Very interesting indeed. We are nearing show-time! I think the A.I. will make it a challenge for you to...hmm? "hold your end of the bargain"?
Hastening new AT certainly helps.- 1
-
We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
Hastening new AT certainly helps.
Always good to see a K-class cruiser get sunk, if only on aesthetic grounds as they are ridiculous looking things.
Norway is always a funny one, it's a battle of the confused AIs. The Allied naval AI can't defend or patrol properly, but the German one can't do a competent invasion. Realistically a longer campaign should be the Allies favour, more times to mobilise and so on, but I think Paradox over-crippled France so that may not apply.
Either way it's not of much interest to Turkey, if things reach the point of amphibious invasions then the Glorious Union will be looking at the 'Glory' of fighting to the last man and being defeated.
Norway is always a funny one, it's a battle of the confused AIs. The Allied naval AI can't defend or patrol properly, but the German one can't do a competent invasion. Realistically a longer campaign should be the Allies favour, more times to mobilise and so on, but I think Paradox over-crippled France so that may not apply.
Either way it's not of much interest to Turkey, if things reach the point of amphibious invasions then the Glorious Union will be looking at the 'Glory' of fighting to the last man and being defeated.
- 1
Indeed: feet firmly planted on dry land. What we don't want is for the UK to get taken down in an amphibious invasion (which does seem to happen sometimes). Need them to keep the handbreak on the Axis at sea and in North Africa while the Union of Unions does the business in the east. One of the reasons I picked Turkey and kept the difficulty at Normal was to let all the AIs of the major powers balance each other out to see how that goes, with me chipping away and trying to get the faction with the furthest to go over the line for a victory. Not sure whether the search for a twelfth victory objective will require any hostilities with the Allies at the end ... need to get the bad guys beaten first!
- 1
Chapter 73: Down and Dirty in the Dutch Dykes (1 to 30 April 1940)
Chapter 73: Down and Dirty in the Dutch Dykes (1 to 30 April 1940)
[Ed: OK, back from sunny Victoria in British Columbia, Canada – time for another update. Sorry El Pip, but a man’s gotta do … this one isn’t too long though, by TT standards.]
1 Apr 40
In desperation, Finland launches its secret weapon: alas, it is not enough to keep the Soviets from continuing the advance.
Yes, an actual picture of a Finnish war-dog from the Winter War.
By 1300, the Soviets occupy Turku. This brings Finnish surrender progress to 100%, with negotiations for an immediate armistice commenced.
Cennet “Connie” Kavgaci, agent-under-training, has been doing “wet ops” instruction with the NKVD (the People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs - Narodnyi Komissariat Vnutrennikh Del). Her time on detachment to the NKVD has been ‘interesting’: its former chief Nikolai Ivanovich Yezhov (who headed the organisation during the Great Purge of 1936-38) was (rather appropriately) tried on 2 Feb and executed on 4 Feb this year as one of its final victims, ‘confessing’ under torture to a range of anti-Soviet activities. Ironically, his role was grand inquisitor and extractor of confessions up until his fall from power in November 1938.
The current NKVD boss is Lavrenty Beria. Yezhov had previously tried to purge Beria when he was the NKVD leader in Georgia, but Beria was able to plead his case to fellow-Georgian Stalin. Instead, Stalin assigned him as Yezhov’s deputy in August 1938. By April 1939 Yezhov [Ed. corrected] was under arrest – from Stalin’s perspective he had served his purpose, but had seen too much and wielded too much power to be allowed to live.
Left: Nikolai Yezhov, NKVD Head from 1936 to November 1938.
Centre: the NKVD badge.
Right: Yezhov’s successor Lavrenty Beria, current head of the NKVD.
A classified report to President Inönü (her former guardian), indicates Connie has been studying at the NKVD’s ‘Laboratory 1’, headed by Grigor Maironovsky. Maironovsky is apparently working this year on his classified PhD thesis entitled "Biological activity of the products of interaction of mustard gas with [human] skin tissues". Charming. But the skills being learned may well come in handy later: during the recent Mafia-Axis 'Great Conspiracy' against Turkey, the Mafia were happy to try to kill both Atatürk and Pope Pius XII in this way (and were almost successful in both cases). Of course, Connie has some cred in this line of work herself, having seen off the notoriously durable Don Osvaldo Altobello (Premier of Montenegro GNR and Mafia kingpin) with a poisoned baklava last year.
A picture is provided with the report of Connie enjoying her ‘Poison Gnocchi 101’ class at the NKVD's 'Laboratory 1', at a classified location somewhere in the Soviet Union.
2 Apr 40
Despite overrunning most of Finland and having the country at its mercy, the Soviets only demand land claims, the largest of which encompasses the remainder of the Karelian Isthmus, including Viipuri (Vyborg) and the Finn's best defensive lines, meaning Leningrad now has a far wider buffer than previously. Comrade Stalin, after a shaky start, has secured a sweeping victory, then showed far more restraint than Hitler has in his rampage across Europe. Soviet forces begin pulling back to the new border. A model of restraint and international probity. [Ed: Ahem!]
At 1600 that afternoon, Germany declares war on its next small European victim: Luxemburg. Other than the very small Luxembourg Volunteer Corps (one of its 'armoured' cars is depicted below), the little Duchy is essentially defenceless.
4 Apr 40
News Report: London, UK. Neville Chamberlain gives a speech to the Conservative Party in London stating he is confident of victory and that Hitler has "missed the bus" by not taking advantage of Germany's military superiority over Britain at the beginning of the war.
Aras reports Norway has accepted an offer of military access by Finland. This won’t achieve much, but shows the Scandinavian countries are starting to work together. Only Sweden hasn't been attacked by a massive neighbour yet: it's starting to get as dangerous as the Balkans for small countries!
5 Apr 40
The German conquest of Luxemburg is completed in less than three days. But as yet, there are no reports of any attacks by either Germany or France on each other across their mutual border.
8 Apr 40
Ögel produces another very useful set of French plans. Not only will this be of benefit to Turkey’s substantial cavalry force, but it brings the country closer to being able to create motorised infantry units. After this second useful find, Kaya is forced to shut up about the foreign security service's abilities to find useful material.
9 Apr 40
Another Iraqi spy is apprehended: they never learn. Kelebek is getting bored with them and waves this one away – the agent is shown mercy (by being executed immediately).
12 Apr 40
The Phoney War is getting less phoney by the day: Germany now declares war on the Netherlands, which immediately joins the Allies. The small countries of Europe are getting picked off by Germany one by one (this was once Turkey’s national sport in 1937-38). Belgium remains neutral, even with the evidence of its very likely fate there for all to see. Why would Germany invade the Dutch if not to then be able to outflank the Belgians, on their way to France? They may be mobilised, but they would be better off with some French troops to bolster their defences.
The Fokker G-1 “Reaper” is a Dutch heavy twin-engine fighter aircraft comparable in size and role to the German Messerschmitt Bf 110. In production prior to the outbreak of the Second Great War, the few G-1s mustered into service have been able to score several victories.
14 Apr 40
The second of the licensed T-28 medium armoured brigades is delivered. It is introduced into 1 Cav Div in Ankara, replacing the light CV-33 brigade, which will be set aside and perhaps used in a future light response force.
15 Apr 40
After three days of operations in the Netherlands, the first few Dutch provinces have fallen to the Germans.
17 Apr 40
Back in the UGNR [Ed: A good name for a song? May have to get Braanszon and Persephonee onto that one later], a new infantry brigade is delivered to Patra, bringing 10 Inf Div (Light) up to establishment strength. The last of the 1940 class of generals is assigned to command it.
And in the former Iran, near the Afghan border, another minor revolt has broken out. The militia garrison in Tehran is sent to deal with it.
Norway has now also accepted an offer of military access from Sweden. But so far, there has been no indication of any German attempt to follow up its declaration of war last month, on land anyway.
18 Apr 40
The next new infantry brigade is allocated to the new ‘Support Division’ (so designated as it has both an AA and AT brigade) being raised in Ankara, which is now also up to strength. It is designated as 12 Inf Div (Spt) and is sent to join 17 Inf Div in the Calistar Line reserve being marshalled at Karacabey, co-located with 1st Army Group HQ.
21 Apr 40
The bitter espionage war in France continues, with another Turkish casualty at the hands of the South Africans. Turkish spy strength is at 7 against 4 French agents.
In the Netherlands, the Germans have broken through in both the north and south over the last week, capturing the key city of Eindhoven (1 VP). Provinces occupied since 15 Apr are marked with a red arrow.
23 Apr 40
With more IC becoming available as upgrade programs are completed, another new IC complex is queued, as a hedge against likely later losses in the Balkans. The cost (5.05 IC) is considerably less than it used to be.
25 Apr 40
The Germans have pushed on in the north over the last four days, though the pace in the south has lessened a little, perhaps because of the more difficult terrain.
Here, Dutch troops can be seen manning the fortifications along the narrow approach through Afsluitdijk. If this strongpoint falls, the northern approach to Amsterdam will be open.
26-29 Apr 40: Spy Games
Iraq and Afghanistan must be spending almost all their leadership on spies: another Iraqi is apprehended on 26 Apr, while another Afghan agent is taken the next day. On 29 Apr, one more French agent in Paris disappears, but reinforcements ensure strength there is maintained at 7.
30 Apr 40
The period 25-30 Apr has seen a breakthrough and rapid advance by the Germans to the north of Amsterdam: the fortifications at Afsluitdijk proved insufficient. The Germans have also made steady progress in the south, pushing in on Amsterdam from the east and towards the other VP cities of Rotterdam and Den Haag.
Despite Dutch efforts to use dykes to flood the approach of the Germans, their Panzers push on remorselessly.
Naval Report. Two more German major warships have been sunk during March: a CA and a CL. No Allied warships were reported sunk. There are no details of the actions or other damage, just the sinking reports.
KMS Admiral Scheer was a 13,660 t Deutschland-class heavy cruiser (often termed a pocket battleship), launched in 1933. Main armament of 6 × 28 cm (11 in) guns in two triple turrets, plus secondary armament of 8 × 15 cm (5.9 in) guns in single turrets. The British 50th Destroyer Flotilla had apparently finished it off.
KMS Emden, a 5,400 t light cruiser launched in 1925, main armament of 8 × 15 cm (5.9 in) SK L/45 guns. It was sunk by the British battle-cruiser HMS Repulse.
On the French-German border, all remains quiet, although the French troop concentrations along the Maginot Line look considerably stronger than they did last month. There is no news on the strength of German forces along the Belgian border with German border north of Luxemburg, nor in Holland.
While along the French-Belgian border, only a light screen of French infantry units is visible. No BEF can be seen.
Coming Up: The Dutch fight on – but for how much longer? It looks highly likely that Belgium will be next, then presumably France after that. The Soviets continue to realign their deployments, having defeated Finland and enforced their claims on Karelia and elsewhere. There is a rumour that the Baltic States may be next, but no-one is sure. It also remains to be seen whether the Soviets will press their claims on Romania for Bessarabia, now that Romania is not only a puppet of Turkey but a member of the Comintern. Either way, the territory will remain under Comintern control. The Turkish defensive build-up continues, as the day of the great test against the Hun draws closer.
[Ed: OK, back from sunny Victoria in British Columbia, Canada
– time for another update. Sorry El Pip, but a man’s gotta do … this one isn’t too long though, by TT standards.]1 Apr 40
In desperation, Finland launches its secret weapon: alas, it is not enough to keep the Soviets from continuing the advance.
Yes, an actual picture of a Finnish war-dog from the Winter War.
By 1300, the Soviets occupy Turku. This brings Finnish surrender progress to 100%, with negotiations for an immediate armistice commenced.
Cennet “Connie” Kavgaci, agent-under-training, has been doing “wet ops” instruction with the NKVD (the People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs - Narodnyi Komissariat Vnutrennikh Del). Her time on detachment to the NKVD has been ‘interesting’: its former chief Nikolai Ivanovich Yezhov (who headed the organisation during the Great Purge of 1936-38) was (rather appropriately) tried on 2 Feb and executed on 4 Feb this year as one of its final victims, ‘confessing’ under torture to a range of anti-Soviet activities. Ironically, his role was grand inquisitor and extractor of confessions up until his fall from power in November 1938.
The current NKVD boss is Lavrenty Beria. Yezhov had previously tried to purge Beria when he was the NKVD leader in Georgia, but Beria was able to plead his case to fellow-Georgian Stalin. Instead, Stalin assigned him as Yezhov’s deputy in August 1938. By April 1939 Yezhov [Ed. corrected] was under arrest – from Stalin’s perspective he had served his purpose, but had seen too much and wielded too much power to be allowed to live.
Left: Nikolai Yezhov, NKVD Head from 1936 to November 1938.
Centre: the NKVD badge.
Right: Yezhov’s successor Lavrenty Beria, current head of the NKVD.
