1.41 Best Battleship (endgame) (LordMagus, Demiare, Larknok1)

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LordMagus

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1.41 BEST ENDGAME BATTLESHIPS (strategic resources + 5 repeatable techs):

421 battleship or 431 battleship (as head to head they are nearly equal).

20170214131141_1.jpg

20170214131308_1.jpg

The naming scheme follows the Larknok method: Shield-Plasma-Shield Capacitor, so 422 = 4 shield, 2 plasma, 2 shield Capacitors.
KA = Kinetic artillery; P = Plasma; SC = Shield Capacitor



So, I know a number of people have read "Finding the absolute best battleship": https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...ng-the-absolute-best-battleship.989784/page-3

And the more recent: https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...p-crystal-forge-edition.997787/#post-22388635

Given Larknok's disappearance before completing the rest of the tests on battleship matchups, I've completed it in his absence. The current research question is what the most effective battleship design is against other battleships. Credit goes to both Larknok1 for his original thesis about battleships, and Demiare for all his hard work on testing all the matchups and ideas about armour usage.​

Hypotheses and Theory

The original hypothesis of this investigation was that heavier armoured variants would defeat heavier shielded battleships, based upon the original observation that the 120 variant defeated the then-meta 422. This was not supported by the results obtained, which suggest that heavier shielded battleships tend to defeat those with less shields. Summary of meta-battleship below, with LOADS of testing and theory following it.

The Demiare theory proposed that heavier armour and crystal forged plating, resulted in fewer losses to the the initial alpha damage, and therefore a numerical superiority for the armoured battleships would compound until they won. By observing the battles as they occurred, no noticeable difference in initial losses was initially observed without strategic resources and repeatable techs, between shielded and armoured battleship variants. When battleships closed into plasma cannon distance and the number of battleships dropped from 60-60 to around 30-30, the focus fire lessened. What this resulted in, was armoured battleships spreading their damage over the shielded battleships. These battleships using shields then used their shield capacitors to great effect, and they quickly tore down the armoured battleship's shield, and then focused down their hull.

For the assumed victories based on Larknok's hypothesis, I tested 4/16 assumed victories at random, and they are numbered from 1-16 below.
These included:
220 vs 321: Free win to 220 (9) F 3/3 321 won
120 vs 422: Free win to 120 (4) T 2/3 120 won
321 vs 432: Free win to 321 (14) T 2/3 321
422 vs 432: Free win to 422 (16) T 3/3 422 won

Therefore, some of the assumed victories may not be correct, proceed with caution.

Tests below were conducted with 60 battleships on each side, fought 5 times, with all tech researched, no admiral or fleet academy bonus. The winner of an engagement that was tested by either Demiare or myself is in bold and underlined. Assumptions tested at random only involved 3 trials.

Completed list of matchup testing (no repeatables or strategic resources). Free wins awarded by Larknok1.

5/5 = This ship type won all 5 times
120 vs 130: Free win to 130
120 vs 220: 5/5 220
120 vs 230: Free win to 230
120 vs 321: Free win to 120 (3)
120 vs 331: 5/5 331
120 vs 422: 2/3 120
120 vs 432: 3/5 432
130 vs 220: Free win to 130 (5)
130 vs 230: 3/5 230
130 vs 321: 5/5 321
130 vs 331: Free win to 331 (6)
130 vs 422: 5/5 422 (overwhelming)
130 vs 432: Free win to 432 (7)
220 vs 230: Free win to 230 (8)
220 vs 321: 3/3 321
220 vs 331: 4/5 331. 45/60 BBs lost when 220 won.
220 vs 422: Free win to 220 (10)
220 vs 432: 5/5 432
230 vs 321: 4/5 321. 55/60 BBs lost when 230 won
230 vs 331: Free win to 331 (11)
230 vs 422: 5/5 422
230 vs 432: Free win to 432 (12)
321 vs 331: Free win to 321 (13)
321 vs 422: 3/5 422
321 vs 432: Free win to 321 (14) 2/3 321
331 vs 422: Free win to 422 (15)
331 vs 432: 4/5 432. 51/60 BBs lost when 331 won
422 vs 432: Free win to 422 (16) 3/3 422


The overall trend of matchups that have been tested thus far is that the battleship with more shields tends to win. So 400>300>200>100, with the notable exceptions of 120 vs 422, and the 321 vs 422. All remaining assumptions that have not yet been tested should be considered in light of this trend.

How repeatable tech and strategic resource change the game
By adding in 1 of each repeated tech and all the strategic resources (excluding living metal) I redid
Demiare's previous tests of the 432 against max armour, which can now be reached by the series 220.

432 vs 220: 5/5 432. Median no. of 432 losses = 33 => 45% survival rate

Let's try refitting the 220 to a 210 to use 3KA + 1P to see if it deals with the shields better.

