'Odin' and Stalin's Secret Committee

[nuclearslurpee]

Is HOI3 like HOI2 where the Germans won't launch Barbarossa if they think the SU is too strong?

There is a chance of this, yes. However, AI Germany is very realistic in that they routinely overestimate their strength, so it's quite rare and usually only happens when the wider war does not proceed as smoothly as the devs intended (most often, the Norway invasion stalls).

 

[roverS3]

XSM for Sinkiang actually sounds like a very credible pretext for war in mainland Asia. We should assist our ally in reclaiming what is rightfully theirs. We intended to only limit it to local border changes (ie. XSM) instead of the whole China they claim as theirs, but since the rest of the Chinese states joined in... Perhaps they can be amicably divided between Sinkiang and Communist China to satisfy the claims of both parties, unify China and bring peace and stability to the region. In Europe, well, most of Poland is still occupied, and the workers of Germany and Czechoslovakia still suffer under the fascist regime. Is it cosmetic in the eyes of an unbiased observer, probably, but certainly less so than Axis declarations of war so far, and I don't think the Allies would look too closely at our story as long as it brought us into conflict with the Axis.

Sinkiang was officially part of China, and it would be expected that there are some lingering border disputes with the Xibei San Ma province next door...
On that last point, you're probably right that the Allies won't care why we declare war on the Axis, as long as we do... This is somewhat funny as historically Stalin was asking the Allies for a Second European front all the time... Here the British and US diplomats must be trying their best to convince the Soviet Union to declare war so they can safeguard SE Asia, and even North Africa...

Day X in Pravda : "Eurasia is at war with Eastasia and has always been at war with Eastasia.
Day X+1 in Pravda : "Eurasia is at war with Oceania and has always been at war with Oceania."

Yes, George Orwell, that is a possibility, though it isn't even remotely believable, nor subtle... maybe that's exactly what we need.

Opposition? What opposition?

It's a very exotic thing, they have oppositions in the Allied nations, but in the Soviet Union, 'opposition' is definitely a foreign concept that would only get in the way of the rightful and efficient government of the people...

So what we need is the Chinese Communists to call us for help?

They almost close enough to join the Comintern, though their neutrality needs to continue going down a bit before they will actually be able to... I'm hoping the surrender of the Philippines will be enough.

Interesting now to see if the Germans believe they have enough strength gathered to remove the decision for war from Stalin’s hands in the next few months. You may have made it too hard for them to chance their arm! In any case, don’t bother with Afghanistan - just not worth it!

Afghanistan would be very easy to take (in HOI3), with now three Airborne Rifle Divisions, we can take out the important locations easily. But as you say, there isn't anything of interest there, so why bother?

Is HOI3 like HOI2 where the Germans won't launch Barbarossa if they think the SU is too strong?

There is a chance of this, yes. However, AI Germany is very realistic in that they routinely overestimate their strength, so it's quite rare and usually only happens when the wider war does not proceed as smoothly as the devs intended (most often, the Norway invasion stalls).

The Germans didn't attack in 1941 because the Norway campaign wasn't wrapped up in time. (they ran out of transports after the first wave of landings and had parity in numbers with the Norwegians for more than a year, before they managed to take a province on the Swedish border and move in mass reinforcements through Sweden.) This, and the significant increase in the number of units on the border makes me suspect that they will attack this spring, or summer... I'm adding only Artillery Regiments to the front itself, so the amount of Divisions on my side of the border won't increase (the tank and Mobile units are kept in reserve some distance behind the front. At first glance, and with their low opinion of Slavic people, the Nazi's must be thinking we are ripe for the picking as soon as they see fit...
As for the game mechanic, I believe it was based on the number of Brigades... The Germans needed to have 100% of the number of Soviet Brigades on the border itself to declare war before June 1941, and 50% to declare war before 1942, once it's 1942, it's free for all, according to the Wiki.

I like this debate, lot's of interesting possibilities to declare war, I will return with an update that's not a 10-day report soon.

 

[Bullfilter]

I hope Odin, 11 and the rest are able to make a return some time soon. They are missed - and we are wondering whether the Germans will ever pluck up the courage to attack.

