Quick and Dirty 2: A Soviet Resurgence and WW3 (HOI3 - March 1944 start)

[stnylan]

So long as one can keep killing them at the same or faster rate, victory is ultimately inevitable.

 

[Bullfilter]

I've decided to push through with the full month of November reporting before I turn back to my other AARs again, to keep the momentum going (there's a lot of info wrangling involved in this one). The next period of eight days was big, so it will take a whole chapter by itself.

Supplementary comment feedback:

V1/2s coordinated with INTs worked out to be great! The skies are all hammer and sickle!

I've found a good use for them, I think, and am glad I've boosted the range on those V2s to be able to strike enemy air bases in depth. The attempts to do so with STRAT far less damage and got two of my three Strat groups cut up quite badly.

In fact, I think best would be to make sure the production lines for the V1/2s never stop they seem to be very useful. I never used them before and now I regret it.

I'll keep topping them up as necessary.

Is it possible to turn the TAC bombing a notch or two? Since we have air supremacy we should use it well to pound them to smithereens which would translate to success on the ground

No, in fact they have been taking a bit of a hammering and the Allies air forces are only temporarily set back - and they will probably be able to send more forward if their bases have the space to accommodate them (which my V weapons are keeping suppressed, at least).

I don't know how expensive that would be, but maybe paradrops should concentrate more divisions at one province in order to make it less taxing for each division

I only have the transports to drop one at a time, unfortunately.

A bit of a bloody nose for the air force, is this out of our INT range? Maybe need some MRs here

Not out of INT range, but they are separately tasked, trying to keep the invasion fleet safe. I think, in hindsight, I didn't produce enough extra INT and M/R wings: it's getting hard to sustain high intensity air ops and cover multiple tasks.

Biggest cliffhanger of the war so far

You will soon see more - though I cannot promise there won' be more!

So long as one can keep killing them at the same or faster rate, victory is ultimately inevitable.

One can hope so, but they have the numbers on their side with so many Allied countries to trickle reinforcements to the front. But we shall keep thrashing away as best we can (with AI Army commanders, at least).

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 38: Part Two – 16 to 23 November 1947​

Introduction

The intensity of operations stepped up significantly in all three active theatres in the third period of the month from 16-23 November and the fighting in and around Toyohara reached a crescendo on land, in the air and at sea. Therefore, in order to cover the latter in sufficient detail (and because I thought it was a ripping good yarn in a more unusual area for the Soviets), I will keep to the staged approach for this eight day period and use a full chapter to depict it.

I do intend to pan out further for December, but this first month is so crucial for the Soviets and there’s so much action, I want to do it some justice. It also allows a few cliff-hangers for the final week of the first month of WW3! Tech and espionage developments will be covered in monthly summaries at the end of the next chapter.

******​

The West

The skies remained contested, with VVS interceptors active again, trying to prevent enemy raids by CAS and TAC sorties. During the week, the Soviet bombing rate of effort would remain similar to the week before: generally one, sometimes two target provinces hit per day, with an average of about 675 casualties inflicted per day, with Wehlau (3,338 over five days), then Pulutsk (1,886 in three) being the main targets. The Allies were only able to penetrate VVS air cover sporadically, causing 1,078 casualties in Pogegen and Insterburg on the 17th and 616 in Pogegen on the 23rd.

The Allies were able to do little in the south, a Greek sortie against Caransebes on 16 November being an indicative example. They caused a few casualties but were then mauled when the VVS turned up as they finished their ground attack.

​

The German raids early in the period (mentioned above) got through on the 17th, but were then contested by the VVS, leading to an absence of Allied TAC raids in the north for the next five days.

​

Some major battles were decided on 17 November as things continued to heat up, a loss at Sandomierz (Soviet 1,637/7,998; Allies 1,221/8,975 killed) and a victory in Debica (2,111/35,743; Allies 4,840/30,971 killed). The Allies were still having supply problems in Prussia, for example in the key battle for Wehlau.

That night, there was a very bloody defensive loss in Turka at 2100hr, just south of Lwów (Soviets 7,436/51,835; Allies 2,207/48,958 killed). The loss in Turka and pressure elsewhere saw the Hungarian Front put onto a fully defensive posture (the Debrecen objective would be removed later).

​

On 18 November, another big battle was resolved: a concerted Allied attack on the border air base of Stanislawow was repelled by the Red Army (Soviets 2,606/33,305; Allies 4,260/21,645 killed). This was a relief, but the Soviets found themselves increasingly on the defensive in Poland.

On the afternoon of the 20th, a new V2 battery was deployed in the forward air base in Jaworow (west of Lwów) and another in Suwalki (on the Prussian border). As they were being installed, at 1500hr one of the old V1 batteries in Brzesc Litewski was launched at the airfield in Warsaw, where repairs had begun and a few wings were operating. Two hours later, a long battle to defend the north-western edge of the Polish salient was won at Krasnik (Soviets 2,329/26,609; Allies 3,924/33,864).

The early morning of 21 November saw the VVS once again repel Polish efforts to bomb the key battleground province of Ostroleka, which the Soviets were trying to hold against Allied counter-attacks.

​

Another big battle came to a head at 1500hr on the 21st, with a big defensive win at Biala Podlaska – a Polish border province directly south-west of Brzesc Litewski taken earlier in the month – (Soviets 4,503/42,570; Allies 5,061/23,196 killed). But by that night, it was under attack yet again.

By 2200hr that night, the southern Polish salient was being slowly eroded and remained under pressure. The Soviet offensive in this sector had ground to a halt and was if anything being slowly pushed back.

​

Wehlau, where a major Soviet attack had been in progress for some time and was going well, had been under constant VVS ground attack from 17-21 November, causing over 3,300 Allied casualties. But the Luftwaffe interrupted this early on the 22nd, damaging Soviet CAS and TAC wings.

​

A few hours later, Hungarian aircraft managed to restart raids on Drohobycz (though only 50 casualties were caused in a one-off raid, it was indicative of continued Allied efforts to find holes in the Soviet air defences, where more INT had to be taken off line for repairs as the month wore on).

At 0300hr on 23 November, the lengthy and bloody battle for Memel was finally won by the Soviets, but at great cost (Soviets 9,214/68,986; Allies 5,248/44,759 killed). An hour later, another expensive victory came in Wehlau (Soviets 3,006/54,739; Allies 1,523/93,407 killed). Neither had been occupied by the end of the day.

Unfortunately, that evening there were two significant defensive losses: one in Debica on the western edge of the southern Poland salient (Soviets 2,664/32,132; Allies 3,395/32,633 killed) and on the Hungarian border in the hotly contested Drohobycz (Soviets 2,361/23,826; Allies 1,549/12,954 killed).

As the eight-day reporting period ended just before midnight on 23 November, a little progress had been made in east Prussia and on the northern Polish border, but the southern Polish salient had been nibbled away. Some ground had been lost in Romania too.

