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Victoria 3 - Dev Diary #54 - Trade Revisions

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Hello and welcome to another Victoria 3 development diary. Today is going to be a slightly different diary, as instead of bringing up a system we haven’t previously covered we’ll be talking about a whole bunch of changes that have happened to Trade, which was previously talked about in Dev Diary #38.

As is fairly common knowledge, we are constantly iterating on our systems, and even when something has been written about in a dev diary that doesn’t mean we’re a hundred percent happy with it or aren’t looking to tweak it in some way. For Trade specifically, there were two main issues that were brought up repeatedly from internal testing and feedback, but which we hadn’t had figured out the solution for yet by the time the Trade dev diary was written.

These issues were that first, managing the precise level of your trade routes was far too micro-intensive, and second, that Tariffs didn’t function as an effective trade barrier. These weren’t the *only* issues mind, but they were the two big ones that we needed to design some sort of solution for. Well, design and implement a solution we did, so here I am to tell you all about it.

So then, what has changed about trade? Well first of all, let’s go over what hasn’t changed. Namely, that trade routes are still established by a nation, from their market to another market, and can be either an import route (which creates buy orders in the foreign market and sell orders in your own market) or an export route (which does the opposite). Trade Routes also still require Convoys to transport goods along sea routes, and still create Trade Centers whose employees manage and profit from those routes.

Trade Routes are created from the Trade Lens, where you will get both a map and list overview of the most suitable markets to trade with
DD54_1.png

As to what has changed, probably the single most important difference is that you no longer directly manage the level of your trade routes. Instead, all newly established trade routes start at level 1, and will grow (or shrink) on a weekly basis based on market conditions. So if you’re playing as Britain and looking to import Wood from Brazil, instead of setting the exact level of Wood imports that makes sense for your needs right away, you simply establish the route and it will grow towards those needs over time. It’s also worth noting in this context that we have removed the national limit on the number of trade routes you can have, and replaced it with a fixed bureaucracy cost per route (which does not increase with route level) instead, to encourage countries to have fewer, more impactful trade routes.

So what are the market conditions that affect whether trade routes grow, shrink, or stay unchanged? Well, the single most important factor is profitability. A trade route makes money by buying goods that are cheap in the exporting market and selling them at a higher price in the importing market, but it isn’t as simple as just looking at the current market price. Instead, each trade route has a purchase price and sale price which are calculated based on the difference between the pre-trade and post-trade price of the goods in the two markets.

To maintain naval trade routes, you will need convoys. If your supply network is under strain due to lack of convoy production or attacks on your shipping lanes, your trade routes will start shrinking over time.
DD54_2.png

Confused yet? To try and explain, I’ll use the Wood import route to Britain from Brazil as an example. To get the purchase price in the exporting (Brazilian) market, we first calculate what the price of Wood would be in that market if it had no trade routes exporting or importing wood, i.e. if it was set only from local supply and demand. Let’s make up a number and say that the pre-trade price of Wood in Brazil is 10 (quite a low price) and the post-trade price of Wood in Brazil is 20 (a very average price). To get the purchase price, we simply calculate the midpoint between these two prices, aka 15. This means that we assume that our trade route is paying, on average, £15 for each unit of Wood they are exporting. The same calculation is then done in the British market to get the sale price, which I’m just going to arbitrarily set at £25. From here on, the math should be simple enough - each unit of Wood imported to Britain from Brazil generates £10 in profits for the Trade Center.

There’s a lot of factors that go into whether or a trade route will grow or shrink, but fortunately you don’t have to know them all by heart, since the level prediction tooltip will break them down for you!
DD54_3.png

Well, it would be that simple if it weren’t for Tariffs. Tariffs are collected on both ends of the trade route, with the exporting market collecting Export tariffs and the importing market collecting Import tariffs. Under the new system, Tariffs can be a highly effective trade barrier because they are calculated against the base price of the goods rather than the market price. What this means is that if the Import tariff on Wood is 25%, that Import tariff is always going to be £5.

If you have a degree in economics or you’re just surprisingly good at following along with my overcomplicated explanations, you may already have picked up on the reason that setting against the base price makes Tariffs a more effective trade barrier. Namely, that it disproportionately affects high-volume, low-revenue-per-unit routes. For our example Wood route above, a tariff of £5 means a full 50% reduction in profits, and as the route grows and the difference between the purchase and sale price shrinks, tariffs will take away more and more of that profit until it’s simply more profitable for the Pops in the Trade Center to stop growing the trade route level, and indeed may end up reducing the level in order to make more money for themselves.