 

[roverS3]

I hope Odin, 11 and the rest are able to make a return some time soon. They are missed -

Soon, clearly isn't as soon as I thought it would be... Lot's of things happened, I was distracted by a new game I got for my birthday (Transport Fever, it has trains in it, hard not to be distracted...). Then I took a last minute student job, I also spent some time with new and old friends before the year got underway and everyone is too busy to do anything. And with the start of the year, my sister broke her leg, and I had to take care of her.

When I have had time to work on the AAR, I've had some trouble with the next post, which will be about a large scale Military exercise in the Lwow area. The trouble being that I've been unable to find out any information on what a military exercise of the time would be like for the commanders involved, this means that I'm making it all up, so there might be certain inaccuracies. It only makes sense for the Red Army to hold large exercises at this point, to prepare the Red Army for a probable fight, for propaganda purposes, and to dissuade potential enemies from perpetrating, or joining an Invasion attempt on the Soviet Union.

As for 11, I've actually written a partial draft of the next big update on her adventures, but the timing isn't right yet, as news from 11 is definitely intermittent, as with all intelligence operations before encrypted satellite telephone...

I will need another day or two to complete another job I'm doing from home.

we are wondering whether the Germans will ever pluck up the courage to attack.

So am I...

This AAR will return...

 

[Bullfilter]

Just checking in, hoping that all is well and the AAR can eventually return. I’m sure I am not the only fan out there hoping so. It is one of the leading HOI3 AARs on the boards!

 

[roverS3]

Just checking in, hoping that all is well and the AAR can eventually return. I’m sure I am not the only fan out there hoping so. It is one of the leading HOI3 AARs on the boards!

I'm still alive,
I hope you too are alive and well,
Thank you for checking in,
This semester has proven more challenging than expected, even when not factoring in the personal issues discussed above.
My sister's leg has healed well, so she can be somewhat more independent, though my mother remains very busy with her job, which means that I'm taking more responsibility in the household. (or at least trying to do so).
In an effort to challenge myself musically, I joined a second, more demanding, orchestra. It's a lot of fun and really takes my mind off the stress of my day to day life.
At university, the design studio I chose proved to be more demanding than expected. (trying to get my Master's in Architecture by 2020)
My grandmother has recently been hospitalised, for the final time. As soon as I get a small breather I go and visit her.
I also took another relatively small job last week.
Adding all this up results in my having nearly no (productive) time left for HOI3 or this AAR.

My schedule remains quite unpredictable, so maybe I'll find the time to finish the next report, before Christmas, though I wouldn't hold my breath too much... I am eyeing a slightly less demanding studio next semester, as I'd like to have fewer shortened nights, and ideally some time for this endeavour. (working when you really should be sleeping really gets old, and throughout the years my physical and emotional tolerance for a lack of sleep has steadily decreased, alongside my nightly productivity). I really enjoy HOI3, and writing for the AAR, and I will definitely return to it eventually, as soon as I can really turn my attention to it for several hours...
I did get some inspiration on how to cover the military exercises, and have made some progress on said update, but I didn't manage to actually finish writing it, yet. Your encouraging words will definitely strengthen my resolve to get writing again, as soon as I get the opportunity, whether it's next week, next month, or even next year...

I'm guessing we'll all be waiting just that little bit longer for operation Barbarossa to kick off.

Greetings,

RoverS3

 

[Bullfilter]

All well here my friend. You certainly have a full RL plate at the moment! Best of luck with it all and, of course, while we look forward to the resumption of the AAR it must be when you can afford the time and nervous energy! Rest assured, Agent SkitalecS3 still does his job in TT-land, without you having to lift a finger.

 

[roverS3]

The 16th of February 1942, a bar in Moskva, -9,5°C, 9 pm Moscow Time,

Out for a drink after days spent with 'Dva' and 'Chteyre' ', subtly nudging this big red army exercise into something slightly more useful than a simple propaganda stunt (not that I have anything against a good propaganda stunt). I found someone had left behind a copy of today's 'Pravda' on the table, let's see what the propaganda says:

As expected, there were some slight exaggerations, the number of troops was barely half the number stated in the article, the number of tanks, barely a third. However, the tanks shown in the article are part of a limited run of KV-1S tanks (soon replaced by the vastly superior IS-2), the rare ones used in the exercise were used for target practice. This subterfuge, suggested by 'Dva', is meant for foreign consumption, of course. Before the war it was common knowledge that Soviet tanks really weren't all that great, we would all prefer if our potential enemies keep believing that, if only for the surprised look on their faces when they're faced with their first IS-2, T-34, or Su-152.

