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Victoria 3 - Dev Diary #54 - Trade Revisions

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Hello and welcome to another Victoria 3 development diary. Today is going to be a slightly different diary, as instead of bringing up a system we haven’t previously covered we’ll be talking about a whole bunch of changes that have happened to Trade, which was previously talked about in Dev Diary #38.

As is fairly common knowledge, we are constantly iterating on our systems, and even when something has been written about in a dev diary that doesn’t mean we’re a hundred percent happy with it or aren’t looking to tweak it in some way. For Trade specifically, there were two main issues that were brought up repeatedly from internal testing and feedback, but which we hadn’t had figured out the solution for yet by the time the Trade dev diary was written.

These issues were that first, managing the precise level of your trade routes was far too micro-intensive, and second, that Tariffs didn’t function as an effective trade barrier. These weren’t the *only* issues mind, but they were the two big ones that we needed to design some sort of solution for. Well, design and implement a solution we did, so here I am to tell you all about it.

So then, what has changed about trade? Well first of all, let’s go over what hasn’t changed. Namely, that trade routes are still established by a nation, from their market to another market, and can be either an import route (which creates buy orders in the foreign market and sell orders in your own market) or an export route (which does the opposite). Trade Routes also still require Convoys to transport goods along sea routes, and still create Trade Centers whose employees manage and profit from those routes.

Trade Routes are created from the Trade Lens, where you will get both a map and list overview of the most suitable markets to trade with
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As to what has changed, probably the single most important difference is that you no longer directly manage the level of your trade routes. Instead, all newly established trade routes start at level 1, and will grow (or shrink) on a weekly basis based on market conditions. So if you’re playing as Britain and looking to import Wood from Brazil, instead of setting the exact level of Wood imports that makes sense for your needs right away, you simply establish the route and it will grow towards those needs over time. It’s also worth noting in this context that we have removed the national limit on the number of trade routes you can have, and replaced it with a fixed bureaucracy cost per route (which does not increase with route level) instead, to encourage countries to have fewer, more impactful trade routes.

So what are the market conditions that affect whether trade routes grow, shrink, or stay unchanged? Well, the single most important factor is profitability. A trade route makes money by buying goods that are cheap in the exporting market and selling them at a higher price in the importing market, but it isn’t as simple as just looking at the current market price. Instead, each trade route has a purchase price and sale price which are calculated based on the difference between the pre-trade and post-trade price of the goods in the two markets.

To maintain naval trade routes, you will need convoys. If your supply network is under strain due to lack of convoy production or attacks on your shipping lanes, your trade routes will start shrinking over time.
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Confused yet? To try and explain, I’ll use the Wood import route to Britain from Brazil as an example. To get the purchase price in the exporting (Brazilian) market, we first calculate what the price of Wood would be in that market if it had no trade routes exporting or importing wood, i.e. if it was set only from local supply and demand. Let’s make up a number and say that the pre-trade price of Wood in Brazil is 10 (quite a low price) and the post-trade price of Wood in Brazil is 20 (a very average price). To get the purchase price, we simply calculate the midpoint between these two prices, aka 15. This means that we assume that our trade route is paying, on average, £15 for each unit of Wood they are exporting. The same calculation is then done in the British market to get the sale price, which I’m just going to arbitrarily set at £25. From here on, the math should be simple enough - each unit of Wood imported to Britain from Brazil generates £10 in profits for the Trade Center.

There’s a lot of factors that go into whether or a trade route will grow or shrink, but fortunately you don’t have to know them all by heart, since the level prediction tooltip will break them down for you!
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Well, it would be that simple if it weren’t for Tariffs. Tariffs are collected on both ends of the trade route, with the exporting market collecting Export tariffs and the importing market collecting Import tariffs. Under the new system, Tariffs can be a highly effective trade barrier because they are calculated against the base price of the goods rather than the market price. What this means is that if the Import tariff on Wood is 25%, that Import tariff is always going to be £5.

If you have a degree in economics or you’re just surprisingly good at following along with my overcomplicated explanations, you may already have picked up on the reason that setting against the base price makes Tariffs a more effective trade barrier. Namely, that it disproportionately affects high-volume, low-revenue-per-unit routes. For our example Wood route above, a tariff of £5 means a full 50% reduction in profits, and as the route grows and the difference between the purchase and sale price shrinks, tariffs will take away more and more of that profit until it’s simply more profitable for the Pops in the Trade Center to stop growing the trade route level, and indeed may end up reducing the level in order to make more money for themselves.

