A tale of two Kaisers : a gameplay Prussia AAR (AHD 2.31)

[diegoami]

Yesterday I wrote that it should make sense building more wine and regular clothes factories, since Germany is not producing enough to satisfy internal demands and is even exporting those goods.

Turns out I was wrong. There were two mistakes in my thinking process.

First, what the game calls "Exported Goods" are actually "Goods which are available for export". Which does not mean they are necessarily going to get exchanged. If Global Demand exceeds Global Supply, they are sold, otherwise they are going to disappear without profit. Therefore, the glass, fabric, clothes Germany is exporting end up wasted, since Global Supply for those goods exceeds Global Demand by far. But the automobiles which get exported, for instance, do get sold, since global demand exceeds supply.

Second, demand is not the same as the goods which are actually bought. Even if Germany's pops (mostly in China) would like to buy more wine and regular clothes, they might not have the money to do that. The ones who do have money will get the goods from the "Available" pool, which contains both the goods produced by the country and the spherelings, but NOT the goods which can be imported, as I explain in the following post. The quantity actually bought will be shown under the "Total Used" label. The difference "Total produced ( by us and spherelings)"-"Total used by us ( and spherelings?)" gets exported - or wasted. At least, this is how I understood it.

(Numbers are different since I took these screenshots in October 1903)

But it actually doesn't have to be that complicated. Actually, you can find out what goods should be profitable to produce in greater quantity just by looking at the trade screen. Green = good, black = average, red = bad. Looking at the trade screen you can see what goods are profitable (not counting RGOs).

Good : Eletronic Parts, Automobile, Aeroplanes, Fuel,
Neutral : Machine Parts, Telephones, Liquors, Luxury Clothes, Luxury Furniture, Ammo, Artillery, Canned Foods, Barrels
Bad : Everything else.

A look at the factory list confirms that in part - you have to weigh profit by numer of employees though. And regrettably the numbers could be different from day to day. But this list is even more useful to decide what kind of factory you should build (or close or subsidize - but that is another matter).

Most Profitable.

Less Profitable

It is obviously not that clear-cut, since steel, furniture and glass (sometimes) seem to be profitable too, and barrels might not.

I was not convinced, and I created another spreadsheet, to find out whether there is a relation between Profitability (Total Income/ Total Employees) and Percentage of Supply covered (Global Demand/ Global Supply*100). After all, some factories might be profitable and other not, even if producing the same good, so I tried to get average values.

There is some relation, barring errors, but it is still not clear-cut.

(There are some inconsistences with the previous images since I took the result over a couple of days, and the income ripples.)

So what to make of it ? Not sure....
Maybe I am making it more complicated than it is.

 

[morningSIDEr]

Good stuff. The place in the sun casus belli proved useful, grabbing those colonies from the Ottomans and Spain most welcome (losing the Ottomans from your sphere rather irksome though, to put it mildly). Grabbing more of China yet more welcome still of course. Although the ominous problem with communist rebels, which your brief dalliance with a socialist government sadly did not address, does make the acquisition of this land rather risky. At least said dalliance helped your economy quite considerably (I doff my hat regarding the research you have completed with regards to your economy, the spreadsheets most impressive).

 

[diegoami]

Thank you for your encouragement and your feedback morningSIDEr, but I am not done with the economy yet !

First I want to dispel a myth - or a fallacy. At least, that was something I used to believe. "Available for your country", as far as I could tell, is the SUM of your production and the production of your spherelings. It is NOT what your POPs and factories can actually buy. They can buy more stuff in the Global Market - if they find it. You are supposed to have access only to the half of your sphereling's market, but as far as I can tell, it does not reflect on the "Available for your country" statistics.
Some images and spreadsheets to prove my point.

For instance, in October 1903, only 77.49 tropical wood is "Available for your country", but the producers used 95,294. How come ? They actually bought it in the global market, obviously paying through the nose, since for that good global demand exceeds global supply.

