L'Empereur est mort: A French AAR

[Mat Man]

I'm really anticipating the progress report on the other Great Powers. Have the Brits and the Russians consolidated their colonial possessions? How well are the newly westernized Japanese and Qing Empires doing on the world stage? Is the North German Federation even still considered a Great Power? But what I'm anticipating most is an update on Austria-Hungary(-Croatia). Will further Augsleich Renegotiations, stemming from the Austro-Hungarian Compromise, grant further autonomy to more Kingdoms? Will Hungary demand the return of their jurisdiction over the Kingdom of Croatia and the Principality of Nitra-Carpathia? Whatever the answers are, I can't wait to see them.

 

[Specialist290]

Count me as another one looking forward to seeing the overall state of the world

The Brazilian adventure offers a nice little sideshow to distract from the political and social ennui at home, but it sounds like (much as in real life) the Dreyfus Affair is set to rock the very foundations of the establishment once the spotlight turns back to France itself.

 

[RossN]

The world in 1896.
​

Appendix - The Great Powers in 1896

Edme-Armand-Gaston, duc d'Audiffret-Pasquier, President of the French Republic.​

1. The French Republic

Head of State: President Gaston Audiffret-Pasquier
Head of Government: Gabriel Paul Othenin de Cléron, comte d'Haussonville
Population (including colonies & overseas departments): 119.23 million
Capital: Paris

[France will receive her overview in a separate post.]

Queen Victoria of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Ireland.​

2. The United Kingdom of Great Britain & Ireland

Head of State: Queen Victoria
Head of Government: Archibald Philip Primrose, 5th Earl of Rosebery
Population (including colonies & dominions): 199.19 million
Capital: London

The brief and unlucky Labour government that had ruled Britain collapsed in 1894 and in the ensuing election the Liberals swept to power in a landslide on a pro-business, pro-empire platform. Lord Rosebery is focused on colonial problems, rebuilding and modernising the royal navy and seeking better relations with some of Britain's European neighbours.

Britain ran France a close second in the Scramble for Africa during the second half of the 1880s. While that particular rivalry has waned with most of the continent either blue or pink on the map the British military presence south of the Sahara is very strong. A conflict involving one or more of the Boer republics is a constant possibility.

Domestically, even with the shift in government British politics continue to revolve around the Irish Question. Though demands for outright Home Rule have waned somewhat as the Liberal tide engulfed even Ireland, there is a strong sense of grievance on the Irish side. Out of a total population of 46.27 million in the British Isles as a whole some 11.46 million live in Ireland. Despite making up nearly a quarter of the population of the British Isles, Ireland is severely underrepresented in terms of parliamentary seats, being allocated just 101 out of a total of 670. The countervailing view, held in Great Britain is that as Ireland is somewhat poorer than England (though not, perhaps, than Scotland or Wales) her representation should be kept according to her budget. The real fear of course is that granting Ireland another sixty odd seats would drastically tilt the balance in the House of Commons, a worry especially if the Irish begin to turn towards nationalism once more [1].

Relations with France:

Surprisingly tranquil. The British certainly see France as a trading and colonial rival and there is considerable disquiet over the French annexation of Rhineland and her close alliance with Russia. The latter has recently led Britain to sign an alliance with Japan. However there is very little appetite for war given the vast borders France and Britain share in Africa.

The Royal Navy, having bitter experience from engaging with their French counterparts is undergoing a sustained modernisation and rebuilding, once again increasing in scale under Lord Rosebery's government. Thus far it remains far enough behind the French Navy that there has been little response from Paris, still analysing their own lessons from fighting the Japanese. However a naval arms race is a distinct possibility.

More than any other power the British are paying close attention to the tension of French internal politics.

James Baird Weaver, President of the United States of America.​

3. The United States of America

Head of State: President James Baird Weaver
Head of Government: President James Baird Weaver
Population (including territories): 65.33 million
Capital: Washington D.C.

The United States has grown enormously over the past three decades as the scars from the American Civil War fade. The population has more than doubled in size surpassing every nation in Europe save Russia, thanks largely to the constant influx of immigrants. Most come from Europe but some are from Latin America, the Near East or (especially in California) China. Since the late 1880s the United States has overtaken France and Britain in overall industrial production, though their extensive colonial empires make the latter two powers larger overall producers of raw materials.

Much like Britain America has drifted into a three party system, with the conservative Democrats now largely restricted to the South as the East Coast is divided between the Socialists and the Republicans and the mid western states swinging between all three. Weaver's unexpected election in 1892 was won by a coalition of poor rural voters hungry for agrarian reform and urban industrial workers, many of them immigrants or the children of immigrants and representing a huge, swiftly growing voting bloc. What Weaver could not achieve on his plurality of the vote was to carry Congress for the Socialists, limiting the president's powers of reform.

When it comes to foreign policy American interests lie chiefly in Hawaii (recently annexed) and Cuba where sympathy for the anti-Spanish element has now dragged the country into a n open war with Spain.