432 vs 210: 5/5 432. Median no. of 432 losses = 17 => 71.67% survival rate.


The 220 is better against the 432 than the 210, despite the earlier results collected by Damiare suggesting that using 3KA may better counter the 432 when strategic resources weren't used.

As repeatable technology is researched and strategic resources acquired, armour is easier and easier to come across. No longer will you require 5 neutronium armour to reach 90% armour. The reason that armour no longer appears to be the meta-battleship at 1 repeatable tech and resources, is that the difference between heavy shield and heavy armour is lower. Without any strategic resources or repeated techs, the armoured variant has 160 armour (90%) while the 400 series has only 80 (55%). This changes to 153 (90%) and 96 (66%) at strategic resources + 1 tier repeatable.


I won't test the series 200 any further, as after you've researched a few repeatable techs of the armour, you can achieve 90% armour with the series 300.

REPEATABLE 5: 300 VS 400 (90% armour vs Heavy Shield)
320 vs 432: 5/5 432. Median no. of 432 losses = 36 => 40% survival rate.
321 vs 432: 3/5 321. Median no. of 321 losses (when they won) = 49 => 18.33% survival rate. Whereas when the 432 won, median no. of 432 losses = 36 => 40% survival rate. So, random chance may be at work here, with the 321 winning if they get good rolls on their kinetic artillery.
322 vs 432: 5/5 432. Median no. of 432 losses = 36 => 40% survival rate

As the 321 appears to be superior, the 320 and 322 designs will not continue.

321 vs 422: 4/5 321. Median no. of 321 losses (when they won) = 36.5 => 39.17% survival rate.

422 vs 432: 5/5 422. Median no. of 422 losses = 46 (also the mean) => 23.33% survival rate

So far, the 321 is winning. Now, one final assumption will be tested. Whether it is in fact better to use 2SC if you have 4 shields, or 1SC and 1 crystal.

321 vs 431: 4/5 431. Median no. 431 losses (when they won) = 37 => 38.33% survival rate
321 vs 421: 4/5 421. Median no. of 421 losses (when they won) = 40 => 33.33% survival rate

So using 2SC with 4 shields may not actually be the best. 1SC + 1 crystal might be superior (though I admit that chance can play into how the 321 initially beat the 432). Therefore the 421 and 431 (shielded) appear to be better than the 321 (armoured).


Final Test (421 vs 431)

421 vs 431: 3/5 431, though you may as well flip a coin.
Median no. of 431 losses (when they won) = 52 => 13.33% survival rate. Median no. of 421 losses (when they won) = 35.5 => 40.83% survival rate. So while the 431 might edge out in most fights, when the 421 wins, it wins big. So really... either ship is great, it's too close to call. While the 400 series initially lost to the heavier armoured 300, by replacing the 2SC with 1SC and 1 plate, the 400 series edged out ahead.

Conclusion: Both the 421 and the 431 are the best ENDGAME battleships. If you are not using repeatable technology or strategic resources, use the 422.


Future Tests: Confirm the performance of the builds recommended against AI empires, as well as Fallen Empires. Then compare against the performance of cruisers, to determine if there is a meta ship type.
Disclaimer: This thread neither endorses or opposes the view that battleships are the best ship type for defeating other battleships. Cruisers will be tested in future against battleships.
 
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LordMagus

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Reserved. Will test some of the builds against AI fleet composition and Fallen Empires.


No repeatables. Possess garanthium, lythuric gas and teldar crystals. Tested without neutronium ore. Fleet = 60 battleships

Fighting the Xenophobic Isolationists


Xenophobes vs 422: 5/5 wins, median losses = 25, ranges from 22-28
Xenophobes vs 120: 5/5 wins, median losses = 14, ranges from 13-17
Xenophobes vs 220: 5/5 wins, median losses = 10, ranges from 8-13
Xenophobes vs 230: 5/5 wins, median losses = 10, ranges from 8-11
Xenophobes vs 321: 5/5 wins, median losses = 18, ranges from 15-20

If you're forced into a conflict with the Xenophobic Isolations or you want to fight them before you have neutronium and repeatable tech, use the 230 to minimise losses.
20170215181431_1.jpg
 
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LordMagus

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And then someone solves the Enigmatic Fortress and one-ups the 431.

This obviously wasn't tested with the DLC.
If you have the DLC, the best build would still be the 421 or 431 (upgraded to enigmatic deflectors) and using 1 dragon scale, you're welcome.
 

DCupcake

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Thanks for doing this, it helps to know what's most efficient.
This looks like it would have taken hours to test and work out! Thank you and your team for giving us these numbers and testing that which the rest of us are too lazy to do.
 

