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Yes, I am American, but that is missing the point: It is called HYPERBOLE, AKA what is fit for "public comsumption" in a propaganda campaign. My previous post was in that fashion, in case you were confused.
Honestly, if you think opposition to IL Duce was not major at this point in time, you have probably not heard of several plots by various groups to do away with him in the 30's. Consider this: most Italians did indeed agree with the territorial part of the Duce's platform, but not many agreed with the Duce himself. A sizable portion of the population would probably NOT stick their heads out to catch a bullet for these guys, especially if you make it clear that Italy will not be punished but "rehabilitated."
You also forget the fact that, even if we were to suppose that the Moose was popular in the historical year, you forget the fact that this is NOT the historical year. The Italian military had trailed, like a bloodied boxer, from one savage blow to another. It has lost the Horn of Africa, it has lost Libya, it has likely lost the Aegean islands, and it has lost numerous men and their equipment. In history, the solution was to stuff German "advisors" into Italian units in increasing numbers, due to the inability of Italy to absorb her losses.
However, there is no German alliance at this point in time. Such losses would have humbled Italian industrial and manpower bases, as they would struggle to replace the losses they take in spite of the fact that they are being cut down far more quickly than they can churn them out.
However, do not take my words for it, take your own:
In this update, you yourself show that the Italian people are growing weary of the struggle. They are becoming even more disillusioned with Mussolini than they were historically. They do not see the purpose of throwing their lives away for a war that they see as lost against a foe that is not worth fighting.
Mussolini is weak. Very weak. He knows this, and he is looking to keep his regime intact, even at the cost of the colonial holdings. Do not let him. With the Blackshirts this bad off, a hard strike might completely unseat them, if not destroy them. Once they are gone, you can declare the war over, and have Italy "rehabilitated to the community of Nations", likely skipping most of the occupation altogether.
You might very well have numerical inferiority against the Blackshirts, but even then you can hammer Greece and/or France over the head for their intervention (as Greece was never terribly keen on Mussolini's whole "New Roman Empire" drift, and France, from your posts, has been a bit fed up with standing on the sidelines.) Even not, if you can land a lot of men in one province, supported by the navy and air force (as you mentioned that the Regia Marina was pretty much KIA and the Regia Aeronautica is out of action), you should be able to hold the ground and then achieve local superiority and slice the boot in half, and begin to focus your moved to isolate and destroy one fraction of the enemy while keeping the other stalled.
It is not terribly easy, but, given the fact that the Italians will be spread out while you will be together, it is not likely to be that bad, especially given the unpopularity of the Blackshirts at this point in time, and the prospect of mass desertion in the military, if not defection!
And, secondly, you do NOT need to use foresight! USE COMMON SENSE!
Is a man who has repeatedly made angry, imperialist stances against Britain, against the Western Allies, and against many minors going to merely take it on the chin and sit down merely after being cracked in colonies? Pretty much every single intelligence report dated from this point in time (ie the time up UNTIL this point, not after) on this subject came to the conclusion that, in the case of a colonial defeat of Mussolini, he would merely wave a bloody toga, and use it to rally that mass of uncommitted Italians to his banner.
As a Prime Minister, you would have access to those documents, the pych profiles made of the Italian command and government, and thus that is NOT foresight.
The fact is that, Italy knows that it is at a weak position. Britain knows that Italy is weakening. Defection talks with the Royal family and other dissidents might have them create a "Rightful Gov't in Exile" sort of thing, in Libya (thus swapping ITA for RSI, and recreating ITA as a British ally and/or puppet in Libya).
You do not need to look ahead to know that, with Mussolini on the ropes, there is the possibility of eliminating his threat, and putting an allied government in Rome.
So, my overall analysis is: Trade your superior training and equipment, as well as concentration, against Italian numbers and dispersion, and roll up one half the boot, than the other. Try to get Greece and France in on the game, but above all USE THIS CHANCE!
A victory now will topple the regime of the Moose, and will set up a friendly government in Rome. The Italian people will, on the whole, likely accept this, and one of your major threats will either be eliminated or seek asylum in Germany or Austria.
Again, if you think I am using foresight in this, I am not.
You can tell Italy is wavering from intelligence and surrendered troops.
You can tell that Italy cannot replace her losses by both Intel and scouting.
You can tell how Mussolini will likely act from the profiling done on him in the 20's (which you would have access to, as prime minister).
As for the losses, they are always unpleasant, but, if you roll them up, they can be minimized, and, even more valuably, they will give your men and commanders a taste of modern warfare, and will make them experienced.
And, as for the mentions about Italy in WWI, they are some propaganda I would have used to showcase that Italy has fought hard to support the banner of democracy against absolutism (represented by Austria), and to ask the Italians in the military and at home what would the dead say about the Fascists in Rome (for clarification, some of them would likely support it, but many would not, and nobody said propaganda had to be 100% accurate, merely effective)?
That is my analysis, take it or leave it, but I do enjoy these discussion.
PS, could you read my AAR: Come and Take It?
Yes, I am American, but that is missing the point: It is called HYPERBOLE, AKA what is fit for "public comsumption" in a propaganda campaign. My previous post was in that fashion, in case you were confused.
