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Dev Diary #38 – Trade Routes & Tariffs

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If money is the sinews of war, then trade is the lifeblood of nations and in no period is this truer than the Victorian Era. Victoria 3 takes place in a period of time where the nations of the world pushed this concept further than before, through a period of industrialization and growing interconnectivity of first homelands and colonies and then among nation-states themselves. The trade routes on the map connecting our nations became the fabric that underpins many of the understandings of our modern world today.

But what is trade? It may seem obvious to some but to better understand the systems we need to make sure we understand the foundations they are built upon. Thus, trade is understood to be the movement of goods between two markets as a means of commercial transaction so that the other party is effectively paid for their services. Trade is not conducted between businesses and/or nations but is instead conducted through their national markets and by proxy their trade centers. While this may not seem a meaningful distinction, the market and economy of a nation is not synonymous with its national government; while that government may attempt to influence the economy it does not always have an absolute degree of control over it. Thus the trade that goes on in your market is something that you can influence and encourage (or discourage if you like) but never fully control (unless you are the only nation in existence I guess?).

While trade takes place between national markets at the behest of players and AI, it is conducted in the trade centers of those respective countries. Trade centers function similarly to urban centers, talked about in a previous dev diary. These are not buildings that are constructed manually but develop as a result of their engaging in trade routes as they are representative of the many gray areas of industry that necessitate the collection and movement of goods.

If you were to create an import route of goods for your industries, a resulting level of trade centers would develop within your nation. While urban centers tend to develop where you have placed many industrial buildings, trade centers develop in the market capitals and the ports of your nation. While you cannot paint the placement of trace centers outright, you can influence their development by creating ports in states that are naturally suited to such, where infrastructure and pops are readily available to staff them.

Where there is a port and people, there is likely to be trade, and hopefully profit!
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Yes, trade centers must be staffed. Goods do not just appear in one nation from the next but require the maintenance of bureaucrats, laborers, clerks, and the like to offload and onload cargo, take account of it, tax it, and move it forward. These are for the most part privately owned enterprises that normally have capitalists in charge, instead of government run services. Without pops staffing your trade centers you will find yourself unable to conduct trade in accordance with your aspirations but that shouldn’t be too hard to manage as trade centers have also been historically known to be centers of migration, the first stop of migrants both domestic and international seeking a better life and sometimes finding it.

All the goods moving to and from New York means it's easier for Pops to hitch a ride.
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Trade centers collect revenue on both sides of the routes they manage, in relation to how many goods are moved and how much the routes affect the prices in their respective markets. This revenue is allocated to the employees and taxed by the same logic as any industry, so who makes money off your trade is related to your domestic policies in the same way as the rest of your economy.

While trade is something every nation can take a part of, how they affect trade in relation to conducting it efficiently, preventing it when it hurts them, or profiting off of it when they can is dependent upon its trade policies, which also dictate how a nation can utiize embargoes and tariffs to achieve such. Yes that’s right, I said tariffs, cue historical excitement of the fanbase.

Where at first there was one law category, now there are two!
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We’ve done a little restructuring of the economic laws in Victoria 3 since we wrote the Law dev diary, where originally your economic system affected both your domestic and international situations. It has been broken into economic systems which now cover the domestic economy, and trade policy which covers your international endeavors. As such trade policy governs how you interact with a customs union, your ability to set embargoes and tariffs, as well as the general efficiency of your conducted trade.

The Trade Policy laws are broken down into the four categories of ideology relative to the time period which interact with each of the economic systems you can put into place domestically.
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Embargos represent the ability of a national government to extend its influence in protecting its national market and subsequent interests. Most, if not all nations can engage in embargoing a good but their effectiveness of doing such is dependent upon the trade policy the national government is centered around. A government centered around the ideas of protectionism has an easier time implementing a more efficient embargo on goods vs those that are committed to a more mercantilism or free trade policy. Notice I said influence, not authority there? While it costs authority to enact taxes domestically it costs influence to place embargos as whether or not they are able to be enforced is dependent upon your ability to influence other nations to respect them. Refusing to make fair trade deals will strain your diplomatic corp.

Protectionism means that not only are embargoes easier to maintain, they are also more efficient.
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And now for the potentially more controversial statement, embargoes are not absolute. Sure you may embargo trade of a specific good into your country but that’s not going to stop it outright, only hinder the ease of its trade. Another nation might try and continue to push goods into your country but it will certainly require more of an effort to facilitate such, it all depends. In history there’s certainly something we can agree upon, embargoing something, making it illegal, or hindering its trade reduces the flow of the good but does not stop it outright if there is a vested interest by another nation and a profit to be made.

Tariffs are the means where a national government extends its influence as an intermediary in the trade between national markets, if not for the means of protecting its national interests, to at the very least ensure it gets its fair share of the profits that such entails. Tariffs are set on both exports and imports leaving the national economy because yes the government is interested in its fair share and if it cannot get the revenue by means of a consumption tax it will find other means. The ratio of this tariff level is dependent on the trade policy set. A more mercantilist trade policy would seek to ensure exports exceed imports so tariffs on exports will undoubtedly be lower. Protectionism is equal in its ratio as it seeks to shelter the domestic economy from booming or busting on either side of the equation. Free Trade, well free trade cares not for tariffs and seeks to profit through other means.

