The Great Game
It seems like the World simply cannot come to rest. The Franco-German war was already the third war that shook Europe in a time span of barely more than 50 years. From Austerlitz to Verdun, the entire continent has already been a battlefield. From the Congress in Vienna to the Treaty of London, nothing seems to be able to establish peace. And now, albeit the guns in the Saarland still smoking, war is on the horizon again… waiting to perform its bloody work.
Russia has been quiet for a long time. The country was weakened by several bankruptcies and a sudden change in administration. But an old saying goes: “when Russia awakens the world trembles”. And the giant’s slumber has now truly come to a close. In a matter of a few years Russia has built a navy that can rival that of France or Great Britain. In addition to that Russia sports an army of nearly a million men, a force that could wreak havoc on every nation that comes in its reach. The United Kingdom has been the leading power for many years now. But with Russia it found an equal opponent.
The core of the current crisis is South Africa. Many years ago Dutch settlers, the Boer, decided to establish their nations there. The government in Amsterdam soon saw their chance to use these brave pioneers to expand their own influence in Africa. London, however, had other plans for the region. They wanted nothing short of the entire area. So they announced their intentions to “punish” the Dutch. Yet neither Russia nor the NGF are ready to accept Britain’s view of crime and punishment. So, to counter British power, they formed the Confederation of Independent states and agreed to protect each other’s interests. This raised the alarms in London and the Empire immediately began to use all of its influence to discredit the Confederation. When Brazil joined the Confederation they responded by extending guarantees to every country bordering Brazil, in direct violation of an earlier Treaty. So clearly the British are willing to risk a confrontation. And it seems the Russians are too.
A quick comparison of British and Russian power
Currently it is still a “war of the nerves”. Both sides have left the other a chance for compromise. But both sides are also keen on playing the Great Game. Both sides are eager for chances to expand their power. Every action they take is like a move in a game of chess. And so, with their pawns neatly lined up facing each other, escalation is becoming inevitable. The question is, if worse comes to worse, who will emerge victorious? The answer is as simple as unsatisfying: it will depend.
It will depend on three things:
Control of the Sea:
Britain, as an island nation, can only survive if it controls the waters which surround it. Otherwise it is open to invasion. And once the Russians land, the Empire is lost. Further, without a navy, India and Africa will be without reinforcements. So if Russia can wrestle away control of the Sea from Britain, the British will likely have to accept a humiliating defeat. Yet with the British navy being roughly double in size compared to the Russian one, it remains likely that Britain will remain in control.
The Importance of Sea Power:
Britain relies on its navy to project its Power. Works like the “the influence of Sea Power upon History” seem to suggest that Britain’s approach is very effective. In the Brunei War Britain won simply because it could completely blockade its enemies. But will that be enough to beat Russia. Clearly sea power gives Britain two advantages: it can strike where it wants and it can blockade. Yet Russia is huge and has little coast. It is the heartland which, according to geopolitical theory, cannot be defeated or conquered by sea power. Further Russia will not necessarily have to fight at sea at all. They could easily manage to move troops through central Asia into India, striking at the bread basket of the Empire. Without India, British factories will be starved of their supplies. So Britain’s victory will very much depend on how much they can use their sea power to their advantage.
The Importance of Attrition:
In terms of technology and leadership Britain is way ahead of Russia. The Russian army is ill-equipped and commanded by men who deem a frontal attack a superior strategy. So in a war of manoeuvre Britain clearly will win. But in a war of attrition the situation is different. Quite frankly the British could probably ten Russians for every man they lose and still Russia could field a larger army. In Russia manpower is virtually infinite. Further Russia can always give up land to buy time, joyfully watching as their enemies freeze in the winter. The only limiting factor to Russia in a war of attrition is the will of its people to continue fighting. If the Tsar can keep morale up, then any attempt of the British to invade the Russian homelands will lead to his majesty’s army being bled to death.
The real irony of this all is that one gets the feeling that the end of one war, through some hideous hidden law, necessitates the swift beginning of another war. In the Napoleonic wars France was defeated by the UK. In the Brunei War France was fighting the UK again. Again France was defeated. This gave Prussia the chance to expand, drawing France and Germany into war. And now the defeated Germans and their Russian allies demand go against the UK. The circle is closed, but it is not just a shape. It is a ring of fire, designed to kill and trap millions of innocent people. So while the governments are set on war, all that the people desire is a simple exit. Yet is there still one… or is the fire already wild?