It’s worth noting that Trade Routes can never shrink below level 1, and so will always trade a small number of goods even if doing so at a loss, so that for instance you can always import a small quantity of weapons or ships needed to kickstart your military or merchant marine - assuming that you’re willing to subsidize the Trade Center if it doesn’t have other, more profitable routes to make up for the losses.

So then, is creating trade routes and letting them do their own thing the only way you interact with trade now? Well, no. Since we’ve taken away the need to adjust routes manually, this means that we can now put emphasis on other, more indirect ways to manipulate the flow of goods between markets. These include strengthening Trade Agreements (which now remove both bureaucracy cost and tariffs from all trade routes between the two countries) and adding the ability to place Embargoes on countries you want to keep out of your market.

Mexico decides that it has had enough of American meddling in their market - it’s Embargo time!
DD54_4.png

However, probably the single most important tool we’ve added for controlling trade is Market Good Policies. There are 3 such policies, which you can set separately for each individual good in your market:
  • Protect Domestic Supply: This market good policy removes import tariffs and increases export tariffs, encouraging countries to supply more of this good to your market and discourages them from exporting it away from you, which might be useful if you for instance want to keep the price of Clippers low so that you’ll pay less to maintain your ports.
  • Encourage Exports: As the name pretty much explicitly states, this market good policy removes export tariffs and increases import tariffs, which is highly useful if you for instance want to drive up the price of Furniture so that your Furniture Industries will see increased profits.
  • No Priority: This is the default market good policy, which sets both Import and Export Tariffs at the baseline determined by your Trade laws. To give you a couple examples of what this baseline could be, under Mercantilism you have overall lower export tariffs and higher import tariffs, while Free Trade removes all tariffs altogether.

Well, that’s about all there is to say about the changes to Trade. Overall, we’re quite happy with the changes we’ve made and how much better it feels to play with compared to the old 100% manual system. Join us again next week, where I will cover Achievements!
 
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acidsun

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I couldn't wrap my head around the mathematics of defining the trade prices (Not only I am bad at math but can't focus too much right now), but if anyone could help me with a question:

How feasible would it be to have a large part of your economy based around importing stuff from one country and exporting to another? If for any reason that country can't import itself (Maybe it lacks convoys)
 
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GrafKeks

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I will also mention that the first version of this system strictly used market price and it played much worse.
If I may ask, was I right in assuming that using market-prices results in far less trade?
 

FranklyJustNess

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So as a bulk answer to all the questions about the special purchase/sale price: Does it make perfect sense from a realistic standpoint? No. It's there to allow trade to change prices in a way that doesn’t always end up hovering around base price, and to allow countries that specialize in overproducing certain goods to benefit more from exports. We chose gameplay over realism in this case
It just doesn't make sense to estimate the price-supply curve with a straight line. It is the simulation of the game that creates it as a curve, the more of the good is supplied, the less next 10 units will lower the price.

But as long as the game counts profitability of a lane as just a single trapezium it will be so far from precise answer that the odd prices will be a norm. It's basically just hoping that two errors of estimations will cancel themselves out and lead to something that looks right. Imagine the players that will consistently look at their trade routes and see "buys at 60, sells at 30, makes profit, will expand", it really won't be an edge case scenerio.

(The profitability (without tariffs) would be counted by also subtracting area of an increasing curve of prices at home, but just the prices of the target nation show the problem)

(Forgot to label the dark green lane as the curve for the nation we set an export route to)
paint.jpg
 
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cheetawilliam

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How would you earn money as the middle man for this? Could you as the netherlands set up an import route of tea from china and then an export route to the germans? Costing you bureaucracy but potentially earning you money on both ends?
 
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MajorHeartfire

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Can someone help me with the math here... just trying to confirm the details.

Why does a 25% Import tariff come out to $5?

$5 is 25% of $20, but the only place a $20 shows up in the example above is as the post-trade market price for Brazil.

The sale price from Brazil with the new formula is $15. The purchase price in Britain is $25. The profit given to the trade center is $10.

The example states this is a British-owned import route that is bringing in Brazilian wood, which means the trade center that collects the $10 profit is a British trade center, correct? The Import tariff here "reduces" profitability by 50%.

