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(Out of character) With a 40% combat efficiency penalty, I don't see how you can win.
(In character) As commander of the 8a Armata, I would propose a shift from your planned focus in the north. The forests of Northeastern Europe are too thick for our greatest asset, the Panzerarmee to be of much effect - the plains of the Ukraine are where a decisive schwerpunkt would fall.
 
Krieg (cont.)
July 8th, the war in the East has been raging for just over two weeks. It has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands from both sides. The situation of the German Army is grave, they have been pushed to the very gates of Konigsberg, the historical capital of Prussia. However, like our glorious Hindenburg in the Great War, we shall push them back. Already the 9th Armee and 4th Panzerarmee are pushing the Soviets back, 7th Armee is pushing from the city itself. A 2nd Battle of Tannenberg is soon approaching, and like the first war, the Russian armee will be destroyed in Ost Preussen.
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In the center the stalemate continues. This is what we want however, if we make the Russian think we have been defeated they will not expect the storm that is coming. They already believe we have lost the battle, already think they've won the war. We and our Italian allies want to tie down as many Soviet troops as possible.
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In the South, Manstein has planned what he terms a "backhand blow." The Red Army has advanced deep into Hungary, and in the process have overextended their lines and exposed themselves. In this plan the 1st Panzerarmee will drive to meet up with the Romanians, in the process cutting off significant Russian strength on the wrong side of the Carpathians.
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If the coming Case Black succeeds in it's objectives, the war could have a very different outlook. We may be able to win the war in the East despite the resistance.
 
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I see that things are heating up and my concerns were unwarranted - however, by virtue of geography, I hold the greatest faith in Von Manstein's backhand blow for any breaking of the stalemate.
 
(OK, now that you've made it obvious I get it, you were referencing the Sichelschnitt.)
 
Buildup to Fall Schwarz
July 15th, the tide appears to finally be changing, the initial shock of the Soviet resolve has begun to wear off. Already we have won great victories around Konigsberg and Lemberg, and von Weichs' 4. Panzerarmee has managed to encircle nearly all 300k men of the Soviet 3rd and 6th Armees. This "backhand blow" will leave a gap in the Soviet lines ripe for the taking, a gap that will allow our next plan to unfold beautifully.
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In one of Feldmarchall von Manstein's last actions as commander of Heeres Gruppe Sud, a backhand blow is to be executed against the 9th, 11th, and 23rd Armees. This will be the first in a series of engagements meant to bleed the Red Army in the South. While offensive actions will be avoided in the center and South, pressure will be kept up as to keep the Russians guessing.
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The decision to strike North was made after considerable thought and serious debate with our Italian allies. Our senior Italian military attache, as well as many members of the General Staff, has argued that Ukraine should be the main focus of our efforts. Indeed the Ukrainian steppe is the best tank country around, flat, scarce trees, and bountiful natural resources. Northern Russia on the other hand is wet, marshy, forested terrain. The terrain is not the key in this operation however, it is the forces arrayed against us. South of the Pripyet Marshes we are outnumbered nearly 4-1, while in the North we have twice our number. With the newly formed pocket, the odds are almost even along the Baltic. In East Prussia our forces are concentrated in greater number than anywhere else, while our opponents are stretched out more than anywhere else.

The primary reason for the decision to strike North is the desperate situation developing in Finland. Mannerheim has less than 70k men remaining, the Soviets will very soon be at Helsinki and Oulu, and high command fears the 11th Armee will be insufficient to stem the red tide. If 11. Armee and Heeres Gruppe Nord can link up around Leningrad we will have a single unified front.
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Case Black
After a week of various proposals and amendments, the final plan for Fall Schwarz has been accepted by the Fuhrer. The operation will be split into two phases, Operation Hammer and Operation Sickle. Hammer is the destruction of the 3rd and 6th Armees within the Tilsit pocket, followed by the smashing of the Soviet frontline in Lithuania and Belorussia. The final objective of Hammer is to reach the Daugava River in Latvia, in the process causing as many enemy casualties as possible. The 2nd Phase, Operation Sickle, is the exploitation by mobile forces of the openings caused by Hammer. These forces, the 3rd and 4th Panzeramees, will drive to the Lovat River before turning South past the Pripyet marshes and to the river Desna. Primary objectives are the cities of Leningrad, Smolensk, and Bryansk.
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As with France, we will have to break through forest to reach tank country, but as with France, we shall advance into the terrain with haste. Once we have broken through the forests of Lithuania and Belarus we will be able to completely circumvent our opponents positions, as in France.
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Now all of this planning is out of the way, let us go to the sunny Mediterranean to see our Italian friends. The Siege of Tobruk has lasted for months now, neither side can break the stalemate, and it seems this will last for some time.
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A shame that I never could convince Mussolini to pursue aircraft carriers or to use my operational plan for Italy's entry into the war, to maximize the strategic surprise Italy enjoyed. No, the war would be over in months and he only needed enough dead to stand at the negotiations table... The fool. At least my compatriots in the Regio Esercito stabilized the front in North Africa, but if only Il Duce had ever read a book of military theory one wonders what we may have accomplished. I take solace in being stationed on a front where hope of victory exists, however. With the new information regarding Soviet force deployment, I see your plan is sound, as sound as any can be - and with another significant encirclement in the north of the country, numerical superiority may even be achieved.

