production values. It might be that in 1936, a country might not have produced much, but as the war progressed, they geared up iron ore and or steel production.

Edit: Added link to @Antediluvian Monster 's comments about Japanese bauxite sources.

 

[billcorr]

I have a problem with the fact that production does not change over time (unless there's scripted NF) as it happened IRL. As war was going on in Europe, peripheral countries increased their production of raw materials. billcorr's post shows this: Brazil, Mexico and Spain doubled their iron production from 1936 to 1940. It may be harder to balance, but that's a integral part of the whole "world" thing in "world war".

With the newer national focuses, it appears that Paradox is willing to incorporate such developments. For example, Canada's national focus allows for a boost in steel production. That boost was historical (the oil boost? Not quite).

When Brazil and Mexico come up for a DLC, the ground work that is done are these forums will help advise the content of those nations' national focus trees. Looking forward to the Brazil enthusiasts establishing a thread to hammer out a national focus. I'll contribute. (I'll help with Sinkiang, too).

 

[Ringwraith_JP]

When Brazil and Mexico come up for a DLC, the ground work that is done are these forums will help advise the content of those nations' national focus trees. Looking forward to the Brazil enthusiasts establishing a thread to hammer out a national focus. I'll contribute. (I'll help with Sinkiang, too).

Count me in.

 

[Kliwarrior]

I have a problem with the fact that production does not change over time (unless there's scripted NF) as it happened IRL. As war was going on in Europe, peripheral countries increased their production of raw materials. billcorr's post shows this: Brazil, Mexico and Spain doubled their iron production from 1936 to 1940. It may be harder to balance, but that's a integral part of the whole "world" thing in "world war".

There are tech for increase production. They give (if maxes) +50% . I think that will partially cover the increment . Partially because here I suspect a balance decision. (As posted, some NF's might also cover specific situations)

 

[Gamer_1745]

There are tech for increase production. They give (if maxes) +50% . I think that will partially cover the increment . Partially because here I suspect a balance decision. (As posted, some NF's might also cover specific situations)

Yes, but would those nations really be able to research them? Maybe a few quick & dirty events that just give them the NFs for free?

 

[billcorr]

Bilcorr, do you mind uploading your charts (the excel file, not just the images)
TIA

Thanks to TinyWiking who adjusted the Xenforo forum software to allow excel spreadsheets. Fast support!

 

[karl87]

Seems like the axis gets a production Nerf

 

[Louella]

But I don't really know how Paradox calculates steel production for HoI4 (trying to figure that out is the main purpose of this thread)

I was thinking today, about this, and about your figures. I saw in the first thing you linked in your opening post, that the number for American production did not include "castings made by companies not producing steel ingots".

Something that occurred to me, is that the "steel" production number, isn't just the production of steel, but also, some kind of measure of how diverse a range of products can be readily made with that steel.

Like, a lot of steelworks would produce ingots, that are shipped out, then remelted by customers of those steelworks, to produce the things they want.
Other steelworks, steel mills for example, produce steel already worked into different shapes, that then are machined into products. Sheet steel, plate steel, that kind of thing.

Like, to make a warship of that era, would need steel plate of different sizes, armour plate, deck plate, boiler plate, and different steels for turbines, gearboxes and the like.
And for a tank, there'd be steel supplied as ingots, that would be melted and cast into engines, gearboxes, wheels etc. And steel plate to be cut and riveted/welded as armour/structure, and so on.

Rolling mills, that can supply large amounts of steel plate, make ship and tank building a lot quicker, than if the shipyard/tank factory has to remelt ingots and cast things themselves.

So maybe that alters some of the numbers. I don't know.

 

[No idea]

Are you willing to relocate to Stockholm? You should join the HOI IV team!!!! They are hiring Link.

I am fine with cooper being counted as steel as it can be used for the same uses (not rifle barrels, but many of the other parts of fire arms can be made out of it (look at early Maxim Guns it was cheaper at the time to use brass for many parts)) in some cases. The only real reason I can see giving resources to a country is if it is land locked & can't trade well (which it could trade IRL). Also because of the quality of Sweden's steel it has been changed to tungsten so that is why the Swedish steel is off so much.

To make brass you also need tin, so that would be another mineral to put into the "steel" label

 

[Louella]

Also, another thing. I was looking up on wikipedia, stuff about some of the larger industrial complexes that were in the UK. Was trying to figure out if Austin's Longbridge complex included a steelworks that would refine iron ore directly, or if they used ingots bought in from elsewhere. Seems like they must have used ingots, remelting and casting them into appropriate shapes, which is what I thought, but wasn't sure.

The Longbridge complex, during world war 2, built AP ammunition for AT guns, jerrycans, mines, depth charges, helmets, tank parts, aero engines, aircraft components, complete aircraft including light bombers, heavy bombers and fighters, as well as small arms and mortars.
How do you even begin to represent all of that in HoI terms, lol. It must be at least like 7 or 8 different lines.

Something I did find that was interesting, was that at one of the other major industrial complexes in the UK at the time, there was a recycling complex, that crashed Luftwaffe aircraft, and RAF aircraft, were brought for reprocessing at the complex, which was adjacent to one of the larger aircraft manufacturing plants as well. This painting was inspired by it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Totes_Meer

Really quite interesting, and also provides an explanation of how an aircraft factory can build aircraft despite not having a supply of aluminium - they're recycling crashed enemy planes !

