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Victoria 3 - Dev Diary #26 - Peace Deals


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Hello and welcome back to another Victoria 3 development diary! Last week we wrapped up our dev diaries on War, and now we’ll be bringing both Diplomacy and War to a close (for the being, that is) by talking about (appropriately enough) how to negotiate an end to one of your wars. We’re of course not done talking about warfare and will return to the topic at a later point, but for now, let’s talk peace.

So, let’s say you launched that diplomatic play to get the Dutch colony you’ve been eyeing for years thinking that you’d have it in the bag, all the way up until the French decided to back them up and you found yourself dragged into a bloody and costly conflict that you now want nothing more than to get out of. What do you do?

There’s actually two different ways of making peace in Victoria 3: Capitulating and Negotiating Peace. However, before we explain how these work, we first need to explain a crucial mechanic to all forms of peace-making: War Support.

War Support is a measure of the political will in your country to continue fighting in a particular war, and goes from -100 to +100. Each country will start a war with a high degree of War Support (currently always 100, though we’re considering having it start on different levels based on how politically unified your country is), which declines over time. The factors that govern how quickly War Support drops include:
  • Having your territory occupied by the enemy
  • Pops dying and being wounded in battle and from attrition
  • Internal turmoil in your country, for example because your economy is worsening due to the war
  • Whether the enemy controls their War Goals

Siam is in a bad way in this war, losing more than 11 War Support every single week. Unless they can turn things around quickly, capitulation isn’t far away. As with the previous war dev diaries, please note that any numbers/interfaces/tooltips shown are very much not final!
DD26_1.png

When their War Support hits -100, a country is forced to Capitulate. A country that Capitulates cedes all War Goals that are targeting them and gives up on all unpressed War Goals they were still holding. It’s also possible for most countries part of a war to choose to Capitulate at any time, even right after the war has broken out. This will immediately let them exit the war at the same cost outlined above, but may also incur a diplomatic penalty if the country capitulates early, especially if they had nothing to lose by doing so (as it would be seen as a cowardly betrayal of your allies). War Leaders are also able to Capitulate, and this doesn’t usually end the war, as they are only conceding War Goals targeting themselves and their subjects, and a new War Leader will be chosen to continue the fight on their side of the struggle. The only circumstance under which a Capitulation will end a War is if there are no War Goals left to fight over, which always results in an immediate end to hostilities.

However, it isn’t possible to simply attack a far-away country and force them to cede you distant lands simply by waiting for their War Support to tick down by itself. This is because any country that has a war goal targeting it which isn’t considered to be controlled by the enemy and still retains control of its own capital cannot have its War Support drop below 0. For example, let’s say that while playing as Brazil, you attack the Netherlands and demand they cede both Curacao and Guyana. You easily occupy Guyana but find that your navy is outmatched and you can’t land armies to take either Curacao or Amsterdam. As a result, you will be unable to force the Netherlands to Capitulate unless you actively choose to drop your War Goal on Curacao.

It’s possible to capitulate at any time during a war, even when it’s just started and War Support is at maximum - that it’s possible definitely doesn’t mean it’s a good idea, though!
DD26_2.png

So what then, of negotiated peace? This is quite a bit more complex than Capitulation, and can involve a whole host of countries that are part of the war. When making peace, countries involved in a war are split into three different categories:

War Leaders: This is the main participant on each side. War Leaders can propose peace deals and must ratify any proposed peace from the other War Leader in order for it to take effect.
Negotiators: This is any country that either holds a War Goal or has a War Goal targeting them and who are not one of the War Leaders. Negotiators must ratify any proposed peace deal from both the enemy and their own side in order for it to take effect.
Non-Negotiators: This is any country that doesn’t fall into the above two categories. They don’t play any active role in peace negotiations. Subjects whose Overlord is part of the war are also considered Non-Negotiators, as their Overlord negotiates on their behalf.

For a negotiated peace to happen, the War Leader on either side must first construct and propose a peace deal out of pressed War Goals. Unlike in many of our other Grand Strategy Games, peace deals in Victoria 3 isn’t necessarily just one side making demands - the War Leader can propose a mixed peace deal, in which War Goals are ceded from both sides. Once the War Leader is satisfied with the deal they’re proposing, they then send it out to both sides of the war for ratification.

