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If nothing else, the Republicans not being locked out of government for 40 years whilst rhe Democrats rebuild the entire nation in their own image and become seen as the 'default' party, is going to change how they view and act amongst themsevles.
 
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If nothing else, the Republicans not being locked out of government for 40 years whilst rhe Democrats rebuild the entire nation in their own image and become seen as the 'default' party, is going to change how they view and act amongst themsevles.
If this means no Nixon and no one-party-adopting-racism-as-a-platform I will sell everything and move to the TTverse no matter what El Pip says about "Turkish misery work".
 
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If this means no Nixon and no one-party-adopting-racism-as-a-platform I will sell everything and move to the TTverse no matter what El Pip says about "Turkish misery work".

The Republicans don't go nuts, the Democrats don't become a horrible mess of every single ideology from socialist to Conservative, the amercians in general are not the world police, no Cold War, Europe at peace, and the soviet Union MIGHT get better...

Not a bad world.

Unless you're German or Japanese or Chinese or African or Ukrainian or southern Italian.

Or kurdish.

Or...
 
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I wonder who is the single ALP member
From Wikipedia:

Vito Anthony Marcantonio (December 10, 1902 – August 9, 1954) was an Italian-American lawyer and politician who served East Harlem for seven terms in the United States House of Representatives.

n8yFYo.jpg

For most of his political career, he was a member of the American Labor Party, believing that neither major American political party supported the interests of the working class. For two years prior to his party switching to Labor, he was a New Deal coalition member of the progressive branch of the Republican Party as a supporter of Fiorello LaGuardia (prior to the party's realignment as a mostly conservative party). Marcantonio was a socialist and avid supporter of the working class, poor, immigrants, labor unions, and African-American civil rights.

He was elected to the House again from New York in 1938, and served this time for six terms, from 1939 to 1951, being re-elected in the elections of 1940, 1942, 1944, 1946 and 1948. He was so popular in that district that he cross-filed in the cross-filing primaries between Democratic and Republican primaries, and won the nominations of both parties, and he also gained the endorsement of the ALP, an example of electoral fusion.

In 1947, when the U.S. Congress passed legislation to provide financial aid to fight communism in Turkey and Greece, such as during the Greek Civil War, Marcantonio was the only congressman to not applaud the action, symbolizing his disagreement with the Truman Doctrine. In 1950, Marcantonio opposed American involvement in the Korean War. He argued that North Korea had been the victim of an unprovoked attack by South Korea.

In 1950, Marcantonio was defeated by the Democrat James G. Donovan for his House seat, after a particularly vociferous campaign against him because of his refusal to vote for American participation in the Korean War. In that election, Donovan had the broad-based popular support of the Democratic, Republican, and Liberal parties.
Cue TBC acting surprised about this.
:p Were the Republicans ever not going to do this, especially after FDR so openly joined the Comintern during the war? :D
Good luck with that. Maybe at least in this ATL the illusion will last a little bit longer?
This is his draft policy, anyway, to help guide policy. What it means is he's less likely to commit regular US forces to overseas adventures, but it's a policy preference, not an ironclad rule of course. And who knows what he or others may do down the track? And the drafters already realise they will come up with some wicked choices where different elements of the policy will inevitably conflict with each other, or the 'facts on the ground' may be difficult to discern or evolve in unexpected directions over time or due to big or unpredictable events.
Someone should tell the CIA before they start installing dictators everywhere.
:D
This can only end well I am sure.
I likewise wonder if he will make it up the greasy pole in TTL (if we get that far), or he's just another coulda been champion.
I can't help but think he wouldn't actually be too different, just because he was so energetic in OTL and also because lack of drug addiction has very little to do with surviving having the back of one's head blown off. Not to mention, debatably, that I do think his political charisma outweighed his actual political accomplishments, which I don't see changing here. Overall not likely to be one of the major butterflies here.
Same as above with JFK. Also, I guess something similar about his trajectory. But would whoever <insert your preferred theory, conspiracy or otherwise> shot him end up doing the same in TTL, if he ever makes it to the top? Hmm, an imponderable ...
I do not like this.

As a Soviet, at least.

As a European, it is hilariously too late.

In regards to Asia...it may also be too late there as well.
Well, whether early, late or (Gandalf like) exactly when it was required, he had to think up something to guide his way ahead! :D
This part seems reasonably sound, especially it seems to fall short of actively seeking to overthrow "unfriendly" regimes...
Yes, a little bit less strident than the OTL Truman Doctrine, but similar in sweep.
Again, this is quite positive, although hopes of dialling down a potential cold war seem to fading fast. :(
But there's still hope that things may not get as bad as they did. One never knows, and I haven't fully decided yet. There could be a few crucial forks in the road where the probability dice feature in decisions and reactions to them.
And now Dewey is starting to tread on more dangerous ground, perhaps risking confrontation with the Soviets, but certainly exposing the U.S. to the unintended consequences of his interventions.
Yes, risk remains, but it's meant to be less than in OTL. In other words, where say Truman may have leapt in with troops, Dewey will try to get away with something less if he can. Be he also doesn't want to be a doormat. A narrow path which may lead to a dead end anyway.
To be fair, the U.K. is not much further ahead than the U.S. and neither is all that far behind the German-led Soviet programme. The gap between all three may only be a couple of years or so in TTL.
This is pretty spot on, I think. And in the current climate, a big east-west global conflict seems even less likely than in OTL.
I think Dewey's missed the boat here as the Soviets are now locking down their programme. Also, it's very hard to imagine any kind of clandestine German R&D happening without the Soviets becoming aware of it, so there shouldn't be any risk of German technology actually falling into German hands!
Yes, it was an OTL event combo that, with minimal changes, could be adapted quite nicely to the TTL situation. Joe wasn't going to let this one slip further if he could help it.
A modest setback for Dewey, but he didn't control the House before hand, so no big deal.
Hardly a blip given how these things often go, and how far they went against Truman in that mid-term in OTL.
This, however, is a significant win for the White House!
Yes, even in a less strictly partisan era, a significant thing to not have both chambers hostile.
If nothing else, the Republicans not being locked out of government for 40 years whilst rhe Democrats rebuild the entire nation in their own image and become seen as the 'default' party, is going to change how they view and act amongst themsevles.
We won't get up to the recent era, but it's interesting to hypothesise.
If this means no Nixon and no one-party-adopting-racism-as-a-platform I will sell everything and move to the TTverse no matter what El Pip says about "Turkish misery work".
Haha! Yes, not as bad as the 'merchants of doom' thought it may be. But still with it's rough edges ...
The Republicans don't go nuts, the Democrats don't become a horrible mess of every single ideology from socialist to Conservative, the amercians in general are not the world police, no Cold War, Europe at peace, and the soviet Union MIGHT get better...

Not a bad world.

Unless you're German or Japanese or Chinese or African or Ukrainian or southern Italian.

Or kurdish.

Or...
... as in the above. :eek:

Thanks once again everyone for your continued readership and comments. Next chapter shouldn't be too ;long in posting.
 
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Chapter 255: UGNR, USSR and Nuclear Research – July to December 1946
Chapter 255: UGNR, USSR and Nuclear Research – July to December 1946

Turkish Election: Lead-Up

As at October 1944, Turkish political parties (all of which were illegal at that time other than the CHP, under the one-party state system) had the following estimated support in the community.

XByAni.jpg

As the 1946 poll is a legislative election, İnönü as president is not up for election. This election will determine the prime minister (the notional head of government of Turkey), though everyone knows it will still be run by the Millî Şef. Any broader elections for the component GNRs of the UGNR will not be held until at least 1947, as opposed to independent Bucharest Pact nations, which were held throughout 1946 and the special election in the Greek GNR.

The General elections held in Turkey on 21 July 1946, were the first multi-party elections in the country's history. As mentioned previously, the very dubious multiple non-transferable vote electoral system was used in combination with open voting and secret counting. The result was a massive victory for the Republican People's Party (CHP), which won 395 of the 465 seats. The opposition Democrats and independents won the rest of the seats.

HKBnO1.jpg

By July 1946, the CHP had trended from a paternal autocrat to conservative political position and absorbed the [in-game] conservative Millet Partisi. This also reflects the ‘rigging effect’ of the 1946 electoral process. The DP trends to centre right but absorbs the TIP social democrats at this election. The PCP has been legalised and (unlike OTL) its leader is not imprisoned, due to the relationship with the USSR and Turkey’s wartime Comintern membership. As a political trade-off to the harder line elements within Turkey, the far-right parties have also been allowed to participate, though it was expected their influence would be limited. This left the figures below as the main players in the 1946 election.

sCv9IM.jpg

Left: İsmet İnönü (b. 24 September 1884), President of Turkey and the UGNR. Centre Left: Recep Peker (b. 5 February 1889) a former military officer and Kaya’s successor as Interior Minister, from the hard right of the CHP and their candidate for Prime Minister at the 1946 legislative election. Centre Right: Celal Bayar, (16 May 1883) former Prime Minister, now main opposition leader as head of the Demokrat Party. Right: Hikmet Ali Kıvılcımlı (b. 1902) leader of the pro-Stalin PCP.