So, is the purchase price in Britain (pre-tariff) $20 which is then increased by $5 because of the 25% tariff? Thus, the original $10 profit (for the trade center) we were given is actually just $5 profit for the trade center and $5 revenue for the British budget?
 

BrotherJonathan

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Especially like the changes to tariffs considering that tariffs in Vic II basically didn't do anything other than give a small boost to revenue.
 
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Ruck

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Interesting. If there are parallel trade routes - if, for example, you have a trade route with the USA exporting wine to them and they have a route importing wine from you - how is the ratio calculated? The interactions on price and profit might be... interesting, I'd guess.

Is this even possible ? Like why should I import wine from a market which is already exporting to me, so I am already importing ? I would expect that the game doesnt allow importing things from the market where those things are already beeing imported.
 

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Is this even possible ? Like why should I import wine from a market which is already exporting to me, so I am already importing ? I would expect that the game doesnt allow importing things from the market where those things are already beeing imported.
You might do that because trade centers only collect the profits from your trade routes. So if someone else is exporting wine to you, you're not getting any of the profits from the trade in your trade centers.
 
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lordvagrant

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So i still need to setup dozens of trade routes for every good i need to import? Or is there a way to automate this? I cannot imagine it beeing fun to manually check for trade every now and then and rearange 10 trade goods i now suddenly need and stop routes I dont need...
You can automate it by adding them to your market

Will we have a trade goods map to see where the cheapest good is produced so we can establish a trade route there?

Will we be able to help those countries that have natural/political conditions to produce cheaper goods to increase their production for the benefit of our trade centers?

EDIT: is it possible to control the production and price from a foreign nation so trade centers make a profit and the player can claim tariffs too? Maximizing profits for the importing nation while exploiting the exporting nation?
If you buy someone's goods it becomes more profitable for them, so they will likely increase production while it is profitable.

Oooh, that's cool. Although since trade routes now scale automatically by market logic, I assume its impossible to efficiently wage economic warfare against foreign markets by setting up trade routes to buy all the grain or guns from under them, or force furniture into a furniture-oversaturated market, since it'll become quickly unprofitable and thus not grow? Unless you can find ways to consume all those guns and grain
Your economic warfare ideas seem to be based on hurting yourself more that the target. If you have that much money to waste, just pay soldiers to occupy and devastate them.

In theory, if instead of joining a market of my neighbour, I established a trade agreement with them, and then placed an order to import or export every good profitable, would I get a lot of profitable trade centers creating a lot of wealth for basically free?
You're employing bureaucrats and traders who may otherwise work in a constructive industry, and the wealth is going to the traders rather than the producing building owners who may have been able to put that money into the investment pool.

I honestly wish the trade routes would just manage themselves. The fact that I have to oversee setting up or cancelling and then tarrif managing trade routes for every single type of goods, or even just 7 types of goods I have too much of and 7 types of goods I don't have enough of, with the entire world, the types constantly changing, to make sure my economy stays competetive, is a micro nightmare to me.
Join a market and let the market leader mange it for you, at the mere cost of most of the profits.
 
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Ruck

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You might do that because trade centers only collect the profits from your trade routes. So if someone else is exporting wine to you, you're not getting any of the profits from the trade in your trade centers.

But If I "make" the exact same traderoute to import wine then I suddenly get profits in my trade center ?
That doesnt sound right. So we would have to check all the time who is exporting to us and make the exact same trade route a second time, so that the "exporteurs" trade center is not getting all the profits alone.

I think it makes more sense split the trade center profits in a logical way between the importeur and exporteur and then dont allow a second duplicate trade route.
 
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hazard151

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But If I "make" the exact same traderoute to import wine then I suddenly get profits in my trade center ?
That doesnt sound right. So we would have to check all the time who is exporting to us and make the exact same trade route a second time, so that the "exporteurs" trade center is not getting all the profits alone.

I think it makes more sense split the trade center profits in a logical way between the importeur and exporteur and then dont allow a second duplicate trade route.

Think of it as 'where does the weight of the trade balance lie'. When you operate the trade route it is your sailors and traders who take the money home, so it works out for you to try and establish a competing trade route just so that the entire profit of the route doesn't go to your rival. Even better if you have cheaper transportation, as that means the traders prefer your ships.