It’s worth noting that Trade Routes can never shrink below level 1, and so will always trade a small number of goods even if doing so at a loss, so that for instance you can always import a small quantity of weapons or ships needed to kickstart your military or merchant marine - assuming that you’re willing to subsidize the Trade Center if it doesn’t have other, more profitable routes to make up for the losses.

So then, is creating trade routes and letting them do their own thing the only way you interact with trade now? Well, no. Since we’ve taken away the need to adjust routes manually, this means that we can now put emphasis on other, more indirect ways to manipulate the flow of goods between markets. These include strengthening Trade Agreements (which now remove both bureaucracy cost and tariffs from all trade routes between the two countries) and adding the ability to place Embargoes on countries you want to keep out of your market.

Mexico decides that it has had enough of American meddling in their market - it’s Embargo time!
DD54_4.png

However, probably the single most important tool we’ve added for controlling trade is Market Good Policies. There are 3 such policies, which you can set separately for each individual good in your market:
  • Protect Domestic Supply: This market good policy removes import tariffs and increases export tariffs, encouraging countries to supply more of this good to your market and discourages them from exporting it away from you, which might be useful if you for instance want to keep the price of Clippers low so that you’ll pay less to maintain your ports.
  • Encourage Exports: As the name pretty much explicitly states, this market good policy removes export tariffs and increases import tariffs, which is highly useful if you for instance want to drive up the price of Furniture so that your Furniture Industries will see increased profits.
  • No Priority: This is the default market good policy, which sets both Import and Export Tariffs at the baseline determined by your Trade laws. To give you a couple examples of what this baseline could be, under Mercantilism you have overall lower export tariffs and higher import tariffs, while Free Trade removes all tariffs altogether.

Well, that’s about all there is to say about the changes to Trade. Overall, we’re quite happy with the changes we’ve made and how much better it feels to play with compared to the old 100% manual system. Join us again next week, where I will cover Achievements!
 
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Jorlem

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So what are the market conditions that affect whether trade routes grow, shrink, or stay unchanged? Well, the single most important factor is profitability. A trade route makes money by buying goods that are cheap in the exporting market and selling them at a higher price in the importing market, but it isn’t as simple as just looking at the current market price. Instead, each trade route has a purchase price and sale price which are calculated based on the difference between the pre-trade and post-trade price of the goods in the two markets.

Does distance play a part in the trade routes? That is, if I'm the USA, and I'm looking to import wood, and I see that Madagascar has slightly lower prices than, say, Brazil, would there be something that makes the more distant country not the winner?

Or from a different perspective, if I am Italy, and am trading with India or China, and the Suez Canal is built, do my trade routes become more profitable, because the distance they need to travel is reduced?
 

mursolini

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That’s a very good point. If you have a country A and country B, wood price in A is 10, in B is 30, and if you combine their markets you get a price of 20. if instead you establish a trade route, the new market price would be 20 in both markets, but since your trade route uses sale and purchase price which are midpoints of old and new prices, so 15 for A and 25 for B, it will generate 10 pounds per unit traded from thin air. As there are no costs for a trade route under a trade agreement, it seems to be vastly preferable to joining the market!
There is no profit out of thin air, in A, sellers benefit from higher price, buyers take a loss due to higher price, in B, it is reversed, and you get nice 10pounds for being a middle man.

It was : In A Sellers get X*priceA, buyers pay X*priceA, in B : sellers make Y*priceB, buyers pay Y*price B.

In case of trade for Z amount:
In A: byers by (X-Z)*newpriceA, sellers sell (X-Z)*newpriceA + Z*specialPriceA
In B: sellers make Y*newpriceB, buyers pay Y*newpriceB+Z*special price B.
Trade center gets Z*(specialpriceB-specialpriceA)

In case of merged markets, see example above.

With trade, your consumers will pay more and get less goods, while you trader will pocket that difference as profit.
The only question is, if it works like that. So if that side who operates (makes) the trade route will have to give ships for trading and pay maintenance and other costs. Otherwise it would be weird gameplay decision, as everyone would constantly look around whos importing from us and make the same trade rout again as an duplicate, so that our trade center can make some profit as well. It would be then a gameplay decision which is always good and hence a nobrainer to make.