The figures below show estimates for the population, eligible electorate and voting number for 1946. [As none could be found on-line for 1946, the proportions voting were extrapolated from more recent examples, applied to the total Turkish population for 1945, the closest I could find to the election.]

cZoXvS.jpg

The population for each district was scaled to the number of voters and therefore the number of seats it each would supply. [To simplify the vote process, I reduced the number of voting districts to just 15, based on the most populous current Turkish provinces. It was necessary, as in this system, each district would attract individual swings for each of the six parties that ended up contesting. I had more initially but it was way too much effort for the benefit gained.] This made Istanbul by far the most important single district, followed by Ankara and Izmir with (broadly like the Turkish system, with proportional representation within each province to allocate its seats), giving the following allocations.

ejvQFC.jpg

Before any nationwide or district swings were applied, the post-war political liberalisation and re-alignments gave the following standings in a poll taken as the campaigning began.

K2q6sv.jpg


k3uQkJ.jpg

The swing table for Turkey. Applied to each of the six parties in each of the 15 districts (so 90 x percentage die rolls).

As the national campaigning period ended, it became clear that the radical Emek Partisi was dead in the water. It withdrew its candidates from the process to avoid embarrassment. The biggest national shift of opinion was towards Celal Bayar’s Demokrat Partisi, followed by an unexpectedly strong showing from the fascist Bozkurtlar. The FMP was also performing quite strongly, while the rest had small increases or stayed even nationally.

OQjFO1.jpg


---xxx---

Turkish Election Day: 21 July

The 10 smallest district results were the first to be tabulated. These early results had the ruling CHP on track to hold a majority of seats.

3KqfZJ.jpg

After 14 of the 15 districts were decided, the CHP had been pegged back somewhat and the Demokrats gaining, with the far left heavily out-polling their ideological opposites on the right.

icKuAA.jpg

This left the crucial Istanbul district, with more than a quarter of the 465 seats to be decided. The Ülkücü Hareket, CHP, Demokrats and PCP suffered small swings away, while the FMP was wiped out, failing to win any seats in Istanbul. The big winner in Istanbul was Bozkurtlar, which gained a large swing (10%). They had been wiped out (-4% swing or worse) in six of the other districts, bringing their vote back down again. But the strong result in Istanbul alone delivered 18 of the 26 seats they would take nationally.

The even more extreme Ülkücü Hareket only gained minor support, going backwards in the overall national proportion of votes (given even larger increases to many of the other parties). On the far left, the FMP increased its small share quite significantly, while the Stalinist PCP went slightly backwards, but would remain the third largest group in the new assembly, by a small margin over Bozkurtlar.

In the ‘main game’, the ruling CHP’s proportional share went backwards by about 6% after their overall provincial performance was better than the national polls had indicated. They were still able to achieve an absolute majority of seats: 255 of the 465, where a majority was 233. The Demokrats underperformed somewhat in the districts but ended up with a respectable take of seats.

0gCFlz.jpg

The CHP’s Recep Peker would be the new Prime Minister – and with affiliations on the right wing of Turkey’s political spectrum and a long mistrust of the left and its growing influence in Turkey in recent years, he would not be overly sympathetic to Communist agitation, within Turkey or further a-field in the UGNR and Bucharest Pact. Though he remained deferential to the great Milli Şef and did not openly seek to undermine or change the strategic alliance with the Soviet Union.

---xxx---

UGNR Events: Greece

On 28 October Markos Vafiades announced the creation of the "Democratic Army", a 13,000 member guerrilla force that sought to place the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) into power.

UlxIh0.jpg

KKE emblem.

The established declaration of the new Democratic Army of Greece (The Democratic Army of Greece (Δημοκρατικός Στρατός Ελλάδας, romanised to Dimokratikós Stratós Elládas or DSE) stated in part: "It is the national people’s revolutionary army of the new Democratic Greece and fights with gun in hand for our National independence and for People's Democracy."

uUl7t4.jpg

Fighters of the DSE, October 1946.

There was no direct connection to Soviet influence that the Turkish security services could find but the development did sew the seeds of suspicion within Turkish government circles. They saw the potential for ‘home grown’ communist elements within the UGNR and wider Bucharest Pact to gradually (through political means) – or suddenly (via revolts or insurgencies) – come more under Soviet influence. Some argued that neither Stalin nor Inönü would live or remain in power forever and were uneasy about what may follow.

With their continuing close relationship, especially in naval and air force acquisitions and marine cooperation, the US picked up on some of this disquiet. In low-key discussions, the Dewey administration offered “whatever logistical, training or financial support” might be required for Turkey to “forestall local Communist insurgencies or takeovers” in its sprawling sphere of influence.

---xxx---
UGNR Canton Proposal

MAJGEN Diskoereko confidentially submitted a draft plan to divide the rest of the UGNR into cantons rather than accepting the pre-GW2 borders as sacrosanct. This plan would be developed further for presentation to the Cabinet some time in early 1947, but some of the key points are explained below. Proposed names and territorial allocations remained in draft form [and all subject to a more detailed map check):
  • The cantons would be of more or less equal population, around 7 million.
  • Italy would be further sub-divided into six cantons from the current three regions: Etruria, Napolitania, Magna Grecia, Savoy, Lombardy and Veneto-Romagna.
  • Rumelia includes East Thrace from Turkey (although this was quickly vetoed by Inönü), West Thrace and Thessaloniki from Greece, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Coastal Bulgaria and Black Forest from Bulgaria.
  • The rest north of that is South Slavia, except the Aegean coast would go to Ionia.
  • The proposals for cantons with Turkey were also vetoed by Inönü: current Turkish borders would be maintained, in part to ensure the clear predominance of the Motherland over all the other GNRs (whether based on current borders or a new canton format, or a combination).
  • Iranian South Azerbaijan, Qashqai and Turkmen parts of Iran (again excluding any current Turkish national territory, as vetoed by the President) would form South Turkistan, with the rest of Persia and Balochistan rounding out the central Asian GNRs.
  • Arabia would one canton, with Syria and Lebanon probably forming another (neither of those currently marked on the draft map below).
  • Guyana, Caribbean possessions and Western half of West Africa might form one canton and the Eastern half of West Africa, Equatorial Africa and Cameroons another.
uMNqZs.jpg

Draft UGNR Canton concept and map courtesy of MAJGEN E. Diskoerekto, December 1946.

---xxx---

Soviet Union

Andrei Gromyko told a closed session of the League of Nations Security Council on 21 July that the Soviet Union would not accept the Baruch Plan to ban all further production of nuclear weapons.

After drought and a poor harvest added to a famine in the Soviet Union, a governmental decree went into effect on 16 September, doubling the price for rations of meat and dairy products, and tripling the price of bread. On September 27, another decree reduced the number of people entitled to bread rations. The famine would last into 1947, costing more than a million lives.

T4Bs2F.jpg

Grain requisition in Mykolaiv oblast during the Famine of 1946-47.

Plans were put in place to further increase shipment of food from Germany, causing severe shortages, hoarding and black market price rises there. This further inflamed the simmering resentment that the majority of Germans felt for the despised Soviet occupiers.

nutd8V.jpg

German food protest, September 1946.

On 27 September Maksim Litvinov [Nikolai V. Novikov in OTL], the Soviet ambassador to the United States, sent a long telegram to his boss, Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, describing US foreign and defence policy under Dewey’s Republicans as reflecting "imperialistic tendencies of monopolistic American capital" and "a striving for world economic and military supremacy". This despite “sincere Soviet efforts to maintain cordial relations”.

Analogous to George F. Kennan's February 22 "long telegram", the Litvinov cable helped shape the Soviets’ military, diplomatic and political strategy in the coming years. This would be to build up nuclear and conventional strength, remain engaged in international institutions and support ‘liberation movements’ in selected hot spots.

A Russian language translation of the Strategic Position of the British Empire, a top secret document stolen from the War Office, was delivered to Soviet leader Joseph Stalin on 27 October. While the British would continue to attempt to lead the newly forming Western Alliance and draw the US more closely into it, the Soviets assessed their overseas empire and puppet relationships would be vulnerable internally to de-colonising influences within the Attlee government and externally to various insurgencies in hot spots in the Middle East and Asia, in particular.

The Soviet Army carried out the simultaneous roundup on 27 October of all persons in Soviet occupied Germany who were deemed essential to the Soviet missile and nuclear programs, then shipped them and their families by train to the USSR. They also stepped up internal security policing and military readiness across Germany as the food crisis worsened during the coming winter.

21bNTX.jpg

Soviet occupation forces in Germany, 1946.

Despite some suggestions from Beria, Stalin refused to sanction any provocative activity either in Greece or the peripheral Bucharest Pact states of central Europe at this time. But elements within Soviet foreign and defence circles were happy to see indigenous communist political advances in some of the other former countries (now GNRs), especially Serbia, Bulgaria and Albania, during 1946. They hoped to take advantage of coming Turkish efforts to spread democratisation into the GNRs to see more pro-communist assemblies in as many of those countries as possible.

3zFKFr.jpg

Bulgarian Communist Party membership card.

As the year progressed, the NKVD began to receive the occasional disturbing report that militant neo-Nazi paramilitary groups may be forming. It was reportedly linked to the Werwolf plan developed in the early days of 1944, as the tide of the war had turned decisively against the Hitlerites. Though that plan had been more designed for behind the lines operations, not as a post-war guerrilla campaign, so these reports were probably not credible nor substantiated.

But from early 1946 onward, Soviet intelligence officials had noted resistance activities by an organisation reported to be composed mainly of former members and officers of Hitler Youth units, ex-soldiers and drifters, and was described by an intelligence report as "a sentimental, adventurous, and romantically anti-social [movement]". It was not necessarily a Nazi group however and was regarded as a more serious menace to order than the Werwolf by Soviet officials.