​

The pace of combat had increased significantly, with the Soviets losing a majority of the 63 battles concluded between 16-23 November. Total casualties on both sides in the west were very nearly even: and were twice as many as the previous two weeks combined for both the Soviets and Allies.

The fighting remained hard and large-scale in Prussia with Memel and Wehlau due to be occupied by the Soviets after tough fights. But it was a slow and grinding process in that sector.

​

In Poland, the salient towards Warsaw and Krakow remained fairly shallow, with large Allied reinforcements (mainly German divisions, but also Czech, Italian and Yugoslavian formations) joining the fight.

​

The Hungarian sector had been hard-fought but largely stationary. Romania continued to be chaotic, with many provinces, especially Mehadia, fought over multiple times. Constanta had fallen to the Allies but not followed up, Bucharest was now under threat and a worrying pocket had nearly been isolated in the west of Romania, with Mehadia at its western edge.

******​

Toyohara

The hectic fighting in and over Toyohara went on unabated. As 16 November began, the Soviet paratroopers had withdrawn from the fight and were retreating to the ships, but the enemy mountain division had also been forced out of the battle. A single enemy CAG harassed the fleet, with the heavy cruiser Krasni Kavkaz taking the brunt of the damaged.

​

A day later, the Soviet marines and infantry were trying to shock the British 2nd Armd, which had a defensive advantage to reduce its casualties.

​

That night, the enemy CAG attacks stepped up, with five wings hitting the two Soviet battle fleets from carriers in an unknown location causing widespread though not yet critical damage.

As the land battle raged on and MAJGEN Ivanov launched a reckless assault, by the morning of the 19th another enemy CAG strike hit home at 0600hr.

​

The CAGs hit again at midday, damaging but not sinking any Soviet ships. Then at 1800hr, all hell broke loose as the carrier fleet(s) that had been launching the air strikes followed up the latest naval strike with a direct attack on the Soviet invasion fleets, with two fleet and two escort carriers involved.

​

In response, all three Soviet NAV groups were launched at the Japanese fleet, including the previously unused 4th Maritime Group in Tumnin. But the CAGs were closer and at it again at 1900hr, though they ended up engaging the 4th Group instead, while some of the Soviet NAV got through to damage the Japanese fleet. At 2200hr the Japanese had enough and withdrew as the Gulf of Terpeniya was flooded with damaged ships and aircraft from both sides. The invasion would continue.

​

Early on the 20th, the five Japanese CAGs were finishing another mission as two VVS INT wings intercepted them, in company with the 4th Mar Gp. But the Soviets wings came off second best in the ensuing dogfight and the CAGs were striking the fleet again by 0600hr. Many Soviet ships were now completely disorganised and many were damaged, some heavily.

​

The dogfighting over the fleet escalated even further later that morning. First one VVS INT group, then another, then by 1000hr both together fought the enemy CAGs: they started to do some damage, but many of the Soviet interceptors were badly disorganised by then. The mid-morning strike finished at 1100hr, in which the first Soviet vessel was sunk: the previously damaged Krasni Kavkaz.

​

That afternoon, desperate to get ashore before the fleet was destroyed, the reckless assault continued, but the weakening British armour managed an effective counter-attack to slow down progress.

​

Following this, a succession of single-CAG interceptions frustratingly kept deflecting large Soviet TAC raids aimed at Toyohara, as all available aircraft were thrown into support the attack, even though the Japanese wings were taking ever greater damage.

​

Late on the 20th, the newest sub squadron (the 2nd, out of Petropavlovsk Kamcackij) was ready for combat and was sent out to patrol between Hokkaido and the Soviet Pacific Coast. The Japanese fleet seemed to have holed up in the port of Toyohara after withdrawing from the last naval battle, hence the abundance of CAG air cover there.

Then, words were heard that echoed uncomfortably for the Soviets when a patrolling NAV group was ambushed by fresh Japanese INT to the south of Inchon on the morning of the 21st.

​

An hour later, a small Japanese task force (two CL and a DD flotilla) was spotted and attacked by Soviet NAV in La Perouse Strait, directly south-east of the Gulf of Terpeniya. By midday they had entered the invasion zone and were attacked by the battered Soviet fleet and by supporting NAV. The destroyers were soon in trouble, then both the Soviet fleet and NAV combined to sink two of the Japanese cruisers by 1800hr, even though both claimed the Mogami: another victory for the desperate gamble where the ground battle still dragged on, with the Soviet marines on top but taking heavy casualties.

​

Early on the 22nd, another enemy CAG strike was intercepted by the almost exhausted VVS air cover patrol, who had been flying air superiority missions for the whole invasion period. They had to break off for recovery at 0500hr. But the two wings of 14th Fighter Group in Vladivostok was still on line and flying intercept (14. IAD at 95%, 41. IAD at 27% strength, but both still well organised). Then at midday, yet another ground attack on Toyohara was thwarted by the enemy’s 16th CAG, but the latter were defeated by the VVS escorts at 1500hr.

​

On the ground in Toyohara, Soviet numbers were starting to overcome the British armour, though the 1st Marines were just as exhausted as their enemies and air support had been denied for some days by enemy CAG interceptions. The battle was nearly over, but if the fleet was forced away, the whole enterprise would fail.

​

A sortie attempt was made at 1900hr on the 22nd by one of the Japanese carrier TFs in Toyohara, accompanied an hour later by a naval strike from their three CAGs. The battleship Yamashiro led the surface attack, with Kaga and Zuiho holding back to launch their air strikes.

​

But the CAGs ran into VVS NAV first (which had been trying to strike the enemy task force) at 2100hr, then the Soviet 14th Fighter Group joined in an hour later. By 2300hr, the Japanese had been driven off, with no ships sunk on either side. The battle in Toyohara was entering its final stages. The Japanese carriers seemed to have avoided any serious damage in all this.

​

Yet another VVS ground attack on Toyohara was frustrated by a lone and full strength CAG from 0300-0500hr on the morning of the 23rd. They had done a very adept job at holding off multiple VVS raids over successive days.

But this last effort was not enough for the British to hold on in Toyohara: they broke at 0600hr and an hour later, the Soviet marines and follow-up infantry divisions had secured their objective – at last! But there was no respite for the Soviet invasion fleet, which now had the retreated Soviet paratroopers aboard and were still trying to unload the last division and the Marine Corps HQ. The Japanese CAGs again struck in waves at 0900hr. By midday, the 5th DD flotilla had been sent to the bottom.

​

And even as those five CAGs were attacking the fleet, at 0700hr the Soviet INT were engaging another two over Toyohara: in all, seven enemy CAGs were engaged in their desperate action to drive off the Soviet fleet.