This rebellion against Britain has turned into something of a brush war between the European Great Powers, with limited fighting in the colonies between Britain and its enemy France. War Support remains high, but if things take a bloodier turn both sides may find their populations quickly growing weary of the fighting.
DD26_3.png

That’s right - in order to have your proposed peace deal take effect, you need not just the enemy War Leader or even the enemy War Leader and Negotiators agree to it - all Negotiators on your own side must agree as well. This means that while you can try to cut a deal with your Dutch enemy to give you everything you want from them in exchange for selling out your ally Prussia, the likely answer to that from Prussia is going to be a firm and resounding ‘No’, at least so long as they aren’t truly desperate for a peace. However, if you’re willing to be fair about the whole thing and give up something of your own as well, they’re going to be more receptive to your proposals.

War Support plays a key role in determining what kind of peace deals the AI will agree to, with both their own and the enemy’s War Support factoring in: Even if their war support has dropped into the negative, the AI isn’t going to agree to a long list of demands from a country that is themselves a few weeks away from capitulating.

That’s all for today! Now that we’ve talked about Economy, Politics, Diplomacy and War, join us again next week as we cover a topic that touches on all of them - Technology!
 
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grommile

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But your main defender actually peaces out and cedes some part of your territory over.
They can't do that to you, because as the target of an enemy wargoal, you are a Negotiator.

They can Capitulate and thus cede the wargoals targeting themselves, but they can't Negotiate a peace that cedes the wargoals targeting you without your consent.
 
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firesoul

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Unlike in many of our other Grand Strategy Games, peace deals in Victoria 3 isn’t necessarily just one side making demands - the War Leader can propose a mixed peace deal, in which War Goals are ceded from both sides.
Yes, this is *the* feature that I wanted from Victoria 3. The game is basically an automatic buy for me now
 

BeauNiddle

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Thank you very much for the dev diary,
one thing that I still wonder and am concerned about is the way how Non-Negotiators are determined and then treated. Imagine you have a powerful navy while your ally (which is the war leader) is rather powerful on land, the ally would claim all the war goals because he occupies territory and you dominate the sea sinking most ships of a powerful navy and raiding hundreds of convoys... you would still be considered a Non-Negotiator and possibly not get anything out of the war goals since you can't object and nobody needs to care about your demands.
The same would also be applicable on land if we imagine a WW1 scenario and Russia fights off the Germans nicely but doesn't hold any meaningful territory, the same issue would arise.

As has been pointed out - if you have a wargoal, either for you or against you - you count as a negotiator

Negotiators: This is any country that either holds a War Goal or has a War Goal targeting them and who are not one of the War Leaders. Negotiators must ratify any proposed peace deal from both the enemy and their own side in order for it to take effect.

It doesn't matter who conquers the war goal - you or one of your allies - it still counts as a loss for the opponent and they will have to negotiate for it. Only if NEITHER you or you allies have captured the war goal does it count as non-pressed and can be ignore in negotiations.
 
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Rockphed

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well guess we can no longer sell out ai allies.
You can still sell out your subjects.
I think this falls into a problem I've seen a lot on these forums of envisioning World War I as a single war from a single Diplomatic Play, when it's much more realistic to view it as multiple wars going on at once.
Initial play of Austria-Hungary demanding stuff from Serbia, Germany supports Austria while Russia backs Serbia. Then France and Britain either join or France makes a play for Alsace. Italy makes a play for Austrian land and the Ottoman Empire joins Austria while Britain and France support Italy and add various war goals in the middle east.

Three years later the US makes a play at Germany about ship sinking or Germany tries to make Mexico a subject. USA puts "bring down to size" as their primary demand against Germany.
Will there be the possibility for a winning "Negotiator" country and the war leader of the same side to escalate tensions between themselves if either one refuses to agree to giving the other their "rightful share" in the peace deal?