A raid in October 1946 captured 80 former German officers who were members, and who possessed a list of 400 persons to be liquidated. Further members of the group were seized with caches of ammunition and even anti-tank rockets. In late 1946 reports of activities gradually died away. But was that because they had been dispersed, or were getting more careful?

---xxx---

Nuclear Research

By 1 July, in advance of the introduction of the new plan to construct an atomic bomb, on 1 July [at my intervention] US civil nuclear research recommenced. The US already possessed a nuclear reactor, so as the year ended research on a nuclear weapon became possible. It was anticipated that the theoretical ability to produce one would be attained by the beginning of April 1947, after which construction would begin under the revived Manhattan Project.

NBU7DS.jpg

The US [of its own volition] had already begun its own strategic rocket program by July 1946. As the year ended, initial development had been researched and theoretical work on a flying bomb had commenced.

The German-Soviet program attained the theoretical level required for atomic bomb-making in early July 1946. The research had progressed further by the end of 1946 and a third level of improved technology was being researched, which when achieved would speed up production to 30% of a weapon each month. It current stood at 20%, and the first atomic bomb was about 80% complete, expected to reach 100% soon afterwards (on 1 January 1947).

6u4Kg4.jpg

The strategic rocket program, now relocated to the Soviet Union, was also well advanced, far beyond any other country at the time.

The UK had reached the necessary theoretical level of nuclear research to develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 1946. But, due to a lack of coordination (and its great expense) had not yet commenced work on the nuclear reactor required to start that final stage of research. Due to intelligence reports of the imminent completion of a first German-Soviet weapon, this oversight was rectified on 31 December, but construction would take another eight and a half months to complete.

EAigWD.jpg

The UK had not even begun any strategic rocket research at this point.

The Turkish nuclear program still lagged that of the others, even the US, considerably at this time, while Japanese research was in its infancy.
 
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There was no direct connection to Soviet influence that the Turkish security services could find but the development did sew the seeds of suspicion within Turkish government circles. They saw the potential for ‘home grown’ communist elements within the UGNR and wider Bucharest Pact to gradually (through political means) – or suddenly (via revolts or insurgencies) – come more under Soviet influence. Some argued that neither Stalin nor Inönü would live or remain in power forever and were uneasy about what may follow.

I suspect this is a genuine home grown movement. The Soviets 'want' turkey to rule the balkans, so they don't have to. They'll see it as a good indicator of post war communist support, and quietly demonstrate to Turkey they had nothing to do with it.

The famine would last into 1947, costing more than a million lives.

This made me think that the largest change to the Soviet Union TTL is probably the many, many millions of Soviets who are still alive here, having not died in the war, under nazi occupation or Soviet measures to keep the war effort going.

That's going to have a colossal impact on the entire union post war, in ways we really can't imagine.

Despite some suggestions from Beria, Stalin refused to sanction any provocative activity either in Greece or the peripheral Bucharest Pact states of central Europe at this time. But elements within Soviet foreign and defence circles were happy to see indigenous communist political advances in some of the other former countries (now GNRs), especially Serbia, Bulgaria and Albania, during 1946. They hoped to take advantage of coming Turkish efforts to spread democratisation into the GNRs to see more pro-communist assemblies in as many of those countries as possible.

The Soviet postion is probably along the lines of 'it would be nice if...' the balakns went communist. If the Turkish became communist etc

For the moment, the UGNR is super important to keep on side, and the demonstrably large support of socialism, and specifically leninism and stalinism in Turkey and the balkans is going to be taken as a good sign, and fertile ground to quietly nourish over the next few decades.

Patience is the name of the game here.
 
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The Soviets claim to be for the workers, but they have a top down system as bad as 19th century serfdom. Thanks

Soviets are railing against imperialism, but trying to form a powerful empire.

Trying?
 
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. Right: Hikmet Ali Kıvılcımlı (b. 1902)

:D

The population for each district was scaled to the number of voters and therefore the number of seats it each would supply. [To simplify the vote process, I reduced the number of voting districts to just 15, based on the most populous current Turkish provinces. It was necessary, as in this system, each district would attract individual swings for each of the six parties that ended up contesting. I had more initially but it was way too much effort for the benefit gained.] This made Istanbul by far the most important single district, followed by Ankara and Izmir with (broadly like the Turkish system, with proportional representation within each province to allocate its seats), giving the following allocations.
not nitpicking, but for future reference in Turkish wikipedia it's possible to see population of cities at several points in time. Funny to see how the population balance was before the huge internal migration waves of the 60s and 90s.

This left the crucial Istanbul district, with more than a quarter of the 465 seats to be decided. The Ülkücü Hareket, CHP, Demokrats and PCP suffered small swings away, while the FMP was wiped out, failing to win any seats in Istanbul. The big winner in Istanbul was Bozkurtlar, which gained a large swing (10%). They had been wiped out (-4% swing or worse) in six of the other districts, bringing their vote back down again. But the strong result in Istanbul alone delivered 18 of the 26 seats they would take nationally.

The even more extreme Ülkücü Hareket only gained minor support, going backwards in the overall national proportion of votes (given even larger increases to many of the other parties). On the far left, the FMP increased its small share quite significantly, while the Stalinist PCP went slightly backwards, but would remain the third largest group in the new assembly, by a small margin over Bozkurtlar.

In the ‘main game’, the ruling CHP’s proportional share went backwards by about 6% after their overall provincial performance was better than the national polls had indicated. They were still able to achieve an absolute majority of seats: 255 of the 465, where a majority was 233. The Demokrats underperformed somewhat in the districts but ended up with a respectable take of seats.
I love elections, I love this universe and I'm Turkish, so this has been a great episode for me!!! Thanks man!

The CHP’s Recep Peker would be the new Prime Minister – and with affiliations on the right wing of Turkey’s political spectrum and a long mistrust of the left and its growing influence in Turkey in recent years, he would not be overly sympathetic to Communist agitation, within Turkey or further a-field in the UGNR and Bucharest Pact. Though he remained deferential to the great Milli Şef and did not openly seek to undermine or change the strategic alliance with the Soviet Union.
This is correct, Peker was one of the leading people of the right wing of CHP back then, as opposed to Inonu himself. He was in favor of continuing single party regime and crackdown on the opposition. In fact in 1947 Inonu made a speech saying as the president he's obliged to be same distance to ruling party and the opposition which caused Peker's resignation as PM and from CHP.

By the way for the future of Turkey it's important to note the seat of presidency isn't holding a lot of power on paper, and Inonu (and before him Ataturk) wielded power through being the Ataturk and the Milli Sef respectively. Sorry that was after the 1960 constitution, along with the one time 7 year fixed term. In this constitution president still holds a considerable amount of power.

With their continuing close relationship, especially in naval and air force acquisitions and marine cooperation, the US picked up on some of this disquiet. In low-key discussions, the Dewey administration offered “whatever logistical, training or financial support” might be required for Turkey to “forestall local Communist insurgencies or takeovers” in its sprawling sphere of influence.
timelines converging

MAJGEN Diskoereko confidentially submitted a draft plan to divide the rest of the UGNR into cantons rather than accepting the pre-GW2 borders as sacrosanct. This plan would be developed further for presentation to the Cabinet some time in early 1947, but some of the key points are explained below. Proposed names and territorial allocations remained in draft form [and all subject to a more detailed map check):
  • The cantons would be of more or less equal population, around 7 million.
  • Italy would be further sub-divided into six cantons from the current three regions: Etruria, Napolitania, Magna Grecia, Savoy, Lombardy and Veneto-Romagna.
  • Rumelia includes East Thrace from Turkey (although this was quickly vetoed by Inönü), West Thrace and Thessaloniki from Greece, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Coastal Bulgaria and Black Forest from Bulgaria.
  • The rest north of that is South Slavia, except the Aegean coast would go to Ionia.
  • The proposals for cantons with Turkey were also vetoed by Inönü: current Turkish borders would be maintained, in part to ensure the clear predominance of the Motherland over all the other GNRs (whether based on current borders or a new canton format, or a combination).
  • Iranian South Azerbaijan, Qashqai and Turkmen parts of Iran (again excluding any current Turkish national territory, as vetoed by the President) would form South Turkistan, with the rest of Persia and Balochistan rounding out the central Asian GNRs.
  • Arabia would one canton, with Syria and Lebanon probably forming another (neither of those currently marked on the draft map below).
  • Guyana, Caribbean possessions and Western half of West Africa might form one canton and the Eastern half of West Africa, Equatorial Africa and Cameroons another.
Well this was a draft, and talks are ongoing with the Milli Sef :) There's some merit to my proposal. Also, coastal Syria and Lebanon should be in the Levanteke canton and internal Syria in Serhad.

The Soviet Army carried out the simultaneous roundup on 27 October of all persons in Soviet occupied Germany who were deemed essential to the Soviet missile and nuclear programs, then shipped them and their families by train to the USSR. They also stepped up internal security policing and military readiness across Germany as the food crisis worsened during the coming winter.
For humanitarian reasons, any fellow Comintern citizen doing any kind of skilled work or knowledge work is welcome to resettle with their families in warm and plentiful UGNR. For women and children no need to be skilled.

The Turkish nuclear program still lagged that of the others, even the US, considerably at this time, while Japanese research was in its infancy.
Maybe we should make some contact with the newly independent India, they'll also benefit a lot from a Thorium reactor. A joint program might be good for all.
 