And some research proved that 77,49 is roughly the total amount of tropical wood produced inside of Germany's sphere. Regrettably it is impossible getting 100% correct numbers, as you have to enter the game as a sphereling and let some days pass to get production statistics. But I did that, and filled these spreadsheets for selected RGOs which Germany has to import.
For all of the selected RGOs, Availability ("Available for our country") is very close to Total Production of your sphere, no matter global demand and global supply.

I tried that as France, starting as 1836. France has just one sphereling, the Papal State, so it should be easy to understand economy somewhat better.
This image confirms that you can actually buy stuff even if it is not "available". There is no dye in France's internal market, but the artisans find some in the global market. As a sidenote, what they consume is not taken into account - the game tells that producers need "0.00". In fact artisans' needs are not taken into account there - only industries' needs, as I also found out.

The Papal State produces grain, fruit, timber and wool. What France and the Pope produce, together, is roughly the same as the "Available for your country" statistics. It cannot be related to what can be bought on the global market, since for all these goods Supply exceeds Demand.

So, to sum it up, this is what I found out :

Available for our country : Your Production + Production of your spherelings. Which does NOT include what you can also buy on the global market.

 

[Avindian]

This has turned into some pretty insightful stuff, and now it makes more sense. PDS should change the tooltip!

 

[morningSIDEr]

Very interesting. My command of the economy, as with my command of near everything in V2, is pretty poor, thus this is proving a very useful read.

 

[diegoami]

@Avindian : Thank you ! Yes, the tooltip is misleading :wacko:

@MorningSIDEr : Thank you. I wonder what you would accomplish if your command of the game was good then

 

[diegoami]

1903-1904 : The Second Great War (1)

This is Great Britain - also known as Perfidious Albion. Number one in everything. Well, almost everything. In October 1903, Britain had just 219 ships compared to Germany's 533. And for some unknown reason, she wasn't allied any longer with Russia - just with Austria and a bunch of minors.

Austria wasn't an enemy Germany was afraid of - and it was about time to take on Britain. Everything was in place. There was also a casus belli, Helgoland, an island on which Germany had a core.

The war had been planned and troops were already at the border with Austria. But both Britain and Austria were unprepared when Germany declared war on the 13th of October 1903. Italy and Usa also declared war on Great Britain and Austria. The Second World War had begun.

Immediately, Germany and Italy mobilized and attacked Austria from two fronts.

Austria's troops were no match for German and Italian troops. Great Britain could not help their ally in any way. Surrounding manoeuvers were initiated.

... and again, by December 1903.

Britain, in fact, was also being attacked - by the USA. Their troops in North America were outnumbered.

Britain could not defend its colonies in South America as well.

By January 1904, most of the Austrian troops had surrendered. German troops had taken care of that and surrounded them when possible. The biggest stack had surrendered in Maribor.

All this time the British isles were being blockaded.

There was some action in Egypt and Persia as well. In Egypt we were on the defensive...

While in Persia the real fighting hadn't begun yet. Both Persia and Egypt were our allies, as were most of the South American countries.

By August 1904, it was clear that Britain would not be able to prevent Canada's occupation.

By December 1904, Austria had been fully occupied and was begging for peace.

A peace with Austria would have suited Germany as well, and it would have allowed to take on Great Britain for real. Most of the British territory had been spared the fight. The Stettin Republic had to fall back in Egypt.

If we had more troops at our disposal we could invade India through Persia and the Punjab. The Italians had already sent troops there.

Germany had tried to invade the British Burma, but found itself outnumbered and had to retreat back by ship, not without losses.

There were other minor fronts, in Africa and Oceania. German Somaliland had been invaded by British allies, while some of the British possession in Asia and America had been invaded by Germany and allies.

British Africa, the British Isles and Australia had been untouched so far. There were also several naval battles, and as expected Germany ruled the waves most of the time.

