Quick and Dirty 2: A Soviet Resurgence and WW3 (HOI3 - March 1944 start)

[Eurasia]

Just a suggestion but maybe save the atomics for the UK? As Germany I found the bombs useful for taking them out without invading them.

 

[Bullfilter]

Just a suggestion but maybe save the atomics for the UK? As Germany I found the bombs useful for taking them out without invading them.

Interesting. I’ll look at that - including whether I have to invade them to rack up my twelve victory condition objective (the Allies currently sit on 13 out of their 15 after taking out Japan). But if I do want to attack them, I could try to leave one in the stockpile and accrue another one or two by the time it’s an issue. But if I find i need them to take down Germany and France before bleeding out, I’m afraid Berlin and Paris will be going up in smoke!

 

[diskoerekto]

Thanks for reminding me about the jet engines - I’ll have to check on them again, as I recall that was one of the things I was waiting for before attacking the West. There’s the time to finish the research then for units to upgrade. Is it a big enough difference to delay any DoW until that is done?

'47 February, I think I'd wait for the airplanes to get upgraded, it can be the gamechanger during the initial assault but I don't know how long the upgrade would take.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

The Soviets have begun to close the noose on Kabul in their war against the last Axis power. But the Afghan capital, with its mountains and forts, will likely be a touch nut to crack, if defended properly.

So not a tough nut at all, given the AI.

28 October

The third battle for Kabul was won by the Soviets at 2200hr (Soviets 199/16,993; Afghans 211/23,500 killed). But the difficult terrain and often poor weather meant the Afghan capital would not be occupied before the month ended.

So, aside from slow movement, really no nuts to crack at all, as expected.

Archangelsk Theatre had 227,000 men available in three Army Groups (or Fronts in Soviet parlance) and their main task was to take the two isolated ports on the Norwegian border with Finland, which were heavily defended by the Norwegian Army.

I can't help but wonder if Soviet planning is a bit too optimistic. Seems like it would make more sense to plan on holding this line on what is really not hospitable terrain for any kind of offensive (and even if the line is breached, nothing of great importance is threatened), and to dedicate as many forces as possible to a key offensive thrust in Europe main.

The Baltic Theatre had a narrow front line assigned, but it faced the huge Germany Army massed on the border of Eastern Prussia. It had 532,000 men assigned to two Fronts and was tasked with taking Königsberg and Danzig. They were optimistic about the relative combat power on the border, but these objectives would surely prove difficult to take. But without taking German territory, it was believed nuking Berlin alone would not be enough to force a surrender.

Similar here. Any attack into Ostpreussen is likely to lead nowhere, but holding the line shouldn't be too impossible. On the other hand, the main thrust clearly needs to be through Poland which is weak and opens a superhighway to the rest of the West.

 

[stnylan]

One hopes those frontline commanders are accurately reporting their enthusiasm, and not just trying to make things look overly optimistic. If they lie, I hope they are as enthustiastic to offer restitution to the People of the Soviet Union with a minimum of red tape (though a little crimson spatter may be unavoidable, one hopes they at least ensure to avoid messing with the maps).

The last front does look a mite ungainly.

 

[Wraith11B]

It could be that having multiple Army Group commands for Hungary and Romania might be a good idea, and having multiple theater and associated chains would be redundant. Could be that's the better option for sure.

 

[Eurasia]

Sometimes fewer HQs also means saving on Manpower. Sometimes people forget that a nice looking OOB also takes up a lot of men.

 

[Surt]

Sometimes fewer HQs also means saving on Manpower. Sometimes people forget that a nice looking OOB also takes up a lot of men.

A good looking OOB >> saving men.

 

[Wraith11B]

@Surt speaks true, because quite honestly, the thing that bothered me the most about my playthrough in my AAR towards the end was that everything moved too well towards exact application of perfection: a perfect OOB of exactly five divisions per corps and five corps per army... Reading around, some corps were just two divisions, others four, and almost never five.

