I was wondering what the ordinal ranking of the trade good prices were so I did a simple analysis.
First, I took the base price of the good, then added modifiers for price changing events according to
1) The date when the event typically happens (taken from the historical files);
2) If the event lasts the entire game, or for a specific length of time
3) The relative likelihood of the event occurring in any given game (starting from 1444), based on a rough probabilistic outline I've seen from playing hundreds of games.
The third point is the most tenuous, as it's a pretty rough approximation in some instances, but it should get the job done in most cases. For example, I give the event "Protestant Fish" (which decreases fish prices by 10%) about a 100% chance of happening in games starting from 1444, simply because the trigger (any nation having 5 or more protestant provinces) is extremely likely to happen. Another event, Development of Veneering, I gave a 75% chance of happening based on what I've seen in games.
Basically, I was trying to approximate what the "average" price of a good was over the course of the game.
The ordinal ranking for prices are:
1. Good old grain beats out Wool and Fish for the cheapest/worst good.
2. Despite it's ubiquity, fur isn't actually that bad of a good. It's low base value is bolstered by three events that are practically guaranteed to happen in the early-mid game.
3. Tea is surprisingly bad. I had typically grouped it with other high-priced exotics like spices, dyes, and silk, but it's low base price of 2 is only marginally bolstered by two events that happen pretty late (typically in the mid game).
4. Iron and Copper have about the same average value over the course of the game.
5. The best goods are clearly silk, dyes, cocoa, and ivory. If you can get a lock on these through trading or conquest, you're in for a lucrative game.
Also, some strategies I've been thinking up as this thread has progressed.
1. In past games when I have been trying to establish a presence in India, I had typically landed in the west around Goa to capture the coastal spices. I would have typically been doing this around mid-game. My second tier list shows that this is a silly decision. I could have landed in the East around the Bengal delta and snaked my way up the Ganges. This would have netted me lots of Ivory, Dyes, Cotton, and the most Silk-heavy area of the game. In addition, all of this land would be farmland that's easy to expand. I could have easily doubled my trade output/value.
2. It turns out that the areas just south of the Caspian have a huge concentration of the best goods in the game. I hadn't typically been giving this area the proper respect it deserved.
3. I had been avoiding fur provinces when colonizing, thinking they were essentially garbage. That meant that between colonizing Canada or just focusing on Europe, I would have chosen the latter. It turns out that fur is about as good as spices in the second half of the game.
4. I would have stayed the hell away from China's tea provinces. I had no idea they were so mediocre.
5. If I go colonizing, I would have typically made a beeline for the West Indes. While these provinces are good, a better place to target would be Mexico, specifically the Yucatan. There's a cluster of provinces that have cocoa, which is one of the best goods. Capturing this would be a huge boon to any empire, and doing so early in the game would give you a vice-grip on cocoa which has a nice manpower recovery bonus. Plus, it would practically guarantee the Hot Chocolate event later in the game, which boosts cocoa prices by 40%. In fact, the reason cocoa has usually flown under my radar is because of how fleeting this event is. It has very specific circumstances, but if you can get it then cocoa becomes the best good in the game by a large margin. It's price shoots to an amazing 5.4, which is 0.4 higher than any other good.
6. The most rare price-changing event is by far the Bengali Dye Production. I have never seen the AI trigger it from a 1444 start, but it should be trivial for a player. All you have to do is own a specific chunk of India (the rich chunk in fact, that I mentioned earlier). Then you'll get the option for the Bengali Dye Expansion, which converts two of your non-silk provinces in India to dyes, and drops the price of dyes by 25%. Dyes are still worth enough for it to be a profitable decision to take, but it will hurt every other nation that relies on dyes quite a bit. I was thinking of a recent Portugal game where I was competing against Spain. They had moved into West-Africa which has garbage goods for the most part. However, it does have a cluster of 6 dye provinces which they were using to fund mercs. Triggering the Bengali Dye event might have been just enough to push me over the top in terms of comparative power against them.
First, I took the base price of the good, then added modifiers for price changing events according to
1) The date when the event typically happens (taken from the historical files);
2) If the event lasts the entire game, or for a specific length of time
3) The relative likelihood of the event occurring in any given game (starting from 1444), based on a rough probabilistic outline I've seen from playing hundreds of games.