On the 28th of December 1904, Austria capitulated. It is Italy who got the most out of the treaty - three provinces. While Germany got Tirol and Turkey as a sphereling. The state of Croatia was also created. Now there was a land connection from Germany to Persia - which would be fully exploited to reinforce the fronts in Egypt and Persia.

 

[unmerged(271387)]

Ooh,i want to see austria fall now to communists or fascists

 

[Nikolai]

Austria needs to be dismantled, the German parts incorporated and the made into sphered puppets!

 

[morningSIDEr]

Excellent stuff, you seem to have this war well in hand. With Austria already defeated you should hopefully be able to exact a good peace deal from Britain. Especially pleasing recapturing Turkey to your sphere, hopefully they don't escape again!

 

[diegoami]

@videonfan, Nikolai : We'll see what we can do about that
morningSIDEr : Thank you for the feedback, I hope that I can at least get the spot #1

 

[diegoami]

1905-1908 : Second Great War (2)

There was actually a communist uprising in Austria-Hungary, but it wasn't successful.
After defeating Austria, Germany demobilized and kept fighting only using its professional army, which was pretty big, thanks to encouraging soldiers in China.
By June 1905 the front in Egypt had stabilized, while reenforcement were slowly gathering in Persia.

The most interesting news was Greece's surrender. We enforced Brazil's goal, who received Peloponnesus. Brazil was occupying Malta, by the way.

Our South American army was busy occupying British possession in America.

Later in the year, we attempted an amphibious invasion of British China, but were pushed back. Here too we retreated by ship suffering big losses.

By November 1905, thanks to the sacrifice of our allies Italy and Persia who kept throwing troops at them, we managed to kick the British out of Western Punjab's heights. Turkey had joined the war at our side.

The British have so many provinces - it is hard to keep track of them. We were occupying also their Indian Ocean islands. Ruling the waves makes war much easier.

And the tide was turning also in Northern Africa.

All this time, the British isles were blockaded - but untouched. As were British Southern Africa and British Australia.

By August 1806 Britain and allies had given up Punjab. Germany cannily kept occupying the provinces the British left unguarded, and slowly but surely got hold of all the heights. The road to india was open.

Meanwhile, the USA, after fully occupying Canada, opened the Ghanan front.

By January 1907, the battle of India was almost won, as the biggest British stack was surrounded and about to be beaten.

So was the battle for Africa, where by this time the desert was a worse enemy than the British.

By July 1907, Germany's foothold in India was solid and soon all of the subcontinent would be occupied by the Stettin Republic.

And in Africa, soon the German troops would reach the Atlantic.

So far, an invasion of British Africa hadn't been attempted. Looking at this map and seeing how easily it was to beat the British made the German Generals sad. They wished the previous generation hadn't been so inept at colonizing, as they knew that, no matter how soundly they beat the British, they would never manage to fully swallow their Empire without incurring unacceptable infamy penalties.

But the good news was that German Somalia had been liberated.

By January 1908, Germany had enforced Persia's wargoal and the Karachi region, formerly Sikh, was annexed by Persia.

During these times of war, the German government changed often. There had been a Liberal Government and now there was a Socialist Government. But the Communist movement kept growing no matter what - there were now 1639 rebel brigades ready to join a general raising, and the probability of a revolt was 100%. The biggest enemy was not outside - it was inside.

To make matters worse, a lot of the soldier pops, mostly the Chinese, were communists as well, as for some reasons those soldiers weren't getting any money and were pissed off. It almost seemed that the German Republic was living on borrowed time.

The national focuses were used to increase support for the Socialist Party. More Socialists in the Upper House would have allowed more social reforms, that in the current political situation were still impossible.

 

[unmerged(271387)]

Could it be a premature DDR?

 

[Avindian]

That Communist rebellion, when it comes? I do not envy you one bit.

 

[Repaxan]

FYI - the way the pop ideology works, as far as the Commies are concerned, having the Socialists rule is exactly the same as having the Reactionaries rule, so that alone won't placate them any.