Although I'd like to see trade routes have a scaling cost of Bureaucracy, with higher level routes costing more bureaucratic oversight to handle things like taxes, docking fees etc. Perfectly fine if there's a flat cost to having the trade route at all, but a highly active trade route hauling half the world's cotton should cost the government more to run than a route hauling only a few units at a time.
 
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GrafKeks

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It just doesn't make sense to estimate the price-supply curve with a straight line. It is the simulation of the game that creates it as a curve, the more of the good is supplied, the less next 10 units will lower the price.
It' not about estimating it, I assume it's likely a choice to increase trade attractiveness and specialization, and possibly another money supply for the open system. Also there is kind of a price elasticity in the game given that there are base prices, if we have enough demand there can be situations where another good won't move the price etc.
But as long as the game counts profitability of a lane as just a single trapezium it will be so far from precise answer that the odd prices will be a norm. It's basically just hoping that two errors of estimations will cancel themselves out and lead to something that looks right.
Sell you know if n is thirty, just gotta pick your CL.
(The profitability (without tariffs) would be counted by also subtracting area of an increasing curve of prices at home, but just the prices of the target nation show the problem)

(Forgot to label the dark green lane as the curve for the nation we set an export route to)
View attachment 867279
The profitabilty overall would also need to include the convoy costs, and the wages for the trade centre. Since costs are not included and profit is what is to be presumably maximized, there needs to be another work around. Also to note if we include price elasticity the graphs might be a very bad visual representation ( base price and aet min and max exist).
 

arosenberger14

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Looks like a substantially better system than the previous one. I do wish though that profitability took into account the transport cost of goods to help simulate how trade became more profitable once things like railroads and steamships became commonplace.
 
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Howicus

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How would you earn money as the middle man for this? Could you as the netherlands set up an import route of tea from china and then an export route to the germans? Costing you bureaucracy but potentially earning you money on both ends?

I don't think that would work in most cases. In your example, Germany would probably just buy cheaper tea from China directly.

But there are some interesting edge cases! If China was embargoing Germany, a middleman might be able to make a profit if Germany didn't have good alternative sources of tea.
 

camerons101

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Looks like a substantially better system than the previous one. I do wish though that profitability took into account the transport cost of goods to help simulate how trade became more profitable once things like railroads and steamships became commonplace.
It does simulate transport costs through the increase of convoys you through changing your port production from wooden ships to steam boats. The less ports you have (which means you're paying less) the less convoys but you can get more convoys per port by converting to more efficient ships.
 
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Ruck

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Think of it as 'where does the weight of the trade balance lie'. When you operate the trade route it is your sailors and traders who take the money home, so it works out for you to try and establish a competing trade route just so that the entire profit of the route doesn't go to your rival. Even better if you have cheaper transportation, as that means the traders prefer your ships.


Although I'd like to see trade routes have a scaling cost of Bureaucracy, with higher level routes costing more bureaucratic oversight to handle things like taxes, docking fees etc. Perfectly fine if there's a flat cost to having the trade route at all, but a highly active trade route hauling half the world's cotton should cost the government more to run than a route hauling only a few units at a time.

The only question is, if it works like that. So if that side who operates (makes) the trade route will have to give ships for trading and pay maintenance and other costs. Otherwise it would be weird gameplay decision, as everyone would constantly look around whos importing from us and make the same trade rout again as an duplicate, so that our trade center can make some profit as well. It would be then a gameplay decision which is always good and hence a nobrainer to make.

Maybe it would be easier to allow only one trade route in one direction and just let that nation be responsible for transports which is importing ? Basically the guy who wants the goods, has to pay for transportation, either using his own ships/trains or pay extra if he has no trains/ships (only possible if the exporteur has free ships/trains).
 

lordvagrant

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But If I "make" the exact same traderoute to import wine then I suddenly get profits in my trade center ?
That doesnt sound right. So we would have to check all the time who is exporting to us and make the exact same trade route a second time, so that the "exporteurs" trade center is not getting all the profits alone.

I think it makes more sense split the trade center profits in a logical way between the importeur and exporteur and then dont allow a second duplicate trade route.
If someone is exporting to you, you get the benefits of having that good available to your pops/industries as well as a reduced market price, without having to pay for shipping and employing the necessary workers to run it. If you have the spare workers/clippers and want rich trader pops, make your own import. You may also find that a third party could provide the goods cheaper but they don't have the clippers for export.
 
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