 

[roverS3]

One would almost hope that the Afghan war becomes the quagmire it was historically, if only for the sake of holding on to US Lend Lease and Wartime economic laws for as long as possible until WW3 starts. In any case, it really does look like this Soviet Union will be the definite underdog in a war with the expanded Allied nations. It will be a challenging war, and with AI control, victory may not be guaranteed. Of course, with nukes, you might tip the balance, though it's questionable for how long the USSR will maintain the lead in Nuclear weapons technology once the Brits and the Americans start collaborating on a rapid nuclear research and armament programme. Of course, if you de enough damage upfront, such a programme may not get off the ground at all. In any case, there's exciting stuff in the pipeline.

 

[El Pip]

A good looking OOB >> saving men.

The Commissariat approve of this message.

Unlike the slow progress through Afghanistan, which they very much do not approve of. Too many people making excuses about distance, terrain, logistics or common sense. These things did not matter to Marx so they should not matter to our generals. They must show some true Soviet stakhanovite spirit and make faster progress. There is always 9mm motivation should they continue to fail.

 

[Bullfilter]

The time draws near for another crack at this difficult task, thus some more comment feedback.

'47 February, I think I'd wait for the airplanes to get upgraded, it can be the gamechanger during the initial assault but I don't know how long the upgrade would take.

I'll keep an eye on it. That would allow a few months of lead-up for new units to deploy, those upgrades to finish and the Middle East-Central Asian Theatre to shake out again after Afghanistan is wrapped up. Then again, Uncle Joe's finger may get itchy on that red button before then ...

So not a tough nut at all, given the AI.

So, aside from slow movement, really no nuts to crack at all, as expected.

I guess it took a few battles, one of them quite decent, to win though nothing too demanding. Time and movement accounts for the rest of the delay.

I can't help but wonder if Soviet planning is a bit too optimistic. Seems like it would make more sense to plan on holding this line on what is really not hospitable terrain for any kind of offensive (and even if the line is breached, nothing of great importance is threatened), and to dedicate as many forces as possible to a key offensive thrust in Europe main.

Similar here. Any attack into Ostpreussen is likely to lead nowhere, but holding the line shouldn't be too impossible. On the other hand, the main thrust clearly needs to be through Poland which is weak and opens a superhighway to the rest of the West.

This could be the case. Those broad objectives for now are more designed to ensure formation get into/stay in position in the lead-up to a DoW. Before then, the command chain, level of AI delegation and subordinate objectives will need to be refined.

One hopes those frontline commanders are accurately reporting their enthusiasm, and not just trying to make things look overly optimistic. If they lie, I hope they are as enthustiastic to offer restitution to the People of the Soviet Union with a minimum of red tape (though a little crimson spatter may be unavoidable, one hopes they at least ensure to avoid messing with the maps).

The last front does look a mite ungainly.

They could well be optimistic, but we shall see. When it comes, one suspects the effusion of blood will be considerable!

It could be that having multiple Army Group commands for Hungary and Romania might be a good idea, and having multiple theater and associated chains would be redundant. Could be that's the better option for sure.

Maybe, will see what's on offer when I get down to the more detailed arrangements. Basically, at the moment the OOB there will be whatever the AI had when it was in control of the Soviets when I was playing France, the one broad theatre rationalisation I did early on when taking over, plus ad hoc unit additions that have come since from production. However, I'm not planning to go overboard in changing it all too much - otherwise it wouldn't be quick and dirty!

Sometimes fewer HQs also means saving on Manpower. Sometimes people forget that a nice looking OOB also takes up a lot of men.

And less confusion, though sometimes less commander coverage once units spread out. At least the USSR doesn't need to worry about manpower (oh how I wish they could transfer a cool half million men of so over to the UGNR in Talking Turkey!)

A good looking OOB >> saving men.

@Surt speaks true, because quite honestly, the thing that bothered me the most about my playthrough in my AAR towards the end was that everything moved too well towards exact application of perfection: a perfect OOB of exactly five divisions per corps and five corps per army... Reading around, some corps were just two divisions, others four, and almost never five.