Relations with France:

Despite the tensions over French interaction with Brazil and some irritation at French protectionism relations between the 'sister republics' ('les républiques soeurs') are generally excellent on a diplomatic and even personal level [2]. The hundredth anniversary of the United States Declaration of Independence was celebrated by the newly republican French government in 1876 and the Americans returned the favour by toasting the anniversary of the storming of the Bastille in 1889. Though there is no formal alliance between the two powers the Americans see France as a counterweight to the British Empire.

Emperor Meiji of Japan.​

4. The Empire of Japan

Head of State: Emperor Meiji
Head of Government: Prince Itō Hirobumi
Population (including territories): 42.53 million
Capital: Tokyo

Despite her defeat by France Japan is still very much a power on the rise, as shown by her recent wooing by Britain. Prince Itō Hirobumi, still the prime minister, is a committed Anglophile and close relations between the two island empires are attributed to his canny statesmanship. Japan is a far greater industrial power than China; despite her far smaller population she has more than twice as many factory craftsmen and clerks than her giant rival and lags behind only the United States, Britain and France in heavy production.

Short of a renewed war with France, or conflict with Spain or Russia Japanese ambitions are for the moment confined to administering Korea. Having defeated the Chinese in the 1880s the Japanese are currently in a strong position, in most respects the dominant power in the Far East. Her army, though smaller than the vast forces available to the Qing is by any standards large, excellently trained and equipped. The Imperial Japanese Navy is still recovering from the conflict with France, but a return to strength is not just possible but likely.

Relations with France:

Very poor as might be expected, though perhaps with a certain grudging respect. However Japan and France have very few conflicting interests. Even the Caroline Islands were essentially a token of honour rather than a significant prize. Currently a second Franco-Japanese war is unlikely.

Emperor & King Franz Joseph I of Austria-Hungary-Croatia.​

5. Austria-Hungary-Croatia (the Triple Monarchy)

Head of State: Emperor and King Franz Joseph
Head of Government: Herr Ernest von Koerber (Austria), Baron Dezső Bánffy de Losonc (Hungary), Josip Frank (Croatia)
Population (including Austria, Hungary and Croatia): 49.98 million
Capital: Vienna (Austria and Imperial), Budapest (Hungary) and Zagreb (Croatia)

The Hapsburg empire is either an example of an essentially 18th century empire disintegrating in the face of rising nationalism or a remarkably resilient system that has given itself a new lease of life via federalization. The ascension of Croatia (technically the Kingdom of Croatia-Slavonia) to the same rank as Hungary provoked storms of protest in both Vienna and Budapest, but it stymied any talk of rebellion. The Croatians had powerful sympathisers in the empire, including the late Crown Prince Rudolf and Archduke Franz Ferdinand who would soon become heir presumptive to the Triple Monarchy.

Croatia, as an autonomous state owes her existence to the gradual weakening of Hungary, which is failing to keep up with Austria in industry. The recent war with the North German Confederation saw the Hapsburg armies achieve remarkable success, further strengthening the hand of the Croatians whose political leaders had been far keener on fighting than the Hungarians. This has gone down very poorly in Budapest but the simple fact is the Hungarians have a very weak hand, especially with half of Germany looking to Vienna for leadership. The thought of Austria trying to form a Großdeutschland where the Magyars are simply a small and insignificant minority provokes almost as many fears in Budapest as it does in Berlin or Paris.

Despite the prestige of the Emperor Franz Joseph and the size of his dominions estimates of the true strength of the Triple Monarchy are more varied. Her army is of high quality, her navy negligible and her industry somewhat lagging behind that of the United States, Britain, France and Japan.

Relations with France:

Awful, exceeded only by the hostility between France and Japan. The two powers remain bitter rivals and conduct Great Power diplomacy - certainly when it comes to Europe - largely as a way of counterbalancing each other.

Emperor Nicholas II of Russia.​

6. The Russian Empire

Head of State: Emperor Nicholas II
Head of Government: Ivan Nikolayevich Durnovo
Population (including territories & the Grand Duchy of Finland): 90.02 million
Capital: Saint Petersburg

Russia remains much as she was, though her shift to (limited) parliamentary monarchy has left her slightly more liberal and open to the world. The Romanov empire has generally been on the losing side of international events in recent decades, though defeating the Ottomans and annexing Ostpreußen has restored much lost prestige. In industrial terms the Russians are behind every other great power save China.

Currently Russia is busy absorbing her newly acquired territories and tends to follow the lead of Paris in many international concerns.

Relations with France:

Close allies. The Franco-Russian alliance has been explored previously and remains unchanged and strong in 1896.

The Guangxu Emperor of the Qing Dynasty.
​

7. The Qing Empire

Head of State: Guangxu Emperor
Head of Government: Kang Youwei
Population (including territories): 350.81 million
Capital: Peking

In the early 1860s the other Great Powers anxiously watched as China lurched towards industrialisation and reform that seemed to mark her as the future. Three decades later and the reality has not matched the fears outside China or the hopes within.