While the laws set the tariff ratio of import/exports these can be customized further in the budget screen by setting their tax levels. Tax levels don’t just bring in revenues but offer incentives to your economic actors, your pops. Lower tariffs encourage trade while higher tariffs will hinder their efficiency because well if the nation is getting a bigger cut, how motivated can you expect the pop to be in engaging in such trade?

A higher tariff means minimizing the profit to be had by business and disincentivizing trade.
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So how do treaty ports play into these systems, as they certainly existed during the time period? Treaty ports are a means to ensure that you have access to a national market despite such embargoes and tariffs. They are a wedge in the barriers to trade another nation may put up so the goods may be funneled out of the market. Treaty ports have the special function that they permit the bypassing of embargoes and tariffs set in land adjacent markets through trading. They are a more permanent means of opening the market to your access but in the same vein also require a more permanent investment. Since treaty ports are first and foremost ports they will certainly become trade centers and will require the infrastructure and staffing to function. As you invest in this profitable endeavor, be aware that you will need to protect such from the eyes of other imperialist nations who might seek to take it away from you.

At game start Portugal finds itself holding the Treaty Port of Macao, a very profitable trade endeavor, but will such profits attract the attention of greater powers?
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How do Customs unions come into play here? If you recall from the previous developer diary, customs unions are an agreement between one or more nations where one nation agrees to subject itself to another's national market. By agreeing to subject your national market to another nation you are agreeing to take on the structure set into place by their economic system and policies. While you are still able to enact trade between that national market and another you lose the ability to set embargoes on specific goods and tariff policies across the market, though you do receive your contributing share of the profit of such tariffs. Sometimes this development can be beneficial, sometimes it can majorly hurt your national sources of income, as the previous dev diary goes to great length to summarize “it depends.”

And that's a bit about trade, tariffs, and more! I may not have succeeded in delivering a concise explanation this time but it's certainly a shorter one. Next week is going to be the Kaiser himself (Johan Jons) to talk about Shipping Lanes. I’ll let the fanbase craft their own conspiracy theories about whether or not we are being literal with that one.
 
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I wonder whether this gives any mechanism to make the trade deal very profitable for the other side, something that could resemble for example delivery of weapons for half price? (Weapon subsidies for someone fighting our rivals)
 
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I don't like that the handling of tariffs is as rough and crude as 5 buttons.

I would prefer the method like Victoria 2 where you could even choose negative tariffs to encourage imports and exports.

No me gusta que el manejo de lls aranceles sea tan bruto y tosco como 5 botones.

Preferiria el metos como el de Victoria 2 donde podias asta elegir araceles en negativo para fomentar la importación y la exportación.
 

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Nice dev diary!

There should be an achievement for setting up a treaty port in the UK (or possibly other major Western nations) as China ;)
 
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Fantastic DD! Thank you.

I assume trade centers are buildings not built by the player, although the player can nudge their creation by certain actions. Wonderful design.

From this DD (emphasis added)
While trade takes place between national markets at the behest of players and AI, it is conducted in the trade centers of those respective countries. Trade centers function similarly to urban centers, talked about in a previous dev diary. These are not buildings that are constructed manually but develop as a result of their engaging in trade routes as they are representative of the many gray areas of industry that necessitate the collection and movement of goods.

If you were to create an import route of goods for your industries, a resulting level of trade centers would develop within your nation. While urban centers tend to develop where you have placed many industrial buildings, trade centers develop in the market capitals and the ports of your nation. While you cannot paint the placement of trace centers outright, you can influence their development by creating ports in states that are naturally suited to such, where infrastructure and pops are readily available to staff them.
 
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Trade system seems surprisingly comprehensive. I mean, I was kinda expecting that they would reveal how trade routes are created, but turns out that there is more into it than that.
 
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I like it. The centres of trade have a natural growth to them, just as the urban centres.

How much can we freely choose the trade route? If I play as France for example, will a I be able to choose if a trade route goes through Marseille or through Nice instead?

About those treaty ports. How do they work exactly? Because you say they allow you to bypass the economic laws, like embargoes.
So does that mean that they have some sort of modifier to them that allows goods to pass through freely? Or is that part of the accompanying treaty?
Are they part of the market of the port owner or of the nation you have taken the port from?
Will treaty ports have the possibility to put "local" laws in effect? For example treaty ports might encourage (in case of Macao) Chinese labour while the rest of the Portuguese empire discriminates against Chinese.
 
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If you aren't going to let us micro out armies, at least allow us to micro our taxes and tariffs. Five preset levels doesn't really do that.
 
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So with Treaty Ports, could any port city theoretically become a treaty port? Or is it locked to very specific cities as before? I do think having more flexible treaty ports, potentially all over the globe, would be quite fun and give them more variety, even if it would be quite hard to snag one in like the UK or something
 
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Can you impose import tariffs on specific goods, making them more expensive so as to favour locally produced goods?