Per above, I'm not going to do too much tweaking of the command chains on the Western Front: there's just too much of it and it won't be a micro-managed affair. The vibe is going to be largely as it was in the Far East, but on a larger scale: leave it all up to Army or maybe Army Group commanders to handle it all (and stuff it up), while I tweak objectives and sometimes switch formations from one command to another if necessary.

I only plan to retain detailed control of the strategic air command (STRAT, V1, V2 and atomic weapons), the Navy and some specialist units (say paratroopers + air transports).

One would almost hope that the Afghan war becomes the quagmire it was historically, if only for the sake of holding on to US Lend Lease and Wartime economic laws for as long as possible until WW3 starts. In any case, it really does look like this Soviet Union will be the definite underdog in a war with the expanded Allied nations. It will be a challenging war, and with AI control, victory may not be guaranteed. Of course, with nukes, you might tip the balance, though it's questionable for how long the USSR will maintain the lead in Nuclear weapons technology once the Brits and the Americans start collaborating on a rapid nuclear research and armament programme. Of course, if you de enough damage upfront, such a programme may not get off the ground at all. In any case, there's exciting stuff in the pipeline.

I think it is almost done, with that being the double-edged sword, as you note (re lend lease, wartime economy etc). I reckon we will probably be overwhelmed, with too many fronts to defend and without the boost of ground and armed forces I was pinning my hopes on in Asia from Japan and Manchuria, plus now having to fight China as well. Let alone all those modern Western forces, including the Germans (again, this time with powerful Allies to back them up).

Not having played the nukes before, no fought an Unthinkable campaign against victorious Allies in Europe proper, while I suspect they may well wipe the floor with me, I really don't know how it will go. But the point of testing approaches ...

Unlike the slow progress through Afghanistan, which they very much do not approve of. Too many people making excuses about distance, terrain, logistics or common sense. These things did not matter to Marx so they should not matter to our generals. They must show some true Soviet stakhanovite spirit and make faster progress. There is always 9mm motivation should they continue to fail.

Common sense: highly over-rated and in most cases counter-revolutionary and treasonous! The dialectic will triumph! Even if we have to shoot a few to encourage the rest.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 33 – November 1946​

Introduction

Kabul is close to being occupied as Soviet forces advance on it. Preparations continue on the Western Border with Allied Europe for a possible future conflict. And Soviet nuclear and rocket scientists continue to develop the new ‘super weapons’ that Hitler used to boast about but that the USSR now already has.

******​

Afghanistan and the Middle East

As the advance on Kabul continued, at 0600hr on 7 November 9 Tank Div, advancing from Ghazni, encountered Afghan Army stragglers in Jalalabad. The enemy had no desire to fight and ran. But not before the Soviet CAS wings based in Stalinabad made their first and only bombing run of the Afghan Campaign, causing the fleeing troops over a hundred casualties.

​

Three days later, Soviet mountain troops were the first into Kabul. At midnight on , the last Axis country surrendered, officially ending the Second World War on 11 November 1946 - 28 years to the day after the end of the Great War.

​

The Afghan Army now switched sides to the Comintern, but the massive US Lend Lease ended.

Persia and Afghanistan were next given (or had re-confirmed) some objectives (defensive and offensive) to plan for.

​

And the Caucasus Theatre began to reorganise and give new objectives to its three armies. The small 4th Army, until that point a reserve 'holding' formation, was allocated three garrison divisions to allow a token defence along the Turkish border (Turkey remaining firmly neutral a mainly pro-Comintern for now). They would later receive a corps HQ to control them directly.

​

The 13th Army was allocated 106,000 men in three corps and tasked to defend the border with Iraq (an Allied puppet state). They should have some Persian support for the mission.

​

The 19th Army, with about 80,000 men in two corps, would guard the border with Pakistan (also an Allied puppet), where some British troops had already been spotted.

******​

Post-War Industry

The end of the war brought a legal changes, the main effects of which were to reduce production capacity (on top of the loss of Lend-Lease), recruiting (the latter not a great worry, given the massive trained manpower surplus) and officer training (more of a detriment).