Maybe it would be easier to allow only one trade route in one direction and just let that nation be responsible for transports which is importing ? Basically the guy who wants the goods, has to pay for transportation, either using his own ships/trains or pay extra if he has no trains/ships (only possible if the exporteur has free ships/trains).
It's not exactly profit out of thin air. It requires qualified manpower and convoys, manpower that isn't generating you any goods, which you might want to use differently, or not want to have for political structure reasons, and you might not be in position to build/buy convoys for reasons as well.
 
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Sasaori

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My friend played with the current version and found some problems. I hope it can be improved. I speak frankly and ask for understanding
First of all, the current ugly war system is the worst in the history of the paradox game. It can not make any pre war strategic deployment, nor can it make flexible tactical operations in wartime. The player can only look at it like an idiot
The proportion of war damage is also very strange. Under almost the same military science and technology environment, a large number of people must have great advantages
This makes the military powers with a small population in history have no advantages. For example, countries like Prussia and Japan used to be backward in science and technology in history, but they beat the strong with the weak. Such historical battles cannot be reflected in the current game. But the most ridiculous thing is that the weak and dying Manchu Dynasty was extremely strong in the game??? Are you too eager to get the favor of Chinese players? Please understand the history. Most of the Chinese people are Han people, but the Manchu Qing Dynasty tortured the Han people for 260 years, and many Han people still hate the Manchu Dynasty.
Like the game 20 years ago, the battle animation is even less worth mentioning
Then the algorithm of the market and the crowd is very, very strange. In a mainstream market in Europe, the price of high-end clothing has dropped to be cheaper than cheap clothing, but people's orders are still frantically snapping up low-end clothing with higher prices... The high-end furniture with huge discounts has been 30 pounds, but people's orders are still frantically snapping up simple furniture with 40 pounds
There is also a monarchy that exercises dictatorship. He wants to pass a law, but it has taken more than ten years, and so far he has not succeeded
You are right. It is dictatorship, not democracy... Does the production team have any misunderstanding about the word "dictatorship"?
Victoria 2 is my favorite paradox game, but I am very, very disappointed to see Victoria 3 now. I hope the above problems can be solved when the game is released.
Supporters of paradox
 
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mikhail321

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There is no profit out of thin air, in A, sellers benefit from higher price, buyers take a loss due to higher price, in B, it is reversed, and you get nice 10pounds for being a middle man.

It was : In A Sellers get X*priceA, buyers pay X*priceA, in B : sellers make Y*priceB, buyers pay Y*price B.

In case of trade for Z amount:
In A: byers by (X-Z)*newpriceA, sellers sell (X-Z)*newpriceA + Z*specialPriceA
In B: sellers make Y*newpriceB, buyers pay Y*newpriceB+Z*special price B.
Trade center gets Z*(specialpriceB-specialpriceA)

In case of merged markets, see example above.

With trade, your consumers will pay more and get less goods, while you trader will pocket that difference as profit.

It's not exactly profit out of thin air. It requires qualified manpower and convoys, manpower that isn't generating you any goods, which you might want to use differently, or not want to have for political structure reasons, and you might not be in position to build/buy convoys for reasons as well.
This is not how it is described to work. Let’s say A has a demand of 50 and supply 200, making the price 10, while B has demand of 200 and supply 50, making the price 30 (i don’t know exact pricing formula, so let’s stay with these assumptions) in a common market demand and supply would be equal, so 150 will go from A to B and the price is 20. If you establish a trade route, though, the trade center in this situation will be making 10 pounds of profit, as described in my previous post, so the trade route will continue to grow. Let’s assume it will grow until trade profit is 5. This would mean that they will send around 190 units, making price of wood in A 22.5, and in B 17.5. So the consumers of wood in B will get MORE wood and at a LOWER price than if they simply join markets. This means two things: 1 trade-oriented playstyle would have a significant edge over trying to be self-reliant (not accounting for political disruptions to trade) 2. Inviting someone to join your market is a really bad idea, destroying value for both of you. I’m fine with the first implications, as it may be justified as reflecting the greater variety, competition and specialization within one product group, that usually comes with more international trade. The second implication really bothers me, however.
 
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mofeng_1

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This sounds great. But it seems that the lowest tariff seems to be zero? Could we impose negative tariffs on a country to destroy an industry for a specific product?
 
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TalTal

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The current plan is to make it so that land trade is limited by infrastructure, and any volume not supported by the infrastructure will have to be shipped by sea.
Good afternoon Wizzington!
I, and I'm sure all Victoria 3 fans, would like to clarify exactly how overland trade routes will consume infrastructure.