Do I have clearance on the reports of how our allies in Asia are performing?
 
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The "Indomitable Axis"
The Japanese have 5.5 million men in their army, but they don't seem to understand force deployment. Our Asian allies are very proud of their small islands, and instead of sending doomstacks to Siberia, they are sending 10s of thousands of static troops to places like Iwo Jima. The British and their Nepalese allies can barely muster 100k men to defend India and Burma, yet the Japanese don't want to send troops there. They are sending 1 transport at a time rather than the considerable transport fleet collecting Rust in the East Indies. Speaking of their fleet, it is pitiful. While they may have 7 battleships, 6 heavy cruisers, and 30+ destroyers and light cruisers; they have 1 carrier. 1 carrier! How does the mighty Japanese Navy even fight? When the Fuhrer received these reports from Tokyo he flew into a fit of rage. Hitler declared that (please take no offense) even Mussolini's blockheads could do better.
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And speaking of Mussolini's blockheads, it appears your comrades in East Africa are faring much better than their Libyan counterparts. Oh, the Belgians are pretty cool too.
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I don't like the idea of attacking through the Pripyet Marshes at all, nor do I find it particularly necessary to defend them with more than a corps or two. I would advise allowing the Soviets to deal with the problem of moving in the marsh, lightly screen it, preferably with Hungarian troops, and allow the bulk of the 8a to participate in an operation where there's more potential for success. Our mountain troops would perform excellently in the harsh conditions of the Finnish front, or they could stand as a strategic reserve. Should the Russians attempt an offensive from the Marsh, they'd merely be sticking their head in the noose for us. The Luftwaffe could easily destroy the supply infrastructure, could it not? I believe the Pripyet Marshes should be bypassed, starved, and eliminated out our leisure.
 
Backhand Blow
July 22nd, 1941

One month after the invasion, the battle is finally turning in our favor. Through Manstein's backhand method we have now successfully encircled 20 divisions in the North and twice that in the South. 60 entire Soviet divisions are earmarked for complete destruction. Not only has this provided breathing space, but it has also given a much needed morale boost. In the general staff the mixed feelings of just a few weeks ago have been replaced by a general mood of confidence and enthusiasm. Everyone from the bottom to the top is now eager to reach Leningrad, and then onto Moscow.
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In the center there is... less success. General Baistrocchi's Italian Armata has been fighting in a bloody siege for weeks. The antiquated fortress has proven to be a pain, and every available resource has been committed to it's capture. Stukas and He-111s of the Luftwaffe have been raining bombs on the fortress day and night, setting everything ablaze. Every heavy artillery piece from the 8a Armata has been committed to the siege lines, but there has been extra firepower sent straight from the top. The 6 Karl-Gerat heavy siege morters have been brought into battle for the first time since the breaching of the Maginot Line, and most spectacularly, the Krupp-built Schwerer Gustav and Dora railway guns. 60cm HE morser shells and 80cm railway shells will hopefully force the Reds into submission, and allow the Italian Armata to be redeployed to the Baltic and Finnish fronts.
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An assault over the river into the fortress, Herr General? Deploying the 8a Armata to support a German overland assault on the provinces northwest and southeast, and then taking the fortress in a pincer movement would certainly be more effective.