Or also export tariffs on specific goods, to ensure they do not flow to other markets and are cheaper at home?
Tariffs are not currently set on specific goods they are set across the board as a policy of all traded goods. Thats the intent for now - going into calling out specific goods beyond that is something that was considered but has not been put into play.

How are trade routes created by the player? You mention a player can create an import route of goods, but how is that done? Is it created through the Trade Centre itself, or is there a separate Trade window one sets routes up in, similar to HOI4?

I also note that import routes have +/- buttons allowing one to adjust the size of them, but export routes lack that. Are exports then automatic?
Its one of those things that you kinda just expect that others know about and apologies for not making that clear. Trade is done either through the market screen or the lens for trade on the bottom of the UI, you can choose to import/export a specific good and then the market you wish to get it from/send it to. This interaction will then create a trade center. It is then summarized for ease in the Trade Center Menu (though this UI exists in the Markets summary as well).

Forgive me if this information is elsewhere but what is the list of Economic Systems and the effects of each system? What are the effects of the other 3 Trade Policies that are not in the screenshot?
I'm saving that for future leaking at some point in the future. Unless another dev wishes to spoil my fun and post it. It is very similar to the Economic Systems that were shown in previous dev diaries as it was trade policy that was split out of it.

Is it possible to embargo (sanction) a specific country? Like only embargoing German coal but not coal from the rest of the world
It is not currently possible to embargo a specific country, though if we did put in such functionality it would have to be embargoing a specific national market - as countries themselves do not trade.
 
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Trade centers collect revenue on both sides of the routes they manage, in relation to how many goods are moved and how much the routes affect the prices in their respective markets. This revenue is allocated to the employees and taxed by the same logic as any industry, so who makes money off your trade is related to your domestic policies in the same way as the rest of your economy.​

How does this actually work in game? We saw in the Twitter Teaser yesterday that sulfur imports would result in sulfur being over twice as expensive in the exporter's market as in the importer's. Does that mean the trade center will take a very large loss from that trade route since they're buying high and selling low?
 
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It is not currently possible to embargo a specific country, though if we did put in such functionality it would have to be embargoing a specific national market - as countries themselves do not trade.

It really wouldn't make sense at all to not have this functionality. In a game that promotes the idea that other diplomatic means should be pursued before war, embargo and economic warfare would be a necessary tool to have.

Even if it means embargoing individual markets rather than countries, I think the option should be added.
 
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In the Twitter Teaser Sulfur had a higher price in the US market, but still exported into the Texan Market. How does the Trade Center make a profit if the good its buying has a lower price at the goods destination then its source? Wouldn't the trade center lose money from the goods it's trading? and if so why would the traders continue trading?
So, didn't see the teaser until now and yes looking at those numbers it seems like that would be a loss/loss trade (assuming that its not a bug that the 53 and 59 are reversed and thats where the profit is in the marginal revenue - Entirely feasible the game is under development after all and bugs are common). Took me awhile to answer this one only because I had to go back and run some marginal revenue calculations to assume I wasn't going crazy because its late here and I am tired.

But lets assume that the trade is unprofitable, well that means there isn't profit to go to the trade centers, which means that they are conducting this trade at a loss. Now this loss may wash out in the many other profitable trades the trade center is conducting. Regardless to some degree this means that less profit is at the trade center, which means salaries are lower because profits are lower - if this was the only trade route well salaries would dry up - pops would look elsewhere for jobs and as a result of not being able to staff your trade center the trade route would not deliver goods.
 
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Tariffs are not currently set on specific goods they are set across the board as a policy of all traded goods. Thats the intent for now - going into calling out specific goods beyond that is something that was considered but has not been put into play.

That's a massive shame. Import substitution relies on high tariffs on finished goods and lower tariffs on intermediate goods and raw materials. I think in his report on manufactures, Hamilton already advises as much (although predating the game's time frame). Probably influenced by Friedrich List, the Zollverein in the 1840s also adopted higher tariffs on finished products while keeping tariffs on iron and other raw materials moderate.

I could easily foresee dozens of scenarios in Victoria 3 where I want to fine tune my tariffs. How can I nourish my industrial base if I can only set tariffs across the board? Either I make everything expensive and nobody will be able to import raw materials and intermediate goods (and probably machines) to get my industry going or I make imports so cheap that it's not worth to produce these goods locally.
 
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But lets assume that the trade is unprofitable, well that means there isn't profit to go to the trade centers, which means that they are conducting this trade at a loss. Now this loss may wash out in the many other profitable trades the trade center is conducting. Regardless to some degree this means that less profit is at the trade center, which means salaries are lower because profits are lower - if this was the only trade route well salaries would dry up - pops would look elsewhere for jobs and as a result of not being able to staff your trade center the trade route would not deliver goods.
Does that mean a country can not subsidise a trade center? In a world where those trade centers are the only way to import goods not produced in the country?
 
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