Chapter CXIV: The Consequences of Control.
While there is a case to be made that Anthony Eden was a victim of unforeseen circumstances, or at least unforeseeable consequences, in one aspect he was very much the architect of his own problems. The choice of the malleable Sir Thomas Inskip as Foreign Secretary was entirely his own and would come back to bite him during the Cortes Affair. News of the incident and the dramatic fate of the
Cortes quickly made its way from Commodore Agar to the Admiralty, arriving in London around the same time as the first despatch from Admiral Ubieta’s successor reached Valencia. In both cities there was something of a scramble to react before the situation deteriorated, however in neither city would there be a great deal of unity of purpose.
In Valencia two parallel, but opposing, processes were quickly initiated by the Republican government. The Foreign Ministry was given the task of keeping Britain out of the war, to this end the British ambassador was summoned for emergency talks and the head of the French ‘advisory’ delegation was briefed and aid from Paris sought in calming the situation. At the same time the Ministry for Public Instruction, notionally responsible for education, continued its Soviet inspired drift into propaganda. Their task began with the twin assumptions that the event could not be hidden and that the truth was too damaging (and embarrassing) to admit to, thus a more palatable version was necessary for both domestic and international consumption. The resulting ‘official’ version, in which the dastardly British had fired, without warning, on an innocent Spanish patrol that had been righteously defending the Republic’s territorial waters, went down well domestically but was less well received overseas. If nothing else there was the minor issue of why an outnumbered British convoy would attack a superior fleet, something the ministry never managed to produce a convincing explanation for.
Eric Arthur Blair, more commonly known as George Orwell, with his fellow anarchist militiamen serving on the Northern Front. After he completed writing ‘Reflections from Birkenhead Docks’ (originally planned as an ‘investigation of the economically depressed North’, the vast sums spent in the region due to the Abyssinian War had prompted him to reach some contradictory conclusions) Orwell had become interested in the Spanish Civil War. Disappointed by the failure of the Independent Labour Party contingents to ever actually leave, Orwell eventually travelled to Spain himself and joined one of the multi-national anarchist columns. After fighting on the Northern Front during the battles around Barcelona, Orwell was eventually forced to leave Spain, the Republican government and their Soviet propaganda men stirring up a decidedly vicious anti-British mood in the aftermath of the Cortes Incident. His experiences, and the transformation of his dislike of Soviet communism into implacable hatred, would be documented in the book The Road to Catalonia.
The reaction in London was equally unfocused, the initial reaction very much setting the tone for what followed. After the Sea Lords informed their political masters, the Admiralty became embroiled in an argument on procedure and privilege with the Foreign Office, essentially revolving around who announced the news to Parliament. The compromise agreement saw the ‘official’ announcement to the House of Commons made by the Foreign Secretary Thomas Inskip, while in compensation the Admiralty was left free to brief the press in the lobby. This was an unfortunate decision as the contrast between the vague and cautious statement in the House by Inskip and the more bellicose briefing by the Admiralty only served to highlight the divisions with the government. At the heart of the problem was the government’s policy on Spain, namely that it didn’t actually have one. What they had instead was a desired outcome (a Monarchist victory) and a key objective (not getting involved in the war) but no real idea of how they were to be achieved, relying instead on reacting to issues as they arose. This was a particular problem for Inskip who had no ‘official position’ on what to do next or how to react and so, lacking the inclination (or ability) to make such a decision, he felt forced to hedge and make a carefully worded statement that left all options open. This open position was then very effectively undermined by the Admiralty briefing, the assembled press being left in little doubt that with the challenge from the Republican Navy successfully seen off the convoys would continue as before.