Undoubtedly China is an industrial power, but she is the weakest of all the Great Powers on that score, behind even a comparative minnow like Italy. She has fewer craftsmen than any other major power and no skilled craftsmen (clerks.) The sheer size of the country partially disguises this weakness and China is a major exporter of raw materials - the single biggest supplier in many areas. China's very low literacy rate compounds her problems, preventing her from catching up with her rivals.

Another serious problem lies in the demographics of the Qing Empire. Though still by far the largest state in the world in terms of population China is the only major power to have shrunk over the past three decades. Many of course have emigrated to the Americas still further reducing the talent pool of China's best and brightest, but natural disasters, recurrent low level rebellion and a stagnating birth rate have played their part.

Nominally a semi-constitutional monarchy with an elected parliament (the Guómín Dàhuì or National Assembly) much power still resides in the hands of Empress Dowager Cixi who has fought bitterly against the reform minded emperor. Kang Youwei, the Chinese prime minister is still committed to reform at least on a technological and and economic level. The greatest asset remaining to the Qing remains their army, still by the far the largest in the world and a formidable body to any who would think to intrude on China's overall weakness.

Relations with France:

By no means close or deep but reasonably good. France and China are minor diplomatic rivals in Indochina where they are dueling for influence in Cambodia (currently in the Chinese sphere). Neither side is interested in fighting however. One area of potential concern is that China is allied to France's foe Austria-Hungary-Croatia, her only friend among the great powers.

King Alfonso of Italy.​

8. The Kingdom of Italy

Head of State: King Alfonso
Head of Government: Antonio Starabba, Marquess of Rudinì
Population (including territories): 18.03 million
Capital: Naples

Italy has the crushing misfortune that several of her finest provinces are under foreign (Austrian) control and that her natural ally (France) has also annexed some of her territory and that three of Italy's four biggest cities lie outside the borders of the kingom. With Rome, Milan and Venice under her control Italy could be a substantial force to reckon with despite her relatively low population. As it is, Italy is relatively industrialised - proportionally more than the Triple Monarchy if not in real terms due to her much smaller size. Unfortunately Italy unified to late to take part in the Scramble for Africa; any move into North Africa would require an understanding with the French government that is unlikely to come.

If Italy does has an advantage of sorts it is that her equal isolation from both France and the Triple Monarchy has kept her out of any alliances and thus reduced to a pawn in the great game. Out of all the Great Powers Italy could perhaps be described as an honest broker - the United States also lacks Great Power allies but her unashamed Francophilia prevents such a label being applied to her.

Current Italian concerns are focused on Rome. There is much public sentiment in favour of annexing the Papal States but there is still some question as to how the French and Hapsburgs would react. Even the most fervent Italian ministers wish simply to deprive the pontiff of temporal power over Italy's largest and most iconic city but anything save the most bloodless and fair of annexations could reflect disastorously abroad.

Relations with France:

Surprisingly stable despite the legacy of Savoy. Much of this is down to pragmatism; Italy is too weak to challenge France and France still sees Italy as a counterweight to the Hapsburgs. An actual alliance is highly unlikely however.


Footnotes:

[1] Historically some British politicians complained Ireland was overrepresented in the late 19th century and on one level they perhaps had a point. However in this timeline the demographics are very different. The population of England, Scotland and Wales is 34.81 million which fits very closely to the figure in OTL - the 1891 census had a population of 33.03 million. Ireland on the other is nearly three times as populous as she was in 'our' 1891 (4.7 million). The obvious difference is that this Ireland avoided the Great Famine, or at least the worst effects of it and seems to have been more heavily industrialised - though not to the extent of England as I already mentioned.

[2] My relations with the United States really are very good in game terms; at about 178, the best opinion anyone has on me who isn't an ally and/or in my sphere of influence. I'll have to explore this transatlantic fondness this more in a future update.

 

[RossN]

