That being said, rebellions still are really poor as balancing forces. Suppose I have a restored Roman empire that controls most of the Mediterranean coast. Rebels pop up in say Syria. Even if I have to embark the army in Valencia, it doesn't take long for my army to make it to Syria and then to crush the place (unless the AI states get to intervene). Once you blob to a sufficient size, there are very few possible rebel groups that really represent a challenge. Syrian nationalists? It will be over in under a year. Catholic zealots? Well maybe if they get Italy + Southern France + Eastern Iberia ... but that makes it pretty hard if you have a smallish state where the majority of the country is wrong religion (and how on earth do you do something like France or GB in the reformation)? Do we really want rebellions that typically split the AI in half and not expect other AIs to jump on them? So maybe we give the Catholic zealots only a fraction of the provinces they might get scaling with revolt risk. Then again, once you are past a certain size blobs can beat down the rebel states with ease.
Under my proposal, there are potentially powerful rebel groups (revolutionaries, nobles, pretenders) that can literally rip a large country apart. They can be stimulated by using events to increase the resource drain of every province by a fixed amount. This can present a credible potential danger when a player tries to push things to the limit. Large countries will be less able to counter this kind of events, as their general level of development is lower. Under my proposal, large countries should be better at putting down nationalists, patriots and religious minorities, but more prone to country-wide rebels.
Remember, like with the Russia/Austria example above, you really only need a flatish number of men as your external army expenditures. Absent coalition balancing, you just need an army big enough to take down the biggest external threat - everything above that goes to rebel suppression. So say I'm a 100 province blob and I use half my army to beat down the external foes I have. I double in size to 200 provinces. Do I need 50% of my army? No, at most I need 25% now and more likely I need 20% or something (as I've removed resources from external threats and made them into resource providers for me). As I continue to grow, a lower and lower percentage of my military resources need to go to maintaining my expansion rate and it is fairly flat to maintain my relative expansion rate (true snowballing). So anything less than a huge percentage of the Empire - which is extremely unlikely to be any coherent set of rebels outside of pretenders - going up in arms is going to just be a quick war, maybe followed by sieging, and then back to the grind. Now you can make these rebellions more frequent, but we again get into the tedium business. At what point should I get a major rebellion every year? At what point should I get a major rebellion every month? This then gets back to the tipping point quality where if I can completely beat one rebel power before the other makes gains I don't have feedback, but once they start making major gains I have mass negative feedback as they start dipping into my gold and manpower. Likewise, rebellions during peace are massively easier than rebellions during war (if only because you can always optimally path and not worry about foreign troops killing your siege stacks). Something that will stop an aggressive diplo-expander will crush a warmonger; something a warmonger fears won't hold a candle to someone at peace.
I think it is a consensus that the absolute rate of expansion should increase for large countries, while the relative rate should decrease. A purely linear model holds the absolute rate constant, while a purely exponential model holds the relative rate constant. To make a proper model, it should be something in between.
The current game model is a buffed linear model, while the rebel faction model I am suggesting is a nerfed exponential model.
Then how is it nerfed?
- First of all, the difference in culture/religion. By widening the gap between the resource drain of same culture and different culture provinces, small countries can be given a chance to expand in their own culture more easily. The penalty of accepted cultures should be present, but much smaller than non-accepted cultures. This effect will only wane after the country size approaches 200 provinces, when every new province is in a different culture group, and it becomes virtually impossible to have accepted cultures anymore.
- The fact that large countries are poorer in a per-province or per-base tax sense. This is a natural slowing factor for the relative expansion rate.
- Culture conversion can help smaller countries pacify a province faster. Large countries can also do this, but this is under a linear model, and the relative benefit for large countries is smaller.
- If the above factors are not enough, then it is possible to add a "decadence" factor, which multiplies the resource drain for rebel suppression according the the number of provinces. Of course this need to be properly balanced, and the factor should not exceed 1.5 regardless of circumstances. It is also possible to have a factor smaller than 1 for small countries.
You have mentioned that countries tend to use a higher proportion of its military resources to rebel suppression. This may be true, but there it is not as serious as you what you are describing. I think a different hidden premise is missing between your depiction of the mechanism and mine. I have assumed that the resource drain for rebel suppression of newly conquered provinces should be higher than provinces that are long subjugated. The most important point is to make newly conquered provinces a net drain of resources rather than instantly amplifying the power of the conqueror (and the drain should be substantial for wrong culture provinces). This way, it would be difficult for an already large country to double its size in a few decades.
Combining the above, it should be possible to control the rate of expansion until the country controls half of the world, when the country will make a final push to annex every remaining country.
Think about it this way, certain players (somewhat defined by skill), certain playstyles, and certain countries can handle near perpetual war much more easily than others. This will always be the case. If you use a mechanism that only allows war as its only out, then those favored at war will be favored by game mechanisms.
Death by a thousand cuts sounds good for player balance, but it doesn't really work out. There is too much variability to balance things properly given how feedback works. What needs to happen is for the anti-blob mechanism to force players to either slow down or lose wars. Once the player faces no risk of losing whatever he does, all the internal balance in the world doesn't change anything. We may as well embrace that at the end of WC run it becomes a World vs You grudge match and winning is the crescendo of the game. I mean say you make it possible to take up to half any country regardless of size, but for every province above 5 you take, that country gets a huge buff to tax, manpower, morale, and discipline. You might be able to pull off an early WC, but honestly you'd already effectively won anyways. We really should avoid tedium just to make it so fewer people can claim they've done "X". Make the game challenging - where doing something is all about balancing costs and benefits - but not tedium (where you do the same rote routine to eventually get something easily).
The mechanism is based on military resources, but war is not the only way out. Under my proposed system, PU and vassals still gives you an easier time to pacify the newly acquired provinces, and infrastructure generates resources that you can use to pacify new provinces. Endless war may be the end-game scenario, but there are still lots of things to do even when the country has grown to 200-500 provinces.
Earlier in this post, I used the term "buffed linear model" to describe the current game. On the up side, it means easier balancing, and a strictly controlled pace of expansion, but on the down side, it means the tedium that you have denounced. As you have said, once a country has grown to a certain size, there is nothing that can make the player lose. If you force the player to continue to play according to a constant pace that you have defined, it would inevitably result in tedium. In my opinion, the game has little to offer to the player once this stage has been reached. When this eventually happens, I think the best way is to loosen the grip, and let the player continue all along to the final goal (world conquest). Of course we need to delay the coming of this point, and I have listed the measures that can be taken to serve this purpose. There is certainly rooms for improvement, but a nerfed exponential model is better than a buffed linear model in terms of getting rid of the late-game tedium.