A classified report to President Inönü (her former guardian), indicates Connie has been studying at the NKVD’s ‘Laboratory 1’, headed by Grigor Maironovsky. Maironovsky is apparently working this year on his classified PhD thesis entitled "Biological activity of the products of interaction of mustard gas with [human] skin tissues". Charming. But the skills being learned may well come in handy later: during the recent Mafia-Axis 'Great Conspiracy' against Turkey, the Mafia were happy to try to kill both Atatürk and Pope Pius XII in this way (and were almost successful in both cases). Of course, Connie has some cred in this line of work herself, having seen off the notoriously durable Don Osvaldo Altobello (Premier of Montenegro GNR and Mafia kingpin) with a poisoned baklava last year.
A picture is provided with the report of Connie enjoying her ‘Poison Gnocchi 101’ class at the NKVD's 'Laboratory 1', at a classified location somewhere in the Soviet Union.
2 Apr 40
Despite overrunning most of Finland and having the country at its mercy, the Soviets only demand land claims, the largest of which encompasses the remainder of the Karelian Isthmus, including Viipuri (Vyborg) and the Finn's best defensive lines, meaning Leningrad now has a far wider buffer than previously. Comrade Stalin, after a shaky start, has secured a sweeping victory, then showed far more restraint than Hitler has in his rampage across Europe. Soviet forces begin pulling back to the new border. A model of restraint and international probity. [Ed: Ahem!]
At 1600 that afternoon, Germany declares war on its next small European victim: Luxemburg. Other than the very small Luxembourg Volunteer Corps (one of its 'armoured' cars is depicted below), the little Duchy is essentially defenceless.
4 Apr 40
News Report: London, UK. Neville Chamberlain gives a speech to the Conservative Party in London stating he is confident of victory and that Hitler has "missed the bus" by not taking advantage of Germany's military superiority over Britain at the beginning of the war.
Aras reports Norway has accepted an offer of military access by Finland. This won’t achieve much, but shows the Scandinavian countries are starting to work together. Only Sweden hasn't been attacked by a massive neighbour yet: it's starting to get as dangerous as the Balkans for small countries!
5 Apr 40
The German conquest of Luxemburg is completed in less than three days. But as yet, there are no reports of any attacks by either Germany or France on each other across their mutual border.
8 Apr 40
Ögel produces another very useful set of French plans. Not only will this be of benefit to Turkey’s substantial cavalry force, but it brings the country closer to being able to create motorised infantry units. After this second useful find, Kaya is forced to shut up about the foreign security service's abilities to find useful material.
9 Apr 40
Another Iraqi spy is apprehended: they never learn. Kelebek is getting bored with them and waves this one away – the agent is shown mercy (by being executed immediately).
12 Apr 40
The Phoney War is getting less phoney by the day: Germany now declares war on the Netherlands, which immediately joins the Allies. The small countries of Europe are getting picked off by Germany one by one (this was once Turkey’s national sport in 1937-38). Belgium remains neutral, even with the evidence of its very likely fate there for all to see. Why would Germany invade the Dutch if not to then be able to outflank the Belgians, on their way to France? They may be mobilised, but they would be better off with some French troops to bolster their defences.
The Fokker G-1 “Reaper” is a Dutch heavy twin-engine fighter aircraft comparable in size and role to the German Messerschmitt Bf 110. In production prior to the outbreak of the Second Great War, the few G-1s mustered into service have been able to score several victories.
14 Apr 40
The second of the licensed T-28 medium armoured brigades is delivered. It is introduced into 1 Cav Div in Ankara, replacing the light CV-33 brigade, which will be set aside and perhaps used in a future light response force.
15 Apr 40
After three days of operations in the Netherlands, the first few Dutch provinces have fallen to the Germans.
17 Apr 40
Back in the UGNR [Ed: A good name for a song? May have to get Braanszon and Persephonee onto that one later], a new infantry brigade is delivered to Patra, bringing 10 Inf Div (Light) up to establishment strength. The last of the 1940 class of generals is assigned to command it.
And in the former Iran, near the Afghan border, another minor revolt has broken out. The militia garrison in Tehran is sent to deal with it.
Norway has now also accepted an offer of military access from Sweden. But so far, there has been no indication of any German attempt to follow up its declaration of war last month, on land anyway.
18 Apr 40
The next new infantry brigade is allocated to the new ‘Support Division’ (so designated as it has both an AA and AT brigade) being raised in Ankara, which is now also up to strength. It is designated as 12 Inf Div (Spt) and is sent to join 17 Inf Div in the Calistar Line reserve being marshalled at Karacabey, co-located with 1st Army Group HQ.
21 Apr 40
The bitter espionage war in France continues, with another Turkish casualty at the hands of the South Africans. Turkish spy strength is at 7 against 4 French agents.
In the Netherlands, the Germans have broken through in both the north and south over the last week, capturing the key city of Eindhoven (1 VP). Provinces occupied since 15 Apr are marked with a red arrow.
23 Apr 40
With more IC becoming available as upgrade programs are completed, another new IC complex is queued, as a hedge against likely later losses in the Balkans. The cost (5.05 IC) is considerably less than it used to be.
25 Apr 40
The Germans have pushed on in the north over the last four days, though the pace in the south has lessened a little, perhaps because of the more difficult terrain.
Here, Dutch troops can be seen manning the fortifications along the narrow approach through Afsluitdijk. If this strongpoint falls, the northern approach to Amsterdam will be open.
26-29 Apr 40: Spy Games
Iraq and Afghanistan must be spending almost all their leadership on spies: another Iraqi is apprehended on 26 Apr, while another Afghan agent is taken the next day. On 29 Apr, one more French agent in Paris disappears, but reinforcements ensure strength there is maintained at 7.
30 Apr 40
The period 25-30 Apr has seen a breakthrough and rapid advance by the Germans to the north of Amsterdam: the fortifications at Afsluitdijk proved insufficient. The Germans have also made steady progress in the south, pushing in on Amsterdam from the east and towards the other VP cities of Rotterdam and Den Haag.
Despite Dutch efforts to use dykes to flood the approach of the Germans, their Panzers push on remorselessly.
Naval Report. Two more German major warships have been sunk during March: a CA and a CL. No Allied warships were reported sunk. There are no details of the actions or other damage, just the sinking reports.
KMS Admiral Scheer was a 13,660 t Deutschland-class heavy cruiser (often termed a pocket battleship), launched in 1933. Main armament of 6 × 28 cm (11 in) guns in two triple turrets, plus secondary armament of 8 × 15 cm (5.9 in) guns in single turrets. The British 50th Destroyer Flotilla had apparently finished it off.
KMS Emden, a 5,400 t light cruiser launched in 1925, main armament of 8 × 15 cm (5.9 in) SK L/45 guns. It was sunk by the British battle-cruiser HMS Repulse.
On the French-German border, all remains quiet, although the French troop concentrations along the Maginot Line look considerably stronger than they did last month. There is no news on the strength of German forces along the Belgian border with German border north of Luxemburg, nor in Holland.
While along the French-Belgian border, only a light screen of French infantry units is visible. No BEF can be seen.
Coming Up: The Dutch fight on – but for how much longer? It looks highly likely that Belgium will be next, then presumably France after that. The Soviets continue to realign their deployments, having defeated Finland and enforced their claims on Karelia and elsewhere. There is a rumour that the Baltic States may be next, but no-one is sure. It also remains to be seen whether the Soviets will press their claims on Romania for Bessarabia, now that Romania is not only a puppet of Turkey but a member of the Comintern. Either way, the territory will remain under Comintern control. The Turkish defensive build-up continues, as the day of the great test against the Hun draws closer.
Last edited:
- 1
I think it is time the Soviet Union starts thinking about a top secret War-dog program, as that bad boy actually tore off three arms and five legs before he was shot. This information was of course top secret, as to not rile our human soldiers... but had they had thousands of those dogs, we could have been in trouble...
I think that's showing too much restraint, and actually fear the Finns might bite us in the back over the Winter War. Revenge is a powerful motivator...
Yes, the worst thing you can do as a spy in the Soviet Union is gain a visible position of power, because then you matter politically, and that's clearly a recipe for eventual death or gulag. Much better to remain in the shadows...
Yes my esteemed colleague Maironovsky is a true genius, I'm glad the NKVD found a spot for Cennet in his class
That's part of a series called 'how to poison Italians', I loved that one...
I've now managed to find the time to go down to the GRU survival training base in Siberia, where Cennet did the first part of her training:
In the classes of the first week, she did only slightly above average:
Building a shelter against a snowstorm was not her strong suit, but skinning small rodents seemed right in her wheelhouse.
She was also a quick study of the different ways to orientate oneself in unknown territory.
In the second week, she proved a natural parachute jumper, and a great shot.
After only two weeks, instead of the usual three, she was put on a plane blindfolded and told to jump 100 km away from the base (the blindfold was removed right before the Jump). Her task was to return to the base within a week, and this was really an examination of sorts.
It seems that, in this wilderness, she managed to survive and make her way back in three days, which has to be a record. How she pulled this off is of no real importance.
(there are some rumours that she managed to find a hunter's cabin which we didn't even know about 20 km from where she was dropped and then used skis she found there to make her way back more quickly)
Fact is, she found her way back quickly and efficiently, the commando instructor was very pleased, and she was sent along to the NKVD to learn subtler skills of espionage. (you already have the report on that)
Depending on how much of a hurry Turkey is in to put her to use, the GRU could also provide an intensive explosives training class called 'how to blow someone/something up and make it look like the British did it', which could be useful to covert operations as long as we aren't at war with the Axis, but the Allies are.
Glad to see things are moving along nicely for our young operative in training, glad that business in Finland is over and glad to see the Turkey's military grow stronger by the day.
Greetings,
SkitalecS3
- 1
Yes, you have the right of it there. Beria lasted a very long time - but was too dangerous to have around once Stalin was gone. But he will outlast this AAR, which will be well and truly done by 1953,one way or the other.
Oh, all her skills are going to be employed, with some cold-savoured revenge on the Italians in particular, so some explosives plus false flag skills will be very useful. I'm sure there will be a few "Ismet Inonu sends his regards" moments when the gloves come off. Cennet's Italian is even better than her Russian - Uncle Luca (Brasi) has helped her with spoken and unspoken language skills. Woe betide the enemy when she joins Brasi and Kelebek in the 'Secret War'. For now, they keep their powder dry. Plenty of war to be had yet.
Many thanks for the detailed report, my dear SkitalecS3. Fraternal good wishes to you and our esteemed colleague 'Odin', whose secret reports make for interesting and relevant reading. If only we had him rather than the AI guiding our Russian ally!
- 1
Salami tactics remember. Slice by slice.
Get Bud Flanagan on the blower. I feel a song coming on!
Curiously enough the British seem to place the Iraqi intelligence agencies at least a little bit higher in their meat grinder list than some. They are trying to break into a suspicious 'neutral' and communist nation that the Allies need to know about.
The South Africans are serving as the French police force.
This is where the nightmare traditionally begins, though of course Poland had already been suffering for months before now. Really wish the French and Belgians made a push to help out here because that could have greatly slowed the Axis attack. Wouldn't have stopped it but made it very costly. And then a running campaign through Belgium as well...the axis would have been exhausted by the time they reached the French border. If I was actually in Allied command at this time, I'd convince the Belgians to go along with this and plan a join Norwegian British attack on Denmark at the same time. Because we need to buy time to finish and secure the colonies to bring in more troops, at which point we pour them into Europe.
But we're turkey and must therefore watch.
Weird Al would probably give it a go.
Good news. If the German fleet sinks, it stays sunk for the most part. By the time the Nazis do get the coastline of Western Europe, they might not have any ships left.
- 1
Beira arrested now, brave choice from Stalin. The Soviet system has 3 pillars; Army, Secret Police and the Party, if all three are against a man then any General Secretary will fall, even Stalin. The Army is going to be a bit resentful of being gutted, the Party the same after the purges, going after the NKVD as well so soon is a brave call.
Then again it is a mark of the abilities of Stalin, or perhaps his utter success at purging every competent person and possible rival from the Party, that his successors felt they could risk reforming/changing one pillar at a time.
Theoretically Belgium can still be defended, some good rivers to anchor the line on and no distraction of trying to rush to save the Netherlands, the Allies can get in position and dig in. Of course the AI won't manage that, Belgian hopes rest on the German AI getting confused and failing to declare war as it flails around Norway. Which could still happen.
Then again it is a mark of the abilities of Stalin, or perhaps his utter success at purging every competent person and possible rival from the Party, that his successors felt they could risk reforming/changing one pillar at a time.
Theoretically Belgium can still be defended, some good rivers to anchor the line on and no distraction of trying to rush to save the Netherlands, the Allies can get in position and dig in. Of course the AI won't manage that, Belgian hopes rest on the German AI getting confused and failing to declare war as it flails around Norway. Which could still happen.
- 1
It also scares the crap out of me. If Stalin survives this then he's basically in the position he was in 1948 ten years early. As even Fleming and Orwell recognised, he had absolute and final control over everything in soviet Russia to almost godlike levels of devotion and dominion over the people within. If he achieves that so many years before his health fails and at a time of peace and when Finland has caved under pressure...well.
It's going to be a red century.