This is part one of a two stage appendix update. Part two will focus on France, especially on Metropolitan France and look at demographics, industry, military and so on.

~~~~~

loup99: Actually Spain is also more right wing, being an Absolute Monarchy but overall the trend is towards a slightly more left wing dynamic yes - Russia and China are both semi-parliametry monarchies ('Prussian Constitutionalism' in game terms.) That is a very good point about the continuing importance of Brazil though, especially because French Guiana has a somewhat higher population than in the 'real' 1890s (though I'll cover French demographics as part of my next update.)

stylan: Well, as soon as I've finished these state of the world posts I'll return to Dreyfus.

Mat Man: I hope this rather modest report at least answers some of your questions, though I may have a more indepth look at the Triple Monachy in the future. This time I wanted to set the global stage.

Specialist290: Sideshow might be a little unfair - arguably France has far more to be concerned about in events in Brazil than anything short of a war with a sister Great Power - but yes the Dreyfus Affair is bubbling away in the background.

 

[stnylan]

Interesting. Any chance of a quick survey of the world as well? Or a round-up of the notable not quite Great Powers?

 

[Nikolai]

Quite interesting overview.

 

[loup99]

Thank you for the review, it does give a lot of insight in the developments around the world and I like the details on population. My conclusion is that the other powers do not seem to be in a position to be able to threaten your power for now, unless they were to attack simultaneously from multiple fronts or France would be perceived as enough of a threat for a reshuffle in the alliances to happen.

Intriguing that Austria-Hungary-Croatia has decided on pursuing a Chinese friendship, but I guess it is more an alliance of circumstances to combat increasing French influence more than anything else.

I'm curious though, is Greece still communist? Has the ideology spread to any other countries?

 

[Mat Man]

Now that I have a view of the world map, I'm already imagining the multitude of scenarios that can play out in the future. Will further partitions of the (not even Great Power worthy) North German Federation occur? With China being unaligned and recognized as a possible massive threat, will the Great Powers unify to kick in their teeth with a Boxer Rebellion-squashing king of event? Who will win over control over the remaining independent tribes of the Congo, the Portuguese, the British, or the French? Alas, I can only wait for more.

 

[guillec87]

so, you have won the scramble for Africa, but British still have a massive army of Indian Sepoy and the US being the biggest Industrial power... I think that this is a very interesting scenario for an arms race...

 

[RossN]

Metropolitan France.​

Appendix - France in 1896

France, more properly the French Republic (République française) is in 1896 perhaps the first among equals of the Great Powers.

When talking about France one might mean the whole territory administered by the French Republic, including the vast overseas territories, municipalities and protectorates or, as more commonly used and focused on here, 'Metropolitan France' that is to say France-in-Europe.

Government

France is a bicameral parliamentary republic. The President of the French Republic (Président de la République française, generally translated simply as the 'President of France' in English) is the head of state elected by the National Assembly (Assemblée nationale), the lower and by far more powerful of the houses in the French parliament. The Senate (Sénat), filled by indirect election, is a body more akin to the House of Lords in the United Kingdom. It's primary function is to study and in some cases amend bills passed by the Assemblée.

Originally the office of president was very powerful, elected by direct suffrage and more akin the status enjoyed by the American president. However the scandals that forced Marshal Duchêne's resignation and the decade long dominance by republicans who were suspicious of such a powerful office changed this. The 'modern' presidency, elected by the deputies is a more marginal figurehead.

The French head of government is the President of the Council of Ministers (Président du Conseil des Ministres, inevitably translated as 'prime minister' or 'premier' so as to distingush him from the French head of state.) The French prime minister is a weaker office than his British counterpart [1], one held in addition to a personal ministry and at times little more than a chairman of the Cabinet. Frequently the most the dominant figure in the government is not the sitting prime minister - Jules Ferry was the deciding voice in French politics for nearly a decade while only being prime minister for a non-continuous period of about thirty seven months. Georges Ernest Boulanger, the strong man of the government in the 1890s and, unquestionably it's most popular member did not hold the office at all, almost continuously sitting as Minister for War alone.

The result of having both a weak head of state and a weak head of government means that the Assemblée effectively rules supreme in France, despite much criticism particularly on the right.

At the beginning of 1896 the conservatives dominate the Assemblée, though only just. The largest single faction are liberal leaning republicans.

Total Seats in the Assemblée nationale: 600

Royalistes: 170
Républicain modérés: 129
Droite nationalists: 8
Total Government: 307

Républicain libérales: 185
Républicain démocratiques: 108
Total Opposition: 293

Demographics

At the start of 1896 Metropolitan France is home to 52.29 million people, making France second only to Russia in population in Europe. Including only the borders of 1836 (and thus excluding Savoy, Rheinland and the French Palatinate) the figure is 48.57 million. In 1836 the same territory held 33.38 million people. Though the French birth rate is slightly lower than some other European powers, a low emigration rate and especially the excellence of French medicine and more recently state healthcare more than make up the balance [2].

An additional 1.13 million live in overseas departments like Guadeloupe and French Guiana [3] with perhaps half a million more French citizens scattered across the rest of the colonial empire, at least two thirds of them in Algeria alone.