At 0800hr, a short attempt by the previously defeated Japanese 15th Mtn Div to re-enter Toyohara was brushed off quickly within an hour (Soviets 8/45,743; Japanese 132/6,846 killed).

But the consequence of the taking of Toyohara was that the entire Japanese fleet that had been harbouring there was forced out – and now made a heavy attack on the two Soviet invasion fleets at midday. Simultaneously, a massive eight wing GAG strike was launched, but the 14th Fighter Group desperately tried to hold them off. It was the most hectic and dire action of the Toyohara campaign to date.

​

By 1500hr, three enemy ships had been sunk, but at 1800hr the CAGs got through the VVS fighter cover, once more damaging many Soviet ships by 2000hr. The battle continued throughout the rest of the night and would move into the morning of the 24th.

******​

The East

Japanese fighters were increasingly active in the Far East on 16 November. Guessing that the Japanese were using P’ungsan in northern Korea as their forward base, the so-far unused 3rd Strategic Group was sent in to hit the runways, but they were intercepted over P'abal li, the escorts taking the heaviest damage.

​

They got through to P'ungsan that afternoon, managing to do some reasonable cratering but took damage from the AA guns and a Japanese interception from 1500-1700hr. Due to an orders mix-up, what was meant to be a solo mission took off again that night, and this time one of the STRAT wings also took heavy damage. By the time it was done, the group had to be evacuated to a rear base for repairs, Vladivostok being over-crowded.

​

The vulnerability of Vladivostok, where fighter cover had been diverted to the Toyohara operation, was brought home on the morning of the 17th: a renewed Japanese port strike sunk both the repairing submarine flotillas in their docks at 0800hr. In retrospect, they should have been sent back to Kamchatka instead.

​

As Ch’ongjin and Yanji continued to be killing grounds and were not key to victory against Manchuria, 1ya Armiya was switched to a defensive stance and a consolidation on a Dunhua-Kraskino-Ch’ongjin line on the afternoon of the 17th.

​

The fight in eastern Mongolia continued to be tough for both sides, with a close defensive loss in Tamsog Bulak on the afternoon of the 19th (Soviets 1,262/7,998; Allies 1,178/18,116 killed). But to their north, Soviet 7th Army forces were on the advance in north-western Manchuria.

On the afternoon of 20 November, two new V2 installations were deployed in Vladivostok: if any more runway strikes were deemed necessary, they would be used.

At 1300hr on 22 November, the Soviets won a close battle for Byrka in northern-western Manchuria (Soviets 1,175/9,999; Allies 1,260/8,891).

As the period finished, the Soviets had advanced more than half way to Harbin in the north and had pushed into the rougher terrain to its south-east. The north-eastern Manchurian and Mongolian fronts were holding their own, on balance. And of course, on Sakhalin Toyohara had just been taken, though at significant cost and with the navy still engaged in the Gulf of Terpinya.

******​

The South

On 17 November, a joint Soviet and Persian attack in Durbun in western Pakistan was bloodily repulsed (Soviets 1,124; Pakistanis 1,262 killed), with RAF raids on Nok Kundi on the 16th (1,096 killed) and Lashkar Gah on the 17th (killing another 1,071 Soviet troops) assisting their defence.

By early on the morning of 18 November, the Soviet 7th HArm Div had secured Amarah and now advanced on the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, which was unoccupied.

​

But there was a reverse to the north in Kirkuk on the 19th, the Soviet attack there defeated (Soviets 555; Iraqis 610 killed).

There was however a clear Soviet victory in Ba’quba at 1000hr on 23 November (Soviets 257/16,992; Iraqis 873/16,340 killed), just north of Baghdad, which remained undefended. It fell at 1800hr and the Iraqi capital shifted to Tikrit, which was also under threat.

The general situation in the Southern (Caucasus) Theatre showed extended incursions into Iraq, with the Allies pecking away at the south of Afghanistan while the Soviets and Persians slowly advanced into western Pakistan. To date, Allied air power in the eastern sector had proven more destructive of manpower than Soviet victories on the ground for the enemy.

​

A more detailed view of Iraq showed the French INT was patrolling the deserts east of Tikrit and its approaches were still well defended, even if it was not itself. It looked like a Syrian division may eb moving up to defend it, however.

​

In Pakistan, a Persian division had managed to push forward and occupy Durban by the end of the 23rd.

******​

Strategic Warfare

The Soviets lost convoys on the Ulya-Petropavlovsk Kamcackij route on 19 November (one convoy, one escort) and the 21st (also one convoy, one escort).

The Soviet submariners sunk a French transport in the Tsushima Strait on the 20th and Japanese convoys in the same location on the 21st and another in the Northwest Pacific Basin Plateau on the 23rd.

******​

General Summary

On all fronts, up to the end of 23 November 1947, the Soviets had lost 148,694 troops in ground combat and 27,870 to air strikes, for a total of 176,564 casualties. The Allies had seen 144,578 killed on the ground and 55,378 from the air, for a total of 199,956 casualties. The main difference continued to be Soviet air power. Of the 239 battle results recorded, the Soviets had won 132, the Allies 107.

But the eight day period to 23 November seemed to show something of a tide change, with a total of 96,949 Soviet combat casualties from all sources and only 91,055 for the Allies. 99 battles had been fought resolved (a significant increase in tempo from the previous eight day period) with 45 won by the Soviets and 54 by the Allies.

Time seemed to be running out in the West for any decisive Soviet blow. The South and East showed a little more promise, but these were unlikely to be the decisive theatres in the overall war. The desperate ploy to capture Toyohara had worked, but the cost had been heavy and a furious naval battle still raged as the Japanese fleet broke out to escape through the Soviet invasion and escort fleets in the Gulf of Terpeniya.

 

[Surt]

A bit disappointed by the lack of allied air power.

 

[diskoerekto]

The outlook in Europe is starting to not look as good as it did the previous episode, we're barely hanging on with the aid of air supremacy and if that was lost we might be toast.

The saga of Toyohara was a great one! Our NAVs showed to be a great and much cheaper asset than building a surface fleet from scratch. Their CAGs were a pest though.

I think you have some plans in mind to turn this whole war around, and I'm curious to see what they are and how will they go

 

[stnylan]

Nailbiting stuff out East. The progress in Iraq is interesting - onto Egypt?

 

[Bullfilter]

I'm pushing through with the third and final chapter for November and hopefully get back to one chapter per month after this. More big events to come and comments (of course) welcome on all the November chapters, which I've deliberately grouped together to keep the monthly theme going (and we did have some two-three month chapters before that, so it balances out).

A bit disappointed by the lack of allied air power.

I'm not! They have been trying, but although outnumbered overall Soviet INT have proven superior to their opponents, coupled with all the airfield strikes (shock and awe style with missiles). You will soon see what happens in the final eight days of the month.