1) Does this mean that there will be trade routes affecting individual states of your country when trading overland with a neighbor. For example, if I'm playing as Russia and I need to export wood to the Qing Empire, how will the infrastructure be consumed? Will the infrastructure from St. Petersburg to Beijing be consumed, that is, those states that are in the gap between the trade centers of countries, for example, states located along the Trans-Siberian railway line, or will there be a load only on the state with a trade center or on all states of the exporting country? This issue is very worrying. Is it possible to add trade routes in the future, nodes for trade by land, similar to those that are on the sea, so that the infrastructure of certain states on the trade route is consumed, as it was historically? Ideally, it seems to me, trade by land could complement trade by sea and ocean. After all, even if you used convoys to transport goods from one port to another, then you still need to deliver them from the port to the trading capital.
Sorry for my bad english, I used a translator.
Sincerely,
Tal_Tal
 
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igrgurina

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I couldn't wrap my head around the mathematics of defining the trade prices (Not only I am bad at math but can't focus too much right now), but if anyone could help me with a question:

How feasible would it be to have a large part of your economy based around importing stuff from one country and exporting to another? If for any reason that country can't import itself (Maybe it lacks convoys)
This would work perfectly for landlocked countries, if you have access to the sea, you can be a middleman for them
 
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Eddie121

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and as the route grows and the difference between the purchase and sale price shrinks, tariffs will take away more and more of that profit until it’s simply more profitable for the Pops in the Trade Center to stop growing the trade route level, and indeed may end up reducing the level in order to make more money for themselves.​
So we finally get profit-seeking trade routes!
But will the trade centers actually pay for their convoys? And stop upgrading trade routes if it's not profitable after deducing the cost of convoys?

I believe we need both tariffs and transportation costs as limiting factors on trade. Even today we don't have seemless, zero-cost global trade.
 
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FranklyJustNess

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The profitabilty overall would also need to include the convoy costs, and the wages for the trade centre. Since costs are not included and profit is what is to be presumably maximized, there needs to be another work around. Also to note if we include price elasticity the graphs might be a very bad visual representation ( base price and aet min and max exist).
I do assume the shape of the curve all other things remaining equal, however I doesn't really matter that much how it looks like, because as long as it's not just a straight line, a single straight line will estimate it poorly. It can have local minimum and maximum and the conclusion would be the exact same, that it needs some more intervals to be estimated closer to truth. And I am also aware that in the game that won't be a perfect curve, but a step function. We are talking about estimating it though and the proposed solution simply skips too much of the complexity of this curve and reaches weird conclusions, and I really don't see how it can stay like that.
 
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mikhail321

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This would work perfectly for landlocked countries, if you have access to the sea, you can be a middleman for them
I don’t think that is very feasible at large scale. your trade purchase price is mean of the market price before All trades and the current market price, so if you as a middlemen don’t produce a good, your market price before trades would be sky-high. So even if you import enough to make the actual market price low, the purchasing price for your trades would be above base prices, and re-export potential will be very limited
 
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mursolini

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This is not how it is described to work. Let’s say A has a demand of 50 and supply 200, making the price 10, while B has demand of 200 and supply 50, making the price 30 (i don’t know exact pricing formula, so let’s stay with these assumptions) in a common market demand and supply would be equal, so 150 will go from A to B and the price is 20. If you establish a trade route, though, the trade center in this situation will be making 10 pounds of profit, as described in my previous post, so the trade route will continue to grow. Let’s assume it will grow until trade profit is 5. This would mean that they will send around 190 units, making price of wood in A 22.5, and in B 17.5. So the consumers of wood in B will get MORE wood and at a LOWER price than if they simply join markets. This means two things: 1 trade-oriented playstyle would have a significant edge over trying to be self-reliant (not accounting for political disruptions to trade) 2. Inviting someone to join your market is a really bad idea, destroying value for both of you. I’m fine with the first implications, as it may be justified as reflecting the greater variety, competition and specialization within one product group, that usually comes with more international trade. The second implication really bothers me, however.
Did you just make an error in your calculations? price in A should be lower then price in B, trade center isn`t supposed to trade at a loss. So in case of B having a price of 22.5 and A 17.5 it does work out. markets aren`t equalized fully.
 