- 1
Oops, my bad, that was a misprint on my behalf
- should have read Yezhov was arrested! Your amazement is well founded - not even my alt-Stalin has balls that steely (pun intended)! I've now corrected it.This and some pre-existing thoughts from the 'forward defence/imperialist' faction in Cabinet (the new PM Celal Bayar is now the leader of that faction) has them thinking about the possibility of dragging the Soviets into an early two-front war while France is still well in the game. More on that in the next update.
As per above re the misreported death of Beria. But the rest remains true re Stalin. If the war goes to general plan, it will indeed be a Red century!
- 1
Chapter 74: The Western War – The Low Countries (1 to 15 May 1940)
Chapter 74: The Western War – The Low Countries (1 to 15 May 1940)
1 May 40
Given events in Western Europe, where the Belgians and French (with some small British support on land) are up against the Germans, the Cabinet believes it is timely to review and compare some key unit types to those of the combatants – in this case the basic building block of any army, the standard infantry division. Our intelligence sources in France are used to get information on equivalent French, Belgian and German formations.
First, the standard Turkish division now consists of three infantry and one artillery brigade, giving at a ‘counter face value’ of 4-4 (attack-defence). Infantry brigades are now ‘level IV+’, with organisation of 45, morale of 35 and other statistics as illustrated below.
A check of Belgian, French and German units (the latter from notional battlefield reporting from the conflict so far) show each of them to be virtually identical in terms of standard infantry brigade stats. Below is an example of a standard French infantry division and brigade. Virtually all their infantry divisions are triangular 3 x INF, giving them a ‘counter strength’ of 3-4.
The secondary Turkish division pattern (light divisions) is 2 x INF and 1 x AT, giving a 3-3 strength.
At least Turkey’s infantry force is up to equivalent modern standards to those now fighting in the West, including the Germans. Of course, the same is unlikely to be true of doctrine research, while the strength or armoured and mechanised units is that of the licensed units bought from the Soviets. And the Air Force Chief simply wants some half-modern planes to play with – perhaps something can be arranged in the near future.
At 7pm, Amsterdam falls to the German - the Dutch capital is relocated to Rotterdam. That brings surrender progress for the Netherlands to 29.3%, with 21.8% of VPs lost against NU of 74.4%.
3 May 40
As the few remaining Netherlands ‘homeland’ provinces begin to fall to the Germans, a major advance is made for the Turkish army, bringing it further into the mid-20th century. With radios now being issued throughout the army, research focus turns to Delay Doctrine, which aims to give an important boost for the morale of our now considerable number of support brigades – an area which, through competing priorities, has been neglected so far.
4 May 40
Rotterdam has now fallen, leaving Den Haag as the only province (and VP city) left in the Netherlands itself. The Dutch make the interesting decision to relocate their capital to Palembang (on the island of Sumatra in the Dutch East Indies), rather than Batavia.
5 May 40
At 0600, Den Haag is occupied by the Germans, signalling the fall of the Netherlands’ last European province. But the country itself fights on, through its overseas colonies.
At 1600, 1 Mil Bde reports it has arrived in Borun and will now prepare to attack the ‘Persian Nationalists’ in Birjand, after they reorganise from their long train trip. At the same time, more momentous news is heard: having now fully occupied the Netherlands, the Germans declare war straight away on Belgium (some of their light armour can be seen below moving into battle). It is at this point that the Turkish Cabinet begins referring to the campaign as the ‘Western War’: GW2 (Great War II) has now embarked on its most dangerous and significant phase so far. The Polish Campaign and all the minor invasions to date have been a prelude to this. Now the world will see how formidable the Wehrmacht is against what many still consider the foremost military power of Europe.
6 May 40
(1:12min)
French in Action – May 1940
The Turkish War Cabinet is now meeting in emergency session. A map is provided showing the key cities in Belgium and northern France and the terrain over which the Battle for Belgium will be fought. There is some useful defensive terrain in the eastern half of the country: rivers, woods and hills, with fortifications in Liége (L3) and Namur (L1) adding to the natural defences. Antwerpen (Antwerp) (L1) and Bruxelles (Brussels) (L1) also have forts to augment their river-line defences. If the reasonably strong (and long mobilised) Belgian Army can be augmented by French and other Allied forces, they may impose some delay on the German advance, though the occupation of the Netherlands has outflanked their eastern defences and will thin their line out. One can hope, but it is hard to see the Germans being held for too long before a breakthrough is achieved – with the expectation they will attempt the same ‘blitzkrieg’ tactics they did in Poland.
Prime Minister Celal Bayar suggests the Cabinet should review progress in the Western War mid-month, with a view to considering Turkish options. He suggests that if it looks like the French and their Allies may be able to hold the Germans (Great War One style), perhaps Turkey could explore whether there was any chance of persuading the Soviets to abrogate their non-aggression pact with the Nazis to give them a war on two fronts, with Turkey at their side. Other Cabinet members are sceptical, but agree it can at least be considered. Cabinet will meet on the evening of 15 May to consider its options. The key questions to be answered:
Entertainment Report: US. John Steinbeck wins a Pulitzer Prize for his novel The Grapes of Wrath. Set during the Great Depression, the novel focuses on the Joads, a poor family of tenant farmers driven from their Oklahoma home by drought, economic hardship, agricultural industry changes and bank foreclosures forcing tenant farmers out of work.
The 'Grapes of Wrath': a very appropriate title for such a troubled time.
Sports News. The International Olympic Committee formally cancels the 1940 Summer Olympics. The 1940 Summer Olympics, officially known as the Games of the XII Olympiad, were originally scheduled to be held from 21 September to 6 October 1940, in Tokyo, Japan. They were rescheduled for Helsinki (the city that had been the runner-up in the original bidding process), to be held from July 20 to August 4, 1940, but were ultimately cancelled due to the outbreak of the Second Great War.
A poster from the now aborted 12th Olympiad. Two 'Axis Games' in a row may have been too much to take.
7 May 40
In what could be a significant sign (and following earlier intelligence reports and speculation about a likely Italian entry into the war), our border posts report significant movement of Italian troops away from the shared border in the west of former Yugoslavia. A threat for France – an opportunity for the Glorious Union?
A new GAR bde is delivered to Antalya to boost the port defence there. Given the proximity of Italian and British naval bases (in Rhodes and Cyprus), this is only prudent.
And a second MIL bde is raised in Antakya, for similar reasons, ready to garrison Iskenderun in the event of war with Italy.
And, following his impassioned presentation to Cabinet, Chief of Staff and Air Force Chief Ali Örlungat is finally given his wish: a license is bought for a wing of Polykarpov I-16s from the Soviets. They will be expensive in IC outlay, but a start needs to be made. With luck, better aircraft will be available in the future and beginning to produce fighters now will lower production costs then.
By 1500 that day, the Germans have made some limited inroads since the start of the attack on Belgium two days ago. The seizure of Brugge is concerning, lest it turn into a grand outflanking move by the Wehrmacht. Detailed reports from the front will only be periodic. We are currently just tracking reports of the fall of provinces to discern German progress.
9 May 40
Another Afghan spy is apprehended. It is becoming routine. You would think by now they might have worked out Turkey doesn’t intend to attack them: what would be the point?
More importantly, Small Arms designs have been improved (soft attack is perhaps the most important attribute of an infantry brigade), with attention now turned to Light Artillery. Turkey must keep its infantry tech as modern as possible.
10 May 40
A report from the Belgian front early in the morning has some good news: in the last two and a half days, Brugge has been retaken! We are not sure by whose troops (Belgian, French or the division of British marines operating under Dutch colours who made it out of the fall of the Netherlands and were spotted earlier operating on the Channel coast). But further east, the fall of Hasselt and Bastogne leaves the key defensive strongpoint of Liége very exposed.
[In OTL: At this point, Neville Chamberlain had resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Winston Churchill was sworn in to replace him. This followed the failed expedition to Norway and came on the day the invasion of France and the Low Countries commenced. No sign of a change of British PM in our ATL, with no German invasion of Norway, hence no fall of Oslo or ‘Norwegian Debate’ event in the UK Parliament.]
11 May 40
1 Mil Bde attacks and rapidly crushes the uprising in Birjand. For now, it seems a single MIL bde is enough for the suppression of nationalists in the Iranian GNRs.
13 May 40
The first of the new licensed MOT brigades is delivered, with all Russian equipment. It is assigned to the famous 1 Cav Div of Wehib Pasha, which is now fully motorised. The 1st Cav Bde is combined with the old CV-33 LARM brigade to form a light Quick Reaction Force, which may be added to later.
13-15 May 40 – The Secret War in France
And the espionage battle in France rages on, with another of our spies captured. Ögel’s team there is back down to 7 again, still against 4 French Sŭréte agents. The attrition is starting to tell: despite the recent useful stolen techs, the Armament Ministry is starting to question whether the LS spent on Espionage might be more safely and effectively used for more research, or officer training for the expanding Turkish Army. But Ögel pleads for more time, given his recent successes.
But on 14 May, another French spy is captured, then two more in a single day on 15 May! This is a disaster: strength is now down to 4, and the Sŭréte is at 5. Ögel’s working assumption is that this is connected somehow with the German attack on the West: perhaps the French are reacting to German espionage and our Turkish agents are being caught up in the crossfire. Whatever the cause, Ögel reluctantly orders the rest of the team to go to ground, cease all active operations and attempt to survive. Their only role now is to make reports on the Western War [Ed: I’ve made a deal with myself that if all our spies in France are eliminated, there will be no more access to those fortnightly troop disposition snapshots I’ve been tagging to produce. The loss of all those assets would remove my premise for providing them.]
14 May 40
Bad news from Belgium: the key fortified city of Liége was occupied by the Germans at 2000. Belgian surrender progress stands at 25.9%, with 18.2% of VPs taken and NU of 70.2%
15 May 40
At 0600, The first detailed snapshot of the Belgian front is prepared by our agents in Paris. German medium panzer divisions are leading the assault across the north. Of interest, it is indeed Britain’s 1st Royal Marines who retook Brugge and they appear to be attacking the Germans to the north-east in Middleburg. Similarly, a German panzer division has occupied Gent, but is being counter-attacked by the French. This is just as well, as a dangerous gap in the line has opened in Aalst, behind Antwerp. In the east, it looks like French and Belgian troops in Namur are trying to retake Liége, while the French are also counter-attacking in the south at Dinant. German troop numbers across the Belgian front are not yet high, though more may be on their way (unseen) from Holland and Germany. For now, a reasonable resistance is being put up 10 days after the attack on Belgium commenced.
Apart from a German attack on the Maginot Line province of Wissemburg, things remain fairly quiet on the Franco-German border. It looks like the French have finally begun to plug the gap around Sedan-Longuyon. Maybe they can prevent the outflanking of their main eastern defences, but danger beckons. We have no reports of the air war as yet.
The other early-morning news is that Finland is mobilising again. A check of their diplomatic status shows them now being influenced by Germany and moving quite rapidly in their direction, but not yet close enough to join the Axis.
All these developments are briefed to Cabinet, which will meet in the evening to consider next steps: stay the course with the defensive ‘fortify, prepare and wait’ strategy, leaving France and its Western Allies to fend for themselves? Or the course of ‘forward defence, preserve the Balkan Dominions and use France to create a two-front war on the Germans'?
Coming Up: The Cabinet has yet another crucial decision to make – perhaps the most dangerous yet. What is the greater risk: going to war too early and risking the destruction of the Glorious Union and Turkish Motherland, or leaving it too late to surrender the initiative to the Axis, with a ravening wolf at the door in a year’s time? The views of strategic commentators and tactical advisors alike are sought to help the Cabinet prepare for its great debate. Will the West be able to hold long enough to allow a Turkish decision to be timely enough, given it would take some time to get a forward defence into place if it was ordered? Not much point opting for a two-front war against Germany if the Western one is already falling. And would the Soviets respond positively to the clarion call of a Turkish declaration of war against the Fascist hyenas? Or might Stalin consider the idea to be lunacy and let Turkey and Romania stand alone, with the certain fall of Romania and an ignominious retreat to the original defensive lines, sacrificing a precious year of defensive preparations?
1 May 40
Given events in Western Europe, where the Belgians and French (with some small British support on land) are up against the Germans, the Cabinet believes it is timely to review and compare some key unit types to those of the combatants – in this case the basic building block of any army, the standard infantry division. Our intelligence sources in France are used to get information on equivalent French, Belgian and German formations.
First, the standard Turkish division now consists of three infantry and one artillery brigade, giving at a ‘counter face value’ of 4-4 (attack-defence). Infantry brigades are now ‘level IV+’, with organisation of 45, morale of 35 and other statistics as illustrated below.
A check of Belgian, French and German units (the latter from notional battlefield reporting from the conflict so far) show each of them to be virtually identical in terms of standard infantry brigade stats. Below is an example of a standard French infantry division and brigade. Virtually all their infantry divisions are triangular 3 x INF, giving them a ‘counter strength’ of 3-4.
The secondary Turkish division pattern (light divisions) is 2 x INF and 1 x AT, giving a 3-3 strength.