The outlook in Europe is starting to not look as good as it did the previous episode, we're barely hanging on with the aid of air supremacy and if that was lost we might be toast.

It's in the balance, definitely. The failure to punch through in northern Poland was a big blow.

The saga of Toyohara was a great one! Our NAVs showed to be a great and much cheaper asset than building a surface fleet from scratch. Their CAGs were a pest though.

And the story still has a bit to play out, as the naval and CAG battle continues.

I think you have some plans in mind to turn this whole war around, and I'm curious to see what they are and how will they go

Maybe - it will soon be revealed

Nailbiting stuff out East. The progress in Iraq is interesting - onto Egypt?

It was a close fight for Toyohara, but Stalin became determined - obsessed even to see it through.

As to Iraq: we'll see soon. The concern is other Allied units that may filter in from further west.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 38: Part Three – 24 to 30 November 1947​

Introduction

Toyohara finally fell to the combined airborne and amphibious assault on 23 November – but at some cost to the air and naval forces supporting the invasion. The full cost would only be known once the naval battle caused by the escape to sea of the Japanese fleet sheltering in Toyohara Harbour – including six aircraft carriers – was over.

With the offensive in the West seemingly bogged down, the main Soviet hopes now remained in the Southern and Eastern Theatres.

******​

The East

The Japanese CAG strikes (eight CAG wings flying from three CVs and three CVLs) hit again on the morning of 24 November, two groups flying separately but both finishing at 1000hr.The results were devastating, with all the previous accumulated damage compounded by the massed strikes and simultaneous naval combat. The last Soviet troops were also ashore by 1000hr, by which time the surface battle had concluded in an almost Tsushima-like defeat for the Soviet Navy as the few remaining Red Navy ships bolted for the now-occupied port of Toyohara to get away as quickly as they could.

​

The ‘new’ battleship Sovietsky Soyuz was the largest Soviet casualty, with the pride-of-the-fleet Parizhskaya Kommuna the only ship of either fleet to survive in good shape: all their CAs and CLs had been sunk. In essence, the surface element of the Soviet Navy had been eviscerated but their mission had succeeded. And they had sunk Japan’s last known battleship, the Yamashiro, doing it.

The big question to all concerned, for the Soviet military as well as Japan and the Allies more generally, was why Stalin had been so fixated on maintaining this invasion despite the crippling naval losses and diversion of almost all VVS wings to supporting it. Was it simply grim and bloody-minded revenge?

The answer was soon revealed: Stalin had wanted to demonstrate the Soviets could take a key Japanese city [ie a VP province] and no others had been within feasible early reach. With the developing stalemate in the West and knowing China could soon be sending troops to the Allied front, Stalin had to do something to change the calculus and quickly.

​

With Toyohara secure and the remnants of the fleet scurrying for port, it was time to show the Japanese the awesome power of Soviet technology. Ironically, the 3rd Strat Group was still recovering from its damaging attempt to strike Allied runways in northern Korea. But the TAC bombers groups (specifically their M/R escorts) in Vladivostok were just in range of Tokyo. And one specially modified bomber from 11th Tac Group [withdrawn from AI command for the mission] was soon flying into history.

As the bombers were en route, the Red Banner Pacific and 2nd Pacific Battle Fleets limped into port at Toyohara with 11 of the 26 ships or flotillas that had begun the Battle of Gulf Terpeniya, safely unloading the para division that had been aboard during the last climactic naval battle.

11th Tac Group arrived over Tokyo at 1400hr but had to contend with an interception by three Japanese fighter wings for four hours before they could finally deliver their payload. At 1800hr on 24 November 1947 a new sun dawned over the Japanese capital.

NB: it seemed very harsh to do this while watching the Tokyo Olympics on TV, but that’s HOI3 for you. ​

The effect on Japanese national unity was huge, but it was not enough to elicit a surrender, given only Toyohara was in Soviet hands. As the first atomic weapon was delivered on an actual target, the 19th Tac Group was loading up with another nuke in Vladivostok. Nagoya was their target, at a distance of 696km (max range 775km). By 2000hr, 11th Tac was back at its base airfield: wing strength varied between 65-79% and enough organisation was left for them to remain damaged but airworthy if required again.

The dose was repeated on Nagoya at 2300hr on the same day Tokyo had been struck. But it was still not enough to make the Japanese surrender. 13th Tac were hit by Japanese fighters as the nuke dropped, savaging both the TAC wings by 0100hr on the 25th.

​

11th Tac was loading up again with a third nuke and set off for Osaka as the last bomb dropped on Nagoya (a range of 664km). By this time, the Japanese fighter cover was well alerted: they arrived over Osaka at 0100hr and were ambushed by five INT wings – three of them straight from the dogfight over Nagoya. The majority of the Soviet bombers were shot down – but the one with the payload made it through and at 0500hr Osaka was the third city devastated in the space of a day.

​

As 11th Tac straggled into Vladivostok at 0800hr, the Japanese had commenced negotiations for an armistice. The boost to Soviet national unity from these three demonstrations of Soviet nuclear supremacy was considerable (+4 x NU per delivery).

The cost this time was that the two Vladivostok-based TAC groups had to remain off line for repairs, having suffered badly during their long-distance desperate missions.

That evening, a naval skirmish occurred in the Rishiri Strait, Japanese destroyers attacking a Soviet sub squadron, one flotilla almost destroyed by the time Japanese radios crackled with new of the armistice, the action suddenly ending.

​

At midnight, Japan formally surrendered. They would (forcibly) join the Comintern, but not as a combatant: they were in a truce with their former Allied partners.

Comment: given their new NU of just 1% and the whole of Chinese-occupied China at Allied mercy, this was probably just as well. ​

In the Vladivostok Sector, there remained a mix of Japanese and Allied divisions under the others’ command as well as their own.

​

Something similar was the case in the Khabarovsk Sector, where a number of Manchurian divisions were of course unaffected.

Comment: It is working the same way as it did with Slovakia in my Talking Turkey game: a bunch of Japanese EFs still in Allied colours and a good number of Allied EFs still under Japanese command. It will take some time to sort out and could be quite chaotic for a while.​

Combat tempo in the East, especially in the Vladivostok Sector, reduced considerably with the Japanese surrender – surprising no-one. With the Japanese Air Force out of it and the VVS TAC groups recovering, ground attacks on both sides was greatly reduced too.

At 1700hr on the 29th, the Red Navy fleets arrived in Vladivostok – now safe from Japanese air attack – for repairs, after consolidating into a single fleet (under Kuznetsov’s flag in the RBPF).

As the month ended, the Soviets were holding in Mongolia and advancing in northern and eastern Manchuria. The Soviets had won the great majority of battles in the East in the last eight days with one battle in Konto still in progress.

​

The Soviets were not quite as close to Harbin as the maps indicated and the situation remained confused. To the south, most opposition had been coming from Japan, and a more general advance should now be possible – though winter conditions may start to slow movement down in December.