 

[vasziljevics]

that's the reason one shouldn't rely too much on armies recruited from colonial ppl as they get pissed off so easily

 

[morningSIDEr]

Rather worrying to put it mildly. Interesting to see what happens with the rebels.

 

[diegoami]

Hi everybody, thank you for your feedback. Update soon...

Could it be a premature DDR?

Yeah, that's what I fear...

That Communist rebellion, when it comes? I do not envy you one bit.

I am afraid it will come soon ... But it is just a game

FYI - the way the pop ideology works, as far as the Commies are concerned, having the Socialists rule is exactly the same as having the Reactionaries rule, so that alone won't placate them any.

Thank you, that's very interesting information, I expected the Communists the join the Socialists or somewhat get less militant, but obviously I don't understand politics well enough :/

that's the reason one shouldn't rely too much on armies recruited from colonial ppl as they get pissed off so easily

You live and learn, I guess I was used to EU3 where it doesn't make a difference where you recruit them...

Rather worrying to put it mildly. Interesting to see what happens with the rebels.

Yeah.. I will learn something either way.

 

[diegoami]

1908-1909 : Second Great War(3) and Communist Uprising

So where were we ? It's the year 1908, and Germany and allies are still fighting against Britain and allies. The UK is being soundly beaten, but there is a looming threat of a communist revolution. Now, a communist revolution is great if it has been planned - but if I had planned it I would have not invested that much in spheres of influence and capitalists, which I think I would lose if a Proletarians Dictatorship was established.

The war was still going well - in March 1908, there was no resistance left in India...

and in central Africa...

while we had moved on to the next stage in this war - Ireland had been invaded.

Our secret service was reporting that there were now 1804 communist brigades ready to revolt.

By August 1908, the occupation of Ireland was in progress, while we were completing also the occupation of India and Central Africa.

But the big news in that month was that the Communists at last revolted. While in China the rebels at first overwhelmed the German troops ...

the uprising in mainland Germany wasn't anywhere as threathening. Which meant that the Communist uprising was doomed from the very beginning.

For some reason, fewer brigades than expected had joined the revolters. Only a paltry 163.

In fact, by October 1908, order had been restored in all of the republic. The Communists had lost - this time.

But it was imperative to implement some social reforms, otherwise there would be other revolts. The national focuses were used to increase loyalty towards Socialists in the most populous German Länder.

The war against the UK lasted until June 1909. While no more theatres were opened and an invasion of Britain was ruled out, fully occupying India, Central Africa and Ireland took some time and before sueing for peace the High German Command retreated the troops from the occupied territories, so that they would not suffer from attrition after signing the peace treaty.

These were the wargoals we could enforce in June 1909. Warscore was at 67, but the Republic didn't wish to prolong a war that had already cost 15M pounds. In the end, the UK had to cede British Hannover, which was the Casus Belli, and release the puppets Hyderabad, Jaipur, Indore, Magpur, Mewar, Bastar, Bikaner and Ionian Island. The USA acquired British Columbia and Sweden acquired North West England.

The UK hadn't been decisively weakened, but we had made them release their puppets, which gave us a lot of prestige and kind of made of us the good guys. While Britain had still the highest military and industrial score, because of our prestige we were the uncontested Number One.

Apart from losing the puppets, the UK did lose two provinces : North East England, who became Scandinavian, and Heligoland.

The USA profited from this war as well, acquiring British Columbia.

Therefore, in October 1909, this was the map of Europe.

...and a map of the world.

Spoiler

Now to follow up on my thread about factories, who are the richest pops in 1909 Germany?

Spoiler

It seems that at last the capitalists are becoming richer than the aristocrats.

And then I will compare the most profitable factories and RGOs. Because, you know, the wealth of nations lies in their productive power.

Spoiler

Spoiler

What would Adam Smith make of this ? Not sure...

 

[Avindian]

Absolutely awesome stuff. I love seeing the UK taken down a peg.