At least Turkey’s infantry force is up to equivalent modern standards to those now fighting in the West, including the Germans. Of course, the same is unlikely to be true of doctrine research, while the strength or armoured and mechanised units is that of the licensed units bought from the Soviets. And the Air Force Chief simply wants some half-modern planes to play with – perhaps something can be arranged in the near future.
At 7pm, Amsterdam falls to the German - the Dutch capital is relocated to Rotterdam. That brings surrender progress for the Netherlands to 29.3%, with 21.8% of VPs lost against NU of 74.4%.
3 May 40
As the few remaining Netherlands ‘homeland’ provinces begin to fall to the Germans, a major advance is made for the Turkish army, bringing it further into the mid-20th century. With radios now being issued throughout the army, research focus turns to Delay Doctrine, which aims to give an important boost for the morale of our now considerable number of support brigades – an area which, through competing priorities, has been neglected so far.
4 May 40
Rotterdam has now fallen, leaving Den Haag as the only province (and VP city) left in the Netherlands itself. The Dutch make the interesting decision to relocate their capital to Palembang (on the island of Sumatra in the Dutch East Indies), rather than Batavia.
5 May 40
At 0600, Den Haag is occupied by the Germans, signalling the fall of the Netherlands’ last European province. But the country itself fights on, through its overseas colonies.
At 1600, 1 Mil Bde reports it has arrived in Borun and will now prepare to attack the ‘Persian Nationalists’ in Birjand, after they reorganise from their long train trip. At the same time, more momentous news is heard: having now fully occupied the Netherlands, the Germans declare war straight away on Belgium (some of their light armour can be seen below moving into battle). It is at this point that the Turkish Cabinet begins referring to the campaign as the ‘Western War’: GW2 (Great War II) has now embarked on its most dangerous and significant phase so far. The Polish Campaign and all the minor invasions to date have been a prelude to this. Now the world will see how formidable the Wehrmacht is against what many still consider the foremost military power of Europe.
6 May 40
French in Action – May 1940
The Turkish War Cabinet is now meeting in emergency session. A map is provided showing the key cities in Belgium and northern France and the terrain over which the Battle for Belgium will be fought. There is some useful defensive terrain in the eastern half of the country: rivers, woods and hills, with fortifications in Liége (L3) and Namur (L1) adding to the natural defences. Antwerpen (Antwerp) (L1) and Bruxelles (Brussels) (L1) also have forts to augment their river-line defences. If the reasonably strong (and long mobilised) Belgian Army can be augmented by French and other Allied forces, they may impose some delay on the German advance, though the occupation of the Netherlands has outflanked their eastern defences and will thin their line out. One can hope, but it is hard to see the Germans being held for too long before a breakthrough is achieved – with the expectation they will attempt the same ‘blitzkrieg’ tactics they did in Poland.
Prime Minister Celal Bayar suggests the Cabinet should review progress in the Western War mid-month, with a view to considering Turkish options. He suggests that if it looks like the French and their Allies may be able to hold the Germans (Great War One style), perhaps Turkey could explore whether there was any chance of persuading the Soviets to abrogate their non-aggression pact with the Nazis to give them a war on two fronts, with Turkey at their side. Other Cabinet members are sceptical, but agree it can at least be considered. Cabinet will meet on the evening of 15 May to consider its options. The key questions to be answered:
- If Turkey were to declare war on Germany, would the Soviets and the rest of the Comintern follow?
- Would the rest of the Axis (which now includes Italy, Hungary and Japan) also join in?
- What would the relative strengths be and would it be worth attacking early, while the Germans are deeply involved in France? Or should Turkey wait as planned all along, risking the fall of France, but allowing the Soviet and Glorious Unions to prepare further (though also allowing the Germans the same luxury)?
Entertainment Report: US. John Steinbeck wins a Pulitzer Prize for his novel The Grapes of Wrath. Set during the Great Depression, the novel focuses on the Joads, a poor family of tenant farmers driven from their Oklahoma home by drought, economic hardship, agricultural industry changes and bank foreclosures forcing tenant farmers out of work.
The 'Grapes of Wrath': a very appropriate title for such a troubled time.
Sports News. The International Olympic Committee formally cancels the 1940 Summer Olympics. The 1940 Summer Olympics, officially known as the Games of the XII Olympiad, were originally scheduled to be held from 21 September to 6 October 1940, in Tokyo, Japan. They were rescheduled for Helsinki (the city that had been the runner-up in the original bidding process), to be held from July 20 to August 4, 1940, but were ultimately cancelled due to the outbreak of the Second Great War.
A poster from the now aborted 12th Olympiad. Two 'Axis Games' in a row may have been too much to take.
7 May 40
In what could be a significant sign (and following earlier intelligence reports and speculation about a likely Italian entry into the war), our border posts report significant movement of Italian troops away from the shared border in the west of former Yugoslavia. A threat for France – an opportunity for the Glorious Union?
A new GAR bde is delivered to Antalya to boost the port defence there. Given the proximity of Italian and British naval bases (in Rhodes and Cyprus), this is only prudent.
And a second MIL bde is raised in Antakya, for similar reasons, ready to garrison Iskenderun in the event of war with Italy.
And, following his impassioned presentation to Cabinet, Chief of Staff and Air Force Chief Ali Örlungat is finally given his wish: a license is bought for a wing of Polykarpov I-16s from the Soviets. They will be expensive in IC outlay, but a start needs to be made. With luck, better aircraft will be available in the future and beginning to produce fighters now will lower production costs then.
By 1500 that day, the Germans have made some limited inroads since the start of the attack on Belgium two days ago. The seizure of Brugge is concerning, lest it turn into a grand outflanking move by the Wehrmacht. Detailed reports from the front will only be periodic. We are currently just tracking reports of the fall of provinces to discern German progress.
9 May 40
Another Afghan spy is apprehended. It is becoming routine. You would think by now they might have worked out Turkey doesn’t intend to attack them: what would be the point?
More importantly, Small Arms designs have been improved (soft attack is perhaps the most important attribute of an infantry brigade), with attention now turned to Light Artillery. Turkey must keep its infantry tech as modern as possible.
10 May 40
A report from the Belgian front early in the morning has some good news: in the last two and a half days, Brugge has been retaken! We are not sure by whose troops (Belgian, French or the division of British marines operating under Dutch colours who made it out of the fall of the Netherlands and were spotted earlier operating on the Channel coast). But further east, the fall of Hasselt and Bastogne leaves the key defensive strongpoint of Liége very exposed.
[In OTL: At this point, Neville Chamberlain had resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Winston Churchill was sworn in to replace him. This followed the failed expedition to Norway and came on the day the invasion of France and the Low Countries commenced. No sign of a change of British PM in our ATL, with no German invasion of Norway, hence no fall of Oslo or ‘Norwegian Debate’ event in the UK Parliament.]
11 May 40
1 Mil Bde attacks and rapidly crushes the uprising in Birjand. For now, it seems a single MIL bde is enough for the suppression of nationalists in the Iranian GNRs.
13 May 40
The first of the new licensed MOT brigades is delivered, with all Russian equipment. It is assigned to the famous 1 Cav Div of Wehib Pasha, which is now fully motorised. The 1st Cav Bde is combined with the old CV-33 LARM brigade to form a light Quick Reaction Force, which may be added to later.
13-15 May 40 – The Secret War in France
And the espionage battle in France rages on, with another of our spies captured. Ögel’s team there is back down to 7 again, still against 4 French Sŭréte agents. The attrition is starting to tell: despite the recent useful stolen techs, the Armament Ministry is starting to question whether the LS spent on Espionage might be more safely and effectively used for more research, or officer training for the expanding Turkish Army. But Ögel pleads for more time, given his recent successes.
But on 14 May, another French spy is captured, then two more in a single day on 15 May! This is a disaster: strength is now down to 4, and the Sŭréte is at 5. Ögel’s working assumption is that this is connected somehow with the German attack on the West: perhaps the French are reacting to German espionage and our Turkish agents are being caught up in the crossfire. Whatever the cause, Ögel reluctantly orders the rest of the team to go to ground, cease all active operations and attempt to survive. Their only role now is to make reports on the Western War [Ed: I’ve made a deal with myself that if all our spies in France are eliminated, there will be no more access to those fortnightly troop disposition snapshots I’ve been tagging to produce. The loss of all those assets would remove my premise for providing them.]
14 May 40
Bad news from Belgium: the key fortified city of Liége was occupied by the Germans at 2000. Belgian surrender progress stands at 25.9%, with 18.2% of VPs taken and NU of 70.2%
15 May 40
At 0600, The first detailed snapshot of the Belgian front is prepared by our agents in Paris. German medium panzer divisions are leading the assault across the north. Of interest, it is indeed Britain’s 1st Royal Marines who retook Brugge and they appear to be attacking the Germans to the north-east in Middleburg. Similarly, a German panzer division has occupied Gent, but is being counter-attacked by the French. This is just as well, as a dangerous gap in the line has opened in Aalst, behind Antwerp. In the east, it looks like French and Belgian troops in Namur are trying to retake Liége, while the French are also counter-attacking in the south at Dinant. German troop numbers across the Belgian front are not yet high, though more may be on their way (unseen) from Holland and Germany. For now, a reasonable resistance is being put up 10 days after the attack on Belgium commenced.
Apart from a German attack on the Maginot Line province of Wissemburg, things remain fairly quiet on the Franco-German border. It looks like the French have finally begun to plug the gap around Sedan-Longuyon. Maybe they can prevent the outflanking of their main eastern defences, but danger beckons. We have no reports of the air war as yet.
The other early-morning news is that Finland is mobilising again. A check of their diplomatic status shows them now being influenced by Germany and moving quite rapidly in their direction, but not yet close enough to join the Axis.
All these developments are briefed to Cabinet, which will meet in the evening to consider next steps: stay the course with the defensive ‘fortify, prepare and wait’ strategy, leaving France and its Western Allies to fend for themselves? Or the course of ‘forward defence, preserve the Balkan Dominions and use France to create a two-front war on the Germans'?
Coming Up: The Cabinet has yet another crucial decision to make – perhaps the most dangerous yet. What is the greater risk: going to war too early and risking the destruction of the Glorious Union and Turkish Motherland, or leaving it too late to surrender the initiative to the Axis, with a ravening wolf at the door in a year’s time? The views of strategic commentators and tactical advisors alike are sought to help the Cabinet prepare for its great debate. Will the West be able to hold long enough to allow a Turkish decision to be timely enough, given it would take some time to get a forward defence into place if it was ordered? Not much point opting for a two-front war against Germany if the Western one is already falling. And would the Soviets respond positively to the clarion call of a Turkish declaration of war against the Fascist hyenas? Or might Stalin consider the idea to be lunacy and let Turkey and Romania stand alone, with the certain fall of Romania and an ignominious retreat to the original defensive lines, sacrificing a precious year of defensive preparations?
Last edited:
- 1
Chapter 74A: Briefing Material for 15 May 1940 Cabinet Meeting – Reports and Military Atlas
Chapter 74A: Briefing Material for 15 May 1940 Cabinet Meeting – Reports and Military Atlas
Prior to Cabinet consideration, some reports are made [Ed. Also for the benefit of readers who may wish to offer views, advice, comments etc – all welcome, even those who may only have looked on so far.]
Diplomatic Briefing
Aras begins with the crucial Foreign Ministry perspective.
Armed Forces CoS Ali Örlungat notes that an early declaration of general war by the Comintern would mean Germany and Italy’s forces in Europe would need to simultaneously confront France, the UK and Belgium in the field in the West, and the Soviets, Turkey and Romania in the east.
Inönü, in his role as Armament Minister, presents some key thoughts from that perspective:
Balkan Front
The first map shows the Axis forces currently mustered on the western (former Yugoslavia) border of the Glorious Union. As previously noted, the relatively large Italian garrison can be seen beginning to pull out in part, presumably being called to the French border. Germany and Hungary generally have one, sometimes two infantry divisions in their border provinces. Turkey has so far left these borders undefended.
The second map shows the Hungarian-Romanian border, where the fraternal Romanian Army enjoys a significant numerical advantage. Not shown in this map, the Soviets also have some significant strength mustered to the north of Hungary’s eastern salient.
Soviet Borders
On the ‘Lwow Front’, The Soviets have significant strength gathered against the Hungarians, and a reasonable numerical superiority against the German infantry-based garrison in the southern sector of occupied Poland.
Around Brest-Litovsk, numbers appear more even, though some new Soviet forces are coming into location.
Considerable Soviet forces are currently gathered on the borders of the three Baltic States, presumably to exert pressure on them to acquiesce to Soviet demands to ‘return’ to the Soviet Union. The question of whether to wait for the Soviets to issue their planned ultimatum before any hypothetical declaration of war is an important one. It is unknown if the Soviets would (in the event of war with Germany before an annexation of the Baltics) leave these troops in place, or feel free to redeploy them to a more limited front with Germany. Either way, it would be some time yet before these troops would be redeployed to a new front line.