Alblaka

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Damn, this is some fine theorycrafting.
Albeit I'll still stick to making RP battleships (i.e. all kinetic with armor focus for 'brute' empires) for SP purpouses.

Interesting though, that shields > armor for ships which's speciality should, realistically, be armor.
 

LordMagus

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Thanks for doing this, it helps to know what's most efficient.
This looks like it would have taken hours to test and work out! Thank you and your team for giving us these numbers and testing that which the rest of us are too lazy to do.

Thank you for saying that, it took me 2 days of work, and I know it definitely took Larknok a long time with his initial thread, and Demiare with his tests.

Damn, this is some fine theorycrafting.
Albeit I'll still stick to making RP battleships (i.e. all kinetic with armor focus for 'brute' empires) for SP purpouses.

Interesting though, that shields > armor for ships which's speciality should, realistically, be armor.

Haha yeah fair enough, there's not really a NEED to use the best designs, unless you're trying to get an edge against insane AI. My educated guesses and previous assumptions made by myself and others were wrong on some points, so it really does make in-game testing irreplaceable.
Battleships get a lot of benefit from armour, sure. It's just that with repeatable techs and strategic resources, the difference between the full 90% armour and not wears away.
 

Larknok1

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Excellent work!

I apologize for disappearing. I was largely committed to doing school work for awhile, but I appreciate you taking over where I left off!

That said, here are a few worries I have with your report of the results:

The essential point of the full match-ups is not to make sense of which battleship counters which (the general theory I provided in the second thread predicts as much to a fair degree of accuracy), but to determine which ship type wins the most "even" match-ups.

Demiare and you were so kind to do the research, which yields these results (deleting every free win, because every ship was awarded 2:

120 vs 220: 5/5 220
120 vs 331: 5/5 331
120 vs 432: 3/5 432
130 vs 230: 3/5 230
130 vs 321: 5/5 321
130 vs 422: 5/5 422 (overwhelming)
220 vs 331: 4/5 331. 45/60 BBs lost when 220 won.
220 vs 432: 5/5 432
230 vs 321: 4/5 321. 55/60 BBs lost when 230 won
230 vs 422: 5/5 422
321 vs 422: 3/5 422
331 vs 432: 4/5 432. 51/60 BBs lost when 331 won

With this upset among the "free wins":

220 vs 321: 3/3 321

---------------------------------

Now, you should have probably included this, but this was essentially the point:

Tally (out of 7 match-ups):

120: 2 wins
130: 2 wins
220: 2 wins (after subtracting lost "free win")
230: 3 wins
321: 5 wins (after adding the added "free loss")
331: 4 wins
422: 5 wins
432: 5 wins

---------------------------------

These initial tests suggest the 300 and 400 series are king, as you said.

*However* (and this is a strong however)

In order to include tests on the 421 and 431, you would have to run another 17 tests.

421 vs 120: ???
421 vs 130: ???
421 vs 220: ???
421 vs 230: ???
421 vs 321: ???
421 vs 331: ???
421 vs 431: ???
421 vs 422: ???
421 vs 432: ???

and:

431 vs 120: ???
431 vs 130: ???
431 vs 220: ???
431 vs 230: ???
431 vs 321: ???
431 vs 331: ???
431 vs 422: ???
431 vs 432: ???

and then come up with the ultimate final tally.

-------------------------

Even then, as you demonstrated, this leaves out results from all the initially assumed "free" tests.

For a final report, 5 trial tests of all of the assumed victorious would be necessary.

Which leaves us with 16+17 = 33 tests still remaining to run.
 
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Larknok1

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Note:

I just ran tests on:

422 vs 431
422 vs 421

At no repeatable tech levels / no armor boosts (these shouldn't affect the results significantly anyways, all three builds have the same shields and armor)

In both cases, the 422 won consistently with approx. 50% survival rate.

The point of this being: the 33 tests (31 now) we don't have conclusive information about are the manner in which we determine the best battleship.

The categorical mistake you make at the end of your post is to claim a series of match-ups declares the victor, tournament style.

This is a mistake because your match-ups can be rearranged and you get a different result, as is usually true for Rocks-Paper-Scissors match-ups.

(My intuition at this point is that the 422, despite losing to a few ship builds that are optimally designed to counter it, will win more match-ups than every other ship type.)
 

LordMagus

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There wasn't much point looking at the 100 series any further, strategic resources + T1 repeatables remove it. Repeatable tech then eventually removes the 200 series. By the time you have a serious battleship fleet (and you've read about the effect of strategic resources) you'll probably have strategic resources and you won't be using the 100 series anymore.
I didn't touch the free victories for the most part, as the general trend was that the ship with more shields won.
 
