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Europa Universalis IV - Development Diary 17th of May 2022

Hello there and welcome to our next Development Diary for Europa Universalis IV! For this week we will take a dive into the mission tree for Riga and into the additions to the game from the free update. So let’s get started!

Located at a commercially advantageous position, Riga enjoyed great wealth and affluence between the 13th and 15th century, during which she served as part of the well-known Hanseatic League. Despite its size, the city survived for many centuries, eventually becoming a manufacturing and mercantile center of whichever power had influence in their surrounding territory.

As for its mission tree we try to answer one question: is it possible to make playing (and staying as) an OPM enjoyable? The Rigan mission tree is relatively small, but it will lead your OPM of Riga into an unique direction of gameplay.
Rigan mission tree.png
The mission tree is split into three branches, focusing each on different tasks for your nation to do. Starting with the smallest of the three, the “City against the State” and “Develop Our City” missions focus on establishing authority of the Archbishop over the city of Riga as historically the city itself was very autonomous of its ruler.
What makes these missions special is that their rewards are the nature of the modifiers granted by them. Unlike usual permanent modifiers, your capital receives these triggered modifiers:
Rigan perma modifiers.png
The most right branch of the mission tree is made of the military missions. Although the intended playstyle is staying as small as possible, it is apparent that a beautiful city such as Riga needs a buffer state to keep it protected from Novgorod and the jaws of Commonwealth. Because of this the mission “Raise Riga’s Defense” will give you a subjugation casus belli against the Livonian Order. You will also gain +10% Morale for a limited amount of time, but that is all you get, so good luck in your first war.

“Subjugate the Livonians” will give you your final subjugation casus belli against the Teutonic Order and unlock decisions which will handle the estate privileges of your Livonian subject.
After the mission “Punish the Teutonic Order” you get the following event:
Teutonic Subjugation.png
Finally, the mission “The Knights of Riga” will be completable when you manage to keep the Teutonic Order and the Livonian Order loyal to you, and it gives you the following reward:
Knights of Riga.png
The rest of the mission tree focuses on trade, religion and Empire. With the mission “Contact the Emperor” you can join the HRE through the following event:
Join HRE event.png
With the mission “Papal Embassy” you gain another event which will make your capital into a seat for a Cardinal.
Finally, if you complete the mission “Compete with the Swedes”, “Trade Presence in Lübeck” and “Papal Embassy” the following event fires:
Religion as a Business.png
The Catholic Plutocracy is a Theocratic version of the Merchant Republic, but with one additional bonus: you are allowed to sell Indulgences to other Catholic countries!*

*Cannot sell Indulgences to countries which are at war with you or are subjects. You need at least 75 Papal Influence. You cannot sell an Indulgence to the Pope himself.
Offer Indulgence.png

Note: AI acceptance of the Indulgences is dependent on their current treasury, if they are in deficit and if they even need the extra stability. Countries with +1 stability for example have -50 reasons to accept it while countries with negative stability gain +50 reasons for every missing stability.​

Of course selling Indulgences is not without its consequences. Every time you sell one to a Catholic country you will increase the Reform Desire by 0.25%. Eventually, you could run out of customers this way as the Reformation will convert them to Protestantism.

If you happen to join the reformation (and repent for you sins of selling Indulgences) you will get the following event:
Protestantism as a Business.png

Note: The name of this government reform is a placeholder, and we appreciate suggestions for a better sounding name.​

While the Catholic Plutocracy focuses on earning money through the selling of Indulgences, the Theocratic Plutocracy is more concerned with spreading the Reformation. As such, the trade policy “Propagate Religion” will be available to you to convert Catholic provinces to your state religion - as long as you are either Hussite, Protestant, Reformed or Anglican.
Additionally, you get access to the following peace option:
Raid Heretic Church.png
This is the first experiment of a peace option which forces the losing country to destroy a building in one of their provinces. In this case it is the tax building, and it selects the province in this order: capital, then highest developed non-oversea province, then highest developed province.

Coming back to Riga’s mission tree, the mission “Sell Indulgences!” requires you to either sell Indulgences 5 times, or raid 5 heretic churches in total. From there your mission tree branches into four smaller paths of which have the following highlights:
  • The mission “Mercenary Contracts” halves the Army Professionalism cost of all recruited mercenary companies.
  • The mission “Handle the Reformation” reduces the trade power needed for Propagating Religion from 50% to 15%. It also unlocks a new casus belli against all heretic countries, with the only goal is to force convert them to your faith - you can NOT conquer any provinces with this cb though.
  • The mission “Break the Hansa” can be completed by improving the opinion of all members of Lübeck’s trade league. When completed, Lübeck will get an event where they are either forced to grant temporary privileges to their trade league members, which make them basically useless for Lübeck, or let them choose if they want to stick with Lübeck or want to join Riga’s Trade League.