And in southern Finland, some significant Soviet forces are still massed. Finland has not yet joined the Axis but is drifting towards them (under intense German influence) quickly. The Soviets would likely retain these forces in place, especially given Finland’s recent mobilisation, so soon after their abject loss in the ‘Winter War’ of 1939-40. If it comes to war again soon, the result here is open: while Finland has not had much time to recover, the Soviets would be forced to ration their efforts, with two other major fronts (Germany and potentially Japan) to worry about.
The ‘Yeniçeri Line’
The General Staff have named this provisional non-fortified forward defensive line after the famous Turkish janissary. The janissaries (Ottoman Turkish: yeniçeri, meaning “new soldier”) were elite infantry units that formed the Ottoman Sultan's household troops, bodyguards and the first modern standing army in Europe. The corps was most likely established during the reign of Murad I (1362–89). They were disbanded in the 19th century.
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk wearing the traditional Janissary uniform at
a masquerade ball during his early years in the Ottoman Army.
(2:06min)
Ottoman Janissary Military (Mehter) Band – Attack March: if this can’t rouse
the troops to the march proudly along the Path to Glory, nothing can!
The first map shows the overall position of the proposed Yeniçeri Line. Apart from its use of terrain across the narrowest forward point that can anchor the Romanian left, it attempts to shield Beograd (as seen from previous analysis, a key resource and population centre for the UGNR). It should also allow some time for digging in after a declaration of war, but before Axis troop should be able to arrive in any force (10 days needed for full entrenchment). However, the northern half of the former Yugoslavia would still have to be sacrificed. If adopted, some care would need to be taken over the join between the northern point of the line and the Romanian left flank, either through assigning suitable defensive objectives for the Romanians or, if that fails, having a reserve force of 1-2 divisions available to plug any gap.
In this more detailed view, it can be seen the line is nine provinces wide. Depending on how many units are left in reserve back at the main defensive lines further south, the general staff estimate they should be able to maintain a solid line of 1-2 divisions per province, with some in reserve for relief in place or the plugging of gaps (or to cover a withdrawal if broken or the Romanians are forced to retreat on the right. Of note, there is only one ‘open plains’ province in the line (Sabac), and it has a secure river line defence on four sides, facing the enemy approach. Should Cabinet adopt a forward defence approach, detailed troop allocations would be made accordingly, with the mountain divisions operating in the south-west.
Prior to Cabinet consideration, some reports are made [Ed. Also for the benefit of readers who may wish to offer views, advice, comments etc – all welcome, even those who may only have looked on so far.]
Diplomatic Briefing
Aras begins with the crucial Foreign Ministry perspective.
- While the Soviet Union has a non-aggression treaty with the Germans as a result of last year’s Neurath-Litvinov Pact, analysts believe a Turkish declaration of war on Germany would allow the Soviets to bypass or negate this.
- A declaration on Germany would in all likelihood bring in the rest of the Axis into a general global war: Germany, Italy and Japan (plus all their puppets) and Hungary. This should trigger the Comintern to also enter in support: principally the Soviet Union (plus its puppets), Turkey and Romania (Turkey’s puppet, but a significant middle power in its own right).
- If Japan honoured its pact with Germany, this would bring them into the war early, giving the Soviets a war on two fronts.
- The US would remain neutral for now, though may well choose to provide more material support to the Allies.
- We are aware the Soviets are considering annexing the Baltic States through an ultimatum: they could do this now, but are holding off. We expect it would be issued sometime in June, but cannot be sure if it will, or exactly when this might happen. We understand an early war with Germany, before that ultimatum has been issued, would void the plan. Whether this would be an advantage or disadvantage for the Comintern is not fully clear.
Armed Forces CoS Ali Örlungat notes that an early declaration of general war by the Comintern would mean Germany and Italy’s forces in Europe would need to simultaneously confront France, the UK and Belgium in the field in the West, and the Soviets, Turkey and Romania in the east.
- The aim of such an intervention would be to try to ensure France at least remains in the fight while catching the Germans off guard in the east, perhaps allowing some initial gains and forcing Hitler to decide which front to prioritise.
- In the Mediterranean, keeping France in the war also means their fleet would remain active and, combined with the powerful British fleet, Turkey would be banking on the Allies keeping Italy’s naval ambitions in check.
- And given we understand Italy (through its alliance with Germany and with recent observed troop movements) is preparing to stab France in the back, this would also force them to split their efforts between the French border, their border with the Glorious Union and Africa.
- Hungary has a relatively powerful military, but this could be counteracted – perhaps even overmatched – by the Romanian Army, which is mobilised and, since the entry into the Comintern, now concentrated on the Hungarian border, no longer needing to garrison its border with the Soviet Union.
- On the other hand, while many of the building blocks of the Calistar and Iskandar Lines have been completed, a forward defence strategy would be required to ensure Romania was not completely outflanked.
- This would require most main line Turkish divisions to be deployed well forward, probably in the shortest and most defensively advantageous line that can be established. This would have to be done without the benefit of any additional fortifications or static air defences, meaning a far greater risk of exposure and destruction should the Axis attack through the former Yugoslavia in force. Holding there would depend on the overall strategy ensuring that the Germans (in particular) would be too widely spread to concentrate such force against that part of the Comintern line.
- However, if the strategy fails and the whole front looked like falling, it may be possible for enough units to race back to the static defences in time to hold them, especially if at least one ‘garrison’ division is left to entrench in each of the four key locations. But this would be a risk - perhaps a fatal one.
- This would require most main line Turkish divisions to be deployed well forward, probably in the shortest and most defensively advantageous line that can be established. This would have to be done without the benefit of any additional fortifications or static air defences, meaning a far greater risk of exposure and destruction should the Axis attack through the former Yugoslavia in force. Holding there would depend on the overall strategy ensuring that the Germans (in particular) would be too widely spread to concentrate such force against that part of the Comintern line.
Inönü, in his role as Armament Minister, presents some key thoughts from that perspective:
- Sacrificing up to a year of further production (for Turkey and the Soviet Union) would be counteracted by a similar privilege being denied to the Germans.
- While bringing the Soviets into a full war footing early would allow their colossal industrial and manpower resources to be fully harnessed early.
- It would also hamper any German plans to defeat France first, then prepare for and execute another ‘blitzkrieg’ on the Soviet and Glorious Unions with a fully concentrated and rested force.
- The relative industrial production merits of going soon or waiting are difficult to quantify accurately. Perhaps some industry experts may have views or analysis to share on that aspect.
Balkan Front
The first map shows the Axis forces currently mustered on the western (former Yugoslavia) border of the Glorious Union. As previously noted, the relatively large Italian garrison can be seen beginning to pull out in part, presumably being called to the French border. Germany and Hungary generally have one, sometimes two infantry divisions in their border provinces. Turkey has so far left these borders undefended.
The second map shows the Hungarian-Romanian border, where the fraternal Romanian Army enjoys a significant numerical advantage. Not shown in this map, the Soviets also have some significant strength mustered to the north of Hungary’s eastern salient.
Soviet Borders
On the ‘Lwow Front’, The Soviets have significant strength gathered against the Hungarians, and a reasonable numerical superiority against the German infantry-based garrison in the southern sector of occupied Poland.
Around Brest-Litovsk, numbers appear more even, though some new Soviet forces are coming into location.
Considerable Soviet forces are currently gathered on the borders of the three Baltic States, presumably to exert pressure on them to acquiesce to Soviet demands to ‘return’ to the Soviet Union. The question of whether to wait for the Soviets to issue their planned ultimatum before any hypothetical declaration of war is an important one. It is unknown if the Soviets would (in the event of war with Germany before an annexation of the Baltics) leave these troops in place, or feel free to redeploy them to a more limited front with Germany. Either way, it would be some time yet before these troops would be redeployed to a new front line.
And in southern Finland, some significant Soviet forces are still massed. Finland has not yet joined the Axis but is drifting towards them (under intense German influence) quickly. The Soviets would likely retain these forces in place, especially given Finland’s recent mobilisation, so soon after their abject loss in the ‘Winter War’ of 1939-40. If it comes to war again soon, the result here is open: while Finland has not had much time to recover, the Soviets would be forced to ration their efforts, with two other major fronts (Germany and potentially Japan) to worry about.
The ‘Yeniçeri Line’
The General Staff have named this provisional non-fortified forward defensive line after the famous Turkish janissary. The janissaries (Ottoman Turkish: yeniçeri, meaning “new soldier”) were elite infantry units that formed the Ottoman Sultan's household troops, bodyguards and the first modern standing army in Europe. The corps was most likely established during the reign of Murad I (1362–89). They were disbanded in the 19th century.
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk wearing the traditional Janissary uniform at
a masquerade ball during his early years in the Ottoman Army.
Ottoman Janissary Military (Mehter) Band – Attack March: if this can’t rouse
the troops to the march proudly along the Path to Glory, nothing can!
The first map shows the overall position of the proposed Yeniçeri Line. Apart from its use of terrain across the narrowest forward point that can anchor the Romanian left, it attempts to shield Beograd (as seen from previous analysis, a key resource and population centre for the UGNR). It should also allow some time for digging in after a declaration of war, but before Axis troop should be able to arrive in any force (10 days needed for full entrenchment). However, the northern half of the former Yugoslavia would still have to be sacrificed. If adopted, some care would need to be taken over the join between the northern point of the line and the Romanian left flank, either through assigning suitable defensive objectives for the Romanians or, if that fails, having a reserve force of 1-2 divisions available to plug any gap.
In this more detailed view, it can be seen the line is nine provinces wide. Depending on how many units are left in reserve back at the main defensive lines further south, the general staff estimate they should be able to maintain a solid line of 1-2 divisions per province, with some in reserve for relief in place or the plugging of gaps (or to cover a withdrawal if broken or the Romanians are forced to retreat on the right. Of note, there is only one ‘open plains’ province in the line (Sabac), and it has a secure river line defence on four sides, facing the enemy approach. Should Cabinet adopt a forward defence approach, detailed troop allocations would be made accordingly, with the mountain divisions operating in the south-west.
Last edited:
- 1
You're obviously talking about Belgium here...
I'd say that from an industrial point of view declaring sooner rather than later would be to the advantage of the Comintern, as I'm sure the German economy is already fully mobilised right now, while the Soviet bear is half asleep... If you declare war now, the Soviets will be outpacing the Germans sooner in quantity, and you preserve more of Allied IC from falling into German hands quickly, increasing the Comintern IC and especially MP and Resources advantage... From a long term industrial point of view, war now would be better than war later.
I think that having the Baltic states is a significant advantage, especially as the AI would in all probability keep manning those borders in case of war, making the actual front that the Red Army is manning longer, and not shorter...
Seeing the thin German lines on the Soviet Border, I would suggest waiting another month or so, crossing fingers in the hope that our diplomats annex the Baltic states. Once the Baltic states are annexed, you may declare war immediately...
By doing so you would be making things a lot harder for the Germans, and probably a bit harder for the Soviet Union, as they would have to deal with the Japs as well...
The Soviet Union has the troops to make a serious initial advance once we've taken the Baltic states. We could probably take most of Western Poland before the Germans can move up reinforcements from the West and/or the North. Especially considering that the German line on the Eastern front is exceptionally thin. (In my SU game it was a bit thicker during the battle of France as you may well remember...)
The Soviet Union would not mind an early war with the Axis, as long as Turkey waits for us to take over the Baltics... Then again, maybe if you declare war now, our diplomats will get off their hindquarters and make the annexation happen sooner...
- 1
Forgot Italy still had Rhodes. Need to get that back a ton some point. Cyprus shouldn't be too hard since the Brits are probably going to back out of the Middle East anyway...
This is good. The German war machine (OtL) really can't sustain a massive war for very long with the resources it has. What it really, really needs to do is go after somewhere with oil, and lots of it. Any time and resources wasted on the western front (which gives them nothing but security from attack) is a good thing for the allies and the rest of the world.
They might be the ones asked to attack Norway in this game, since the Germans can't seem to be able to. This could be a problem. I foresee that all of Scandinavia would eventually end up owned by the British or the Russians if Norway and Finland go to war.
Which would not be a good thing for the allies, both inuniverse and for the AI. Advantages gained by having the Russians and Turks mess with the German attack would be lost by the British especially floundering in the Pacific.
Italy is only a problem for France in that they can strike now in the south, which wouldn't be good. Everywhere else and ATM any other time, they aren't much of a threat. Neither isnhhngary for that mantel, not when it's surrounded by Russians, Romanians and Turks.
I don't think bringing Japan into the war would be a good thing overall but turkey and Russia attacking Hungary or Italy now would be a good distraction for the Germans. What I would say is that, at the moment, you could easily taken Hungary if Germany doesn't turn all of its forces toward defending it, which they won't because that will make them lose the war.
Italy in the other hand is more troubling. Unlike with Hungary, turkey has a lot to gain personally from Italy, from lots of important islands, the last bit of baltic territory they have left, colonies in Africa that were part of the Ottoman Empire and whatever you fancy on the peninsula itself. But...they are Turkeys equal or superior across the board in terms of war and to fight them, you'd first have to defeat Hungary and then hope Russian troops not only invade Germany but also follow you into Italy....or hope the French will. But that's how I'd the invasions if I had to and could to the best of my ability stop the entire axis declaring war.