​

There was also a warning that keeping the Army mobilised during peacetime would be ‘very costly’ – though how much was not clear. [Anyone recall what the impost is?]

The net effect on production of the legal and lend-lease changes was to take around 230 IC off headline IC. Consumer goods requirements also rose sharply, while supply production needed to be increased significantly: especially with all the redeployments going on, including on the Western Border where a major consolidation and reorganisation had commenced. New unit production was slashed and most projects were relegated to ‘below the line’.

******​

General Events

Finland announced it was mobilising on 13 November – a small but welcome development.

​

The ‘new-old’ and gleamingly obsolete battleship Sovyetsky Soyuz was commissioned on 17 November into the Red Banner Pacific Fleet, giving each of the two Pacific battle fleets a battleship as flagship. And the fast 27th Tank Div was deployed into the Lwow Theatre on the Polish border.

​

War Ministry officials advised that upgrading the entire air fleet to jet engines (which would no doubt be massively expensive) should commence in three months, on 26 February 1947.

As the paratroop forces were concentrated in the Far East, it was realised on 26 November that another transport wing would be needed to provide enough airlift for the recently expanded four-brigade para division. This project was put to the top of the queue to ensure maximum effort.

​

That day, another new INT wing was deployed in the West.

​

Before this, a number of VVS groups of various types had been transferred from the Far East back to the west and put under command at Army HQ levels. Many of these orders had to be disabled when they were rotated between airfields so frequently they became almost completely disorganised [the AI just went crazy with them: I’ll have to re-assign them once WW3 beckons].

******​

Monthly Summaries

Research. Three technical advances – one of them in the crucial area of nuclear bomb production – were made during the month. Though that was temporarily suspended as it was running way ‘ahead of time’ (the next advance wouldn’t have come for another 11 months).

​

Intelligence. The apprehension of foreign agents continued its downward trajectory. The missions in Spain and Turkey had gone well, with no Soviet agents lost (there’s a 1/3 c-e, 2/3 party influence mission in each) and some good progress made on local Communist party support – especially in Spain.

​

Production. The large-scale (and continuing) post-war redeployments had increased supply consumption markedly, driving down the stockpile and forcing a further increase to supply production. A reserve of infrastructure and strategic weapons awaited deployment when required. The third Soviet nuclear device should be ready on 1 January 1947 (after the recent increase in bomb-making capacity to 0.4 per month).

​

Diplomacy. The diplomatic report showed the Axis was now defunct – although Saudi Arabia remained that way inclined. The three Chinese warlord states were still moving steadily towards the Comintern orbit, but Spain and Turkey could draw no closer given countervailing Allied influence.

******​

Central and Far East Asia

As November ended, forces in the Caucasus Theatre were gradually making their way (all under AI auspices) to their new deployment zones.

​

The Far Eastern Theatre’s forces – 751,000 ground troops and almost all the Red Navy – had essentially been in position since October. Marine and paratroop formations were kept under Theatre (ie human) control.

******​

General Reorganisation

The mid-November general reorganisation in the west had generally evened up the sizes of armies somewhat (which would be under AI control), culling out some excess HQs, getting rid of single-division corps, etc. Each Front (ie Army Group level) was given a relevant geographical designation.

These objectives, stances and some organisational details would be refined as time went on: the initial tasks (mainly commenced mid month) were to get formations into position and (hopefully) settled down by the beginning of 1947.

The general situation on the Western border, as at end November 1946 – excluding Finland

******​

Archangelsk Theatre

27ya Army (the larger of the two in the Archangelsk Theatre) was given the offensive objective of the sole Norwegian port in the north – Kirkenes. 17th Army would take on a defensive role for now.

******​

Baltic Theatre

This theatre had six armies under the command of two Fronts, facing off against the massive German presence on the border with East Prussia. A mix of defensive and offensive preparation missions were assigned to get units into position, but these would be adjusted once an operational contingency plan had been fully formulated.

The South West Front had 26ya, 8ya and 20th Armies assigned.