I'll send out the next report on the 18th, as planned,

Greetings,

'Odin'
​

__________________________________________________________________________________________
I'm back. I wanted to frame this article in a more elaborate way initially, but I decided against it, wanting for 'Odin' to reconnect with the audience after this little hiatus... I also have never read a blatant propaganda newspaper, and found no relevant translated Pravda articles...so this might not be entirely realistic... That said, putting it all together was fun. Fun fact, Franklin Roosevelt actually held a broadcast in Canada's honour in mid-February 1942, the quote is real...

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Yay, this is back again!! Allow me to be the first to welcome our much-loved comrade 'Odin' back to AARland!

Although I can't help but notice...

Fun fact, Theodore Roosevelt actually held a broadcast in Canada's honour in mid-February 1942, the quote is real...

I believe you mean "Zombie Theodore Roosevelt", since the man originally died in 1919.

 

[roverS3]

Yay, this is back again!! Allow me to be the first to welcome our much-loved comrade 'Odin' back to AARland!

Glad to be back.

I believe you mean "Zombie Theodore Roosevelt", since the man originally died in 1919.

Franklin, I meant Franklin... though the ghost of Theodore was probably there to help Franklin through these tough times...

 

[Bullfilter]

Let me second the ‘welcome back’ motion: hurray! I have missed Odin et al and am very glad they’re back. Always nice to see a mocked-up propaganda news sheet - excellent way to kick things off again.

 

[Eurasia]

Welcome back! Hmmm...has anybody ever done a AAR with nothing but newspapers?

 

[roverS3]

Thanks for your warm 'welcome back's.

Always nice to see a mocked-up propaganda news sheet - excellent way to kick things off again.

I'm glad you like it, it took some doing... Looking at various covers of Pravda during the war, and at a picture of an English version from the 80s, I tried to respect the 1942 layout as much as possible.

Hmmm...has anybody ever done a AAR with nothing but newspapers?

I'm not sure...could be interesting, you could have different newspapers from different countries writing about the war from their perspective and following their propaganda and/or censorship habits. If done well, it's be a bit of a puzzle for the reader to figure out exactly what happened, though you could be consistent in the words you use to gloss over or lessen failures (something PRAVDA was notorious for doing).
Or you could just have one paper where the readAAR gets to read an obviously censored report of the war as a citizen would... If the paper is from the losing side you could have a sudden reversal where the paper is suddenly published under the victor's purview once it's location is taken.

I already have too many ideas for AARs... and this one isn't even close to wrapping up, but if anyone makes one such AAR, I'd gladly read it.

 

[roverS3]

The 18th of February 1942, Vologda, -10,6°C, 10am Moscow Time,

Report on the state of the Soviet Union for the ten day period between the 9th and the 18th of February 1942,

by 'Odin'

Army:

Two new Artillery Regiments (108. AP & 117. AP) have been deployed to 235. SD and 52. SD on the Western front.
Army numbers (Brigades/Personnel) Reserves included (these numbers don't include regiments being upgraded):

Front line troops: 675 / 2.025.000
Support troops: 322 / 322.000

Total fighting troops: 997 / 2.347.000​

Headquarters: 63 / 63.000
Total Army Personnel: 1.060 / 2.410.000
Officers: 99.530 + / 105.260 needed / 94,556 %
Active Leaders: 274 / 222 more available
Two more Artillery Regiments have started training while they await the delivery of their 152mm and 122mm guns.​

​

Air Force:

133. IAD, a brand new Division of La-7 multi-role fighters has been deployed to now Air Lt. General Chuvakov's I. TrAK. This should give his transports some protection in case they are intercepted.
Aeroplane Numbers (Wings/Planes):

Interceptors: 27 / 3.348
Multi-Role Fighters: 8 / 992
Close Air Support: 10 / 1.240
Carrier Air Groups: 7 / 434