​

Sakhalin had now been rightfully transferred to Soviet sovereignty, with at least one British armoured division now trapped in Maoka (possibly also another still under Japanese command).

​

A number of Allied formations were present in northern Korea and in the Japanese Home Island, while many Chinese units had been passing through Japanese-occupied China. Where all these divisions would end up remained a moot point.

******​

The West

The first major result of the period came on the morning of 24 November, with the Soviets winning a huge defensive battle for Ostroleka, despite losing 2,000 more men than their opponents. Over 217,000 men had taken part in the battle and over 21,000 of them had perished.

​

By the afternoon of the 25th, three of the four armies in the Polish Front (ie army group) were on the defensive, with just the 9th trying to push through in the centre towards Lublin.

​

The Hungarian Front also remained largely on the defensive, with heavy fighting in recent days from Turka all the way south-east to Stanislawow.

​

On the evening of the 26th, the largest nation in South America joined the Allies.

​

The Allied air forces had either not attempted or been prevented from conducting any ground attacks from the 24-27th and another V2 strike on a depth airfield in western Poland early on the 28th attempted to help maintain that suppression.

​

The Germans were however able to launch one of their heavy strikes on Pogegen (Prussia) later that morning. But a heavy VVS interception ensured it was the only Allied ground attack to get through in the West for the rest of the month. Without this suppression, the Soviet position would no doubt have been even more dire.

​

At 0800hr the same morning, the Soviets lost a large defensive battle on the Hungarian border in Turka (Soviets 2,608/16,995; Allies 1,456/25,977 killed).

To Turka’s south-east, another Allied attack on Stanislawow was repelled at 0200hr on the 29th (Soviets 1,217/14,410; Allies 1,797/12,987 killed). And that afternoon, a major Soviet attack on Ostroleka in Prussia succeeded with a large loss of Allied lives including Germans, Italians and Czechs (Soviets 1,194/96,851; Allies 3,945/23,990 killed). But in the south, the Soviets were defeated in Vrsac that night (Soviets 3,018/15,970; Allies 2,350/55.809 killed) and in Mehadia.

The Allies tested Soviet air power again in both Poland and Prussia (the latter another possible resupply mission by US transports this time). Both were reinforced by Luftwaffe fighters, but no Soviet ground casualties resulted. With a Polish CAS wing possibly being destroyed.

​

In central Poland, an attack to try to retake Krasnystaw was won at 1100hr on 30 November (Soviets 1,840/21,991; Allies 3,109/16,966 killed). But the defence of Krasnik in the salient (to Krasnystaw’s immediate south-west) failed just two hours later (Soviets 2,140/14,839; Allies 2,167/51,960 killed), showing how tough it was to make progress anywhere in the West as Allied reinforcements kept arriving to bolster their line.

Tiring VVS INT wings in the south took on a German NAV bomber group over Bucharest in the afternoon (Bucharest had by then fallen to the Allies – Romanian surrender progress at 95%), while those US transports had again been intercepted and savaged soon after.

​

As the month ended, the Soviets maintained territory in Prussia and Poland but had been checked in Hungary and were now in trouble in Romania. The Allies had won more than twice as many battles and skirmishes than the Soviets, whose casualty list was longer in that eight day period than the Allies’. Ground attacks by the exhausted bombers of either side had been few and far between.

​

Fighting remained intense in Prussia, with the Soviets now on the outskirts of Königsberg at Labiau and Wehlau. But German armour had slipped into Memel before it could be occupied and fighting there continued. In general, the Soviets remained on the offensive and advancing slowly, but not enough to be decisive.

​

In Poland, the southern salient had been eroded a little, but not yet cut out, with only two battles currently in progress – both Allied attacks on Soviet-held Polish provinces.

​

The Allied pressure on the Hungarian border continued: though they were currently retreating from Drohobycz a large column seemed to be moving into Skole to its north-west. The Soviets were attacking Greek and Austrian troops in Stulpicani.

​

As mentioned, things were turning sour in Romania. The fall of Bucharest brought Romania to the brink of surrender as Soviet troops remained exposed to the west in the Mehadia Salient.

******​

The South

By the early afternoon of 28 November, there was fighting in three provinces on the Iraqi Front when the Soviets encountered an Egyptian division fighting under Israeli [!!] command at 1300hr.

​

With these new Allied reinforcements beginning to appear, taking Tikrit (which should knock Iraq out of the war) quickly became even more crucial. The 13th Army was given blitzing orders and Tikrit made its only objective.

​

The first Allied air raid in Iraq came on Karbala at 0500hr on the 29th, though only 19 casualties were caused.

The fight for Kirkuk ended in a big Soviet victory at 1600hr on the 30th (Soviets 162/34,981; Iraqis 1,364/25,894 killed), but it would not be occupied before the day ended.

Kirkuk was the only battle decided in the Southern Theatre during the eight day period. Fighting continued in Lashkar Gah in southern Afghanistan, where Soviet casualties from RAF raids were comparatively heavy, but falling off as the month ended.

​

In Iraq, battles in Ba’quba and Al Wadyan continued: taking Kirkuk should make a strong assault on Tikrit much easier – if the Soviet army commander showed the required aggression.

​

A well-positioned advance by Soviet mountain troops into Mardan had put the Pakistani capital of Islamabad under some threat, while Indian troops spearheaded an advance into southern Afghanistan – which the Soviets were not too worried about at this stage.

******​

Strategic Warfare and Industry

No Allied STRAT raids were conducted and neither side registered any convoy sinkings registered in the final eight days of November.

The surrender of Japan had brought one more objective into the Comintern column [though at 12, the Allies still maintained their New World Order]. It also brought a welcome boost to Soviet leadership capacity from the ambitiously title ‘naval supremacy in the East’ effect.

​

After recent technical advances (see below) the upgrade bill had risen greatly by 29 November, while the reinforcement cost had doubled. No supply production was required, while there were four atomic bombs left in the stockpile.

******​

Espionage and Research (Monthly Summary)

Early in the month, the Spanish caught a Soviet spy on 3 November and their strength was up to three teams, causing the Soviets to put their mission there up to 100% on counter-espionage. On 8 November, the Soviets traded one of their teams for a Turkish one. By the time the month ended, all the Spanish agents had been run to ground, including a new one recruited during the month.

​

These developments meant there had been no increase in party influence or covert teams in Spain during the month. In Turkey, the political situation was also neutral, but two more covert teams had been infiltrated.

Four projects had been completed during the month, while the capitulation of Japan had allowed two extra research topics to be begun. The IC cost of the infantry equipment advances in particular was large. V2 range continued to be extended, even as the penalty for ‘before time’ research had begun to apply.