Hungary with Russia, Russia attacks Germany, you attack Italy. Allies probably invade Germany but France might help with Italy. And then you win, though obvs you have to waiting for Japan to finally be beaten before the war ends because you can't do anything about them.
The problems with this are
A. Russia might no the follow you into battle which means you will probably lose if not at Hungary then soon afterwards.
B. France and Belgium might fall regardless which means Germany and Italy can turn around and pulverise you. Mind you, we have the defensive lines for that very outcome and I suppose therefore that this is not so much a problem but a big risk.
C. Japan will enter the war and screw up everyone's AI. And you can't fight them yourself either so you won't be able to do anything about it.
So in summary, if you think the rest of the Comintern will follow you to war, if you think France will hold, if you think of some way to get around Japan being in the war and if you think you can lead a campaign against Italy with a random amount of help, then declaring war is a good idea. If one or more of these is not the case, stick with the plan we have because you'll probably end up in the same position anyway along the Calistar line, just with fewer resources.
- 1
Event = Germany gets Stab in the Back.
If a de-fanged Axis (4 small teeth never grew) and then fights an early two-front war? You-know-who had better already began building his bunker.
If a de-fanged Axis (4 small teeth never grew) and then fights an early two-front war? You-know-who had better already began building his bunker.
- 1
I would say wait for the USSR to take the Baltic states - let them settle in - and then go to war. The earlier the better for all Comintern as it will shift everybody into a war-time industry. Also you hit the Germans and Italians while a majority of their forces are facing the wrong way and before they are overwhelmingly stronger from THEIR war-time industry. The Japanese may hurt the Allies (well their colonies) AND the Comintern BUT I think a early entry into the war is better than a late one where the Axis occupies all of Europe and parts of Africa.
- 1
Yes, a strong point in favour.
Another good point ... but sweating on them taking too long to do it and having France too far gone to retrieve. A limited window there.
Yes, that thin German line is tempting, and the Soviets will just have to deal with the Japanese - who almost always seem to attack early in HoI3 anyway, normally already having forced the Nationalist Chinese into ceding the coast by mid 1941.
My reading of the event conditions is that it is void if the SU is at war with Germany, so I have to either wait for them to act or lose the option for them.
Yes, reasons to hit them now.
Not really so worried about Japan - per above, they always seem to stab the Soviets in the Far East anyway, all this would do is have them all at each other's throats a year early.
Agree. And Japan will fall eventually.
That's the crux of the Cabinet's discussion. Risk vs benefit, opportunity cost of not going early.
Like it!Event = Germany gets Stab in the Back.
If a de-fanged Axis (4 small teeth never grew) and then fights an early two-front war? You-know-who had better already began building his bunker.
Yes, strong points. Just need the Soviets to make their move before the French window closes. Japan will be a pest, but they will be beaten. And Britain would be far better off if they don't lose their French ally.
Cabinet has deliberated, a plan decided - just need to polish up and present the minutes, should be tomorrow, RL permitting! Thanks for the comments, all.
Last edited:
- 1
Chapter 75: Special War Cabinet Meeting (15 May 1940)
Chapter 75: Special War Cabinet Meeting (15 May 1940)
Ankara, 15 May 1940. Unknown to the general population, who are just getting used to a period of peace, great decisions are being taken behind closed doors.
15 May 40 - Ankara
The flags of Turkey and the Union of Glorious National Republics.
President Ismet Inönü calls the most crucial Cabinet meeting of his presidency so far to order. At stake is a decision about whether to take the war to the Axis early or to hold back, adhering to the course of action that has been Turkish policy for the last three years: to keep war away for as long as possible, let the West fend for itself, withstand an expected Axis onslaught behind carefully prepared defences, then after 2-3 years of grinding warfare alongside the Soviets, hope to take the offensive and defeat the Fascists.
But the securing of the Comintern alliance, some initial promising resistance from Belgium and France in the West and advice from the Foreign Ministry that the Comintern would support a Turkish declaration of war has got important people thinking. What a few weeks ago was just a marginal ‘what if’ is now being treated very seriously, given how thin the Axis eastern defences are now looking. It could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity - for glorious victory. Or hubris before a humiliating defeat.
Europe on 15 May 1940.
Inönü begins: “You all know why we are gathered today. And you have all read the briefing material for this meeting. We will quickly recap the key points, you may put your views and then, in what has become our traditional Cabinet process, myself and the Prime Minister will retire to discuss the decision, which I will make as President of Turkey and Milli Şef of the Union of Glorious National Republics. Let us begin with a short report from Foreign Minister Aras.”
Dr. Tewfik Rüştü Aras (b. 1883). Foreign Minister of Turkey since March 1937. Noted pro-Comintern diplomat, brought in deliberately to draw Turkey towards that bloc – mission accomplished!
Aras gets straight into his subject. “My staff have double checked the letter of the Nazi-Soviet agreements we are aware of and Intelligence Head Ögel’s analysts agree: if we declare war on the Germans, the rest of the Axis will almost certainly declare war on us. We are sure Germany will require its allies to retaliate against us. And we are sure they will answer that call, not from a feeling of mutual defensive obligation as the Allies would, but more out of a sense of bravado and misplaced feelings of destiny.”
Aras pauses for a sip of water, then continues. “Those declarations of war on us would call our own Comintern Pact into play, releasing the Soviets from any remaining non-aggression pact restrictions and giving them convenient casus belli against the Germans and the rest of the Axis. Ögel?”
Ögel takes his cue, as arranged. “Yes, our analysis is that this will occur. We believe Stalin will welcome the opportunity to take an early crack at the Germans while their back is so invitingly turned. They would never get a better chance. Hitler will have to at least transfer some considerable defensive strength to the east to deal with the new threat. So long as the French and their Allies are still in the fight and not on the brink of collapse, this splitting of forces by the Germans should either cripple their western campaign, or if they try to persist with it, they will risk losing significant territory to our Soviet allies – first occupied Poland, then even eastern Germany – perhaps Berlin itself – would be under threat.”
Şükrü Âli Ögel, (b. 1886). Head of Turkish Intelligence, the Milli EmniyetHizmeti (MAH) (National Security Service). Has a very high reputation in Cabinet due to his good work in the short ‘police action’ in Romania and seen as a ‘straight shooter’ (in all senses of the word). Has a (fictional ATL) dark, hidden past.
“Furthermore,” Ögel continues, “this would put us and the Soviets on a full war economy footing, which the Germans already enjoy. If we wait for a year or two and the Germans beat the French in the short term, they will not only greatly expand their IC and resources, but will not have to worry about a Western land front and can devote their entire economy for preparing to invade us and the Soviets. No matter what we and the Soviets can produce, the Axis is likely to produce more over the same period and then be able to throw almost all of it east.”
Inönü now focuses discussion further: “Gentlemen, these are powerful points. But before we move into the military pros and cons, please point out the risks of an early declaration of war on the Germans and their henchmen.”
“Certainly,” nods Aras. “As I mentioned at the start, a consequence of an active declaration of war by us is the likelihood of bringing the whole Axis into the war at once. The Japanese would attack our allies in the east. Not a fatal problem for them or us, perhaps, but a serious consideration nonetheless. This would also be a distraction for the Allies, but that may not be an entirely bad thing either. We don’t want them collapsing in the West, but then we don’t want them doing too well too quickly, either!"
"Also, it would bring Italy into the war immediately, though our intelligence indicates they would be likely to stab the French in the back soon in any case. As has been argued previously, a declaration now would divide the Italians' efforts three ways – France, the east and Africa (Libya and Ethiopia). This may actually be of net assistance to the French and their chances of survival. Of course, the Hungarian Axis stooges would also be brought into the conflict, but they represent both threat and opportunity. Our military advisers will talk more about that shortly.”
“Thank you, Aras,” says Inönü. “Örlungat, what do the Armed Forces advise?”
Ali Örlungat, (D.O.B. unknown). Chief of Staff and Chief of the Air Force. [Ed. the only picture and reference I can find of his existence, including trying on the Turkish 'Vikipedia', is in HoI! So this will have to do.]
CoS Örlungat replies very carefully. “There are of course pros and cons to an early war declaration. It is a bold course, carrying greater potential benefits than waiting, but also some significant risks. How severe the risks are will depend on some variables that we can monitor, but are basically out of our hands. Let us work through them now.”
“First, there is the variable of timing. If we strike too early, we run the risk of the Germans being able to withdraw relatively unscathed front-line units from the war in France and sending them east instead. It would take them some time, but with strategic movement and interior lines, they could make their presence felt before our Soviet allies have made significant inroads. Especially as we cannot direct them and must rely on their initiative to wage an aggressive war while time is on our side. If we wait too long, then France may be doomed and we risk being only a minor inconvenience to the Germans while they complete their conquest of France then face us with their main force.
Field Marshal Mehmet Nuri Yamut (b. 1890). Chief of the Turkish Army.
Army Chief Yamut takes up the discussion: “It would take our Army at least a couple of weeks to readjust to the proposed forward defensive line in former Yugoslavia. Before which we should avoid any declaration. Let’s say by the end of the month, we should be in position and able to assess how things are going in the West. If things start looking dangerous there, it could be a line ball decision as to whether there is still time to save the French, or we revert to our original defence in depth strategy and wait for the wolf to come to us. But we would hope to hit the Hungarians hard through our Romanian and Soviet allies - possibly even knocking them out of the war.”
Aras chimes in again at this point: “Remember, we are relying on the Soviets being ready to strike, and they still have considerable forces aligned against the Baltic States. We believe they will seek to pressure them into joining the Soviet Union under threat of conquest. If we declare war before they have completed that plan, all that territory and the forces deployed there will not be available for an attack on the Germans. And Stalin may not be pleased at this interference in his grander plans. We believe the Baltic annexation is imminent, but can’t be sure of when they will move, though we anticipate around mid-June.”
“Can’t we just ask them to do it now?” says Örlungat, with some exasperation.
“I’m afraid not,” replies Aras. “First we’re not meant to know they are planning this little exercise. And second, the iron laws of international diplomacy forbid it. We will just have to await events – and it could be a very suspenseful wait!” [Ed. In other words, there is no in-game mechanism for requesting an AI-run country to trigger such an event. And – tempting though it might be – my ‘no-tag’ pledge applies.]
The Baltic States: three loose ends in dire need of being tied off. Hurry up, Uncle Joe!
“Very well,” summarises Örlungat. “That is the broad equation. We don’t believe we should risk an early declaration before the following conditions are met: first, our forces have redeployed fully to the new ‘Yeniçeri Line’, so they are able to start digging in as soon as any declaration of war is made. Second, the Soviets have annexed the Baltics and most of their forces are available to join the fight, even if they are not all in the border area yet. They will get there quicker than the Germans can move troops back from France. At that point, the third condition applies: the French must still be credibly in the fight and we assess that an intervention in the east has a better than even chance of keeping them in the fight, thus fatally (we hope) splitting the German forces on two fronts. The rest – Hungary, Romania, possibly Finland; a Japanese attack in the Far East – they are all peripheral issues. Operational questions, not decisive strategic issues, as far as we are concerned in Turkey. We can plan and talk about those later.”
Inönü now speaks up in his capacity as Armament Minister (essentially Defence or War Minister and Economic/Finance Minister). “As has been alluded to, the great advantage to us in an early war is the increased manpower and production that will ensue. In part for Turkey, but more importantly for our Soviet allies, on whom we must rely for the great bulk of the heavy fighting against the Fascist juggernaut. Rather than waiting for a German hammer blow at the time and place of their choosing, there is the prospect of some early gains, a hampered German response, and more time for the great gears of Soviet industry and their vast population to be fully mobilised. And with the Glorious Union and Romania to assist them, they can fight over a relatively limited front with a preponderance of numbers that will only increase as time goes on. That may be the single greatest advantage of this course of action, or at least equal to the advantage of having our main enemy fight a serious two-front war.”
Prime Minister Bayar has observed carefully but said nothing yet. He now makes his first statement of the debate. “You all know I generally favour the forward-defence approach, preserving as much of our Balkan dominions as we can and taking the fight to the scourge of the world, the egregious and malign Herr Hitler. I am also willing to entertain an actual early intervention in the war if we can be sure our Soviet friends will come to the party. But I am not reckless in these views. We must fully consider the most dangerous risks. We have heard of some of them, and ways to prevent a rash decision by waiting until the decisive point and not finally committing until we and the Soviets are both ready and we are reasonably sure the French can still survive. But what else is there? What if we take the plunge but find we have underestimated the capacity of the Germans? What else could go wrong? Who will speak to these issues? Fear not, this table is one where all can speak honestly. The decision will rest with our President alone. He wants to hear all views.”
Şükrü Kaya, (b. 1883). Minister of the Interior (Security). He was born in the Dodecanese when they were still part of the Ottoman Empire. He no doubt hankers to see the islands returned to their rightful ownership. [Has a (real) dark past we won’t go into on this forum.]