Compared to Britain or the United States France has a much larger middle class, both in percentage terms and in real numbers. Professionals and skilled workers (clerks, but also bureaucrats, clergymen, military officers and artisans and so on) make up a significant number of the employed population with France having more clerks than Britain, the United States and Japan put together. Conversely the number of truly significant capitalists in France is far smaller, dwarfed by the captains of industry in New York, London and Tokyo. The result of all this is that France is home to multitudes of medium sized businesses, industries and banks rather than the great conglomerates favoured by the Americans and British. The universal adoption of protectionism by French political parties mean these businesses mostly compete against each other rather than foreign competitors handicapped by the tariff wall.

The strength of numbers of the bourgeois may be the reason for the chronic weakness of the French left. While both Britain and the United States have elected socialists governments in the past decade the only moment in French history where socialists ruled the country was in the immediate aftermath of the Revolution of 1875. Conversely this middle class dominance might explain the success of republicanism in its more moderate conservative and liberal guises rather than the royalism of the farmers or the socialism embraced by the urban working classes.

Languages & Dialects

French (by far the most widely spoken), Breton, Provençal, Picard, German, Italian, Corsican. There are also small communities of Berber, Arabic, Polish and Flemish speakers. Hebrew is known by many of the French Jewish community but no longer widely spoken outside of a specifically religious context.

Except in recently annexed Rheinland and parts of Savoy everyone at least knows French, even if a different day to day language or dialect is spoken. Since the education laws of the 1880s that provided universal free, compulsory education the speed at which local dialects are vanishing has increased.

Religion

The French are, at least nominally overwhelmingly Roman Catholic with approximately 94.5% of the population connected with the Church. Another 3.2% are Protestants of various denominations, the large majority native German speakers from Rheinland and the French Palantine. In contrast to the Protestants, most of the slightly more than three hundred thousand French Jews (about 0.6% of the population) are exactly that: French speaking and French identifying. Around thirty eight thousand Muslims (about 0.07% of the population) live in France, mostly of Algerian descent.

In practice observation rates among French men are somewhat low by European standards but noticeably higher among women [4].

Foreign Policy

France has binding military alliances with the Russian, Brazilian and Ottoman Empires and an understanding with the Papal States, though it is debatable how strong this commitment will prove should the Italian government attempt to annex Rome.

Industry & Trade

France's largest exports are lumber, grain (both of which she is the dominant producer) and fabrics (the second largest producer after Britain). France is also the largest producer of wine, tropical wood, furniture, canned foods, artillery and steamer convoys (the last two of which mean many of the world's navies order their warships from French firms.)

Top imports from outside the French colonial empire are tea (from China), coal (Britain) and regular clothing (the United States.)

In less traditional commercial news Auguste and Louis Lumière, two brothers from Besançon having very recently created the 'cinematograph', allowing multiple viewers to simultaneously observe moving images on film. It as yet unclear whether this will prove simply a novelty or pave the way for a new form of art and entertainment.

Military

The standing army consists of 378,000 men and officers, divided into 126 brigades. A further 690,000 men could be mobilised under a general call up of reserves. The army is undergoing yet another review with the Ministry of War concerned about the limited manpower available to serve in Africa. With another continental war seeming, for now, remote there is much focus on shoring up the colonial defences.

The navy consists of eight predreadnought battleships, eighteen modern cruisers, twenty seven now obsolete ironclads, thirty two commerce raiders, four monitors and eight steamer transports. The Ministry of the Marine would ideally like to mothball it's surviving ironclads in favour of battleships or at least modern protected cruisers but there is little appetite in the rest of the government for funding such a move when the ironclads are still seaworthy and the financial situation remains tight following the wars with Japan and North Germany.


Footnotes:

[1] Strictly speaking the actual 'office' of prime minister did not exist officially in Britain at this time - Campbell-Bannerman in 1906 was to first to officially be called that - but the position certainly did and the term was in common use.

[2] In game terms this has much to do with choosing scientific advantages that led to population increases. So it isn't so much that French women have more children than in our timeline (though the birth rate probably is a little higher) as France has better doctors. Judging strictly by the borders of modern France (ie. including Alsace Lorraine) this France has roughly nine million more people than the France of 'our' 1896.

[3] 'Overseas departments' is an anachronistic term but I am using them to distinguish between states and colonies; with the exception of some Indian Ocean islands and the Christmas and Cocos Islands these mostly conform to the real overseas departments. Algeria is somewhere in between. Most of Algeria's provinces are, in game terms, states and the overall French population is about 350,000 or 9.5% of the total population but Oran is not yet a state (though I think it will be eligible in the next few years.)

[4] This is historical from what I have read and seemingly was one of the reasons the vote came so late to French women in our timeline - the fear that they would vote out the republic.

 

[RossN]

A very brief little overview of France just to give you a snapshot of the country as she is in 1896.

As a rule I stay out of interfering with the economy or with what factories my capitalists make, so it was interesting to see what they where actually doing. Some results were very surprising (my dominance of canned food or tropical wood), some less so (my dominance of wine).
~~~~~~~