******​

General Summary

Over the whole month, in all theatres the Soviets had lost more troops to ground combat than the Allies by nearly 9,000 men, but had caused almost double the air raid casualties. Of 291 land battles recorded, 155 had been won by the Soviets, 136 by the Allies – a trend that was turning in the Allies’ favour as the month ended. For both sides, well over half the casualties had come in the West. All up, over 464,000 troops had lost their lives so far in the first month of WW3.

​

It remained to be seen whether Soviet success in the East and their first use of atomic weapons could do anything significant to balance the stalemate in the West and the likely surrender of the Romanians.

 

[stnylan]

The Sun has Risen
Let all bask in the nuclear light of Soviet progress
for the Dawn is ever the hope of the common man
Let the bourgeouis West skulk about in the night
The new Day is coming for them

 

[diskoerekto]

And the story still has a bit to play out, as the naval and CAG battle continues.

the NAVs trump the surface ships, the CAGs trump the NAVs, and we don't seem to have enough INT / MRs to trump the CAGs to close the loop but getting there

The Japanese CAG strikes (eight CAG wings flying from three CVs and three CVLs) hit again on the morning of 24 November, two groups flying separately but both finishing at 1000hr.The results were devastating, with all the previous accumulated damage compounded by the massed strikes and simultaneous naval combat. The last Soviet troops were also ashore by 1000hr, by which time the surface battle had concluded in an almost Tsushima-like defeat for the Soviet Navy as the few remaining Red Navy ships bolted for the now-occupied port of Toyohara to get away as quickly as they could.

The answer was soon revealed: Stalin had wanted to demonstrate the Soviets could take a key Japanese city [ie a VP province] and no others had been within feasible early reach. With the developing stalemate in the West and knowing China could soon be sending troops to the Allied front, Stalin had to do something to change the calculus and quickly.

This was specifically what I thought would go down let's see how the hands will play now

With Toyohara secure and the remnants of the fleet scurrying for port, it was time to show the Japanese the awesome power of Soviet technology. Ironically, the 3rd Strat Group was still recovering from its damaging attempt to strike Allied runways in northern Korea. But the TAC bombers groups (specifically their M/R escorts) in Vladivostok were just in range of Tokyo. And one specially modified bomber from 11th Tac Group [withdrawn from AI command for the mission] was soon flying into history.

Such a Stalinian way to do this

The cost this time was that the two Vladivostok-based TAC groups had to remain off line for repairs, having suffered badly during their long-distance desperate missions.

It's a miracle they survived the blast of the nukes themselves, but in my headcanon it's the jet engines making the escape a fast dash

(Bucharest had by then fallen to the Allies – Romanian surrender progress at 95%)

not good at all :/



If we can knock Manchuria and Poland out of the war quick, then Germany can be taken out with 2 nukes and it would be France's turn to taste the sun of the revolution

 

[Wraith11B]

Huh, so the TACs can indeed handle nukes... interesting.

Had the technology system been appropriate, it would have required a tech for miniaturization of nuclear weapons to permit tactical bombers to carry them... but that's just me and my defense-blog-reading ass.

 

[Eurasia]

Well, in game, Japan's Navy was proving a tough nut to crack. I can't think how much the Soviets would have paid in loses when they started invading the main islands. The use of atomic bombs was required. The Allied forces in Asia must have been surprised when the Japanese switched sides on them. Brazil joining the Allies is....annoying. But to be honest they don't bring much to the table. A few more infantry divisions. Some more resources. Of course, if the Allies share tech with them and give them free trade....win this war. Win this war faster. A million paper cuts can still defeat you. And if the minors exchange paper for chainsaws....

 

[serutan]

Maybe - it will soon be revealed

Meh. Just nukes. Was hoping it would be you taking over from the AI

 

[nuclearslurpee]

1 November 1947

With disposition adjustments completed and the A2A missile conversion process virtually complete, Stalin gave the coded order for movement to be in battle positions by 0200hr on 1 November 1947. Even though it would mean a winter campaign, his impatience would not let him wait any longer.

Because winter campaigns starting in November always go well for the Soviets, this is clearly the right decision and nothing can possibly go wrong here.

The gauntlet was thrown down at 0200hr on 1 November 1947: the orders were preceded by the phrase “This is NOT an exercise! The Red Storm Rises!”.

This is an important thing to get right, given the last time we tried this.

After the first day of fighting, the Soviets were reporting a reinforcement requirement of 9,720 men (the reserve now sitting at 6,447,000).

I suspect this will be one of the less interesting segments of the reporting - a welcome change compared to certain other Comintern AARs, aye?

So ended the first day of WW3, with some success but not enough attacking in Poland for Stalin’s liking, though it was early days yet.

Usually with these things, the initial battle takes the mot time and the following exploitation is more rapid. We shall see how this turns out.

Chapter 38: Part One – 2 to 15 November 1947

With the first day of WW3 covered in detail, there will be more summarising from this point. But with the first few weeks crucial, very busy and setting the scene for future events, the reporting for the first month of the war will be divided into two halves. Subsequent reports should be able to revert to a one-per-month schedule. This report covers the first two weeks of the war, broken into theatres on a weekly basis.

Already our commitment to one-per-month reporting wavers. I do not see this improving with time, usually these kinds of AARs only become more detailed if they are not tightly controlled at the outset!

Some of the border gore in Romania had been corrected

The most important victory.

NB: the transports have lost all organisation. I assume that is as a result of having performed a para drop.

I believe so. One of the many Pdox efforts to nerf paras without fixing the underlying problem.

So ended a tumultuous first two weeks of WW3 as the bold – or reckless – Soviet attempt to overthrow the Allied World Order had made modest be seemingly not decisive progress. Now the growing weight of reinforcing Allied forces were likely to be felt – and the enormous economic power of the US likely propping up the already strong main Allied economies.

This is terribly concerning. At least if we follow from Clausewitz, the defensive is the stronger form of warfare. Given the slow progress of the offensives it is a serious concern whether we have already reached our culminating point so soon, since even our biggest breakthrough is facing nothing but more stiff opposition. Hopefully Russian aerial success can turn the tide before it gets too much to turn back on the ground.

As an aside, the fact that the Soviets are blue and the Allies red in the casualty charts is confusing.

I've decided to push through with the full month of November reporting before I turn back to my other AARs again, to keep the momentum going (there's a lot of info wrangling involved in this one). The next period of eight days was big, so it will take a whole chapter by itself.

Called it.

I've found a good use for them, I think, and am glad I've boosted the range on those V2s to be able to strike enemy air bases in depth. The attempts to do so with STRAT far less damage and got two of my three Strat groups cut up quite badly.

It's too bad we can't develop stealth technology a few centuries out of date. Given all the other ahistorical nonsense in the late HoI3 techs it should be doable, but noooo...