“Very well,” replies Kaya. The Security (Interior) Minister is a natural pessimist and sceptic – ideally suited to the role of Devil’s Advocate. Indeed, many believe him to be the Devil himself, not his mere legal representative!
“We’ve talked about it before. Our army could become badly exposed if deployed forward. We have no credible air cover available, no forward air defences will be there, no fortifications. Sure, we can fall back to the two main defensive lines if necessary, but may be too weakened to hold them by then. We may need to surrender Greece without a real fight, sacrificing all our investment there and the opportunity to grind down the Axis against set defences, just to be able to defend the main Calistar Line. And we even risk undermining our defence there, on which the fate of the entire Motherland rests. If the Axis breaks through there, all is lost. You will want to be very sure about the calculation: you may end up destroying the nation for a mere mirage of glory.”
Admiral Mehmet Ali Üngen [Ülgen], (b. 1887). Chief of the Turkish Navy.
Navy Chief Mehmet Ali Üngen [real spelling Ülgen] also feels obliged to offer some cautionary advice. “Remember too, our Navy is small and primitive. The Italians have a powerful fleet and a few bases very near the Turkish coast, in the Dodecanese Islands and Rhodes (Rodi). We cannot fully rely on Allied naval superiority to protect our long maritime flank on the Mediterranean. If we push too far forward and are heavily engaged and then there is a major naval landing by the Italians in our rear, all could be lost, especially if most of the reserves earmarked for countering such assaults in Turkey itself have to be sent forward to maintain our forward defence.”
“Very well,” says Inönü, rising to his feet. All the others hastily stand. “Bayar and I have heard enough, I think. We have all spent much time considering these issues and I appreciate the frank views you have all expressed, and the useful contributions we have received from some of Turkey’s top strategic commentators. It is time for me and the Prime Minister to discuss this in private. I will inform you of my decision in later this evening.”
The meeting breaks up. The Cabinet members adjourn to a waiting room for coffee and baklava. Inönü and Bayar retire to the Presidential sitting room.
Ismet Inönü (b. 1884) and Mahmut Celâl Bayar (b. 1883). President and PrimeMinister of Turkey, respectively. Picture taken at the War Cabinet meeting on 15 May 1940. The portrait of the Father of the Nation, Mustapha Kemal Atatürk, looks down over them. His presence can still be felt, a year after his death.
As the door closes and the two men are alone, Inönü sits down, wincing very slightly from the shoulder wound he received last year during the assassination attempt at the Opera House in Sarajevo – which cost the life of his illegitimate nephew and newly adopted son, Volkan ‘Vinnie’ Inönü (formerly Mancini).
“So Bayar, I know we have not always seen eye to eye on many issues and I know we will never be close friends, but I respect your dedication to Glorious Turkey and appreciated your measured contribution to the Cabinet debate this afternoon. These decisions need to be taken in cold blood, with objectivity and considering as many of the facts as we have available. We have always been prepared to take risks when the reward seems worth it, but the risks must be educated. In this case, the fate of the nation literally rests on this decision. So tell me, what do you think?”
Bayar has clearly already thought his answer through well in advance. “Mr President, thank you for your words and your frankness. I too hope we can work together productively, professionally and in the interests of the Motherland and the Union we have built.” Bayar, as a ‘forward defender’, is a strong Unionist – more so than Inönü, who has a more isolationist bent and would gladly sacrifice the whole Union in order to preserve Turkey itself, if it came to such a stark choice.
“I would like to preserve as much of the Union as we can – for the resources, manpower and defensive buffer it provides Mother Turkey. Between them, Beograd, Sofiya and Athens provide much of what has made the new Greater Turkey great. Just as the Iranian oilfields provide us with an enormous resource and trading leverage. Without our new dominions, we would still be the third-rate minor power we were just four years ago. It is the visionary leadership of you and our great President Atatürk we have to thank for that. We should not give all that up without a fight – so long as we have a decent chance of winning it.”
“My view is we should make sure we do everything we can to have the option in place for an early intervention. I’m sure the Soviets will answer the call to arms – after which we would play second fiddle, albeit a strong one. I would definitely prefer it if the Soviets have at least executed their Baltic annexation, even if the forces there are still not yet forward deployed to the German border. At least we know they will be coming. My fear is if we wait too long, the moment will be past: France may have been irretrievably weakened by then and our opportunity lost. I’d even consider going before the Soviets take the Baltics, as a last resort, so much do I believe in this fleeting opportunity we may be presented with. Just think where we would be starting now compared to having the full Axis force, victorious in the West, poised along our border in a year or two, bolstered by occupied territories and a wartime economy, and able to determine the time and place of their attack.”
“To conclude,” says Bayar, “I believe we should order the General Staff to immediately draw up plans for the establishment of the Yeniçeri Line and start deploying the forces straight away. While we should retain some rear defences, to establish a fall-back defence and guard against surprise naval attacks, we must ensure the line can hold out against at least heavy probing attack by the Axis – which could be mainly Italian and Hungarian troops in our sector at first, with some Germans. If we take the plunge, then all speed along the Path to Glory - in the hope Romania and the Soviets can carry the main offensive in the east while we hold the line in Serbia and the Med. If the moment passes, we can always return to our rearward defence – though I’d still like the idea of defending forward to start with, if our planners think we can handle it by the time the Nazi hammer falls in a year or two.”
“Thank you, Bayar, that is wise counsel,” says Inönü thoughtfully. “I am perhaps a little more conservative than you when it comes to waiting for the Soviets to take the Baltics. We will see, but if the French are failing and the Baltics still not annexed, I’d be doubtful about the wisdom of pinning our hopes on a sinking Western star. The next few weeks will tell us much on that score."
“If we do commit to war early, I will be seeking a decent number of Soviet expeditionary forces to bolster our numbers in the Balkans, so we can perhaps swing over to the offensive earlier than we might otherwise, given we would be committing to offensive action 2-3 years before we had otherwise been planning to. We should be able to supply and support a reasonably large number of expeditionary units if they are offered."
“I will also ask the Staff to draw up plans for a surprise naval assault on the Dodecanese Islands and Rhodes, though we would not be able to sustain both at once. We may not play that card, but should be ready to do so if necessary. In the meantime, we’ll send the fleet on a patrol past both locations to see what the Italians have there. But I do agree: let’s at least do what we can to have the interventionist option on the table as soon as we can, see what happens in the Baltics and France, and then take it from there. Come, let us advise our colleagues of my decision.”
Inönü and Bayar do so. Turkey will prepare to intervene but no final decision will be taken until the forward defences are in place, and then the situations in the West and the Baltics will be monitored. If both are deemed propitious and the timing is right an intervention will be made. If not, then depending on Inönü’s personal assessment and decision, the two risks will be judged: the risk of intervening against that of waiting for Germany to come calling later.
The military planners are sent away to work out detailed dispositions for the occupation of the Yeniçeri Line, the preservation of the two established fortified lines in depth, necessary measures to guard against Italian naval landings in the rear and a surprise assault on those Italian bases insultingly close to the Turkish mainland (and which justly belong to Turkey in any case). Especially given one of them (Rhodes/Rodi) was used for the notorious “Foundation Day” float-plane attack on the Council of Premiers in January last year. That would be a sweet revenge, if it can be done. Luca Brasi would enjoy conducting a few ‘contact counselling’ sessions there. Ögel and Kaya are also given some contingency orders for the settling of some other scores, which still remain unsettled from the days of the Great Conspiracy and the undercover Mafia War of 1939.
Some morale-building Kemalist propaganda is reissued to help warm up the masses, depicting previous struggles and the idealist onwards march of the secular, modern Turkey promoted by Atatürk. If the people are going to be asked to willingly put their head in the Axis bear-trap, they will need some persuading!
Coming Up: Time for military planning and mass redeployments. Developments in the West (Belgium and France) and the Baltic States will be keenly followed. The stage will be set for a bold Turkish intervention in the Second Great War. But will Inönü pull the trigger, especially if the situation looks risky? Only time will tell.
Ankara, 15 May 1940. Unknown to the general population, who are just getting used to a period of peace, great decisions are being taken behind closed doors.
15 May 40 - Ankara
The flags of Turkey and the Union of Glorious National Republics.
President Ismet Inönü calls the most crucial Cabinet meeting of his presidency so far to order. At stake is a decision about whether to take the war to the Axis early or to hold back, adhering to the course of action that has been Turkish policy for the last three years: to keep war away for as long as possible, let the West fend for itself, withstand an expected Axis onslaught behind carefully prepared defences, then after 2-3 years of grinding warfare alongside the Soviets, hope to take the offensive and defeat the Fascists.
But the securing of the Comintern alliance, some initial promising resistance from Belgium and France in the West and advice from the Foreign Ministry that the Comintern would support a Turkish declaration of war has got important people thinking. What a few weeks ago was just a marginal ‘what if’ is now being treated very seriously, given how thin the Axis eastern defences are now looking. It could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity - for glorious victory. Or hubris before a humiliating defeat.
Europe on 15 May 1940.
Inönü begins: “You all know why we are gathered today. And you have all read the briefing material for this meeting. We will quickly recap the key points, you may put your views and then, in what has become our traditional Cabinet process, myself and the Prime Minister will retire to discuss the decision, which I will make as President of Turkey and Milli Şef of the Union of Glorious National Republics. Let us begin with a short report from Foreign Minister Aras.”
Dr. Tewfik Rüştü Aras (b. 1883). Foreign Minister of Turkey since March 1937. Noted pro-Comintern diplomat, brought in deliberately to draw Turkey towards that bloc – mission accomplished!
Aras gets straight into his subject. “My staff have double checked the letter of the Nazi-Soviet agreements we are aware of and Intelligence Head Ögel’s analysts agree: if we declare war on the Germans, the rest of the Axis will almost certainly declare war on us. We are sure Germany will require its allies to retaliate against us. And we are sure they will answer that call, not from a feeling of mutual defensive obligation as the Allies would, but more out of a sense of bravado and misplaced feelings of destiny.”
Aras pauses for a sip of water, then continues. “Those declarations of war on us would call our own Comintern Pact into play, releasing the Soviets from any remaining non-aggression pact restrictions and giving them convenient casus belli against the Germans and the rest of the Axis. Ögel?”
Ögel takes his cue, as arranged. “Yes, our analysis is that this will occur. We believe Stalin will welcome the opportunity to take an early crack at the Germans while their back is so invitingly turned. They would never get a better chance. Hitler will have to at least transfer some considerable defensive strength to the east to deal with the new threat. So long as the French and their Allies are still in the fight and not on the brink of collapse, this splitting of forces by the Germans should either cripple their western campaign, or if they try to persist with it, they will risk losing significant territory to our Soviet allies – first occupied Poland, then even eastern Germany – perhaps Berlin itself – would be under threat.”
Şükrü Âli Ögel, (b. 1886). Head of Turkish Intelligence, the Milli EmniyetHizmeti (MAH) (National Security Service). Has a very high reputation in Cabinet due to his good work in the short ‘police action’ in Romania and seen as a ‘straight shooter’ (in all senses of the word). Has a (fictional ATL) dark, hidden past.
“Furthermore,” Ögel continues, “this would put us and the Soviets on a full war economy footing, which the Germans already enjoy. If we wait for a year or two and the Germans beat the French in the short term, they will not only greatly expand their IC and resources, but will not have to worry about a Western land front and can devote their entire economy for preparing to invade us and the Soviets. No matter what we and the Soviets can produce, the Axis is likely to produce more over the same period and then be able to throw almost all of it east.”
Inönü now focuses discussion further: “Gentlemen, these are powerful points. But before we move into the military pros and cons, please point out the risks of an early declaration of war on the Germans and their henchmen.”
“Certainly,” nods Aras. “As I mentioned at the start, a consequence of an active declaration of war by us is the likelihood of bringing the whole Axis into the war at once. The Japanese would attack our allies in the east. Not a fatal problem for them or us, perhaps, but a serious consideration nonetheless. This would also be a distraction for the Allies, but that may not be an entirely bad thing either. We don’t want them collapsing in the West, but then we don’t want them doing too well too quickly, either!"
"Also, it would bring Italy into the war immediately, though our intelligence indicates they would be likely to stab the French in the back soon in any case. As has been argued previously, a declaration now would divide the Italians' efforts three ways – France, the east and Africa (Libya and Ethiopia). This may actually be of net assistance to the French and their chances of survival. Of course, the Hungarian Axis stooges would also be brought into the conflict, but they represent both threat and opportunity. Our military advisers will talk more about that shortly.”
“Thank you, Aras,” says Inönü. “Örlungat, what do the Armed Forces advise?”
Ali Örlungat, (D.O.B. unknown). Chief of Staff and Chief of the Air Force. [Ed. the only picture and reference I can find of his existence, including trying on the Turkish 'Vikipedia', is in HoI! So this will have to do.]