stnylan: I admit I hadn't planned on doing so and I'm quite keen to get back to the main narrative. Maybe for later though.

Nikolai: Thank you. I just wanted to give some idea what was going in the world at this point.

loup99: Greece is still communist. I believe there are communist rebels in Montenegro though they haven't succeeded just yet.

Mat Man: Glad you liked it! I predict it will be an interesting few years (not a result of playing ahead, just a guess.)

guillec87: Yes, very much. Budgetary constraints limit how much I can do - I very much prefer to take a hands off approach to industry and the economy - but I try with what resources I can scrounge together.

 

[guillec87]

next chapter will be about the Colonial EMpire?

 

[stnylan]

So on the one hand France looks very ready to enter the next century.

On the other ... with Dreyfuss looming ...

 

[Specialist290]

An intriguing pair of updates here.

It's a pleasant surprise to see China as a Great Power, even though it sounds an awful lot like it's a bit of a paper tiger. Then again, perhaps best not to underestimate them -- quantity has a quality all its own, or so I am told. It'll be interesting to see them and Japan compete for regional supremacy.

 

[Badesumofu]

An intriguing pair of updates here.

It's a pleasant surprise to see China as a Great Power, even though it sounds an awful lot like it's a bit of a paper tiger. Then again, perhaps best not to underestimate them -- quantity has a quality all its own, or so I am told. It'll be interesting to see them and Japan compete for regional supremacy.

I fought a war with a freshly GP China in my Australia game recently after they decided to object to my attempt to annex some Spanish colonies. China had a lot of troops, but they might as well have been paper soldiers for all the good they did. Maybe doesn't help that the AI doesn't combine its armies very well, because I picked their many stacks off with a couple of equal size stacks of my own for very few losses.

I love how simulationist this game is. Why is France more towards the right in this timeline? Because it has a bigger middle-class and middle-class pops are less likely to be socialist. I love that you can have situations where you want to pass a reform but the upper house isn't quite there yet, and you solve that by deliberately stirring up anger in your population which makes the politicians more amenable to reforms. It's such a real world thing to do, but it happens naturally as a result of the simulation.

 

[loup99]

France is a mighty and powerful country which is dominating Europe with its might, although underneath the hood of this seemingly ideal situation we may be able to hint that behind the scenes deeper divisions exist. Class appartenance or the place of living determines the votes, and the working class hasn't managed to get its voice heard in government, even though the Conservatives have tried to appeal to them through social measures. There are also some minorities who do not speak French, and they may feel increasingly alienated if nationalists such as Boulanger get more influence. The disappearance of dialects may not pose any long term threat, but it does tie into the wider question of the role of the Republican school.

At the same time religion still plays a role in the political divides and is perceived as having a connection to ethnicity for some, which could prove itself very dangerous in the upcoming years.

 

[AvatarOfKhaine]

Get those Women voting out the Republic, down with the Republic and up the Monarchy!

As a sidenote, considering the condensing in the late game of the deputies to just Royalists; should they get an overwhelming majority what would you do in terms of restoration? After all the Bonaparte did well as Prime Minister but the Bourbons remain kicking.

 

[Jape]

Just caught up RossN. The appendix is very useful and interesting.

China is always a mystery at this point in the game, it can modernise and become an absolute monster or if its too late or the Europeans hit too hard it can all come crashing down. Austria is smart to be courting Beijing, if the Qing hold it together and catch up (as Badesumofu says civilised status isn't a silver bullet) then Vienna has achieved a diplomatic coup. While it means Indochina is suddenly very vulnerable, it would also encourage two of your former enemies Britain and Japan to consider their options as you all have something to lose from a strong China, not to mention Russia.

The French class system is very interesting, the large middle-class and lack of tycoons. Very distributist. It explains the current path of politics and it will be interesting to see how it develops.

 

[Andreios II]

Really in depth look at France without blasting us all with too many stats! I get the sense that TTL France has more self-confidence than the OTL third republic (though maybe that's just biased historiography). Certainly this France feels more 'imperial' with the German territories and powerful navy. Maybe also because of the better medicine and bigger middle class, I imagine a clerk or capitalist would feel pretty confident they were living in a country on top of its game.

I wonder, given the bashing the NGF received, whether there will ever be a german unification in a similar way to OTL. Perhaps in the aftermath of a great war they will come together in a spirit of idealism. Moreover, where do you forsee a great war arising from?

 

[RossN]

Alfred Dreyfus on Devil's Island, 1896.​

Part Sixty Two - The Dreyfus Affair & the Election of 1899

The Dreyfus Affair, which would divide France for a decade and leave scars that took far longer to heal had it's murky origins in different but related troubles. Most obviously, though perhaps least relevantly, France was deeply suspicious of the Triple Monarchy. The reach of Vienna could seem very long at times, and with the collapse of North Germany as a serious counterbalance to the Hapsburgs the prospect of Großdeutschland suddenly appeared plausible. From the end of 1894 onward Henri Rochefort's L'Instransigent and her sister Boulangist newspapers called every other week for a 'preventative' war with the Austrians, much to the discomfort of the general. As Captain Dreyfus was accused and then convicted of passing on military secrets to the hated Austrians initially, on the surface, this was how the public mood saw him.

A much more problematic matter than the supposed target of Dreyfus's espionage was his identity. Alfred Dreyfus was one of France's approximately three hundred thousand Jews [1]. Though there had always been antisemitism in sections of French life, Dreyfus had the misfortune of being alive and a figure in public during a moment when that general feeling of prejudice had grown and festered. At a time of heightened religious tension in France the French Jewish population had come under increasing attack long before Dreyfus was known outside the Army. Édouard Adolphe Drumont, a Parisian journalist and firebrand had founded the Antisemitic League of France (Ligue antisémitique de France) in 1889.