Although, you did catch the fortress quite lightly staffed, cracking it now before reinforcements arrive and turn it into a strongpoint could be a worthwhile move.
(Hey, any other readers; join in the RP fun)
 
Mixed Tidings
July 26th-29th
At last the Tilsit pocket has been crushed, and more than 200,000 Soviet troops have been killed or captured. The forces remaining in the North are being shattered and pushed back without relent. 7. Armee and 9. Armee are pushing forward on a wide front and will soon liberate the Latvian capital Riga. 2. Armee and 6. Armee have now been brought back up to the front with fresh troops and are supporting 3rd and 4th Panzerarmees in encirclement operations. So far Case Black is going excellently, and great progress is now being made.
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In the South the noose has been completed and will now pull tighter and tighter on the 40 divisions trapped inside. 1. Panzerarmee has thus far shrugged off any and all relief efforts, and the Hungarians are launching their counteroffensive to the west. Meanwhile 2. Panzerarmee under Guderian have encircled a further 10 divisions, opening up the steppe South of the Pripyet wasteland.
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Unfortunate news for our Italian friends however, the attack on Brest has been called off due to Soviet reinforcements and rising casualties. Brest has become a haven for retreating Soviet troops, and their numbers are steadily increasing. Italian casualties for the 1st Battle of Brest total near twenty five thousand. On the other hand, breakthroughs by the 1. Armee just to the North may allow the nigh impenetrable fort to be bypassed and starved out.
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Also, on a non RP note. Since my advances have been meager so far, the Soviets haven't been able to fire their big MP events, so they have 600-700 IC that can't really be utilized, It will be some time before the great Soviet conscript spams come about
 
I forgot you made the move to a AAR! Oh well, here now.

It will be some time before the great Soviet conscript spams come about

At that time, I could do some strategic RP then...something like...I'm a guy running helter-skelter back to Berlin screaming; "It's very hard...He's a madman...it's very hard...it's all kaput! <sly-grin>

Seriously, playing at this level? Once I saw the stats for this setting; my first thought was "this is Kamikazee."
However you're doing well. Keep it up. Great job whatever happens Herr Rommel. <S>
 
made alot of good progress looks good Rommel, i like the crushing of the Russians in the north, lets see how the war progresses
whats that mod your using? ive not played Germany yet only Italy allied to the germans trying to help them in the war with Russia and allies
but when i feel ready to play Germany i will look at that mod
 
Red Army in Retreat
As July turns to August, the slowly changing tide has given way to a rout. With spearheads all across the front the Soviets can only hope to stall us. In the past 2 weeks alone we have encircled 30 more divisions, bringing the total up to 90 divisions. Not only has Case Black proven to be an outstanding success but the previously defensive operations in the South have turned into offensives. The might of our Panzerarmees is undeniable, as they smash through all Soviet defenses then glance off every counterattack that is thrown at them.
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All along the Baltic sea the German flag now flies high. Soviet Political Commisars received a hail of stones and curses from Latvian citizens as they cleared out of Riga, meanwhile German troops were given a warm welcome. Latvian and German banners were hung from every window, flowers and gifts were showered upon the victorious Landsers
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On the naval side of things, the Kriegsmarine was finally able to get a piece of the Glory, engaging the Soviet Baltic Fleet as they tried to escape the Gulf of Riga. Not a single ship was spared, and the Gulf was set alight with leaking oil. Even the mighty October Revolution, pride of the Red Navy, was felled by a 38 cm shell from the Bismarck's No. 2 turret.
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While we may have success along the length of our front, the Romanians and Bulgarians are having more than a tad bit of trouble. The Romanian 2nd and 3rd Armees are on the verge of being encircled and destroyed, and only the brave efforts of the 1st, 2nd and 4th Garda Divisions saved them from their fate. Further to the South, the Bulgarien 1st and 2nd Armees are desperately trying to hold their line in front of the Romanian capital of Bucharest. They will have to hold, as there wont be reinforcement till the end of the year, possibly not even till next spring. The Italians meanwhile are proving themselves in both the east and the south. The 8a Armata is significantly contributing to the Case Black offensive and finally the North African command has broken through the British siege lines around Tobruk.
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Excellent on all fronts, barring Romania of course. Should my comrades in Egypt succeed there, on their own or with the aid of some German action, an Italian army could stand in the Middle East, on the borders of Iran and Turkey. Of course, all available resources should be put towards ending the war with the Soviet Union before the winter.

But, should that fail, I would recommend our course of action over the winter to be to spare Alpini, Gebirsjager, and perhaps a few light panzer divisions to force Turkey into the Axis, hold the Soviet Union in the mountains, and bring about an Axis victory in the Mediterranean Theater. A relatively small effort there, during a time when major success on the main front is impossible, could bring the vast majority of the Italian Army into Ansatz Barbarossa. While Germany and the 8a Armata could continue our battles on the primary front at full strength come spring, we would have created a new, self sustaining front threatening the vital Caucasus oilfields.
 
I hope they can succeed, however, the British have transferred most of the Indian Army to North Africa, meaning that there is the equivalent of a small army group facing the Italians there. If only the Japanese could pull their collective heads out of their asses and take over the 3 million sq. km being handed to them on a silver platter.