 

[Kliwarrior]

Thanks to TinyWiking who adjusted the Xenforo forum software to allow excel spreadsheets. Fast support!

thanks a lot!

 

[parkerg12]

I think a fundamental issue with going with only completely accurate resource allocation is that in order for it to be accurate the game itself needs to be accurate and have an economic model to reflect it. for instance Afghanistan may have no actual iron ore production nor much industry historically in 1936. But in game they need to be able to field an army. in an alternate history where they do go on a conquering rampage the most likely way they would get weaponry is through arms deals....... which are absent from the game. so in order to make up or the lack of depth in some areas paradox needed to allocate resources differently in order to provide a better balanced game experience.

 

[Jamey]

Another source of data for HoI4 steel values were nations' latter years (e,g 1940 to 1945) production values. It might be that in 1936, a country might not have produced much, but as the war progressed, they geared up iron ore and or steel production.

I'd expect that later years numbers are factored in somehow. It makes more sense to do that than to have a NF to try to cover every fluctuation in resources.

Also, include me in the list of people who see game balance and incentives for conquest likely being present in the resources.

 

[Black_Shade]

I'd expect that later years numbers are factored in somehow. It makes more sense to do that than to have a NF to try to cover every fluctuation in resources.

Also, include me in the list of people who see game balance and incentives for conquest likely being present in the resources.

I don't know, whatever is going on with Asia needs to be looked at. Japan's resources are severely nerfed, and much of the resources Japan conquered are also not present- they literally removed all incentive for conquest. Why is there zero aluminum in all of Asia, when Japan was one of the worlds leading producers from bauxite deposits in Asia? Japan is already one of the weakest majors (if not the weakest) in the game. Nerfing them, and then on top of that nerfing the resource rich areas they conquered, doesn't make much sense.

Unless the goal is to try and put the Asian theater on the backburner even more than it already is to try and hide the (massive) AI issues that have always plagued the HoI series in Asia.

 

[lilunxm12]

Since coal was so common by WW2 I suspect the HoI4 steel is mostly made up of the latter two ( iron ore and steel mill capacity )

I agree. If coal counts then China should have much more steel.

 

[Gamer_1745]

To make brass you also need tin, so that would be another mineral to put into the "steel" label

Tin is a minor element in brass, if I understand correctly, & a critical element in other weapons production I think it could be also a Chromium substitute. What do those with better metallurgic knowledge think?

I know Tin Cans were recycled during the war I think more for the tin coating the cans than the iron they were made out of.

 

[No idea]

Tin is a minor element in brass, if I understand correctly, & a critical element in other weapons production I think it could be also a Chromium substitute. What do those with better metallurgic knowledge think?

I know Tin Cans were recycled during the war I think more for the tin coating the cans than the iron they were made out of.

As so many other minerals, the small amount you need is vital. No tin, no brass, as far as I know. At least that is how it was in ancient times.

 

[misterderp]

From the data of the excel file of @billcorr. A Pearson correlation heat map (correlation values shown in each square) Rows with missing data dropped.
Most of the percentage columns dropped (they contain little to no extra information: perfect correlation with the variable the percentage is derived from).

Personally I would say that the overall world production is pretty well shown by the units of steel that are present in the game. (lowest correlation 0.83 still pretty damn high).
We cannot really derive information about individual countries from this heatmap but that has already been covered by the spreadsheet. Just thought it would be a nice illustration of how the data looks an a global scale.

 

[billcorr]

Why is there zero aluminum in all of Asia, when Japan was one of the worlds leading producers from bauxite deposits in Asia? Japan is already one of the weakest majors (if not the weakest) in the game.

Good question. Assuming that the resources of Asia are not accurately depicted, why would that be?

One hypothesis is that the research that went into the game (and for the resources, the research is good) did not touch non-Western sources. How would one go about searching for old Japanese statistical abstracts, Chinese records, or Thai production figures? It is certainly doable. But it takes a certain amount of skill to look for such documents.

As for Japanese aluminum production, you might have seen the other threads on the topic.

https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...eir-shortage-of-aluminium-historically.994967
https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...ed-help-locating-scholarly-references.994370/
https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?threads/lack-of-resources.991548

 

[billcorr]

We cannot really derive information about individual countries from this heatmap but that has already been covered by the spreadsheet. Just thought it would be a nice illustration of how the data looks an a global scale.

Very nice.

Although I don't 100% understand the heat map, I take it that it is a method to illustrate how a bunch of different variables correlate with each other. Thanks for the summary that explains what it is all about:

would say that the overall world production is pretty well shown by the units of steel that are present in the game.

Ok. So the heat map demonstrates that the game's values for steel (by country) do a pretty good job lining up (correlating) with the iron ore and steel production data from contemporary US and UK sources.

Did I get that right?

Paradox accurately portrayed steel production (iron ore production) circa 1936.

Good on them!

(now Podcat, don't go messing it up and skewing the historical accuracy in response to certain nation's supporters chanting the Billy Idol refrain, "more! more! more!" Rebel Yell, 1983)