​

The Leningrad Front had 13ya, 3rd and 18th Armies assigned.

******​

Lwow Theatre

This large theatre had ten armies under the command of three Fronts facing Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Allied defences arrayed against them ranged from thin to dense and – in Romania – chaotic.

The Polish Front had four armies assigned – 14ya, 23ya, 9th and 6th – each with offensive objectives. A nascent operational plan was to see if the large German concentration of forces in East Prussia could perhaps be encircled by an offensive through Poland, perhaps aiming for the Baltic coast around Danzig.

​

The smaller Hungarian Front had a similar role envisaged, to breakthrough on concentrated frontages towards Bratislava and Budapest in depth, via Kosice and Debrecen as intermediate objectives. It had two armies – 5ya and 10th – under command for these tasks.

​

The sprawling Romanian Front had four armies under command – 10th (may have to rename that), 8th, 12th and 1st. They faced some heavy concentrations of Allied troops – including French forces either under their own control or in expeditionary forces – and some sparsely defended frontiers. For now, they had a range of ambitious offensive objectives in an often chaotic hodgepodge of gory borders.

******​

December would see another re-assessment of operational tasks, production priorities, diplomatic and intelligence efforts. A plan of manoeuvre and broad timeline would need to be devised for Operation Unthinkable on the West.

 

[Surt]

Bulgaria looks vulnerable ...

 

[RustyHunter]

France has some really tough looking divisions...I only skimmed your France prologue to this, so what was your 'standard' inf division?

 

[roverS3]

Mobilisation in peacetime costs you extra supplies, but also a lot of extra consumer goods as the amount of consumer goods required to avoid dissent is based on the number of Brigades, but non-mobilised reserve Brigades only count as 1/4 or 1/3 or 1/2, depending on your conscription laws. The cost of demobilising is manpower and IC as you wont get back the amount of manpower you take out of the army. So you'll have to invest extra manpower when remobilising. And then there is IC (representing weapons and equipment of the demobilising soldiers), which you also lose, as when you re-mobilise you have to reinforce all those units with new weapons, but depending on how long between you demobilise and remobilise, you will likely make that back in reduced supply production and consumer goods expenditure.

As to the Soviet Union's current situation, it's not great really. It is in your interest to declare war sooner rather than later as you're at a significant economic disadvantage, though you still have to make sure everything is in place for the first steps of the offensive, of course. Let's just say, you're going to need those nukes or a miracle to win ww3. Maybe the nukes are the miracle?

Looking forward to that next war, however soon it may come.

 

[El Pip]

Post-War Industry​

The end of the war brought a legal changes, the main effects of which were to reduce production capacity (on top of the loss of Lend-Lease), recruiting (the latter not a great worry, given the massive trained manpower surplus) and officer training (more of a detriment).

​

There is something marvellously Soviet about this, the idea that due to an outbreak of Peace the country is forced to step down to merely running a "War Economy". The implication being that a conflict with Afghanistan was such an existential threat that the Politburo and Gosplan were running some kind of intense super-war economy which even they realised was not actually sustainable, as if such a thing could exist. Then there is just the Double-Talk delight of peace resulting in a country starting to run a War Economy. Really Paradox should have thought of a better name for the 'one step down from max' step on that particular Law.

 

[diskoerekto]

it's gonna be difficult man, it's gonna be really difficult

 

[Surt]

it's gonna be difficult man, it's gonna be really difficult

Do you doubt the collective comrade? The puny capitalist and proto-fascist feudalists will be wiped from the map in no time.
Any propaganda that suggest the USA could be a threat is capitalist misinformation, do you doubt it comrade? if so comrade Beria has an offer for you!

 

[diskoerekto]

Do you doubt the collective comrade? The puny capitalist and proto-fascist feudalists will be wiped from the map in no time.
Any propaganda that suggest the USA could be a threat is capitalist misinformation, do you doubt it comrade? if so comrade Beria has an offer for you!

my resolution is steel with regards to our red army and our comrades in arms, but I have zero confidence in the generals, unfortunately!