Another big battle came to a head at 1500hr on the 21st, with a big defensive win at Biala Podlaska – a Polish border province directly south-west of Brzesc Litewski taken earlier in the month – (Soviets 4,503/42,570; Allies 5,061/23,196 killed). But by that night, it was under attack yet again.

By 2200hr that night, the southern Polish salient was being slowly eroded and remained under pressure. The Soviet offensive in this sector had ground to a halt and was if anything being slowly pushed back.

Also called this. We are now on the strategic defensive whether we like it or not, at least in the West. That is not good news.

But this last effort was not enough for the British to hold on in Toyohara: they broke at 0600hr and an hour later, the Soviet marines and follow-up infantry divisions had secured their objective – at last! But there was no respite for the Soviet invasion fleet, which now had the retreated Soviet paratroopers aboard and were still trying to unload the last division and the Marine Corps HQ. The Japanese CAGs again struck in waves at 0900hr. By midday, the 5th DD flotilla had been sent to the bottom.

Hooray!

The Japanese CAG strikes (eight CAG wings flying from three CVs and three CVLs) hit again on the morning of 24 November, two groups flying separately but both finishing at 1000hr.The results were devastating, with all the previous accumulated damage compounded by the massed strikes and simultaneous naval combat. The last Soviet troops were also ashore by 1000hr, by which time the surface battle had concluded in an almost Tsushima-like defeat for the Soviet Navy as the few remaining Red Navy ships bolted for the now-occupied port of Toyohara to get away as quickly as they could.

Oh no!

NB: it seemed very harsh to do this while watching the Tokyo Olympics on TV, but that’s HOI3 for you.

...hooray?

t midnight, Japan formally surrendered. They would (forcibly) join the Comintern, but not as a combatant: they were in a truce with their former Allied partners.

History may not always be the same, but even in this ATL it rhymes with itself.

Comment: given their new NU of just 1% and the whole of Chinese-occupied China at Allied mercy, this was probably just as well.

Not to mention how crippled their government and economy probably are by the low NU which will restrict so many law choices and give them all kinds of horrible events. Possibly numerous coups may happen, although this is not Stalin's problem anymore.

General Summary

Over the whole month, in all theatres the Soviets had lost more troops to ground combat than the Allies by nearly 9,000 men, but had caused almost double the air raid casualties. Of 291 land battles recorded, 155 had been won by the Soviets, 136 by the Allies – a trend that was turning in the Allies’ favour as the month ended. For both sides, well over half the casualties had come in the West. All up, over 464,000 troops had lost their lives so far in the first month of WW3.

​

It remained to be seen whether Soviet success in the East and their first use of atomic weapons could do anything significant to balance the stalemate in the West and the likely surrender of the Romanians.

With such high casualty rates we may yet have a chance at the very high strategic level, the Allies must not have as many men available as the Soviet Union can muster so we may eventually wear them down and be able to strike in a third phase of the war, with this failed offensive being the first phase and the grim defensive being the second.

The broad superiority of the VVS is also a big bright spot and certainly one to be played up in the next monthly issue of Pravda.

Meh. Just nukes. Was hoping it would be you taking over from the AI

Oh, come now, that would be blatantly unfair. The war would be over by Christmas then...

 

[El Pip]

Already our commitment to one-per-month reporting wavers. I do not see this improving with time, usually these kinds of AARs only become more detailed if they are not tightly controlled at the outset!

It is a well established phenomenon and one our author is somewhat prone to.

It is mildly concerning that despite the Germans being entirely out of fuel and supply the Western theatre is still bogging down, this is as good as it is going to get from a Soviet perspective and it is not going well. Fundamentally I have confidence the AI will cock things up somehow (particularly if games of TAG are being played), if nothing else the ongoing progress through Iraq will probably utterly confuse the British AI to deploy it's entire army to Cyprus or something similar, but it may well be a grinding fight until then.

 

[Surt]

10% NU per NUke, that is problematic for the western allies.

 

[RustyHunter]

Well, the Pacific Fleet did their duty, dying so a VP could be captured! The nuclear annihilation of Japan was quite something, I suspect Godzilla will be on steroids in this universe.

It's a bit disappointing that Japanese unity never comes back after being bombed. It's fortunate they didn't join the war because they literally would have surrendered immediately and gained you nothing. I would be ok if you modded their unity to be slightly higher (assuming they ever join the war).

I have to agree with NuclearSlurpee that the slow pace of advance in the west is concerning. The way to victory will likely be paved with nuclear bombs...

 

[Bullfilter]

Still a little while yet before I turn back to playing the next month through, but there were three chapters in a row last time. I'll get some comment replies done before heading over to Talking Turkey to play the next month of that.

The Sun has Risen
Let all bask in the nuclear light of Soviet progress
for the Dawn is ever the hope of the common man
Let the bourgeouis West skulk about in the night
The new Day is coming for them

Poetry to do honour to a horribly bleak Stalinist ploy - how very suitable!

the NAVs trump the surface ships, the CAGs trump the NAVs, and we don't seem to have enough INT / MRs to trump the CAGs to close the loop but getting there

In retrospect, I should have been building even more INT and MR over the last few years, but hindsight is a fine thing - that I wish I had in this case!

This was specifically what I thought would go down let's see how the hands will play now

Such a Stalinian way to do this

Very much so - it was in character for this ATL, I think.

It's a miracle they survived the blast of the nukes themselves, but in my headcanon it's the jet engines making the escape a fast dash

Yes indeed. And perhaps the Soviet nuclear development went down a different path, allowing a smaller bomb size. <waves magic dust over the whole thing as Soviet techs successfully attach nuclear warheads to their SS-6s>

If we can knock Manchuria and Poland out of the war quick, then Germany can be taken out with 2 nukes and it would be France's turn to taste the sun of the revolution

Manchuria - I hope so. Poland: can't see a way through to that any time soon, the way things are going. And given Germany has twice the NU Japan had, it may take more than two nukes - if we can ever get a hold of any of their VPs.

Huh, so the TACs can indeed handle nukes... interesting.

Had the technology system been appropriate, it would have required a tech for miniaturization of nuclear weapons to permit tactical bombers to carry them... but that's just me and my defense-blog-reading ass.

Indeed, magic dust sprinkled again, given they also fit on my NAVs and V2s!

Well, in game, Japan's Navy was proving a tough nut to crack. I can't think how much the Soviets would have paid in loses when they started invading the main islands. The use of atomic bombs was required. The Allied forces in Asia must have been surprised when the Japanese switched sides on them. Brazil joining the Allies is....annoying. But to be honest they don't bring much to the table. A few more infantry divisions. Some more resources. Of course, if the Allies share tech with them and give them free trade....win this war. Win this war faster. A million paper cuts can still defeat you. And if the minors exchange paper for chainsaws....

Agreed. Similar calculus as the US considered in OTL 1945. And they had massive naval superiority and no other enemies left by then.