Speaking of Hansa: we have some good news for every Merchant Republic enjoyer here!
With the free update, Merchant Republics gain full access to both their factions and estates. Although there were arguments that they should have one or another, we think it is a fair change if the merchant republic has access to both systems. Factions are very outdated and would require too much work for 1.34 to be reworked, which is why we have made this decision.

We also added a new government reform for Novgorod when they form Russia:
Great Veche Republic.png
While we are at the topic of government reforms: Dharma overhauled the system of government reforms for EU4, and has allowed players to customize their experience as they progress through their campaign. While we really like the concept, the amount of choices always felt a little bit lackluster.
Because of that we have decided to add new government reforms beyond the Tier 1 level, and rebalance existing non-Tier 1 reforms so you have more agency while picking your government reforms. Here is a peak into the more interesting reforms we are going to add for the Republics:
New Republican reforms.png
The general design idea is that government reforms should not necessarily be just a source for more modifiers to stack for you (though they will never really leave us either) but as changes and additions of mechanics of your country.
For example: the mechanic “Can force Re-election” allows you to use one simple decision at the cost of 5 Republican Tradition every 20 years to trigger the “Election!” event. Despite the fact that it is just one simple decision attached to a government reform, it can have a significant impact on your Monarch Power generation.

With the addition of these new reforms we aim to have around 4 or 5 government reforms to choose from per tier above the first one.

With the help of our newest colleague we also have started to add new reforms for the monarchies. Here you can see two new reforms:
New Monarchy reforms.png
Of course we are also reworking some of the older reforms too:
Old New Monarchy reforms.png
That was it for today! Next week's DD will be written by @Gnivom , and we won't be presenting any new content. Instead, we will be addressing the changes in the combat system introduced in the 1.33 update, and how we're polishing them further for 1.34 update (so that will be part of the upcoming free content, of course).

Until then I wish you all a nice week!
 
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and keep in mind that Trent banned the sale of indulgences.
Simply not true, as evident by the fact that indulgences are a thing within the Catholic Church to this very day! It condemned the abuses, but… well let’s just go straight to the source:

’DECREE CONCERNING INDULGENCES.
Whereas the power of conferring Indulgences was granted by Christ to the Church; and she has, even in the most ancient times, used the said power, delivered unto her of God; the sacred holy Synod teaches, and enjoins, that the use of Indulgences, for the Christian people most salutary, and approved of by the authority of sacred Councils, is to be retained in the Church; and It condemns with anathema those who either assert, that they are useless; or who deny that there is in the Church the power of granting them. In granting them, however, It desires that, in accordance with the ancient and approved custom in the Church, moderation be observed; lest, by excessive facility, ecclesastical discipline be enervated. And being desirous that the abuses which have crept therein, and by occasion of which this honourable name of Indulgences is blasphemed by heretics, be amended and corrected, It ordains generally by this decree, that all evil gains for the obtaining thereof,--whence a most prolific cause of abuses amongst the Christian people has been derived,--be wholly abolished. But as regards the other abuses which have proceeded from superstition, ignorance, irreverence, or from what soever other source, since, by reason of the manifold corruptions in the places and provinces where the said abuses are committed, they cannot conveniently be specially prohibited; It commands all bishops, diligently to collect, each in his own church, all abuses of this nature, and to report them in the first provincial Synod; that, after having been reviewed by the opinions of the other bishops also, they may forthwith be referred to the Sovereign Roman Pontiff, by whose authority and prudence that which may be expedient for the universal Church will be ordained; that this the gift of holy Indulgences may be dispensed to all the faithful, piously, holily, and incorruptly.’
 
none of those things would be an actual reason for indulgences, they're things Riga can build in the game. what I mean is what projects are the indulgences for in the in-game universe that are comparable to St. Peter's?