For a real life comparison, I am thinking of WWI Italy, which was denied the territories promised by UK and France in the pact of London (diplomatic play) in the Versailles "peace deal". This was the main reason that caused a sharp rise of radical movements (communist and later fascist), generated a period of popular uprisings in the 20s and distanced Italy from the former entente countries.

I am talking of a situation in which, for instance, Russia starts a diplomatic play against Austria for, let's say, Galicia. I as Serbia decide to support Russia and add my own wargoal of annexing the Banat.
From what I understand I will be able to stall the peace deal until Russia decides to allow me to get what I want, even i was crushed and fully occupied by the Austrians. Will this affect our relations in any way, or change my POP views of political issues?

Also, will there be a possibility for Russia in this case to just ignore or bypass Serbia and strike a peace deal anyway?
If you are totally occupied, you will capitulate in short order.

The only peace Russia can sign without you is a total capitulation.
 
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yurcick

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Initial play of Austria-Hungary demanding stuff from Serbia, Germany supports Austria while Russia backs Serbia. Then France and Britain either join or France makes a play for Alsace.
So far so good.

Italy makes a play for Austrian land and the Ottoman Empire joins Austria while Britain and France support Italy and add various war goals in the middle east.
Not ideal, because it needs all the previous participants to support the needed sides (Germany has to support Austria, and Russia has to support Italy, which doesn't make political sense, unless we remember that it's the same WW1, in fact, and not a separate conflict).
And if these are separate wars with not identical participants, what makes them stop completely after the defeated side capitulates for the first time?

Three years later the US makes a play at Germany about ship sinking or Germany tries to make Mexico a subject. USA puts "bring down to size" as their primary demand against Germany.
"Cutting Germany down to size" just doesn't cut it, because despite crippling war indemnities, Germany didn't lose that much territory compared to some other participants, and the territory it lost hadn't been acquired in the previous 20 years.

Where did Russia, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans go, in game mechanics terms? Why did Poland appear? At least for A-H dissolution it could be, in theory, gamed that the US demanded it in 1917. But for Russia: why did it break?

On a side note: why didn't Belgium capitulate shortly after being fully captured, preventing Germany from supplying their armies in northern France?

I'm afraid that while the diplomatic play/fixed wargoal mechanics look good for most conflicts, Great Wars should work differently (as it was the case in V2, although the difference was smaller).
Great Wars should allow adding participants after the war started. They shouldn't allow one-sided capitulation of minors, at least on the same terms as with the regular conflicts. They should allow adding wargoals after the war started, or at least they should automatically add some ultimate wargoal of dismantling the losing empire, splitting it among ethnic lines and stripping it of its colonies in favour of the winners.
 
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yurcick

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Actually, the Belgium case shouldn't be that special, Great War-only.
Any form of capitulation should allow former allies and enemies military and supply access for the next 5 years.
 

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This kind of peace deal where both sides give and take stuff is what the community wanted to see for a long time in Paradox Grand Strategy Games.

I hope the AI can handle this. If it does then I can see this being very good and perhaps something which could be brought into, say EU 5. But if the AI can't handle this and agrees to make stupid negotiated peace deals which don't make any sense, I can see this being game breaking. Having said that, unless you dare to dream, you cannot achieve. Here's me hoping this works as intended.
 
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EGaffney

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That's France in occupation of northern Portugal, and overlord of Spain, right? Hmm, I think that is not the first time we have seen that. Nerf France pls.
 
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Very interesting, thanks!
Looking forward to the Q&A Session today.
 

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My current thinking on this is:
1) If the player is occupying their war goals and is able to keep their war support high, eventually the enemy will capitulate and the war will end
2) If the player themselves is prevented from going below 0 war support because they have unassailable war goals and using this to keep the war going forever, the AI should be willing to drop those war goals
3) I'm considering adding it so that a war goal that a country is unable to occupy eventually gets automatically dropped

This would basically mean that it's impossible for wars to go on forever, eventually a resolution of some sort would be forced.
A follow up question. What is the ideal war length? How long should wars lasts and what factors should determine whether a war goes on longer or shorter?
 

Rockphed

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So far so good.