Honestly, if you think opposition to IL Duce was not major at this point in time, you have probably not heard of several plots by various groups to do away with him in the 30's. Consider this: most Italians did indeed agree with the territorial part of the Duce's platform, but not many agreed with the Duce himself. A sizable portion of the population would probably NOT stick their heads out to catch a bullet for these guys, especially if you make it clear that Italy will not be punished but "rehabilitated."
You also forget the fact that, even if we were to suppose that the Moose was popular in the historical year, you forget the fact that this is NOT the historical year. The Italian military had trailed, like a bloodied boxer, from one savage blow to another. It has lost the Horn of Africa, it has lost Libya, it has likely lost the Aegean islands, and it has lost numerous men and their equipment. In history, the solution was to stuff German "advisors" into Italian units in increasing numbers, due to the inability of Italy to absorb her losses.
However, there is no German alliance at this point in time. Such losses would have humbled Italian industrial and manpower bases, as they would struggle to replace the losses they take in spite of the fact that they are being cut down far more quickly than they can churn them out.
However, do not take my words for it, take your own:
For Mussolini's government the relief that bomber's load was only propaganda was soon overshadowed by fear of what the population might make of the leaflets, the state controlled media was already struggling to keep a lid on the reality of the war's progress for the simple reason it didn't square with people's experiences. Too many families were not hearing from their fathers and sons, too many dock workers counting out more ships than they counted back in. While the MVSN 'Blackshirts' militias and the OVRA secret police could have undoubtedly kept a lid on the worst of any dissent it was clear that the Italian public would tire of the war far faster than the British.
In this update, you yourself show that the Italian people are growing weary of the struggle. They are becoming even more disillusioned with Mussolini than they were historically. They do not see the purpose of throwing their lives away for a war that they see as lost against a foe that is not worth fighting.
Mussolini is weak. Very weak. He knows this, and he is looking to keep his regime intact, even at the cost of the colonial holdings. Do not let him. With the Blackshirts this bad off, a hard strike might completely unseat them, if not destroy them. Once they are gone, you can declare the war over, and have Italy "rehabilitated to the community of Nations", likely skipping most of the occupation altogether.
You might very well have numerical inferiority against the Blackshirts, but even then you can hammer Greece and/or France over the head for their intervention (as Greece was never terribly keen on Mussolini's whole "New Roman Empire" drift, and France, from your posts, has been a bit fed up with standing on the sidelines.) Even not, if you can land a lot of men in one province, supported by the navy and air force (as you mentioned that the Regia Marina was pretty much KIA and the Regia Aeronautica is out of action), you should be able to hold the ground and then achieve local superiority and slice the boot in half, and begin to focus your moved to isolate and destroy one fraction of the enemy while keeping the other stalled.
It is not terribly easy, but, given the fact that the Italians will be spread out while you will be together, it is not likely to be that bad, especially given the unpopularity of the Blackshirts at this point in time, and the prospect of mass desertion in the military, if not defection!
And, secondly, you do NOT need to use foresight! USE COMMON SENSE!
Is a man who has repeatedly made angry, imperialist stances against Britain, against the Western Allies, and against many minors going to merely take it on the chin and sit down merely after being cracked in colonies? Pretty much every single intelligence report dated from this point in time (ie the time up UNTIL this point, not after) on this subject came to the conclusion that, in the case of a colonial defeat of Mussolini, he would merely wave a bloody toga, and use it to rally that mass of uncommitted Italians to his banner.
As a Prime Minister, you would have access to those documents, the pych profiles made of the Italian command and government, and thus that is NOT foresight.
The fact is that, Italy knows that it is at a weak position. Britain knows that Italy is weakening. Defection talks with the Royal family and other dissidents might have them create a "Rightful Gov't in Exile" sort of thing, in Libya (thus swapping ITA for RSI, and recreating ITA as a British ally and/or puppet in Libya).
You do not need to look ahead to know that, with Mussolini on the ropes, there is the possibility of eliminating his threat, and putting an allied government in Rome.
So, my overall analysis is: Trade your superior training and equipment, as well as concentration, against Italian numbers and dispersion, and roll up one half the boot, than the other. Try to get Greece and France in on the game, but above all USE THIS CHANCE!
A victory now will topple the regime of the Moose, and will set up a friendly government in Rome. The Italian people will, on the whole, likely accept this, and one of your major threats will either be eliminated or seek asylum in Germany or Austria.
Again, if you think I am using foresight in this, I am not.
You can tell Italy is wavering from intelligence and surrendered troops.
You can tell that Italy cannot replace her losses by both Intel and scouting.
You can tell how Mussolini will likely act from the profiling done on him in the 20's (which you would have access to, as prime minister).
As for the losses, they are always unpleasant, but, if you roll them up, they can be minimized, and, even more valuably, they will give your men and commanders a taste of modern warfare, and will make them experienced.
And, as for the mentions about Italy in WWI, they are some propaganda I would have used to showcase that Italy has fought hard to support the banner of democracy against absolutism (represented by Austria), and to ask the Italians in the military and at home what would the dead say about the Fascists in Rome (for clarification, some of them would likely support it, but many would not, and nobody said propaganda had to be 100% accurate, merely effective)?
That is my analysis, take it or leave it, but I do enjoy these discussion.
PS, could you read my AAR: Come and Take It?
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