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In the ‘main game’, the ruling CHP’s proportional share went backwards by about 6% after their overall provincial performance was better than the national polls had indicated. They were still able to achieve an absolute majority of seats: 255 of the 465, where a majority was 233. The Demokrats underperformed somewhat in the districts but ended up with a respectable take of seats.

The ground seems to have been carefully prepared to make sure the CHP couldn't actually lose this election, but the final result will have been a lot closer than I imagine the Milli Şef would have anticipated or hoped for. The rise of the far right in Istanbul will also be a concern (presumably Cennet was given explicit instructions not to interfere...). All things considered, this may not bode well for Turkey's democratic experiment.

The CHP’s Recep Peker would be the new Prime Minister – and with affiliations on the right wing of Turkey’s political spectrum and a long mistrust of the left and its growing influence in Turkey in recent years, he would not be overly sympathetic to Communist agitation, within Turkey or further a-field in the UGNR and Bucharest Pact.

There was no direct connection to Soviet influence that the Turkish security services could find but the development did sew the seeds of suspicion within Turkish government circles.

Despite some suggestions from Beria, Stalin refused to sanction any provocative activity either in Greece or the peripheral Bucharest Pact states of central Europe at this time. But elements within Soviet foreign and defence circles were happy to see indigenous communist political advances in some of the other former countries (now GNRs), especially Serbia, Bulgaria and Albania, during 1946.

For the first time, we may be seeing a few hairline cracks emerging in the Turkish-Soviet relationship?

MAJGEN Diskoereko confidentially submitted a draft plan to divide the rest of the UGNR into cantons rather than accepting the pre-GW2 borders as sacrosanct.

Dividing Italy I totally understand, but I can't help feeling that re-drawing the old national borders will just end up making a lot of people angry and resentful of the UGNR, leading to more internal difficulties, and far sooner than would otherwise happen.

The proposals for cantons with Turkey were also vetoed by Inönü: current Turkish borders would be maintained, in part to ensure the clear predominance of the Motherland over all the other GNRs (whether based on current borders or a new canton format, or a combination).

Yes, I'm sure Inönü has made the right call preserving the territorial integrity of Turkey itself.

Andrei Gromyko told a closed session of the League of Nations Security Council on 21 July that the Soviet Union would not accept the Baruch Plan to ban all further production of nuclear weapons.

There may be something here I've misunderstood? Isn't this the Soviets using a veto against their own proposal? o_O

On 27 September Maksim Litvinov, the Soviet ambassador to the United States, sent a long telegram to his boss, Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, describing US foreign and defence policy under Dewey’s Republicans as reflecting "imperialistic tendencies of monopolistic American capital" and "a striving for world economic and military supremacy".

Litvinov is being alarmist and factually inaccurate, at least in part. There is little evidence at this point of the US seeking world economic and military supremacy. Indeed, I would characterise the approach of Dewey's administration and hesitant and somewhat cautious.

The UK had reached the necessary theoretical level of nuclear research to develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 1946. But, due to a lack of coordination (and its great expense) had not yet commenced work on the nuclear reactor required to start that final stage of research. Due to intelligence reports of the imminent completion of a first German-Soviet weapon, this oversight was rectified on 31 December, but construction would take another eight and a half months to complete.

An unfortunate oversight, but the UK is still ahead of OTL. It's looking like 1947 for the Soviets, 1948 for the US, and probably 1949 for the UK?

The strategic rocket program, now relocated to the Soviet Union, was also well advanced, far beyond any other country at the time.

The US had already begun its own strategic rocket program by July 1946. As the year ended, initial development had been researched and theoretical work on a flying bomb had commenced.

The UK had not even begun any strategic rocket research at this point.

Yes, it does look like the Soviets have a really important lead here. I'd guess it might take the US and UK the best part of five years to catch up to where the Soviets are now!
 
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I suspect this is a genuine home grown movement. The Soviets 'want' turkey to rule the balkans, so they don't have to. They'll see it as a good indicator of post war communist support, and quietly demonstrate to Turkey they had nothing to do with it.
Yes, this is the case. In this universe Stalin is not getting his fingers sticky in the UGNR in particular. He may not be so squeamish about some of the bordering Bucharest Pact countries though as time goes on. And Beria, Molotov and some of the other players are already getting a little pushy at the lower levels. They don't have quite the same level of fraternal bond with Turkey as exists right at the top.
This made me think that the largest change to the Soviet Union TTL is probably the many, many millions of Soviets who are still alive here, having not died in the war, under nazi occupation or Soviet measures to keep the war effort going.

That's going to have a colossal impact on the entire union post war, in ways we really can't imagine.
To a certain extent, but the invasion did still dig deep into the SU and even further in some important places (such as Leningrad) than it did in OTL, though generally somewhat less than in OTL. I wouldn't be over-emphasising this difference per se, though it is partly valid.
The Soviet postion is probably along the lines of 'it would be nice if...' the balakns went communist. If the Turkish became communist etc

For the moment, the UGNR is super important to keep on side, and the demonstrably large support of socialism, and specifically leninism and stalinism in Turkey and the balkans is going to be taken as a good sign, and fertile ground to quietly nourish over the next few decades.

Patience is the name of the game here.
Per above, this is very much the in-universe vibe for now. Some below are keener to give the dialectic a bit more of a push, but this close to the war and with Uncle Joe still firmly in charge, they will remain in check in Central Europe. Now, elsewhere ... there will be plenty to keep the adventurists occupied!
The Soviets claim to be for the workers, but they have a top down system as bad as 19th century serfdom. Thanks

Soviets are railing against imperialism, but trying to form a powerful empire.
On a personal level I agree. And this will still have a similar 'dead hand' effect in-universe as it did in OTL. Don't see why that should be substantially different here.
Heh :D
not nitpicking, but for future reference in Turkish wikipedia it's possible to see population of cities at several points in time. Funny to see how the population balance was before the huge internal migration waves of the 60s and 90s.
I have tried vikipedia a bit but hadn't been able to find anything: it's great to have an in-house expert - thanks! :)
I love elections, I love this universe and I'm Turkish, so this has been a great episode for me!!! Thanks man!
Glad you enjoyed it! I'm happy it mainly passed the credibility test. And thanks too for Hikmet ;)
This is correct, Peker was one of the leading people of the right wing of CHP back then, as opposed to Inonu himself. He was in favor of continuing single party regime and crackdown on the opposition. In fact in 1947 Inonu made a speech saying as the president he's obliged to be same distance to ruling party and the opposition which caused Peker's resignation as PM and from CHP.

By the way for the future of Turkey it's important to note the seat of presidency isn't holding a lot of power on paper, and Inonu (and before him Ataturk) wielded power through being the Ataturk and the Milli Sef respectively. Sorry that was after the 1960 constitution, along with the one time 7 year fixed term. In this constitution president still holds a considerable amount of power.
How the left-right thing will play out in TTL may well vary from OTL, given the entirely different outlook of the UGNR and its satellite vs a more unitary single nationalist Turkish state.
timelines converging
Yes, this is one of those events where most of it doesn't happen here because of the UGNR-USSR continuing post-war bromance, but there is Turkey's still special relationship with the US, especially re marine exchange and training, naval purchases and aircraft, too. And with the US, it's not strictly dealing with the Allies, either.
Well this was a draft, and talks are ongoing with the Milli Sef :) There's some merit to my proposal. Also, coastal Syria and Lebanon should be in the Levanteke canton and internal Syria in Serhad.
Indeed. We'll work up the refined version for Cabinet. And then, some, all or none of it might be adopted.
For humanitarian reasons, any fellow Comintern citizen doing any kind of skilled work or knowledge work is welcome to resettle with their families in warm and plentiful UGNR. For women and children no need to be skilled.
;) Nod nod, wink wink, say no more! :D
Maybe we should make some contact with the newly independent India, they'll also benefit a lot from a Thorium reactor. A joint program might be good for all.
It may take a few years yet before they're organised enough for that. They're still trying to sort out their post-independence arrangements. And it may end up even messier than in OTL!
The ground seems to have been carefully prepared to make sure the CHP couldn't actually lose this election, but the final result will have been a lot closer than I imagine the Milli Şef would have anticipated or hoped for. The rise of the far right in Istanbul will also be a concern (presumably Cennet was given explicit instructions not to interfere...). All things considered, this may not bode well for Turkey's democratic experiment.
True on all counts. SITH's remit has definitely been steered exclusively to foreign areas (ie now non-UGNR, so still including the Bucharest Pact puppets). Peker, as a strong former Interior Minister who is now PM (and without having to contend with demonic forces). Peker may also be himself disposed towards fomenting a far-right minority to counter the Communists (of all stripes). It could all get quite untidy in a few years time, when coupled with possible rekindled nationalist agitation within the wider UGNR.
For the first time, we may be seeing a few hairline cracks emerging in the Turkish-Soviet relationship?
It will be little things at first and may not necessarily develop into a break in the near-mid term. But there's new political reality developing and the dimming glow of the wartime partnership can't remain at full brightness - on either side - forever.
Dividing Italy I totally understand, but I can't help feeling that re-drawing the old national borders will just end up making a lot of people angry and resentful of the UGNR, leading to more internal difficulties, and far sooner than would otherwise happen.
This is a thought that occupies Inonu: could something perhaps designed to help break some of these feelings down instead end up fomenting them, in more than just Italy? Eiter because minorities feel they have been mis-allocated, or see some getting more local autonomy and feel they have missed out, sparking further fracturing? This and other pros and cons can all be debated in the 1947 Cabinet meeting that will consider this proposal.
Yes, I'm sure Inönü has made the right call preserving the territorial integrity of Turkey itself.
Yes, I think he'd keep that at least. The rest - time will tell.
There may be something here I've misunderstood? Isn't this the Soviets using a veto against their own proposal? o_O
No I don't think so, the Baruch proposal was the US version. And now that the Soviets are just about to produce their first nuke and they know the Allies know, they're all for nuclear weapon development! I've played it as a cynical diplomatic ploy on their behalf.
Litvinov is being alarmist and factually inaccurate, at least in part. There is little evidence at this point of the US seeking world economic and military supremacy. Indeed, I would characterise the approach of Dewey's administration and hesitant and somewhat cautious.
Yes he is a bit. In part, it was because I used an adapted version of what his OTL counterpart said. But they were wont to exaggerate anyway, and he will (from, er, 'reliable sources') have started to pick up teasers that Dewey's administration seems to be cautiously moving away from the largely 'isolationist lite' foreign policy Taft had been advocating and the 'do-nothing' prevarication of the Dewey's first couple of years. And he has been big on arming up from the start, too, plus the restarted nuclear program. The drowsy giant may be wakening at last ...
An unfortunate oversight, but the UK is still ahead of OTL. It's looking like 1947 for the Soviets, 1948 for the US, and probably 1949 for the UK?
Yairs, but though there will be a gap, it may not end up proving critical, as the Soviets are unlikely to want to invade France any time soon. Japan though ...
Yes, it does look like the Soviets have a really important lead here. I'd guess it might take the US and UK the best part of five years to catch up to where the Soviets are now!
Probably, but in the broader sweep, it's not that much time, and at present it's a very slow accumulation of Hiroshima-style A-bombs and the equivalent of short-medium range ballistic missiles. As we saw in the Q&D2 game, even a monopoly of nukes and a large stockpile was not enough to guarantee victory in-game. And in-universe, there's actually world opprobrium to contend with as well now the game itself is over!