Single Engined: 51 / 6.014​

Tactical Bomber: 4 / 400
Strategic Bombers: 1 / 100

Total Bombers: 15 / 1.740​

Transport Planes: 3 / 372

Total VVS: 53 / 6.452
Total Navy: 7 / 434
Total Aeroplanes: 60 / 6.886​

Active Leaders: 20 / 30 Reserve
La-7 production continues at the same level, the next 124 aeroplanes will probably be sent East to offer some long range fighter cover to the thinly spread line facing Manchukuo.​

​

Navy:

No changes to the Navy for the last 10 days.​

Politics / International:

Battle Of Britain

All seems quiet here, as the Germans lick their wounds, the British isles get a breather.​

North Africa Front:

United Kingdom (Surrender Progress / NU): 1,9 / 87,6
Italy (Surrender Progress / NU): 5,90 / 79,4

More Italian convoys were sunk in the Mediterranean in the continued joint Franco-British effort to cut Lybia off from all supply.
Despite this, some supply must have gotten through to the front line as Italian L Arm made a return, taking Derna, and pushing the two British Infantry Divisions to Ra's at Tin, halfway between Bengasi and Tobruch, that forms an infrastructure bottleneck, essentially reducing the front to a single province. The British have taken advantage of that, and both Infantry Divisions, still in rather good shape, have been digging in while the Italian mobile units catch their breath. Moreover, the recently arrived Indian Division is now only 70km from the front.
The RAF is back in the Mediterranean, with very little resistance from the Regia Aeronautica. During the fighting over Derna, Italian units were hit twice by Tactical bombers based out of Tobruch. More interestingly, the Italians have been hit at home by Tactical and Strategic bombers based out of Malta. Roma was bombed 5 times, and Reggio di Calabria 3 times, all without interference by the Regia Aeronautica. Only when the Halifaxed went for Firenze, were they intercepted. It's hard to tell the (likely significant) damage done by these attacks, but they do illustrate the growing dominance of the RAF in the Med. One can only speculate what will happen once all those US-built planes are taken into service.​

Cyprus:

Italian infantry landed unopposed in Lefkosia. The Royal Navy being mostly occupied with the fight against the IJN, the Regia Marina clearly took advantage of the situation, sneaking a Division onto the island of Cyprus, which the British neglected to Garrison. The invaders are now on their way to Lemesos and it's sizeable Air Base. This could be a problem, but only if Italy can spare the Aeroplanes and/or naval vessels to take advantage of the newly gained bases. The UK doesn't seem not to have reacted to this yet.​

South East Asia Front

United States of America (Surrender Progress / NU): 8,5 / 85,8
United Kingdom (Surrender Progress / NU): 1,9 / 77,6
Philippines (Surrender Progress / NU): 59,3 / 75,0
Japan (Surrender Progress / NU): 0,00 / 70,3

There have been no changes on Luzon, as Japanese Infantry crossed onto Samar. (see below) Still no news of what the recently arrived IJA Infantry is up to.

The Marines on Mindanao have now reached Surigao, the northernmost tip of the island. Our guess is that they are crossing the strait towards Tacloban. From the North, an unidentified IJA unit is taking over the island of Samar, possibly trying to beat the IJN to Tacloban. There doesn't seem to be any resistance against the Japanese invasion as all Philippino and American troops are sitting in Manila and Cagayan, on Luzon. Philippino morale remains so strong enough in these two places that the Japanese will probably have to capture one or both of them to push the Philippino government to surrender.
There have been no new naval battles in SE Asia, though the Convoy war rages, with 8, mostly American, convoys lost to the IJN, and 6 IJN convoys sent to the bottom near the Philippines, probably by French submarines.​

Pacific Front

American submarines seem to have sunk a couple of Japanese convoys around Midway Island, probably supplies for the Japanese occupying force.
​

Industry:

Working Industrial Capacity / available capacity: 240 / 324
IC Usage: ( Allocated IC / Need )