Simply not true, as evident by the fact that indulgences are a thing within the Catholic Church to this very day! It condemned the abuses, but… well let’s just go straight to the source:

’DECREE CONCERNING INDULGENCES.
Whereas the power of conferring Indulgences was granted by Christ to the Church; and she has, even in the most ancient times, used the said power, delivered unto her of God; the sacred holy Synod teaches, and enjoins, that the use of Indulgences, for the Christian people most salutary, and approved of by the authority of sacred Councils, is to be retained in the Church; and It condemns with anathema those who either assert, that they are useless; or who deny that there is in the Church the power of granting them. In granting them, however, It desires that, in accordance with the ancient and approved custom in the Church, moderation be observed; lest, by excessive facility, ecclesastical discipline be enervated. And being desirous that the abuses which have crept therein, and by occasion of which this honourable name of Indulgences is blasphemed by heretics, be amended and corrected, It ordains generally by this decree, that all evil gains for the obtaining thereof,--whence a most prolific cause of abuses amongst the Christian people has been derived,--be wholly abolished. But as regards the other abuses which have proceeded from superstition, ignorance, irreverence, or from what soever other source, since, by reason of the manifold corruptions in the places and provinces where the said abuses are committed, they cannot conveniently be specially prohibited; It commands all bishops, diligently to collect, each in his own church, all abuses of this nature, and to report them in the first provincial Synod; that, after having been reviewed by the opinions of the other bishops also, they may forthwith be referred to the Sovereign Roman Pontiff, by whose authority and prudence that which may be expedient for the universal Church will be ordained; that this the gift of holy Indulgences may be dispensed to all the faithful, piously, holily, and incorruptly.’
those abuses being the sales of indulgences in Germany, I never said indulgences no longer exist. but sending ducats to Riga for indulgences is nonsense
 
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For the Livonians we have created a new tag, Latgalia, that allows for gameplay centered on a Livonian culture country. I invite you to take a look at last week's DD, as we talked about this.
That's not correct. The Livonians are Uralic people, closely related to Estonians and Finns, while Latgalians are Indo-European, basically Latvians and closely related to Lithuanians and Old Prussians. While Latvians (Latgalians) and Livonians are neighbours, they are not related at all. So, Livonians aren't represented in the game, but Latvians (as Latgalians) are, both as a tag and culture. But yeah, since there's no new provinces being added, it's impossible to add the Livonian culture to the game, because they only populated the coastline and some parts of the Daugava river, by this time Riga was a German city and is portrayed correctly in the game as such.

Uralic languages, including Livonian:
Uralic_languages_(_ALL_LANGUAGES_).png
A closer look up to Baltic Finnic languages:
Balto-Finnic_languages.png

Baltic languages (some of them had most likely died out by 1444, while others were becoming a minority to Latvian (Latgalian) and Lithuanian):
800px-Baltic_Tribes_c_1200.svg.png
 
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I never said indulgences no longer exist

and keep in mind that Trent banned the sale of indulgences.

What do you think the word ‘ban‘ means. People that read your comment on Trent are gonna read it as you saying that the Council ended the sale of indulgences, which just isn‘t true, and I’ll gladly accept that that’s not what you meant, but if not you should phrase that differently, because as is you are misinforming people that might not kniw.

As for the fact that ’sending ducats’ doesn’t make sense; many of the charitable works like hospitals, orphanages etc. that would be funded through the sale of indulgences simply aren’t represented in the game, except for churches, which is why the abstraction of it being a monetary exchange is fine. It’s fine.
You could argue that it would be better if it instead gave base tax to the seller, and that would actually be a constructive suggestion instead of just aimlessly critizing a video game for being an abstraction of real life. So maybe try something like that, next time…
 
Hey @Pavia do you guys plan to touch perhaps Eastern Europe as well?, since it's in close proximity. Perhaps rework and expand missions for countries like Poland, Lithuania and Russia? If you can't tell right now it's ok.
They already confirmed that they won't be doing any rework or expanding missions for anything that isn't part of this expansion, being Scandinavian and Baltics.
For example, someone already asked about Novgorod and Russia and they said that no new missions or rework besides some small changes here and there, like the added Republican Tradition to the Russian NI, so that the Novgorod Great Veche Republic, which they also added, can be used as you transition to Russia, but nothing major.
 
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What do you think the word ‘ban‘ means. People that read your comment on Trent are gonna read it as you saying that the Council ended the sale of indulgences, which just isn‘t true, and I’ll gladly accept that that’s not what you meant, but if not you should phrase that differently, because as is you are misinforming people that might not kniw.

As for the fact that ’sending ducats’ doesn’t make sense; many of the charitable works like hospitals, orphanages etc. that would be funded through the sale of indulgences simply aren’t represented in the game, except for churches, which is why the abstraction of it being a monetary exchange is fine. It’s fine.
You could argue that it would be better if it instead gave base tax to the seller, and that would actually be a constructive suggestion instead of just aimlessly critizing a video game for being an abstraction of real life. So maybe try something like that, next time…
You could never licitly "sell" indulgences. Trent canceled all grants of indulgences involving any fees or other financial transactions(so in the colloquial sense of banning the sale of indulgences, it did). In other words you can't get indulgences for fiscal charity. Obviously indulgences still exist. Though mechanically if the main point is not the remission of venial sin (which frankly subjects wouldn't care about) but the financing of religious projects, that didn't cease (it was simply no longer tied to indulgences) and in effect the option should remain available. It's also unclear why this would be a Catholic specific mechanic in that case. If it actually involved the Pope raising funds to upgrade the cathedral monuments of Europe, like a ck crusade but as a financing campaign, then that'd be both a meaningful reflection of something distinct and accurate.