To All: thanks for the continued support, next episode coming up soon, where (among other things) we'll find out how the French elections under the new (in-game a little modified) Fourth Republic constitution have gone and developments in the UK and Palestine. After that, the last 1946 chapter will cover Asia, including India.
 
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Chapter 256: France, the United Kingdom and the Middle East – July to December 1946
Chapter 256: France, the United Kingdom and the Middle East – July to December 1946
French Elections: Arrangements and Alignments

The latest French general election was held on 2 July 1946. The legislature of the [ATL] Fourth Republic consisted of the National Assembly (627 lower house seats, elected by proportional representation) and the Council of the Republic (320 upper house seats) elected by proportional representation in ten departments (32 seats per department) and serving six-year terms. [In OTL communes were involved as well and there were more departments, while one-sixth of the Council was elected by the National Assembly, but I’ve ruled this out as too complicated, so the ATL Constitution differs here. Election for Council broken into ten equal departments, each with individual swings.]

The Assembly would elect the Prime Minister and Government. The Council did not have the power to make laws, which was the responsibility of the National Assembly. The council was mainly consultative, and bills were only given a single reading at the council before being passed. However, it did share responsibility should the need arose to amend the constitution in matters regarding the election of the President of the Republic. A formal notice to the council was required to declare war.

For the 1946 elections, the Giraudist Coalition (Action Française and the conservative Fédération Républicaine) stayed together.

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The Giraudist Coalition Party leaders in the July 1946 legislative election: Henri d'Astier, AF (left) and Louis Marin, FR (right).

This time centre-right MRP stood alone as a ‘middle ground’ alternative, hoping to secure the balance of power.

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Georges Bidault, the MRP leader at the July 1946 legislative election.

On the left, the Radical Socialists came in from the cold and joined the SFIO and Communists to form the Second Popular Front, hoping to at least gain enough seats to break the Giraudist’s razor thin majority in the Assembly and also to force the presidential election into a second round. In both cases, they hoped to lure the MRP into a coalition government in the Assembly and their support for their candidate in a second presidential round.

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The main Leftist opposition leaders in July 1946, from left to right: Guy Mollet, SFIO; Pierre Mendès France, Radicals and Maurice Thorez, PCF.

The President would be elected directly [per the outcome in Chapter 252, a departure from OTL, where it was an indirect appointment, via voting in both chambers combined, who then presided over the Council]. The President would remain as commander in Chief of the Armed Forces and act as Head of State, including swearing in Prime Ministers. Or dismissing them if they suffered a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly and calling on a new leader to see if they could form a government [a little like in a typical constitutional monarchy].

Each bloc advanced their agreed Presidential candidates. If one failed to win more than 50% in the first round of voting, a run-off election between the top two would be held subsequently.

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From left to right: Henri Honoré Giraud (b. 18 January 1879) AF (Giraudist Coalition); Auguste Champetier de Ribes (b. 30 July 1882), MRP; Vincent Jules Auriol (b. 27 August 1884), SFIO (Second Popular Front).

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French Elections: Campaign

As a reminder, the party standings after the last legislative election for the constitutional assembly were as follows.

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With the political 1946 realignment, this left the three groups in the following position as the campaign began.

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Once more, the French electorate had been called to the ballot boxes, this time for the first time under the constitution of the brand new Fourth Republic and at a pivotal time in French post-war history.

The new Assembly had been increased to 627 seats, so a working majority would be 314 seats. On the left, the campaign saw significant raw swings to the votes of the Radicals and Communists, but this came partly at the expense of the SFIO. The MRP’s play for the middle did not pay off, with the third largest single party in the assembly suffering a moderate swing away. Marin’s Conservatives gained ground, while the Giraudist AF lost a little.

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French Election Results

The voting for the Lower House resulted in the following national outcome:

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Once applied to the total votes and converted into a proportional allocation of seats, this once again gave the Giraudists the very narrowest of majorities after an overall 0.2 swing away. The Leftists had in total gained 2.7%, but had been weighed down by the poor showing of the SFIO. The Communists now became the largest party in the Second Popular Front and the fourth largest in the Assembly, after the centrist MRP. Henri d’Astier would become the first Prime Ministers of the Fourth Republic.

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After the results from the Departments were counted, in the 320 seat upper chamber the Giraudist Coalition again managed to eke out a very small majority (161 seats against a combined opposition of the Second Popular Front and the MRP of 159).

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The Presidential vote was the last to be tallied. Would the people endorse the Free French wartime leader and ‘father’ of the Fourth Republic? Or would they send the ballot to a second round, given one of the opposition candidates a chance to balance the narrow Giraudist majorities in the legislature? [For this election, the combined faction results from the National Assembly were taken as the baseline, then swings rolled for, meaning Giraud started dead even on 50%, with maximum presidential swings of up to +/-15% possible for each candidate.]

In a larger voter response than for the assembly elections, both Giraud and the Second Popular Front’s representative Vincent Auriol (SFIO) got healthy support in their favour. But again, the MRP underperformed, meaning Giraud secured a clear majority of 51.4% of the votes cast in the first round and would remain President, no longer provisional but now the inaugural President of the Fourth Republic. He had so far narrowly defied reformist pressures in post-war France and would continue to strongly pursue French interests as a major player within the Western Alliance.

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---xxx---

France: Post-Election Events

Ho Chi Minh left Paris on 14 September after a visit seeking French and (via their embassy in Paris) American assistance for their independence struggle. The results of that visit will be covered in a later update.

Otherwise, the months following the elections were absorbed by Giraud and d’Astier establishing their new fully fledged administration, using the financial support provided by the US to rebuild their economy and repairing the war damage that still remained heavy across much of north-western France.

The new government maintained cordial enough relations with the Soviets and made a modest outreach to the UGNR, though the loss of former French colonial territories still grated on French nerves. French secret services began to build up clandestine network in many of those non-Middle-eastern territories among sympathetic Francophile elements present, but no direct action was being taken.

Giraud insisted on a rebuilding of the French Armed Forces to the extent that a currently constrained budget would allow. And he ensured France remained firmly within the Allied orbit and began courting the few remaining continental nations that were still in the Allies to see if further common economic and political ties might be forged.

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Palestine and the Middle East

The King David Hotel in Jerusalem was bombed on 22 July by the Zionist terrorist group Irgun, collapsing a section of the building and killing 91 people. At the headquarters of the British Mandate for Palestine. The 91 dead were made up of 28 British nationals, 41 Palestinian Arabs, 17 Jewish residents, and five hotel guests from other nations. Members of Irgun had smuggled the bomb material into the hotel in seven milk cans and claimed later that they had telephoned a warning which had been ignored by the Chief Secretary, Sir John Shaw.

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Aftermath of the King David Hotel bombing, 22 July 1946.

On 31 July the Morrison-Grady Plan was proposed by Herbert Morrison of Britain and Henry F. Grady of the US. It provided for the division of Palestine into three districts, with 17% of the land set aside for up to 100,000 Jewish immigrants, 40% for Palestinian Arabs, and 43% for a neutral zone under British control. The plan was endorsed by President Dewey and Prime Minister Attlee but Jewish and Arab groups both rejected the proposal.

Isma'il Sidqi resigned as Prime Minister of Egypt on 8 December following a failure to guarantee that the Sudan would remain part of the territory administered from Cairo upon full independence of the Anglo-Egyptian Sudan. He was succeeded by Mahmoud Fahmy El Nokrashy Pasha for his second term, his first term was from 26 February 1945 – 17 February 1946 when he came to power after the murder of Ahmad Mahir Pasha. Nokrashy Pasha was a member of the Saadist Institutional Party (SIP) which supported a liberal monarchist programme. He was also a member of the secret apparatus of the Wafd Party, Egypt's then main nationalist party.

