Buildup to Fall Schwarz
July 15th, the tide appears to finally be changing, the initial shock of the Soviet resolve has begun to wear off. Already we have won great victories around Konigsberg and Lemberg, and von Weichs' 4. Panzerarmee has managed to encircle nearly all 300k men of the Soviet 3rd and 6th Armees. This "backhand blow" will leave a gap in the Soviet lines ripe for the taking, a gap that will allow our next plan to unfold beautifully.
In one of Feldmarchall von Manstein's last actions as commander of Heeres Gruppe Sud, a backhand blow is to be executed against the 9th, 11th, and 23rd Armees. This will be the first in a series of engagements meant to bleed the Red Army in the South. While offensive actions will be avoided in the center and South, pressure will be kept up as to keep the Russians guessing.
The decision to strike North was made after considerable thought and serious debate with our Italian allies. Our senior Italian military attache, as well as many members of the General Staff, has argued that Ukraine should be the main focus of our efforts. Indeed the Ukrainian steppe is the best tank country around, flat, scarce trees, and bountiful natural resources. Northern Russia on the other hand is wet, marshy, forested terrain. The terrain is not the key in this operation however, it is the forces arrayed against us. South of the Pripyet Marshes we are outnumbered nearly 4-1, while in the North we have twice our number. With the newly formed pocket, the odds are almost even along the Baltic. In East Prussia our forces are concentrated in greater number than anywhere else, while our opponents are stretched out more than anywhere else.
The primary reason for the decision to strike North is the desperate situation developing in Finland. Mannerheim has less than 70k men remaining, the Soviets will very soon be at Helsinki and Oulu, and high command fears the 11th Armee will be insufficient to stem the red tide. If 11. Armee and Heeres Gruppe Nord can link up around Leningrad we will have a single unified front.
Case Black
After a week of various proposals and amendments, the final plan for Fall Schwarz has been accepted by the Fuhrer. The operation will be split into two phases, Operation Hammer and Operation Sickle. Hammer is the destruction of the 3rd and 6th Armees within the Tilsit pocket, followed by the smashing of the Soviet frontline in Lithuania and Belorussia. The final objective of Hammer is to reach the Daugava River in Latvia, in the process causing as many enemy casualties as possible. The 2nd Phase, Operation Sickle, is the exploitation by mobile forces of the openings caused by Hammer. These forces, the 3rd and 4th Panzeramees, will drive to the Lovat River before turning South past the Pripyet marshes and to the river Desna. Primary objectives are the cities of Leningrad, Smolensk, and Bryansk.
As with France, we will have to break through forest to reach tank country, but as with France, we shall advance into the terrain with haste. Once we have broken through the forests of Lithuania and Belarus we will be able to completely circumvent our opponents positions, as in France.
Now all of this planning is out of the way, let us go to the sunny Mediterranean to see our Italian friends. The Siege of Tobruk has lasted for months now, neither side can break the stalemate, and it seems this will last for some time.