While I feel CK3 has the best potential vis a vis CK2, I can empathize with some points the OP mentioned in his extensive post.
However, let me center on the part where I disagree the most: events, random events firing in a controlled fashion (not thrice every year, for sure!) are the bread and butter of the experience of narrating a unique story that builds inside our heads while playing CK3. If anything, the devs in their next DLC should make an extra effort to develop more and more events to make our experience more unique in playing the game.
I don't feel the same way as you. Events are only interesting the first time but afterward, I just read what the consequences are and click on the most beneficial decision. If events are coded in a way that they are significantly different each time it 'could' be interesting... Example: Event about a duel that gives a different description depending on the personality traits of the character. Like a kind character reluctant to kill an enemy and a sadistic character bulging out eyeballs. I know that there already decisions based on personality traits, but I specifically mean that the entire description of the event should be changed so you rarely read the same thing twice. It would be way too much work for little reward though and in the end, it just remains a scripted wall of text. For me, stories form because the strategic gameplay synchronizes with the characters. Here is an example:
- In CK3 there is an event about you as a child bonding with a pet, it was a fun read the first time around but I skipped reading it the 2nd time and just looked at the consequences of my decision. All the event did was just giving you a +1 in diplomacy, and some follow up events like the dog biting a council member, but it all felt very insignificant in the grand scheme of things. In other words, it didn't synchronize with the gameplay, the story of my characters didn't progress because I did something, the story progressed because it was scripted that this event has xx% of spawning. Events like this are fine, but they are not the reason why I am immersed because I didn't really do anything.
Here is an example of when I was immersed by character-driven gameplay in a PDX game. In CK2 I was playing as a duke in France, who had a lot of learning skill but was a misguided warrior. I went on a crusade were his martial skill slightly improved, and he eventually became a tough soldier, still I wasn't able to do much within the realm because I was one of the weaker dukes, I still had a lot of piety due to my learning skill and crusade experience. Than the Aztec invaded and conquered all of France, I was banished to 1 holding I had in Italy, but martial skill did increase again to skillful tactician because I was a commander in the French army. With the piety I got I recruited Holy orders to reconquer my holdings in France, once again I improved in martial to brilliant strategist, and eventually conquered all remaining holding in the French the jure making me king of France. I went from a weak misguided warrior to a martial legend. All of this happened without a single special event.
The second example is in a different series Imperator Rome. I was playing as Bactria and had a king + heir with really poor stats. The bad news was that both the Mauryans and Persians were at my doorstep. To strengthen my position I invaded the northern tribal kingdoms, and I received a new character with 15 Martial skill, admittedly during an event. But to be fair the event basically just said here is a good character do you want to recruit him? There wasn't really any story and it didn't hurt the experience. Anyway I used the character as a commander in my defensive wars against the Mauryans and he became more and more popular and I was getting attached to him. Eventually I adopted him, but my heir died, making him the new heir. He eventually became king and went from a nobody to the savior and king of Bactria, but not before a massive civil war broke between the other pretenders of the king.
Maybe an example from an entirely different franchise like Total War: Three Kingdoms. I wasn't immersed in the characters because of the events that fired during the game, I was immersed because the characters grew based on my decision. Liu Bei didn't form a friendship with Cao Cao in my campaign thanks to events, but because I put them together as commanders in many battles. Making it all the more spectacular when Cao Cao left my faction to join the enemy, I was actually in a situation where I dueled Cao Cao with Liu Bei later in a campaign. None of this wouldn't have felt as personal if it was just railroaded in events. I was hoping CK3 would be full with epic stuff like this, but it rarely happens in a natural way.
My point is that stories need to form organically in gameplay, and shouldn't rely just on events. Yes events can spice up things significantly because I wouldn't have received the martial character in IR without the help of events, but the way the story progressed was not because of events but because of the way I made strategic decisions throughout my campaign.