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Mahmoud Fahmy El Nokrashy Pasha (b. 26 April 1888).

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The United Kingdom

In a speech at Zürich on 19 September, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill proposed what would eventually become the European Community. Churchill suggested "a remedy, which, if generously and spontaneously adopted by a great majority of the people of many lands, would, as if by a miracle, transform the whole scene and make Europe as free and happy as Switzerland is today... We must build a kind of United States of Europe."

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Churchill speaks on the need for future European cooperation in Zürich, 19 July 1946.

In general, the UK continued its atomic research. Internationally, it was preoccupied with the crisis in Palestine and trying to help broker a viable post-colonial arrangement for India. Otherwise, limited rationing continued and Attlee tried to maintain the UK’s standing as the leader of the Allies while overseeing a rapid demobilisation of the British Army and exploring de-colonisation opportunities. They avoided any specific involvement in relation to Japan and the communist insurgency in China. Relations with the Soviets remained frosty, but did not deteriorate any further, while low-key cooperation with the UGNR continued.

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Almost two years after the end of GW2, the UK was still demobilising. Here, former RAF members march out of a demobilisation centre in Lancashire, July 1946.
 
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He may not be so squeamish about some of the bordering Bucharest Pact countries though as time goes on.

The entire point of the border buffer states is to soak up any and all tensions between the two great powers, so yes, hopefully that remains the case for the next 50 years. If the next leader is sensible, this will be the only place in Europe that they may turn the screws, with everywhere (and there as well) else courted with diplomacy and bringing the comintern more closely together.

They may be helped on that front by:

what would eventually become the European Community

Unless this starts properly in the 1990s ish, there's going to be rather large socialist influences in this organisation from the very begining. Very interesting. Especially as France and the European Comintern have a lot to gain from being a single market.

If we can get a single market running from Spain to the Soviets and down through the UGNR, that's going to be a huge trading and economic bloc.
 
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In a speech at Zürich on 19 September, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill proposed what would eventually become the European Community. Churchill suggested "a remedy, which, if generously and spontaneously adopted by a great majority of the people of many lands, would, as if by a miracle, transform the whole scene and make Europe as free and happy as Switzerland is today... We must build a kind of United States of Europe."
UGNR is further along this path, heh
 
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French backs right or left with the middle losing ground. Palestine will be bloody. Thank you
Yes, Palestine is unlikely to end up being anything but messy, though we shall see how closely it tracks OTL, given the different ATL regional dynamics.
The entire point of the border buffer states is to soak up any and all tensions between the two great powers, so yes, hopefully that remains the case for the next 50 years. If the next leader is sensible, this will be the only place in Europe that they may turn the screws, with everywhere (and there as well) else courted with diplomacy and bringing the comintern more closely together.
Not sure if it will be 50 years, but both sides would be hoping it lasts for a good number of years yet. Next Soviet leader 'sensible'? And even if so, given the political room to exhibit such? Ever and always a very optimistic view of Soviet power dynamics and leadership abilities! :D
They may be helped on that front by:


Unless this starts properly in the 1990s ish, there's going to be rather large socialist influences in this organisation from the very begining. Very interesting. Especially as France and the European Comintern have a lot to gain from being a single market.

If we can get a single market running from Spain to the Soviets and down through the UGNR, that's going to be a huge trading and economic bloc.
I think the EC Churchill is hinting at here does not include the Soviets at all! For now, it's probably the UK, France and Benelux, hoping that Eire, Norway and maybe Sweden might be lured in (and an economic, not yet political grouping). Pretty small bickies without Germany in it, let alone Italy or Spain, both currently in other spheres. But over time, Churchill might be hoping either the UGNR, Turkey or at least some of its Bucharest Pact satellites might be roped in. Not any time soon, though.

Trade between the Warsaw and Bucharest Pact blocs will no doubt continue to thrive for now, but an EC-style union not likely any time soon either.
UGNR is further along this path, heh
It is, with a more political union aspect already!

To All: as is often the case, maybe not so much interest in France, but next comes the blockbuster Asia update. No more major elections, but plenty of developments, events and diplomatic manoeuvrings! At this stage Asia, rather than Europe, is the more dynamic and dangerous hotbed of great power rivalry.
 
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Chapter 257: Asia – July to December 1946
Chapter 257: Asia – July to December 1946

India

To recap, as India tried to work through its tortuous internal post-independence negotiations for new constitutional arrangements, in April 1946 the UK had informally suggest the idea of partition into separate nations. The predominantly Hindu provinces would become the Commonwealth of India, while the mostly Muslim provinces would become Pakistan. The idea had been well received by the Muslim League, but not the Hindu majority as represented mainly by the Congress Party and in May, the Congress leaders rejected a Muslim League proposal for an independent State of Pakistan. Opinion remained deadlocked through June 1946.

Jawaharlal Nehru, the Congress President, held a press conference in Bombay on 10 July declaring that while the Congress had agreed to partake in the Constituent Assembly, it reserved the right to modify any solution proposed. Meeting in Bombay on 27 July, the Executive Council of the Muslim League voted unanimously to reject the idea of a single unified Indian national state.

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Muhammad Ali Jinnah (left) leader of the Muslim League and Jawaharlal Nehru, leader of the All India Congress.

A "Direct Action Day" was held on 16 August. It was intended as a peaceful protest in favour of creating a separate Muslim nation of "Pakistan", rather than having a Hindu-majority government in an independent British India. The protests turned into rioting that killed more than 10,000 people in and around Calcutta (Kolkata). Muslim League leader Muhammad Ali Jinnah had set a day "for the Muslim Nation to resort to direct action to achieve Pakistan and assert their just rights to vindicate their honour" after the League decided not to participate in a government with the Hindu Indian National Congress led by Mahatma Gandhi.

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Rioting in Calcutta (Kolkata), August 1946.

On 2 September an interim Indian government was inaugurated to supervise the transition to new national arrangements. Jawaharlal Nehru as acting prime minister of an Executive Council. After negotiations over the next few weeks, the Muslim League agreed to join the Interim Government of India, accepting five of the 12 seats on the Executive Council, reversing an earlier decision not to participate. One member of the Council was Liaquat Ali Khan, Finance Minister, a key leader of the movement advocating an independent Pakistan.

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Liaquat Ali Khan (b. 1 October 1895), an influential member of the Muslim League and a determined pro-Pakistan opponent of a unitary Hindu-Muslim Indian state.

Riots on 24 October, in which Hindu mobs targeted Muslim families, began in the Indian state of Bihar. Estimates of the number of deaths before the riots ended on 11 November range from 2,000 to 30,000.

A four-day conference had been held in New Delhi with Jawaharlal Nehru of the Congress Party, Muslim League president Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and Sikh leader Sardar Baldev Singh concluded on 6 December. This final attempt at agreeing a post-independence settlement of India as a single nation failed.

Three days later, the first Constituent Assembly of India convened, with 323 of the 389 members present. The session was boycotted by the 76 Muslim League members. The Muslim League opposed the formation of such an Assembly until the adoption of the resolution demanding a separate Islamic state. Even then, the Muslim League demanded that two Constituent Assemblies be formed, one each for the two independent states that it had proposed.

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Jawaharlal Nehru moves the resolution for an independent sovereign Republic of India in the Constituent Assembly in New Delhi, 9 December 1946.

Two days later, Rajendra Prasad was elected the first President of the Constituent Assembly on 10 December. Prasad (b. 3 December 1884) was an Indian politician, lawyer, Indian independence activist, journalist and scholar He was a major Indian National Congress leader from the region of Bihar and Maharashtra. His task was to supervise the formulation of the new Indian constitution – but how would the Muslim League respond to any unilateral Congress-led process? The issue would drag over, unresolved, into 1947.

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Rajendra Prasad.

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The Philippines

A complex set of secret negotiations between Japan and the US on the future of Asia and the US-Japan relationship had been in progress in recent months. The first public ‘announceable’ outcome of these US-Japan negotiations concerned the sore point of the Philippines, formerly a US protectorate and assigned to Japanese control at the 1944 Geneva Peace Conference. Japan agreed to release the Philippines as an independent country with a self-determined and elected government.

A joint Japanese-US Commission was formed to administer this process, under the auspices of a binding LNSC Resolution, approved unanimously on 4 July 1946. The Republic of the Philippines was born, with Manuel Roxas inaugurated as its first interim President, pending the approval of a new constitution and elections.

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Manuel Roxas being sworn in as President of the newly ‘independent’ Republic of the Philippines, 4 July 1946.

Roxas had an interesting background. Having enrolled prior to World War II as an officer in the reserves, Roxas was made liaison officer between the Commonwealth government and the USAFFE headquarters of General Douglas MacArthur. Roxas accompanied President Quezon to Corregidor where he supervised the destruction of Philippine currency to prevent its capture by the Japanese. When Quezon left Corregidor, Roxas went to Mindanao to direct the resistance there. It was prior to Quezon's departure that he was made executive secretary and designated as successor to the presidency in case Quezon or Vice President Sergio Osmeña were captured or killed.

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Manuel Roxas y Acuña (b. 1 January 1892), interim 5th President of the Philippines from 4 July 1946.