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LordMagus

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At no repeatable tech levels / no armor boosts (these shouldn't affect the results significantly anyways, all three builds have the same shields and armor)

In your testing of 421 vs 422, how many trials did you perform to say that the 422 consistently beat the 421?
And I'm not sure there would be no effect. Consider that as more armour is stacked, the extra plasma will become more useful.

Also, I'm not 100% sure on the hull repeatable tech. If it's adding +5% hull and setting that as the new base hull amount for the crystal forged plating to then act upon, the 421 and 431 would see an advantage in this regard.

EDIT: Okay, I looked at the breakdown in the ship info. The 421 gets a 10% bonus to it's BASE amount of hull, so it's no longer 2400, it's 2640. Then this 2640 is increased by 35% due to 5 repeatable tech and the strategic resource.
421 hull = 3564
422 hull = 3240

I tested the 421 against the 422 using strategic resources and tier 5 repeatables.
The 421 won 5/5 times against the 422: http://imgur.com/a/yeUT3

As getting to tier 5 can take a while (200 years+) the more practical question is what the best battleship is at T1 or T2 repeatable, with strategic resources.

So really, the 421 is still king in endgame (not sure about 431), that's the caveat.
 
Last edited:

Demiare

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Well I think a lot and come to conclusion that we don't answer on question and don't found best battleship. Why? Because we don't have any numeric comparison - we don't used any score.

I know two ways to do it :
1) Create mathematical model and run it several thousand times.
2) Do enough experiments to create partially statically reliable conclusion myself.

I don't know maths behind Stellaris enough so can't use #1, leaving only #2.

So be it. I will do enough experiments and will post resulting battleship scores (yes, it will take some days of work).

As disclaimer - because of @#$% amount of work I will not post any screenshot proves, only tables with raw data I had received.

My current idea for raw score =

Code:
([amount of surviving battleships] + 0.25 * [amount of enemy loses in case of defeat]) * MAX( ([win ratio] - 0.33)*1.5 - rounded up to 2 digits ; 0)

And finally we get combat effectiveness =

Code:
[sum of all raw scores] / [mineral cost per BB].

_
A bit unsure about weights in formula but I always can change them later when get enough raw data :)

I will take 60 tests for each pairing to make amounts of survivors at least partially statically significant.

Wish a good luck and enough coffee to me :)

P.S. I know, I know that better to take 100 or even 200 experiments in that case of high random impact on results. Just @#$% with it, okay? :p

Also, I need help from everybody: please, share with me AI empire BB layouts from your endgame : how many plasma cannons & kinetic artillery they use? (I need that data to set weights)
 
Last edited:

LordMagus

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I think it's a matter of how 'certain' you want to be at the results. I don't need or look for certainty. From a 'this wins more than it loses' perspective, the 422 is better before repeatable techs and strategic resources are required (against other meta-battleships, not necessarily against AI fleet). I don't think the AI empires tend to use kinetic artillery, they use disruptors and plasma cannons.
 

Demiare

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We don't have not exact values of effectiveness and any economic calculations. Cmon, job is nowhere near to be done :)

Well, after I will get all raw data it will be super easy to add some weight coefficients for most common AI build... If anybody will provide them to me :)
 

Demiare

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And I have first screwdriver to throw into previous test results. :)

For 1xx series - 2 crystal-forged armor isn't optimal setup. 1 crystal-forged (or in case of my tests - weaker crystal-infused) combined with 1 shield capacitor work significantly better then 2 crystal-infused or 2 capacitor.

BTW don't expect results at least until weekend.

P.S. Paradox! Memory leaks? Seriously? :(
 

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For 1xx series - 2 crystal-forged armor isn't optimal setup. 1 crystal-forged (or in case of my tests - weaker crystal-infused)

Gotta love how you assume things one way, but reality (Stellaris) has a way of mucking that up. That means the 220 and 230 might not be as good as the 221 and 231.

I tested 1 crystal-infused set up previously because a reddit person asked if it was better to use 2 shield capacitors on the 400 series, or 1 crystal-infused and 1SC. In the case of the 400 series, 2SC was better than using crystal-infused.
 

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*Central processor (AKA brain) melted due a high temperature* :confused:






Duuuuuuh.... translation, please?o_O
 

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*Central processor (AKA brain) melted due a high temperature* :confused:






Duuuuuuh.... translation, please?o_O

Basically, the best Battleships, especially for fighting other battleships (which I've found the AI is fond of spamming), is Tach Lance + 2 L Kinetic Artillery and 2 L Plasma, with 4 shield modules and at least 1 capacitor.

There are some specific variations depending on the opponent (2 Shields, 3 plasma and Crytalling hulls instead of capacitors for vs. Xenopobic FAs for example) and repeatable techs, but the above should win the majority of equal engagements against other setups.
 
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