For Drumont and others gripped by antisemitic fervor French Jews were the enemy within. Others primarily (though not solely) on the French right were only to eager to join in the vitriol, including, inevitably L'Instransigent though even that newspaper struggled to reach the heights of hysteria seen in Drumont's own journal La Libre Parole. Following this lead much of the Boulangist press turned antisemitic during the early 1890s, though the true explosion in vitriol arose as certain conflicting accounts of Dreyfus's guilt or innocence emerged in 1896.

General Boulanger, whatever his other flaws, was not antisemitic and had Jewish friends. However he was also hoping to become president of France and needed the continued support of his editors, most of whom were antisemitic like the writer and actvist Maurice Barrès. Boulanger was also Minister of War and his reputation depended on the notion that his reforms of the Army had been successful. In 1895 the general had made no public comment on Dreyfus, but from January of 1896 on as the affair came under greater scrutiny he felt obliged to support the anti-Dreyfusards.

For royalists the Dreyfus affair threatened to bring back the bitter splits of the 1880s. Antisemitism was hardly unknown in royalist ranks, like the flamboyant duelist the Marquis de Morès who rapidly became one of Drumont's key allies. However there were also several prominent Jewish royalists like the press baron Arthur Meyer who directed Le Gaulois or the actual baron Maurice de Hirsch. Baron Hirsch was a financier and philanthropist who traveled widely throughout Europe but whose primary home was in Paris and who had enthusiastically helped bankroll the royalist candidates in the three elections since 1889. Unfortunately not only was he Jewish he was not French born but a Bavarian, almost as bad as being an Austrian. Then there was the Marquis de Breteuil who was the grandson of the late Achille Fould, a Jewish Finance Minister of the July Monarchy [2].

The Comte d'Haussonville.​

The Duc d'Orléans might have been the head of the royalist movement but the true leader of French royalists was the Comte d'Haussonville. From the second half 1895 to early 1897 he was the prime minister and Minister of Justice. D'Haussonville had always had a difficult relationship with Boulanger and he despised the campaign against the Jews being waged in the popular press. D'Haussonville privately urged the Duc d'Orléans to say nothing on the Dreyfus matter. In this the royalist leader mixed principle with pragmatism and caution; alienating Hirsch and the politically neutral but not unsympathetic French Rothschilds would be disastorous for the royalist cause. Furthermore French Jews were a sizable voting population in several key departments and though laïcité made the liberal republicans more attractive for many, they were hardly a monolithic bloc. However equally there were dangers in advocating a pro-Dreyfus position. Many on the more staunchly Catholic wing of royalism saw the crisis as a liberal ploy to back an anti-clericalist attack on an Army percieved to be largely royalist. D'Haussonville himself was torn between his disgust at creatures like Drumont and his desire to protect the honour of the French soldiers.

Had Louis Philippe II still been alive the royalists might have been more vocal. The former king still had considerable authority in France and if it would be an exaggeration to call him philosemitic, principles and a strong does of shrewdness would at least have given him a stronger leadership role. Unfortunately the Duc d'Orléans, sadly felt to be weaker in character and intellect than his late father seemed more inclined to blow with the wind. The Comte d'Haussonville and others had to use all their influence to steer their prince away from trying to outflank Boulanger [3].

As 1896 wore on the split between the increasingly vocal Boulangists and the confused and indecisive royalists grew, especially as many royalists disobeyed d'Haussonville and joined the overtly anti-Dreyfusard camp. The Républicain modérés many of whose deputies also had Boulangist leanings were divided in themselves. Jules Méline, the leader of the conservative republicans and Finance Minister was one of the more hard-line anti-Dreyfusardists (though he lacked the antisemitic vitriol or Drumont or Barrès.) Other prominent republican anti-Dreyfusard included Félix Faure, Minister for the Marine and Godefroy Cavaignac, Boulanger's undersecretary. In most cases these politicians were driven less by convictions of Dreyfus's innocence and more by a desperate desire to, as they saw it, protect the state.

Throughout 1896 and on into 1897 General Boulanger behaved indecisively, making strong statements about Dreyfus's guilt but shrinking away from antisemitic rhetoric in public. In March 1896 after Lieutenant Colonel Georges Picquart discovered evidence that the true traitor was one Major Ferdinand Walsin Esterházy General Boulanger did nothing, other than approve the suggestions of the General Staff that the overzealous Picquart be transferred to North Africa. It was only late the following year that events forced him to act. The trial of Major Esterházy ended in his acquittal and from that moment the affair began to spiral out of control. On 13 January 1898 Émile Zola published his famous open letter to President Gaston Audiffret-Pasquier. "J'accuse ...!" appeared in Georges Clemenceau's liberal Paris daily L'Aurore. Clemenceau was just one of the prominent Dreyfusard politicians who would end up supporting Zola including Jean Jaurès and, most significantly, the conservative republican Alexandre Ribot.