Not ideal, because it needs all the previous participants to support the needed sides (Germany has to support Austria, and Russia has to support Italy, which doesn't make political sense, unless we remember that it's the same WW1, in fact, and not a separate conflict).
And if these are separate wars with not identical participants, what makes them stop completely after the defeated side capitulates for the first time?


"Cutting Germany down to size" just doesn't cut it, because despite crippling war indemnities, Germany didn't lose that much territory compared to some other participants, and the territory it lost hadn't been acquired in the previous 20 years.

Where did Russia, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans go, in game mechanics terms? Why did Poland appear? At least for A-H dissolution it could be, in theory, gamed that the US demanded it in 1917. But for Russia: why did it break?

When Russia left the war Germany and Austria took either direct or indirect control of much of eastern Europe in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Germany lost all of it (and more) in the Treaty of Versailles.

I think Russia broke because they ended up with too many radicalized pops after 3 years of the deprivations of war. The ottomans broke because they stopped having subjects in the middle east.

On a side note: why didn't Belgium capitulate shortly after being fully captured, preventing Germany from supplying their armies in northern France?

Belgium moved their capital to Ypres? I admit that I am not totally sold on the system working for modeling WW1 perfectly. I definitely agree that the way the system works presently looks like WW1 going the way it did is a very low probability option when most historians agree that the way WW1 started was pretty logical based on what each participant knew and thought. In hindsight we can say "if Germany hadn't invaded Belgium, France and Britain would have glared at it across the Alsace frontier and maybe sent token men and supplies to Russia," but Germany was convinced that France and Britain were going to join the war, so it had to get the French out ASAP, so it had to go around the French frontier through Belgium.

Personally I want to hear people post stories about trying to knock participants out of wars really fast and ultimately getting their empire broken up after 4 years of long, hard war. Hearing the other story (the AI tried to bum rush my capital but I held them back and ultimately got the Americans to come bail me out; I don't think the one state I got out of the war was worth it) would also be cool. So I want the system to be able to handle the war to end all wars easily gracefully.
 
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Spartakusbund

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When Russia left the war Germany and Austria took either direct or indirect control of much of eastern Europe in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Germany lost all of it (and more) in the Treaty of Versailles.

I think Russia broke because they ended up with too many radicalized pops after 3 years of the deprivations of war. The ottomans broke because they stopped having subjects in the middle east.



Belgium moved their capital to Ypres? I admit that I am not totally sold on the system working for modeling WW1 perfectly. I definitely agree that the way the system works presently looks like WW1 going the way it did is a very low probability option when most historians agree that the way WW1 started was pretty logical based on what each participant knew and thought. In hindsight we can say "if Germany hadn't invaded Belgium, France and Britain would have glared at it across the Alsace frontier and maybe sent token men and supplies to Russia," but Germany was convinced that France and Britain were going to join the war, so it had to get the French out ASAP, so it had to go around the French frontier through Belgium.

Personally I want to hear people post stories about trying to knock participants out of wars really fast and ultimately getting their empire broken up after 4 years of long, hard war. Hearing the other story (the AI tried to bum rush my capital but I held them back and ultimately got the Americans to come bail me out; I don't think the one state I got out of the war was worth it) would also be cool. So I want the system to be able to handle the war to end all wars easily gracefully.
Germany did not think Britain was going to join the war, actually. They were pretty surprised when Britain used the Treaty of London as an excuse to enter the war.
 
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yurcick

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When Russia left the war Germany and Austria took either direct or indirect control of much of eastern Europe in the treaty of Brest-Litovsk
Exactly. And imagining it being part of the initial diplomatic play in 1914 is quite wild.
 

unmerged(760025)

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In hindsight we can say "if Germany hadn't invaded Belgium, France and Britain would have glared at it across the Alsace frontier and maybe sent token men and supplies to Russia,"

I don't know where you got the idea that France wouldn't have intervene or only send a token force to Russia if Germany hadn't invaded Belgium but that seems fairly unlikely to me. The fact that days prior to Germany declaration of war against France, they had demanded some reassurances that France would stay out of the conflict and the french government answer was... to order general mobilisation, I think their intentions were pretty clear.
 
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