Upgrades: 13,30 / 19,44
Reinforcement: 1,00 / 1,04
Supplies: 30,00 / 48,75
Production: 250,54 / 279,01 (the Licensed MP remains mostly unfunded, as well as two Mountain Rifle Divisions and 10. TTGvD)
Consumer Goods: 29,16 / 29,16​

Stockpiles:

Energy: Maximum tonnes +
Metal: Maximum tonnes +
Rares: 45.846 tonnes +
Crude: Maximum barrels +
Supplies: 38.150 tonnes +
Fuel: Maximum barrels +
Money: 1.721 -
​

Intelligence:

Spy numbers, spies in (active / added / lost / caught by us)

France (Supporting our Party / Counterespionage): 5 / 0 / 0 / 0

{ Germany (/): 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 }
{ Japan (/): 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 }​

UK (/) : 6 / 5 / 9 / 5
Other: 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Total: 11 / 0 / 9 / 5
Reserves: 4
Spy training leadership expenditure: 0,64 (a new spy every 10 days)
Disaster has struck our UK espionnage operation. As Scotland Yard, assisted by a plethora of commonwealth spies, was closing in, our spies struck back, at the heart of Scotland Yard, killing 5 Scotland Yard operatives. However, they were soon overwhelmed by commonwealth agents from South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Oman, Nepal, and Bhutan. Reserves have been infiltrated, they are now keeping a low profile, trying to do a little industrial espionage.​

​

Research:

Our military theorists were happy to try out new and improved Blitzkrieg (Level 3) during the military exercise in the Lwow area.
Observing the complex supply operations, some of our Logistics Wizards came up with some ideas that could lead to another improvement in Supply Organisation (Level 4), of course, they were given a blank cheque to work out the details.
No changes in LS distribution
​

Statistics:

National Unity: 83,241 =
Neutrality: 0,00 =
Dissent: 0,00 =
Manpower:

Available: 2.189.000
Men To reinforce(need): 590
Men To mobilise(need): See above
Monthly gain: 48.200 Men (1 fully mobilised Infx3, AT Division every 7 days)​

No changes in Party Popularity for the last 10 days.
No changes in Party Organisation for the last 10 days.
​

This Information is accurate on the morning of the 18th of February 1942, I hope it serves you well in fine-tuning your possible suggestions.

'Odin'​

 

[Bullfilter]

Everyone else seems to be at war - will the German hammer fall soon, we wonder? Or will Stalin be receiving advice to conduct a preemptive attack if much more time drags by (depending on the status of the NAP, of course)?

Also looking forward to seeing what 11 is up to.

 

[Finshades]

Well now, this is quite the return! I, too, would like to extend a heartfelt "welcome back" to Odin.

Grand war games and UK seem to be the main points here. The wargames should provide a few other ideas for the doctrinists to work out, so hopefully there are a lot of blank cheques lying about. Brits abandoning the Med on the navy side might come back to bite them, if the Italians can utilize their landing troops to the maximum effect. Their counter-intelligence seems to rely heavily on their Commonwealth allies - could this indicate their leadership capacity is mostly occupied with scientific and diplomatic endeavors, leaving the intelligence branches with bare scraps?

 

[El Pip]

I'm not sure...could be interesting, you could have different newspapers from different countries writing about the war from their perspective and following their propaganda and/or censorship habits. If done well, it's be a bit of a puzzle for the reader to figure out exactly what happened, though you could be consistent in the words you use to gloss over or lessen failures (something PRAVDA was notorious for doing).
Or you could just have one paper where the readAAR gets to read an obviously censored report of the war as a citizen would... If the paper is from the losing side you could have a sudden reversal where the paper is suddenly published under the victor's purview once it's location is taken.

I already have too many ideas for AARs... and this one isn't even close to wrapping up, but if anyone makes one such AAR, I'd gladly read it.

I have a few notes for such an AAR, it was going to be Victoria (original version, tells you how old the idea was) and I was going to bash it out after I'd finished Butterfly Effect. That plan did not go well. However if someone does do such a thing be sure and let me know, I too would like to read it.

In actually related news I am going to make my attempt to catch up on this one, I've been tagged in enough times I feel I really should. That said - 340 Threadmarks. I won't lie that looks intimidating and I fear this could take a while.