The third point is the most tenuous, as it's a pretty rough approximation in some instances, but it should get the job done in most cases. For example, I give the event "Protestant Fish" (which decreases fish prices by 10%) about a 100% chance of happening in games starting from 1444, simply because the trigger (any nation having 5 or more protestant provinces) is extremely likely to happen. Another event, Development of Veneering, I gave a 75% chance of happening based on what I've seen in games.
Basically, I was trying to approximate what the "average" price of a good was over the course of the game.
The ordinal ranking for prices are:
Silk 4.42
Dyes 4.41
Cocoa 4.26
Ivory 4.19
Tobacco 3.88
Spices 3.80
Copper 3.76
Coffee 3.75
Iron 3.74
Cloth 3.63
Sugar 3.61
Cotton 3.49
Salt 3.23
Chinaware 3.07
Fur 2.95
Wine 2.73
Slaves 2.60
Tea 2.42
Naval Supplies 2.37
Tropical wood 2.35
Fish 2.13
Wool 2.07
Grain 1.98
Some interesting points:Dyes 4.41
Cocoa 4.26
Ivory 4.19
Tobacco 3.88
Spices 3.80
Copper 3.76
Coffee 3.75
Iron 3.74
Cloth 3.63
Sugar 3.61
Cotton 3.49
Salt 3.23
Chinaware 3.07
Fur 2.95
Wine 2.73
Slaves 2.60
Tea 2.42
Naval Supplies 2.37
Tropical wood 2.35
Fish 2.13
Wool 2.07
Grain 1.98
1. Good old grain beats out Wool and Fish for the cheapest/worst good.
2. Despite it's ubiquity, fur isn't actually that bad of a good. It's low base value is bolstered by three events that are practically guaranteed to happen in the early-mid game.
3. Tea is surprisingly bad. I had typically grouped it with other high-priced exotics like spices, dyes, and silk, but it's low base price of 2 is only marginally bolstered by two events that happen pretty late (typically in the mid game).
4. Iron and Copper have about the same average value over the course of the game.
5. The best goods are clearly silk, dyes, cocoa, and ivory. If you can get a lock on these through trading or conquest, you're in for a lucrative game.
Also, some strategies I've been thinking up as this thread has progressed.
1. In past games when I have been trying to establish a presence in India, I had typically landed in the west around Goa to capture the coastal spices. I would have typically been doing this around mid-game. My second tier list shows that this is a silly decision. I could have landed in the East around the Bengal delta and snaked my way up the Ganges. This would have netted me lots of Ivory, Dyes, Cotton, and the most Silk-heavy area of the game. In addition, all of this land would be farmland that's easy to expand. I could have easily doubled my trade output/value.
2. It turns out that the areas just south of the Caspian have a huge concentration of the best goods in the game. I hadn't typically been giving this area the proper respect it deserved.
3. I had been avoiding fur provinces when colonizing, thinking they were essentially garbage. That meant that between colonizing Canada or just focusing on Europe, I would have chosen the latter. It turns out that fur is about as good as spices in the second half of the game.
4. I would have stayed the hell away from China's tea provinces. I had no idea they were so mediocre.
5. If I go colonizing, I would have typically made a beeline for the West Indes. While these provinces are good, a better place to target would be Mexico, specifically the Yucatan. There's a cluster of provinces that have cocoa, which is one of the best goods. Capturing this would be a huge boon to any empire, and doing so early in the game would give you a vice-grip on cocoa which has a nice manpower recovery bonus. Plus, it would practically guarantee the Hot Chocolate event later in the game, which boosts cocoa prices by 40%. In fact, the reason cocoa has usually flown under my radar is because of how fleeting this event is. It has very specific circumstances, but if you can get it then cocoa becomes the best good in the game by a large margin. It's price shoots to an amazing 5.4, which is 0.4 higher than any other good.
6. The most rare price-changing event is by far the Bengali Dye Production. I have never seen the AI trigger it from a 1444 start, but it should be trivial for a player. All you have to do is own a specific chunk of India (the rich chunk in fact, that I mentioned earlier). Then you'll get the option for the Bengali Dye Expansion, which converts two of your non-silk provinces in India to dyes, and drops the price of dyes by 25%. Dyes are still worth enough for it to be a profitable decision to take, but it will hurt every other nation that relies on dyes quite a bit. I was thinking of a recent Portugal game where I was competing against Spain. They had moved into West-Africa which has garbage goods for the most part. However, it does have a cluster of 6 dye provinces which they were using to fund mercs. Triggering the Bengali Dye event might have been just enough to push me over the top in terms of comparative power against them.
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