What this febrile atmosphere needed was a show of unity and calm and decisive leadership. What it got was opportunism and division, collective responsibility vanishing as the cabinet, and many leading backbench MPs, took Inskip's statement as in invitation to promote their own views on what the British reaction should be. The dividing line was the same as it has always been; on one side the hawks, who pushed for great involvement in Spain, on the other the doves who wanted out of the whole affair. That said it is interesting to note that neither side actually made much reference to the conflict in Spain itself, their arguments almost exclusively being about how the Spanish ‘policy’ (such as it was) impacted on British interests elsewhere. The leaders of the dove side were the two ‘Presidents’; Rab Butler, the President of the Board of Education and the absent Lord Halifax’s man in London, and Earl Stanhope, the President of the Board of Trade. As the stakes rose after the Cortes Affair the Francophile wing of the party, led by the charismatic Duff Cooper, came off the fence in favour of the doves, concerned at the damage the war was doing to their hopes of reviving the Entente Cordial. This group’s position was that while the Royal Navy had done a sterling job protecting the rights and freedoms of British merchants, perhaps Britain would do better exercise those rights elsewhere and 'choose' to stop sending further convoys. To oppose this moderate message the leading Hawks, the Chancellor Leo Amery and the Secretary of State for Air Winston Churchill, also sought to widen their base in the party. They emphasised the jobs and trade that British involvement earned and played heavily on national pride, raising the spectre of the loss of prestige and the damage done to the nation's reputation if Britain were to back down. With this twin track approach they roped in half a dozen cabinet ministers, including the high flying Secretary of State for War, Oliver Stanley and the mercurial Lord Beaverbrook. For this group the only option was to stay the course, thanks to the Royal Navy's efforts the convoys would now be safe so they should continue to run as before.
The SS New York, one of the growing number of US flagged cargo ships making the journey from America to the Atlantic ports of France laden with exports for Spain. The Cortes Incident caused consternation in the US financial markets, during the initial confusion the value of Republican debts crashed on fears of Britain entering the war and the victorious Monarchist carrying out their promise to renege on Republican war debts. While the 'Spanish Credits' market recovered somewhat once those fears receded the consternation remained, spreading from financial markets to the political arena. To add to the still ongoing attacks from Senator Nye and the Munitions Commission President Landon had to contend with accusations that his policy of 'moral neutrality' was neither moral nor especially neutral, accusations that were harder to defend as the Soviet influence on the Republican government became more apparent.
While the divisions were clear how to resolve them was not, with compromise impractical on the key issue (either the convoys ran or they didn’t) a decision would have to be made one way or the other. Quite aside from the problem of the decision itself, Eden finding merit in both sides of the argument, there was the significant issue of how to enforce it. The previous years had shown Conservative MPs quite how easy it was to force an election to replace their leader, which made forcing the issue risky, while Eden’s poor public (and private) speaking skills all but ruled out charismatic and inspirational leadership carrying the day. In the face of these obstacles the issue was left to drift as Eden and Inskip ‘worked’ to make sure the incident did not escalate, taking up the offer of French mediation to skilfully drag out the talks with the Republican government. How long the talks would have lingered before the Republicans, or indeed the French, forced the issue is unclear, because in the end it was the Admiralty that brought the matter to a head. The First Lord of the Admiralty, Viscount Monsell, offhandedly mentioned in a cabinet meeting that, in the absence of any order to the contrary, the Admiralty had formed up and despatched the next convoy to Spain on schedule and it was currently halfway across the Bay of Biscay. No longer able to avoid the issue Eden would have to decide and face the consequences.
--
Notes:
A brief mention of Orwell and his two famous books of the time, complete with rename and rewrite to reflect the changing times. That said I imagine he still remains a democratic socialist, honest realist and firm anti-communist, however he might have different priorities around the edges.
The Communists did get control of propaganda for the Republicans in OTL and thanks to Soviet influences it was that unsubtle. Mind you in OTL foreign support was less important (or at least less available) so plausible propaganda was also less important, alas that’s more of a problem TTL.
Eden faces his first very serious crisis and stumbles somewhat. He was never that keen on intervention in Spain in OTL and he certainly had no problem with ‘reasonable’ compromises for peace so could go dove. Equally he’s a smart enough politician to know that cutting of the Spanish orders will not go down well with the sacked workers and that pulling out would mean a massive loss of face (plus an invitation to riot for the die-hard wing of the party). So he is probably somewhat conflicted on this one. As Tory MPs have been through four leaders in under two years so probably wouldn't be that bothered about notching up another scalp, the stakes are high for Eden on this one.
Up next Eden’s decision and the consequences thereof.