 

[Eurasia]

OOC Question about game play. When the Germans invaded the USSR Stalin was so unhinged that he was unresponsive for two weeks. He just did not believe the Germans had hit the USSR before he could hit the Germans. Do you plan to role play the same - in other words letting the AIs run the military and/or government for two weeks when the Axis invade the USSR?

 

[roverS3]

Everyone else seems to be at war - will the German hammer fall soon, we wonder? Or will Stalin be receiving advice to conduct a preemptive attack if much more time drags by (depending on the status of the NAP, of course)?

The non-agression pact runs out entirely on the 6th of May 1943. That said, there are enough small breaches by Germany for us to be justified in breaking it... Harbouring the fugitive Finnish government, influencing Turkey, etc. Oh and annexing Memel (in my book that's part of the Baltics and our influence sphere...). I think it all depends where the war is going. If an allied landing occurs anywhere in Europe, that would probably be the time to go for it, and if that doesn't occur soon, we might do pull the trigger anyway... The IJA is still parked mostly on our Manchurian border, so ideally we'd like to see the Japs pull some of their troops to go fight the Allies before we strike. If we throw the first punch, we'll automatically be at war with the entire axis, and under considerable strain in the East, not to mention what could happen if the threat increase puts Turkey or Romania into the Axis... that might be a bit of a problem...

OOC Question about game play. When the Germans invaded the USSR Stalin was so unhinged that he was unresponsive for two weeks. He just did not believe the Germans had hit the USSR before he could hit the Germans. Do you plan to role play the same - in other words letting the AIs run the military and/or government for two weeks when the Axis invade the USSR?

I plan to continue running the government all the way, but, as you know, the military is already AI-run at the Army and/or Army Group level, I could not touch their objectives for two weeks... though my experience with Finland tells me the AI is perfectly capable of wasting time and shooting itself in the foot once war breaks out. It should be noted that, thanks to the Secret Committee TTL Stalin is a little more wary of Germany than OTL.

Grand war games and UK seem to be the main points here. The wargames should provide a few other ideas for the doctrinists to work out, so hopefully there are a lot of blank cheques lying about. Brits abandoning the Med on the navy side might come back to bite them, if the Italians can utilize their landing troops to the maximum effect. Their counter-intelligence seems to rely heavily on their Commonwealth allies - could this indicate their leadership capacity is mostly occupied with scientific and diplomatic endeavors, leaving the intelligence branches with bare scraps?

Yes, the war games will surely help our theorists.

The UK is a tough one, they're basically running the war for the Allies. In the med, in the Far East, and in the north Atlantic. The US is faffing about in the pacific with a couple of submarines. That said, the UK should soon become really OP thanks to that massive lend-lease they are getting from the US, essentially doubling their IC. In the short term, the RN is thinly spread, fighting the IJN, the KM, and the RM on it's own. Luckily, before the Japs entered the war, the RN managed to sink most of the RM, including most of their transports (but not all of them, as it turns out.).

As for UK counter-espionage, they seem to be outsourcing it, thereby creating a much larger network of spy-hunters. If the OSS starts weighing in as well, our mission in the UK is really in trouble.

I have a few notes for such an AAR, it was going to be Victoria (original version, tells you how old the idea was) and I was going to bash it out after I'd finished Butterfly Effect. That plan did not go well. However if someone does do such a thing be sure and let me know, I too would like to read it.

Interesting. Who knows, maybe, one day, you'll finish the Butterfly effect...

Also looking forward to seeing what 11 is up to.

We're all waiting to see if and how she gets out of Poland...

In actually related news I am going to make my attempt to catch up on this one, I've been tagged in enough times I feel I really should. That said - 340 Threadmarks. I won't lie that looks intimidating and I fear this could take a while.

It should be noted that my threadmarked updates vary quite a bit in length, most of them are not the size of one of your TBE updates... Speaking of catching up, I've been off the forum for 4 months... It's going to take some time for me to get back up to date on my favourite AARs... (probably not for TBE though...)

Well now, this is quite the return! I, too, would like to extend a heartfelt "welcome back" to Odin.

It's a true pleasure to return to such a warm welcome, from all of you.

 

[racebear75]

Hurrah! Odin is back. I hope there will be more to read soon.