On 3 January 1942, President Quezon presented General MacArthur with a secret guaranty of $500,000. The payment was related to the Filipino concept of utang na loob, where one offers a lavish gift in order to create a reciprocal obligation from the individual who receives the gift. Through the payment was legal, it was questionable from an ethical perspective, and MacArthur always kept the payment secret. Roxas was one of the few people who knew of the payment.

Roxas was captured in April 1942 by the Japanese invasion forces and later became chief advisor to the collaborationist government of José P. Laurel. The American journalist Richard Rovere described Roxas as typical of the Filipino hacendado class (the wealthy owners of the hacienda estates) who sought to opportunistically ingratiate themselves with whatever power ruled the Philippines.

During the Japanese occupation, Roxas was in charge of the rice procurement agency for the collaborationist government from 1943 onward, which helped Japan exploit its the Philippines by gathering up the rice harvests to feed the Japanese forces in Southeast Asia. The ruthless policies of confiscating rice harvests pushed many of the Filipino peasantry to the brink of starvation and made Roxas into one of the most hated men in the Philippines.

Roxas had served in the Laurel government until this appointment. General Douglas MacArthur persuaded the Dewey Administration to support Roxas as a compromise candidate, given their previous ties and a dubious declaration that Roxas had in fact led a dual life as a resistance member during the war (perhaps due to blackmail threats from Roxas).

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General Douglas MacArthur (right) greets President Manuel Roxas of the Philippines on his arrival in Manila for the Independence Ceremonies, July 1946.

In OTL, Roxas surrendered to American forces at Baguio in April 1945. After his capture, MacArthur announced that Roxas was really a resistance fighter. It appears that MacArthur was blackmailed by Roxas, who threatened to reveal the guarantee he accepted in 1942.

Roxas would agree that Japanese bases in the Philippines would be maintained on a renewable 10-year lease, while US investment would return and the Philippines would join the League of Nations.

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China, Japan and US Diplomacy

In July 1946, the Chinese Communist insurgency in Japanese-occupied China raged on, with neither side gaining local supremacy in the areas being contested. Meanwhile, Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China was busy consolidating its newly expanded boundaries following its earlier re-absorption of the former ‘warlord sates’ of Guangxi, Yunnan and Xibei San Ma.

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A reminder of the situation in China as at the end of June 1946. Tibet remained independent and generally Allied-aligned but not a formal member of the Allies, while Sinkiang was more Soviet-aligned but not a puppet regime nor member of the Soviet Bloc. Mengkukuo had absorbed Japanese-aligned southern Mongolia.

The US was involved in the ‘Chinese Questions’ on two separate fronts at this time. First, they had been attempting to broker an agreement between Mao and Chiang, building on their current non-aggression pact and the desire of both to see occupied areas of China return to it. Partly complementing this was the secret US-Japan dialogue of 1946 where, in return for liberalisation and concessions over the Philippines, Japan wanted assistance to stop the Chinese Communist insurgency and backing against Soviet ‘aggression and interference” in Mongolia and Korea.

Of course, Chiang wanted to absorb the rest of occupied China back into the Republic. And though he currently maintained the non-aggression pact with Mao, the two were also long-standing enemies and knew it would almost certainly come to armed confrontation between the two at some point in the not-too-distant future. So the Dewey Administration, broadly in line with the nascent Dewey Doctrine, sought to determine its own preferred outcome that would serve US interests without getting too entangled in an a potential quagmire.

The US wanted to see Communist expansion resisted but without getting its hands too dirty in the process. In search of partners and/or proxies in this, both China and Japan were seen as key potential front-line opponents of Soviet and Communist Chinese designs in Asia on a number of fronts. But how could the mutual antagonism between China and Japan be reconciled and the elephant in the room of Occupied China be acknowledged and dealt with?

It was at this point that MacArthur, having helped to ‘solve’ the Philippines issue, advanced a realpolitik solution that might resolve the quandary. The so-called MacArthur Plan would remain secret through the second half of 1946 but formed the basis of discussions initially between the US and China and separately in the US-Japan negotiations. In essence, he proposed that the US provide material support to China, to enable it to prepare for a later offensive against the Mao’s communist state in Shanxi. Without having to directly engage each other, this would allow Japan to defeat the current insurgency.

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General MacArthur visits Chiang Kai-shek in Nanjing, August 1946. He was there ostensibly to announce a military cooperation deal, but behind the scenes conducted negotiations to promote his ‘MacArthur Plan’ for a US brokered China-Japan settlement.

Following this ‘demonstration of good faith’ between the two former adversaries, the US would then broker talks between China and Japan to reach a settlement. The working model was that China would first annex Shanxi into the Republic, then the US would broker talks between China and Japan aimed at seeing the territories occupied by Japan since 1937 returned to Chinese rule. Japan would receive guarantees from China, as ‘witnessed’ by the US, than their puppet states of Manchukuo and Mengkukuo would remain within the Japanese sphere as puppet states.

If eventually implemented, the current gradual relaxation of US trade sanctions on Japan would eventually be transformed into a ‘most favoured nation’ economic agreement, breaking Japan’s isolation from the west and helping to ensure the resource imports it had originally gone to war over. It would also help Japan extract itself from an increasingly bloody and unsustainable occupation in China that no longer seemed to serve much gainful purpose. The Emperor and his new reformist government would have to either persuade or force any resistant Army factions that may be determined to continue its old expansionist policies in China.

But that was an argument that was getting increasingly easy to make. Especially as the IJA would still have and important role to play confronting the Soviets in the vast borders stretching from Mongolia through to the Pacific coast in eastern Manchuria and other hot spots in Korea and Vietnam. Chiang could deal with the Communist insurgency that would likely continue even if Mao was forced out of his bases in Shanxi.

As a side matter, the US would agree to work with Japan over the future of Korea, which was coming under increasing Soviet-back Communist threat. There was also the question of Vietnam’s future as armed conflict intensified there, which the US, the USSR and France were also involved to varying extents.

On 24 August the House of Representatives of Japan approved the nation's new Constitution by a vote of 421–8. With Emperor Hirohito’s support, the Conservative-Liberal coalition government elected in April 1946 was consolidating its power and looking to reap the benefits of the post-war ‘warm peace’ in Asia and rapprochement with the US in particular and the West more widely. Their aim was to retain Japanese influence, build trade and prosperity, guarantee key resource imports (especially oil), modernise its economy, extract itself from expensive and unsustainable occupations and counter-insurgencies and reorient military preparedness towards confrontation with the Soviet Union – a key point to assuage IJA concerns over the potential peace deal with China.

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The Japanese Diet meets to approve the new constitution, 24 August 1946.

On 30 August the United States signed an agreement to sell (for $20,000,000) surplus aircraft to the government of Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China, effectively ruining separate negotiations being conducted by US representatives between Chiang and Communist Party leader Mao Zedong. The developing Dewey doctrine and the specifics of the MacArthur Plan had made this parallel negotiation essentially redundant, though of course Mao was not explicitly aware of the full reasons for this US policy choice.

Nonetheless, the Constituent Assembly of the Republic of China convened at Nanjing on 15 November with hopes that a new constitution could be created that would be agreeable to both the Nationalist and Communist parties. If unity could be achieved through peaceful means, Chiang would be happy as it may be some time before he would be ready to move himself. Also, he wanted to show first he had tried to reach out diplomatically; and would want a plausible pretext for any future action against Mao.

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The National Assembly of the Republic of China held in Nanjing, November 1946.

In the event, the Communists boycotted the meeting, which drafted a constitution for the Republic of China. Zhou Enlai departed Nanjing and returned to Yan'an on 19 November, bringing the negotiations between the Communists and the Kuomintang to an end.

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Communist delegation head Zhou Enlai (b. 5 March 1898) in Nanjing, November 1946.

The Communist insurgency against Japan in China continued, Chiang prepared for whatever may come in the future and Japan considered the MacArthur Plan – and what additional quid pro quos they may wish in return for such a major cession of territory in mainland China.

One idea there was to demand the retention of the island of Taiwan as a Japanese administered territory and base, but by the end of 1946 this had not yet been broached as part of the intricate proxy three-way negotiations currently being conducted via US ‘shuttle diplomacy’, in which both State officials and General MacArthur were deeply involved.

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Korea

On 29 August the Workers Party of North Korea was created by a merger of the Communist Party and the New People's Party, with Kim Tu-bong as chairman, and Kim Il-sung and Chu Yong-ha as vice chairmen.

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the news and propaganda organ for the Communists in Korea was established on 6 December, broadcasting mainly into northern Korea from Soviet territory just beyond the border with Japanese Korea. Its stated mission was "to turn all members of society into juche communist revolutionaries unconditionally loyal to the Great Leader".

Another outcome from the US-Japan ‘Rapprochement Discussions’ was the establishment of a Korean Interim Legislative Assembly, announced on 1 July 1946. The conservative Korea Democratic Party (KDP) opposed its existence due to many of its leaders being excluded. However, the party did participate in the elections, unlike the left-wing parties, which simply ignored it; the Communists, Syngman Rhee and Kim Gu all boycotted the elections.

In September 1946, thousands of labourers and peasants rose up against the Japanese military government, following a Communist Party of Korea sponsored general strike. This rising was quickly defeated and failed to prevent the elections.

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Police in Daegu attacked Koreans demonstrating against Japanese domination following GW2, marking the beginning of the autumn uprising.