By now d'Haussonville, foreseeing the enfolding disaster, had resigned and Méline was prime minister. Relations with Boulanger (blamed by many in the government for the crisis) had by now completely broken down. Méline himself had lost all faith in the Minister for War who he (correctly) suspected had lost his nerve. Boulanger was coming under pressure from all sides, whether to resign, stand his ground or even demand the cabinet appoint him prime minister. Instead he fell to pieces. To the astonishment and dismay of his followers in September 1898 the general temporarily fled his post for nerve failure. Arriving at the spa town of Bad Ragaz in Switzerland on 21 September. He would not return to France for five weeks.

General Boulanger was not a prime mover behind any of the events in the Dreyfus Affair; at all stages he was a passive, reactive figure. However it exposed many of the weaknesses in his personality and permanently damaged his authority. Many of his most ardent supporters abandoned him at once. Anne de Rochechouart de Mortemart, the Duchesse d'Uzès once a great admirer was particularly disgusted and withdrew her support and vast fortune from the Boulangist cause. Others quickly followed.

Meanwhile a temporary salve was put on the Dreyfus crisis by the intervention of Audiffret-Pasquier who pardoned Dreyfus, though the officer's eventual acquittal would not come for some years. Across France there was a growing sense of exhaustion at the crisis, a yearning to put the affair behind the nation.

The 1899 election saw the French electorate angered by the divisions of the Dreyfus affair.
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1899 was an election year, which was perhaps the only reason the government didn't collapse completely. As late as August 1898 it looked as if the anti-Dreyfusards would carry the country but the suicide of Major Hubert-Joseph Henry, Dreyfus's second trial and pardon and Boulanger's flight had a badly shaken the anti-Dreyfusards. The immediate casualties would be the far right deputies, the so called Droite nationalists who all lost their seats as the Boulangist election machine foundered. The royalists where also badly hit, the monarchist cause still split by d'Haussonville's enforced neutrality on Dreyfus and the generally unimpressive figure of the Duc d'Orléans. The socialists, to their great disappointment, failed to capitalise on the passions unleashed by the crisis.

For General Georges Boulanger the election marked the effective end of his political ambitions. Though he was once again elected in the Department of Le Nord he would not join any government and after a few months would quietly retire from public life. Even his electoral triumph, engineered largely in absence by loyal supporters was indicative of the man's career. For the many who had been deeply dissatisfied with the republic - socialists, royalists, nationalists - Boulanger, handsome and gallant, flexible in his public pronouncements had been a source of hope. However Boulanger was not truly a leader, certainly not the one so many of adherents wished and believed him to be. Far too often the general had proven timid and indecisive, a prisoner of his own supporters. In the Dreyfus affair he had at last become pinned down; had he stood up to the government or even seized power millions across France would have supported him. As it was the dreadful public spectacle of his loss of nerve made him, if not the saddest victim of the Dreyfus affair certainly the most prominent.

As counter intuitive as it might have seemed, the great winners of the 1899 election were the mainstream republicans, who between them won fully two thirds of the electorate. There could be no clearer sign of the exhaustion of French voters. On the whole this favoured the Dreyfusards like Clemenceau or Poincare but moderate anti-Dreyfusards like Méline were easily returned, and conservative republicans decisively overshadowed the socialists like Jaurès. In fact it is hard to escape the conclusion that most French citizens firmly agreed with Audiffret-Pasquier that the nation should put Dreyfus as far behind as possible. On one level the results should have been of great comfort to the liberals. The election had delivered a decisive rejection of the foes of the republic, whether they were monarchists, Boulangists or the farthest left. However as the dust settled the mainstream republicans were forced to consider how they would work together in practice.

The liberals had again won the largest single share of the vote and seats but the moderates were very close in both and with the support of the remaining royalists the new compromise government leaned conservative. After much tense negotiation Alexandre Ribot would form a cabinet. It was a wise move. Ribot was a strong republican and had advocated for Dreyfus making him acceptable to the liberals. However he was also an opponent of anticlericalism, allowing the royalists to support him in good conscience. The new prime minister would need all the good will he could find if he was to steer a shaken and divided France towards stability.

The election of 13 October 1899.
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Footnotes:

[1] During the actual Dreyfus affair the Jewish population was much lower than this but in this timeline the French Jewish population is much larger, even accounting for the increased population overall. This also why I noted concerns about alienating Jewish voters in key Departments.

[2] This all historical. Arthur Meyer in particular is an intriguing figure who actually fought a duel against Drumont (one of many Drumont was involved in.) The Marquis de Morès meanwhile is one of those people who would certainly come across as fictional had they not been real (I'm honestly shocked he never appeared in a Flashman story.) Aside from being a rabid antisemite he found time to become the most famous duelist of the day, emigrated to America and became a frontiersman, gunslinger and sometime railroad baron before returning to France and political life. He ended up being murdered in Algeria in 1896.

[3] Sadly from what I have read this is fairly historical though given the Comte d'Haussonville's authority here he is better able to enforce cautious neutrality. The Duc d'Orléans hardly comes across well during the Dreyfus saga, even if he was far from the malevolent lunacy of Rochefort or Drumont. The royalists both here and in reality were really damaged by the early death of the Count of Paris who comes across as cleverer and more admirable than his son.