I'm trying to win it, but with the AI army commitment, as I feared the swift blitzkrieg through northern Poland proved a pipe-dream. From here: a horrible war of attrition against industrially and numerically superior opponents in Europe? It's a tough proposition. Winning in Asia might help somewhat, though.

Meh. Just nukes. Was hoping it would be you taking over from the AI

Haha. Much as I was tempted, the micro-managing option was refused for standard land ops. Still, not many HOI3 AARs I've seen of late that feature mass nuclear strikes, so there's a little novelty there.

Because winter campaigns starting in November always go well for the Soviets, this is clearly the right decision and nothing can possibly go wrong here.

Ye-esss ... could be another example here!

This is an important thing to get right, given the last time we tried this.

Quite so.

I suspect this will be one of the less interesting segments of the reporting - a welcome change compared to certain other Comintern AARs, aye?

Oh indeed. If we run out of MP here, then the world will be in its hand-basket and already in Hell!

Usually with these things, the initial battle takes the mot time and the following exploitation is more rapid. We shall see how this turns out.

We will indeed.

Already our commitment to one-per-month reporting wavers. I do not see this improving with time, usually these kinds of AARs only become more detailed if they are not tightly controlled at the outset!

Yes, guilty this time, pleading extenuating circumstances. First month, scene setting for the long haul, and a big story to cover in Toyohara, so I did stretch it out. I really do plan to reel it back in though in subsequent outings. I'd stuck to it until now and plan to get back on track.

The most important victory.

Yes the War v Gore (border, not Al).

I believe so. One of the many Pdox efforts to nerf paras without fixing the underlying problem.

Ah well, I suppose it kinda works.

This is terribly concerning. At least if we follow from Clausewitz, the defensive is the stronger form of warfare. Given the slow progress of the offensives it is a serious concern whether we have already reached our culminating point so soon, since even our biggest breakthrough is facing nothing but more stiff opposition. Hopefully Russian aerial success can turn the tide before it gets too much to turn back on the ground.

It is a concern, and one that grew during the rest of the month. The VVS was keeping us in it, but it transpired I needed more of them to turn it from superiority and denial into air supremacy.

As an aside, the fact that the Soviets are blue and the Allies red in the casualty charts is confusing.

Yes, I think about it often, but was so used to enemy on a battle map marked in red and friendlies blue that I just can't change it.

Called it.

Fair cop, but one can have goals and principles without being too inflexibly bound to them. <he says, glancing around to see if anyone smirks and shakes their head>

It's too bad we can't develop stealth technology a few centuries out of date. Given all the other ahistorical nonsense in the late HoI3 techs it should be doable, but noooo...

A nice thought (!?). But I would have settled for fair peace treaties against Manchuria and Japan at the end of WW2 and an AI willing to attack properly when ordered to!

Also called this. We are now on the strategic defensive whether we like it or not, at least in the West. That is not good news.

Yes, it was my fear from the start. Still, we ain't done with yet.

Hooray!

Oh no!

...hooray?

Nothing comes without a cost, it seems. A large part of the Navy and three nukes to extract Japan from the war? Probably worth it, considering how antiquated the navy was.

History may not always be the same, but even in this ATL it rhymes with itself.

True.

Not to mention how crippled their government and economy probably are by the low NU which will restrict so many law choices and give them all kinds of horrible events. Possibly numerous coups may happen, although this is not Stalin's problem anymore.

Yes, I don't think I'll be getting much out of them, other than their absence from the ranks of the enemy. I really needed them to start on my side in this one, plus Manchuria, which would have allowed me to send far more back to help in the west.

With such high casualty rates we may yet have a chance at the very high strategic level, the Allies must not have as many men available as the Soviet Union can muster so we may eventually wear them down and be able to strike in a third phase of the war, with this failed offensive being the first phase and the grim defensive being the second.

The broad superiority of the VVS is also a big bright spot and certainly one to be played up in the next monthly issue of Pravda.

It may come to that, but the Allies really do have a lot of stuff reinforcing them all the time. The VVS, nukes and maybe German supply problems may be the only thing keeping us in it for now.

Oh, come now, that would be blatantly unfair. The war would be over by Christmas then...

This one is shaping up like an Olympic high-jump, with the bar set very high. As someone described it on TV here recently, its like trying to jump well over the top of your front door, without touching it!

It is a well established phenomenon and one our author is somewhat prone to.

Per above, I beg the indulgence of my dear readAARs and will try to dig myself back out again soon!

It is mildly concerning that despite the Germans being entirely out of fuel and supply the Western theatre is still bogging down, this is as good as it is going to get from a Soviet perspective and it is not going well. Fundamentally I have confidence the AI will cock things up somehow (particularly if games of TAG are being played), if nothing else the ongoing progress through Iraq will probably utterly confuse the British AI to deploy it's entire army to Cyprus or something similar, but it may well be a grinding fight until then.

I suspect this is true, and was not really optimistic given how the generals didn't attack en masse in the abortive first 'exercise', either, even with revised dispositions, orders and objectives.

There's no tagging at all in this one and each turn gets played through a month at a time. Any tagging done purely for AAR info is always on an old save that is not re-saved.

I could confuse the British AI, perhaps, but it is really France, Germany and the other Western European Allies (basically all of Europe) that I need to trip up, and it's not happening yet. Will see if anything gives as we grind on.

10% NU per NUke, that is problematic for the western allies.

But I need to take VPs first and may well run out of nukes knocking them out, even if I can take them.

Well, the Pacific Fleet did their duty, dying so a VP could be captured! The nuclear annihilation of Japan was quite something, I suspect Godzilla will be on steroids in this universe.

They did. One more nuke than the US required in OTL.

It's a bit disappointing that Japanese unity never comes back after being bombed. It's fortunate they didn't join the war because they literally would have surrendered immediately and gained you nothing. I would be ok if you modded their unity to be slightly higher (assuming they ever join the war).

Yeah, not expecting anything out of them now, but it was indeed best they remained in truce as the Chinese portion would have been quickly overrun. I won't mod the unity, on gebneral 'making this as hard as I can' principles!

I have to agree with NuclearSlurpee that the slow pace of advance in the west is concerning. The way to victory will likely be paved with nuclear bombs...

True. But given I can't use them against troops, the prospects are not immediately encouraging.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

I could confuse the British AI, perhaps, but it is really France, Germany and the other Western European Allies (basically all of Europe) that I need to trip up, and it's not happening yet. Will see if anything gives as we grind on.

You cannot say this to El Pip, who firmly believes that the British are the only power that ever did anything worth writing about anyways.

I mean, with this AI he's not wrong, but still.

 

[Wraith11B]

I'm wondering how many people misread the "War v. Gore (Border, not Al)" as AI as in what is failing at every turn versus The Former Vice President.