The first meeting of the Assembly occurred on 12 December in Seoul, with 45 members appointed by Japan and 45 elected ones, most of whom were right-wing. This exercise was intended to be the first step in a plan to grant Korea limited autonomy. Its actual practical purpose was to assuage US concerns about residual Japanese imperialism and to pave the way for more plausible US public support for an anti-Communist effort (still political rather than military at this stage) by Japan in Korea to protect its ‘freedom’. For Japan, it was yet another concession and demonstration of ‘good faith’ that continued to promote the diplomatic thaw with the US and provide another bargaining chip in the continuing negotiations.

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Vietnam

Ho Chi Minh left Paris on 14 September after being unable to get France to agree to support its independence struggle. There was some speculation that the US may have exerted pressure on the French Giraudist government to do so, due to their Rapprochement Discussions with Japan and a growing anti-Communist sentiment in the West. This would have meshed with the then post-colonial French mindset anyway, where they were concentrating on rebuilding at home rather than getting entangled in any conflict over their former colonies.

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Ho Chi Minh being greeted in Paris, July 1946. His mission to gain further western (French and US) support for his independence fight against Japan ultimately proved fruitless. [We won't worry here about him being pictured with Bidault, the OTL French PM at the time. Perhaps he is meeting with a parliamentary group.]

During his stay, Ho had visited the American Embassy in a fruitless attempt to obtain assistance from the United States. He would instead turn to the Soviet Union and began to receive aid from them over the coming months, as the former US OSS training teams in Vietnam were permanently withdrawn.

On 23 September, the Japanese-controlled Vietnamese puppet government issued an order authorising the arrest of any Asian resident in the south of Vietnam whose identity papers were not in order. Local police and the Japanese Army arrested more than 50,000 Vietnamese and conscripted them to work in the area's rubber plantations.

A minor incident on 20 November set in motion a chain of events that would lead to an all-out independence war in Vietnam. A Japanese patrol boat seized a Chinese junk as it sailed into the harbour of Haiphong, smuggling a cargo of gasoline. The Viet Minh guerrilla army captured the Japanese boat and its crew and the IJA responded with an ultimatum that would expire two days later with deadly consequences.

As a Japanese heavy cruiser sat in Haiphong harbour on 23 November, the Viet Minh were informed that it had two hours to withdraw its troops from the port and from the Japanese and Chinese sections of the city, or face bombardment. At 9:45 the attack was ordered to teach the Viet Minh a “hard lesson”. The cruiser’s 8-inch shells struck the city, killing Viet Minh soldiers and civilians.

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The port of Haiphong burns after being shelled by the IJN, 23 November 1946.

The Battle of Hanoi began at 8:03 pm local time on 19 December, when electrical power to the city of Hanoi was cut off as a force of 30,000 Việt Minh soldiers launched an attack against IJA units in the city following a Japanese demand that they disarm. Co-ordinated by General Võ Nguyên Giáp, the attackers used mortars, artillery and machine guns in a battle that failed, but began the First Vietnamese War.

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Viet Minh soldiers fighting at Hàng Đậu Street in Hanoi, December 1946.

This now threatened to become an expensive and unwelcome distraction for Japan, especially as they tried to normalise relations with the West and demonstrate a more engaged global approach. As the issue was broached during the ongoing US discussions, it was unclear whether Japan might receive support as part of a Dewey Doctrine inspired anti-Communist effort, or come under both Western and Soviet pressure to disengage and allow Vietnam and the rest of Indochina to determine its own future. This was another issue that would be tackled in earnest in early 1947.

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Local Vietnamese national guard troops loyal to the pro-Japanese puppet regime, using a mix of local and Japanese equipment, prepare to go into battle in support of the IJA near Hanoi, December 1946.

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Indonesia

A truce between Dutch and Indonesian armies was signed at 6:00 pm on 14 October, with the Republic of Indonesia and the remaining colonies of the Dutch East Indies co-existing separately.

On 15 November the Linggajati Agreement was initialled by Vice-President Sutan Sjahrir and former Netherlands Prime Minister Willem Schermerhorn.

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The Linggadjati Agreement being initialled on 15 November 1946.

Mediated by Lord Killearn of the United Kingdom, the agreement provided for a ceasefire, and control of Java, Sumatra and the Kalimantan portion of Borneo by the Republic of Indonesia, while the colonial administration of the Dutch East Indies would continue on Sulawesi, the Lesser Sunda Islands, West New Guinea, and the Maluku Islands.

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The form of the federal United States of Indonesia agreed at Linggadjati.

Both sides had made concessions. The republicans committed to the establishment of a federal Indonesian state, while the Dutch conceded the inclusion of Sumatra in the Republic of Indonesia as well as Java. The final agreement was for the USI to be a "sovereign and equal partner in a union", although the Dutch succeeded in persuading the republicans to agree to the Dutch monarch being the head of this union. Both sides were unhappy with the agreement, which did not bode well for its longevity. But it held, at least until the end of 1946.

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Soviet Interests in Asia

Stalin’s equivalent of the US ‘pivot to Asia’ during 1946 had it becoming increasingly involved in a number of areas. First, it continued to cement its influence with and military dominance in the Mongolian Peoples Republic, or ‘North Mongolia’ as it was becoming colloquially known as in the West. This was complemented by clandestine support for Communist China, though it was hard to do much of substance due to Mao’s isolation and absence of any common border or sea access.

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Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov conducting some 'Asian diplomatic outreach' with visitors to Moscow, September 1946.

And in Korea, as we have seen Soviet support for Kim Il-Sung and the Korean communists was increasing, including the covert supply of weapons into northern Korea and the training of Korean Communist militias over the border in the Soviet Union. The plan forming there was to use a mixture of agitation, armed struggle and the move to increasing Korean autonomy to carve out a pro-Soviet Communist state in the north of the country. Which might even provide a launching point for a take-over of the entire Korean peninsula in due course. In the meantime, the more mischief that could be created for Japan, the better.

Similarly, in Vietnam, Ho’s rejection at the hands of the French and its previous supporter the US had provided an opportunity the Soviets were more than happy to take advantage of. Clandestine arms shipments were soon being planned for infiltration in northern Vietnam in particular, where the Viet Minh were strongest, and Indochina more generally. The aim was to establish another new Communist outpost, this time in South East Asia.

And finally, the Soviets continued to woo the friendly government in Sinkiang, who were starting to get more concerned about what Chiang’s ROC may do next. There had been a pause in KMT expansionism since the first half of 1946, but this did not mean Chiang’s dreams of fully re-uniting China were finished. Might he make a play for Sinkiang next? This was a battle the Soviets were less willing to become directly involved in, but both open and clandestine options were available (depending on how much they wished to risk antagonising China) and diplomatic influence, including in the LNSC, was also available.
 
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I am amazed that India (both in OTL and TTL) have not had greater divisions along cultural/linguistic lines. Is the Hindu/Muslim division so great that everything else is secondary and minor? Thank you
 
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Yes, Palestine is unlikely to end up being anything but messy, though we shall see how closely it tracks OTL, given the different ATL regional dynamics.
I mean it's been peaceful for centuries up until just a couple of decades ago game time; just saying :D

Two days later, Rajendra Prasad was elected the first President of the Constituent Assembly on 10 December. Prasad (b. 3 December 1884) was an Indian politician, lawyer, Indian independence activist, journalist and scholar He was a major Indian National Congress leader from the region of Bihar and Maharashtra. His task was to supervise the formulation of the new Indian constitution – but how would the Muslim League respond to any unilateral Congress-led process? The issue would drag over, unresolved, into 1947.
I wonder how many nations will come out of the subcontinent and with which borders

A reminder of the situation in China as at the end of June 1946. Tibet remained independent and generally Allied-aligned but not a formal member of the Allies, while Sinkiang was more Soviet-aligned but not a puppet regime nor member of the Soviet Bloc. Mengkukuo had absorbed Japanese-aligned southern Mongolia.
UGNR makes attempts to accept our brethren at East Turkestan to join UGNR for greater prosperity and peace, if they wish so

Both sides had made concessions. The republicans committed to the establishment of a federal Indonesian state, while the Dutch conceded the inclusion of Sumatra in the Republic of Indonesia as well as Java. The final agreement was for the USI to be a "sovereign and equal partner in a union", although the Dutch succeeded in persuading the republicans to agree to the Dutch monarch being the head of this union. Both sides were unhappy with the agreement, which did not bode well for its longevity. But it held, at least until the end of 1946.
Wondering how SE Asia will drift from our timeline

And finally, the Soviets continued to woo the friendly government in Sinkiang,
we're wooing too, and we too have an albeit small land corridor to Sinkiang! Need to build railroad there! :D
 
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we're wooing too, and we too have an albeit small land corridor to Sinkiang! Need to build railroad there! :D

I suspect both Turkey and Soviets want China as fractured as possible into big chunks rather than unified, esepcially if those chunks are friendly or allied.

The Japanese (and somewhat tepid US) obsession with keeping Mongolia is going to be their undoing. They cannot possibly hold it, and with China slipping out of their hands and Vietnam and Korea closer to home, they really do need to withdraw. If not, it's going to go quite badly for them.

As for South East Asia itself, the US has shown back up again, and seems to be trying to reclaim their Pacific empire on the cheap. Philippines and (hopefully) Japan becoming liberal democracies will help, but intervening in China is going to be expensive, no matter which way they chose to do it. With the chance of getting a friendly Vietnam gone (probably forever, given the 'First' Vietnam War descriptor), Korea and Vietnam are going to be huge thorns in the side of Japan and the amercians for decades to come.
 
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