mikhail321

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Did you just make an error in your calculations? price in A should be lower then price in B, trade center isn`t supposed to trade at a loss. So in case of B having a price of 22.5 and A 17.5 it does work out. markets aren`t equalized fully.
The trade centers don’t use market prices, they use their own sales and purchasing prices which are the average of market price and initial price, so they won’t be making a loss in this situation. If you look at the France-Russian trade route in the screenshot, you’ll see that the wine trade route from France to Russia will actually make wine cheaper in Russia than in France, while trade center is still making profit. Seemingly counterintuitive system, but Wiz seems quite fond of it
 
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wisecat

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could for example Russia trade over land with China in 1836 despite clearly not having any infrastructure for transporting the goods across Siberia in any realistic manner?
Sorry, but you are quite wrong here.
There was quite a lot of trade between Russia and China well before 1836 - officially since 1689 and the Treaty of Nerchinsk and unofficially even earlier.
It was done via rivers + overland route. See Kyakhta trade for more details. Main trade items were silk, tea and cotton.
So, by 1836 there was a long history of China-Russia trade and well established routes and merchant houses who used those routes.
 
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wisecat

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Nice DD. More realistic system.
However questions remain:

1. Can we still close individual trade routes completely if we wish so?

2. If trade routes now grow and shrink automatically - can we prioritise distribution of convoys between trade routes if there is a shortage of convoys?

3. If convoys are also distributed manually - please explain how it is done.

4. Is there now any way to stop export of a specific good without embargoing every other country in the world? Suppose I am the first country to manufacture steam convoys and I want my own trade routes changed to steamships, before I sell even one to any other country.

5. If we can stop export of a specific good - what will happen with surplus of such goods if it is not consumed by POPs or factories in my country (thinking mostly about military goods)? Earlier you have mentioned that there will be no stockpiles of any goods(which I still believe to be a wrong decision).
 
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cheetawilliam

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I don't think that would work in most cases. In your example, Germany would probably just buy cheaper tea from China directly.

But there are some interesting edge cases! If China was embargoing Germany, a middleman might be able to make a profit if Germany didn't have good alternative sources of tea.
Only if Germany has the port and merchant industry large enough to supply its entire country. Lots of the smaller german states won't have a coastline I suppose.
 
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Al-Khalidi

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One minor thing here, on the screenshot we can see that Ottoman and Qing markets are called Turkish and Chinese markets, perhaps it shouldn't be the case? (I assume they belong to Ottomans and Chinese bcz it looks like its quite early in the game. )
 
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It does simulate transport costs through the increase of convoys you through changing your port production from wooden ships to steam boats. The less ports you have (which means you're paying less) the less convoys but you can get more convoys per port by converting to more efficient ships.
For the profit margins of traders sure, but I was thinking more in terms of the effects on the market prices. The impact on local prices should be modified by how much it costs to transport the stuff.
 
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FranklyJustNess

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I feel like trade agreement should still have some per route cost. If they are just free, then it becomes quite similar to customs union as you can just import/export most of the relevant between markets goods. I feel like there should be more incentive to do the leap and join another market rather than only trade and have similar effects with less risk.
 
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Does distance play a part in the trade routes? That is, if I'm the USA, and I'm looking to import wood, and I see that Madagascar has slightly lower prices than, say, Brazil, would there be something that makes the more distant country not the winner?
I assume that the number of convoys the trade route uses is affected by the length/number of sea nodes between you and the target.
 
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Nice DD. More realistic system.
However questions remain:

1. Can we still close individual trade routes completely if we wish so?

2. If trade routes now grow and shrink automatically - can we prioritise distribution of convoys between trade routes if there is a shortage of convoys?

3. If convoys are also distributed manually - please explain how it is done.

4. Is there now any way to stop export of a specific good without embargoing every other country in the world? Suppose I am the first country to manufacture steam convoys and I want my own trade routes changed to steamships, before I sell even one to any other country.

5. If we can stop export of a specific good - what will happen with surplus of such goods if it is not consumed by POPs or factories in my country (thinking mostly about military goods)? Earlier you have mentioned that there will be no stockpiles of any goods(which I still believe to be a wrong decision).
  1. You can close your own trade routes but not the AI owned routes.
  2. Nope
  3. If there is a shortage all routes will drop in equal amounts.
  4. You can use the policy "Protect domestic supply" mentioned in this dd.
  5. Goods are always sold even if there are no buyers. There is no fixed money supply in this game so the producers of the good get newly created money.
 
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