CoS Örlungat replies very carefully. “There are of course pros and cons to an early war declaration. It is a bold course, carrying greater potential benefits than waiting, but also some significant risks. How severe the risks are will depend on some variables that we can monitor, but are basically out of our hands. Let us work through them now.”
“First, there is the variable of timing. If we strike too early, we run the risk of the Germans being able to withdraw relatively unscathed front-line units from the war in France and sending them east instead. It would take them some time, but with strategic movement and interior lines, they could make their presence felt before our Soviet allies have made significant inroads. Especially as we cannot direct them and must rely on their initiative to wage an aggressive war while time is on our side. If we wait too long, then France may be doomed and we risk being only a minor inconvenience to the Germans while they complete their conquest of France then face us with their main force.
Field Marshal Mehmet Nuri Yamut (b. 1890). Chief of the Turkish Army.
Army Chief Yamut takes up the discussion: “It would take our Army at least a couple of weeks to readjust to the proposed forward defensive line in former Yugoslavia. Before which we should avoid any declaration. Let’s say by the end of the month, we should be in position and able to assess how things are going in the West. If things start looking dangerous there, it could be a line ball decision as to whether there is still time to save the French, or we revert to our original defence in depth strategy and wait for the wolf to come to us. But we would hope to hit the Hungarians hard through our Romanian and Soviet allies - possibly even knocking them out of the war.”
Aras chimes in again at this point: “Remember, we are relying on the Soviets being ready to strike, and they still have considerable forces aligned against the Baltic States. We believe they will seek to pressure them into joining the Soviet Union under threat of conquest. If we declare war before they have completed that plan, all that territory and the forces deployed there will not be available for an attack on the Germans. And Stalin may not be pleased at this interference in his grander plans. We believe the Baltic annexation is imminent, but can’t be sure of when they will move, though we anticipate around mid-June.”
“Can’t we just ask them to do it now?” says Örlungat, with some exasperation.
“I’m afraid not,” replies Aras. “First we’re not meant to know they are planning this little exercise. And second, the iron laws of international diplomacy forbid it. We will just have to await events – and it could be a very suspenseful wait!” [Ed. In other words, there is no in-game mechanism for requesting an AI-run country to trigger such an event. And – tempting though it might be – my ‘no-tag’ pledge applies.]
The Baltic States: three loose ends in dire need of being tied off. Hurry up, Uncle Joe!
“Very well,” summarises Örlungat. “That is the broad equation. We don’t believe we should risk an early declaration before the following conditions are met: first, our forces have redeployed fully to the new ‘Yeniçeri Line’, so they are able to start digging in as soon as any declaration of war is made. Second, the Soviets have annexed the Baltics and most of their forces are available to join the fight, even if they are not all in the border area yet. They will get there quicker than the Germans can move troops back from France. At that point, the third condition applies: the French must still be credibly in the fight and we assess that an intervention in the east has a better than even chance of keeping them in the fight, thus fatally (we hope) splitting the German forces on two fronts. The rest – Hungary, Romania, possibly Finland; a Japanese attack in the Far East – they are all peripheral issues. Operational questions, not decisive strategic issues, as far as we are concerned in Turkey. We can plan and talk about those later.”
Inönü now speaks up in his capacity as Armament Minister (essentially Defence or War Minister and Economic/Finance Minister). “As has been alluded to, the great advantage to us in an early war is the increased manpower and production that will ensue. In part for Turkey, but more importantly for our Soviet allies, on whom we must rely for the great bulk of the heavy fighting against the Fascist juggernaut. Rather than waiting for a German hammer blow at the time and place of their choosing, there is the prospect of some early gains, a hampered German response, and more time for the great gears of Soviet industry and their vast population to be fully mobilised. And with the Glorious Union and Romania to assist them, they can fight over a relatively limited front with a preponderance of numbers that will only increase as time goes on. That may be the single greatest advantage of this course of action, or at least equal to the advantage of having our main enemy fight a serious two-front war.”
Prime Minister Bayar has observed carefully but said nothing yet. He now makes his first statement of the debate. “You all know I generally favour the forward-defence approach, preserving as much of our Balkan dominions as we can and taking the fight to the scourge of the world, the egregious and malign Herr Hitler. I am also willing to entertain an actual early intervention in the war if we can be sure our Soviet friends will come to the party. But I am not reckless in these views. We must fully consider the most dangerous risks. We have heard of some of them, and ways to prevent a rash decision by waiting until the decisive point and not finally committing until we and the Soviets are both ready and we are reasonably sure the French can still survive. But what else is there? What if we take the plunge but find we have underestimated the capacity of the Germans? What else could go wrong? Who will speak to these issues? Fear not, this table is one where all can speak honestly. The decision will rest with our President alone. He wants to hear all views.”
Şükrü Kaya, (b. 1883). Minister of the Interior (Security). He was born in the Dodecanese when they were still part of the Ottoman Empire. He no doubt hankers to see the islands returned to their rightful ownership. [Has a (real) dark past we won’t go into on this forum.]
“Very well,” replies Kaya. The Security (Interior) Minister is a natural pessimist and sceptic – ideally suited to the role of Devil’s Advocate. Indeed, many believe him to be the Devil himself, not his mere legal representative!
“We’ve talked about it before. Our army could become badly exposed if deployed forward. We have no credible air cover available, no forward air defences will be there, no fortifications. Sure, we can fall back to the two main defensive lines if necessary, but may be too weakened to hold them by then. We may need to surrender Greece without a real fight, sacrificing all our investment there and the opportunity to grind down the Axis against set defences, just to be able to defend the main Calistar Line. And we even risk undermining our defence there, on which the fate of the entire Motherland rests. If the Axis breaks through there, all is lost. You will want to be very sure about the calculation: you may end up destroying the nation for a mere mirage of glory.”
Admiral Mehmet Ali Üngen [Ülgen], (b. 1887). Chief of the Turkish Navy.
Navy Chief Mehmet Ali Üngen [real spelling Ülgen] also feels obliged to offer some cautionary advice. “Remember too, our Navy is small and primitive. The Italians have a powerful fleet and a few bases very near the Turkish coast, in the Dodecanese Islands and Rhodes (Rodi). We cannot fully rely on Allied naval superiority to protect our long maritime flank on the Mediterranean. If we push too far forward and are heavily engaged and then there is a major naval landing by the Italians in our rear, all could be lost, especially if most of the reserves earmarked for countering such assaults in Turkey itself have to be sent forward to maintain our forward defence.”
“Very well,” says Inönü, rising to his feet. All the others hastily stand. “Bayar and I have heard enough, I think. We have all spent much time considering these issues and I appreciate the frank views you have all expressed, and the useful contributions we have received from some of Turkey’s top strategic commentators. It is time for me and the Prime Minister to discuss this in private. I will inform you of my decision in later this evening.”
The meeting breaks up. The Cabinet members adjourn to a waiting room for coffee and baklava. Inönü and Bayar retire to the Presidential sitting room.
Ismet Inönü (b. 1884) and Mahmut Celâl Bayar (b. 1883). President and PrimeMinister of Turkey, respectively. Picture taken at the War Cabinet meeting on 15 May 1940. The portrait of the Father of the Nation, Mustapha Kemal Atatürk, looks down over them. His presence can still be felt, a year after his death.
As the door closes and the two men are alone, Inönü sits down, wincing very slightly from the shoulder wound he received last year during the assassination attempt at the Opera House in Sarajevo – which cost the life of his illegitimate nephew and newly adopted son, Volkan ‘Vinnie’ Inönü (formerly Mancini).
“So Bayar, I know we have not always seen eye to eye on many issues and I know we will never be close friends, but I respect your dedication to Glorious Turkey and appreciated your measured contribution to the Cabinet debate this afternoon. These decisions need to be taken in cold blood, with objectivity and considering as many of the facts as we have available. We have always been prepared to take risks when the reward seems worth it, but the risks must be educated. In this case, the fate of the nation literally rests on this decision. So tell me, what do you think?”
Bayar has clearly already thought his answer through well in advance. “Mr President, thank you for your words and your frankness. I too hope we can work together productively, professionally and in the interests of the Motherland and the Union we have built.” Bayar, as a ‘forward defender’, is a strong Unionist – more so than Inönü, who has a more isolationist bent and would gladly sacrifice the whole Union in order to preserve Turkey itself, if it came to such a stark choice.
“I would like to preserve as much of the Union as we can – for the resources, manpower and defensive buffer it provides Mother Turkey. Between them, Beograd, Sofiya and Athens provide much of what has made the new Greater Turkey great. Just as the Iranian oilfields provide us with an enormous resource and trading leverage. Without our new dominions, we would still be the third-rate minor power we were just four years ago. It is the visionary leadership of you and our great President Atatürk we have to thank for that. We should not give all that up without a fight – so long as we have a decent chance of winning it.”
“My view is we should make sure we do everything we can to have the option in place for an early intervention. I’m sure the Soviets will answer the call to arms – after which we would play second fiddle, albeit a strong one. I would definitely prefer it if the Soviets have at least executed their Baltic annexation, even if the forces there are still not yet forward deployed to the German border. At least we know they will be coming. My fear is if we wait too long, the moment will be past: France may have been irretrievably weakened by then and our opportunity lost. I’d even consider going before the Soviets take the Baltics, as a last resort, so much do I believe in this fleeting opportunity we may be presented with. Just think where we would be starting now compared to having the full Axis force, victorious in the West, poised along our border in a year or two, bolstered by occupied territories and a wartime economy, and able to determine the time and place of their attack.”
“To conclude,” says Bayar, “I believe we should order the General Staff to immediately draw up plans for the establishment of the Yeniçeri Line and start deploying the forces straight away. While we should retain some rear defences, to establish a fall-back defence and guard against surprise naval attacks, we must ensure the line can hold out against at least heavy probing attack by the Axis – which could be mainly Italian and Hungarian troops in our sector at first, with some Germans. If we take the plunge, then all speed along the Path to Glory - in the hope Romania and the Soviets can carry the main offensive in the east while we hold the line in Serbia and the Med. If the moment passes, we can always return to our rearward defence – though I’d still like the idea of defending forward to start with, if our planners think we can handle it by the time the Nazi hammer falls in a year or two.”
“Thank you, Bayar, that is wise counsel,” says Inönü thoughtfully. “I am perhaps a little more conservative than you when it comes to waiting for the Soviets to take the Baltics. We will see, but if the French are failing and the Baltics still not annexed, I’d be doubtful about the wisdom of pinning our hopes on a sinking Western star. The next few weeks will tell us much on that score."
“If we do commit to war early, I will be seeking a decent number of Soviet expeditionary forces to bolster our numbers in the Balkans, so we can perhaps swing over to the offensive earlier than we might otherwise, given we would be committing to offensive action 2-3 years before we had otherwise been planning to. We should be able to supply and support a reasonably large number of expeditionary units if they are offered."
“I will also ask the Staff to draw up plans for a surprise naval assault on the Dodecanese Islands and Rhodes, though we would not be able to sustain both at once. We may not play that card, but should be ready to do so if necessary. In the meantime, we’ll send the fleet on a patrol past both locations to see what the Italians have there. But I do agree: let’s at least do what we can to have the interventionist option on the table as soon as we can, see what happens in the Baltics and France, and then take it from there. Come, let us advise our colleagues of my decision.”
Inönü and Bayar do so. Turkey will prepare to intervene but no final decision will be taken until the forward defences are in place, and then the situations in the West and the Baltics will be monitored. If both are deemed propitious and the timing is right an intervention will be made. If not, then depending on Inönü’s personal assessment and decision, the two risks will be judged: the risk of intervening against that of waiting for Germany to come calling later.
The military planners are sent away to work out detailed dispositions for the occupation of the Yeniçeri Line, the preservation of the two established fortified lines in depth, necessary measures to guard against Italian naval landings in the rear and a surprise assault on those Italian bases insultingly close to the Turkish mainland (and which justly belong to Turkey in any case). Especially given one of them (Rhodes/Rodi) was used for the notorious “Foundation Day” float-plane attack on the Council of Premiers in January last year. That would be a sweet revenge, if it can be done. Luca Brasi would enjoy conducting a few ‘contact counselling’ sessions there. Ögel and Kaya are also given some contingency orders for the settling of some other scores, which still remain unsettled from the days of the Great Conspiracy and the undercover Mafia War of 1939.
Some morale-building Kemalist propaganda is reissued to help warm up the masses, depicting previous struggles and the idealist onwards march of the secular, modern Turkey promoted by Atatürk. If the people are going to be asked to willingly put their head in the Axis bear-trap, they will need some persuading!
Coming Up: Time for military planning and mass redeployments. Developments in the West (Belgium and France) and the Baltic States will be keenly followed. The stage will be set for a bold Turkish intervention in the Second Great War. But will Inönü pull the trigger, especially if the situation looks risky? Only time will tell.
Last edited:
- 1
Engaging update there my friend, lots to consider. Btw, Russian Roulette came to mind.
- 1
I can't recall, but it may be that the Baltic annexation requires France to fall first? Perhaps this is worth checking in the event files before we go too far forward in the final decision-making process...
- 1