The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

Chapter LXIX: From Hope to Confusion​

The results and aftermath of the 1936 Presidential election were neither unprecedented nor exceptionally controversial, the 19th century contains several elections with clear parallels, notably those of 1824 and 1876. That is not to say the results were straightforward, far from it, the distribution of votes and states was well outside the typical electoral patterns of the time, a factor that fuelled conspiracy theories as people struggled to interpret the results. Some of those theories live on to this day, for the simple lack of a more conventional explanation to otherwise inexplicable results.

Electoral College Winning Line - 266 Electoral Votes

Landon / Vandenberg - Republican - 262 Electoral, 44.1% Popular

Hull / Barley - Democrat - 180 Electoral, 35.9% Popular

Garner / White - State's Rights - 89 Electoral, 20% Popular

The first thing you will notice in the map and table above, after digesting the unusual distribution of winning states, is that Landon is just short of the electoral college winning line of 266 electoral college votes. As noted above this was not unprecedented, indeed in the election fever prior to the voting had been discussed as a distinct possibility. Under the 12th Amendment there was a clearly defined procedure; the candidates would be put forward to Congress, the House of Representatives picking the President from the top three candidates while the Senate selected the Vice President from the top two. All eyes therefore turned to the Congressional race where, it was believed, the State's Rights Party would not be able to produce such success, if only due to a lack of candidates outside it's main power base. The Senate results, being far fewer in number, were naturally the first to come in and soon showed that the Republicans would retain control of the upper house, however many observers noted that the State's Rights vote had held up better than expected, the party picking up half a dozen Senators in states across the South. Finally the tallies for the House elections were announced and a country struggling with the idea of a Presidential election not producing a winner was thrust the matching problem of a House election that left no one party with a majority.


As the country tried to digest the news the political power brokers from all sides began their calculations. Assuming no faithless electors the electoral college would not produce a majority for any ticket and thus Congress would choose the President and Vice-President, where the options began to multiply. In the Senate the Republicans had a majority, and there were only two candidates to chose from, so they could ensure that Vandenberg was selected as Vice President. However in the House all three candidates went forward and no party had an overall majority, therefore deadlock was a distinct possibility. Assuming the deadlock persisted, and the House couldn't pick a candidate before inauguration day, it would be the Vice-President elect Vandenberg who would serve as Acting President until the House could make up it's mind. It was against this backdrop that the negotiations began, the Republicans having the strongest mandate but the balance of power lying with the State's Rights leadership, who's deadlocking breaking House votes put them in the position of king makers.

The negotiations between the Republicans and the State's Righters were initiated by Vandenberg, due to his favourable views on increasing the power of the states he was viewed as an ideal 'link man'. Somewhat amusingly however it soon became apparent the price of the Righters support in the House for Landon was the Vice Presidency for their candidate. Despite Vandenberg obviously trying to pour cold water on the idea, this offer formed the basis of the negotiations as it served the leadership, if perhaps not the candidates, on both sides. For the Republicans the price, while high, was not extortionate, certainly not compared to the risk of the Righters rejoining the Democrat fold and letting Hull into the White House. From a practical perspective they believed that the office of the Vice President could be sidelined by a skilful Chief of Staff while a 'bi-partisan' Presidency would allow them to spread the blame should anything untoward crop up. For the president himself the prospect of the inexperienced, and low profile, White instead of the combative Vandenberg was particularly appealing, more so as White's views on foreign policy were far closer to Landon's than the absolute isolationist views of Vandenberg.

For the Righters themselves, and particularly the dominant Tammany Hall grouping, the Vice President was as high as they could practically aim given the strength of their hand; the key cabinet posts that were arguably more important than the Vice Presidency were clearly off limits. More importantly White was rapidly becoming a favoured son of the wider party, without the baggage of Garner's disastrous term as Vice President he had embraced the party's platform with the vigour of a convert, something the party leadership had happily exploited on the campaign trail. Much to their surprise the party's platform, having started as a cynical ploy to aid electioneering, had actually had resonated with large swathes of the country, the message getting home to those disillusioned with Washington regardless of President. By the end of the campaign it was the enthusiastic and compelling White, not the distrusted Garner, who was the big draw at the rallies, a fact noted by a leadership more than aware of Garner's shortcomings. Pushing White forward thus pleased the emerging 'base' of the party and gave the party an untainted figurehead, one who's profile could only grow higher over the coming years.

Thus a deal was hammered out, Alf Landon would be President while George White would be his Vice President, the cabinet beneath them would be Republican dominated, though the Righters did get the Department of the Interior and the Department of the Navy. While the latter traditionally a key post the Republicans made it clear Garner's promises of naval expansion were not on the agenda, pushing the Navy down the tree significantly. Conversely the former was generally considered a political backwater yet was a key Righter's target, officially because it was a post the Republicans would be prepared to give up, however the real reason was the department's role as gate keeper to all federal land. While the Departments of Labour and Commerce would attract the attention, all of Landon's commitments to federal public works and rural electrification would have to go through the Department of the Interior, giving it power and influence beyond it's normal remit. More importantly with the Republicans determined to break up the notorious Delaware Valley Authority most of the DVA's responsibilities and records would end up with the Bureau of Reclamation, an agency of Interior. The Righters were naturally keen to retain control of such a source of power and influence, not to mention the chance to ensure the inner workings of the DVA remained suitably obscure. This pattern was repeated down the government as the experienced Righters, many of whom had been with Garner in the White House, out-manoeuvred Landon's staff who

There was, of course, the little matter of how to constitutionally arrange the deal. While Landon's progression to the Presidency could be ensured by letting the system run it course till the Republican and Righters House vote could confirm him, getting White into office would require more creativity. The solution was to convince Vandenberg to publicly pull out, the leadership making it clear he could either leave voluntarily and be rewarded later or be forced out and suffer accordingly. This left the way clear for the Republican Electoral College voters to switch to White, an option perfectly acceptable under the constitution despite Democrat complaints of the moral problems with 'faithless electors'. As Landon and White prepared for office their first problem was, somewhat surprisingly, the US delegation to the Amsterdam Conference. Despite the US presence being little more than an electoral stunt by Garner the new administration was determined to take it seriously, to the extent that one of the conditions from the Republican's in their negotiations was that White be despatched as head of the delegation. The conference would be the first indication of exactly what Landon's 'Moral Neutrality' would mean in practice, by sending the Vice President elect Landon was sending a signal that the US intended to engage more with the outside world, what was less clear was how meaningful that engagement would be and if it would extend beyond words into meaningful actions.

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Notes;
So Landon is President with White as his VP, the popular vote percentages are exact from the thread election while the states are as per the specific votes (for those that tied I used the popular vote percentage to divy them up). Bit of a mess, but that is what you all voted for.

The P/VP combo should prove fun, particularly when Alf finds out just how dodgy some of his new partners are. That said he doesn't have a lot of choice, the Righters (couldn't think of a better short hand) hold the balance of power in the House so they have to be dealt with and kept relatively sweet.

However Alf will get a fairly free hand in Foreign Policy, though what he'll do with it is a different question. He's no FDR chomping at the bit but equally no pig headed isolationist. 'Moral Neutrality' will be his watchwords, but what he means by them is anybody's guess, till Amsterdam anyway

Finally look at the length, a mere 1400 ish words, half the size of the last one. I may yet crack this short update malarkey (assuming no-one felt short-changed by the lack of words). In any event now onto Spain and the war!