The Riga game mechanic doesn't seem to be clear on what it's supposed to reflect. There's some logic in allowing archbishopric type entities to use their own papal influence to help other states. But why does it give +stab? Stability presumably reflects the internal state of a realm. I could see papal influence. Prestige may be justified if financing a cathedral or something. But the normal indulgence mechanic doesn't grant stability or prestige, so why does it do so here? Since the interaction with Riga has cash go directly to the "state" of Riga instead of some specific noble end and also increases reform desire, it would seem to imply that the interaction is of the corrupt variety.

The regular interaction still shouldn't block excommunication, especially since the decision is unilateral in-game.
 
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The Riga game mechanic doesn't seem to be clear on what it's supposed to reflect. There's some logic in allowing archbishopric type entities to use their own papal influence to help other states. But why does it give +stab? Stability presumably reflects the internal state of a realm. I could see papal influence. Prestige may be justified if financing a cathedral or something. But the normal indulgence mechanic doesn't grant stability or prestige, so why does it do so here? Since the interaction with Riga has cash go directly to the "state" of Riga instead of some specific noble end and also increases reform desire, it would seem to imply that the interaction is of the corrupt variety.

The regular interaction still shouldn't block excommunication, especially since the decision is unilateral in-game.

I completely agree about the +stab making little sense. (It could make some sense if it represented the purchase of relics, which the text seems to imply might be included, but certainly the name doesn’t) Prestige, legitimacy, improved relations with Catholics and papal influence would all make sense to me. In fact, it might be really interesting if the ability was granted to more bishoprics it could offer a very interesting alternative way for nations that are not necessarily on great terms with the Papal States to still get influence in the Church by going through their local bishoprics instead. Which I would say certainly seems very historic to me.

I’ll also say that the reform desire added does suggest it’s certainly the corrupt variety.

And I also agree that the regular mechanic should not block excommunication, which is bad both from a historical perspective but also (and I’d argue, more importantly) game-play wise, as it completely undermines the excommunication mechanic, rendering it useless and unimportant. It should instead just give a big boost to relations with the Papal State, which would still de facto help prevent excommunication, without it being a magic ‘undo excommunication’-button.
 
They already confirmed that they won't be doing any rework or expanding missions for anything that isn't part of this expansion, being Scandinavian and Baltics.
For example, someone already asked about Novgorod and Russia and they said that no new missions or rework besides some small changes here and there, like the added Republican Tradition to the Russian NI, so that the Novgorod Great Veche Republic, which they also added, can be used as you transition to Russia, but nothing major.
Big thanks. I thought that they might touch little bit Eastern Europe since they're giving some atention to Estates and Government Reforms.
 
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Poking @SaintDaveUK about this, as it may be a good idea. :)
This would be incredibly cool to see extended as well, maybe using a country flag? Italy with different unit sprites depending on who formed it—and the same with Russia, Germany, even Spain—would be extremely cool. Now that NIs change when you form a new country (still a terrible design choice) there’s almost no way to preserve a sense of a country’s history post-unification. Prussian or German armies staffed by Teutonic Order sprites would be one way to bring your nation’s past along as it develops its path through the game.
 
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Two questions that are not really related to riga:
1. will danzig get missions (and do you get them when you flip into danzig from TO)
2. any chance the make the „tagfahrt“ event for Lübeck more reliable? Even if i have 90 rep. Trad. it seems to fire only for every 5th or 6th election that meet the requirements
 
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2. any chance the make the „tagfahrt“ event for Lübeck more reliable? Even if i have 90 rep. Trad. it seems to fire only for every 5th or 6th election that meet the requirements
You are lucky if you get it every 6th election. It can only happen when you get a new ruler(not when you reelect) and the chance is currently only 100/1100=9.09%
 
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This is very heartening, as this is my main concern about the state of the game. This update is looking phenomenal so far, so I hope a good middleground between the old and new systems can be found. I think you guys are hitting your stride now after the initial stumble, keep up the good work. :)

In terms of future reworks: will you consider updating the UI so that mods like "Bigger UI" are no longer necessary?
Thanks! We hope our work will continue to be appreciated by the community in the upcoming Dev Diaries. :)

We don't have plans at the moment regarding the UI, but we'll let you know if at some point we decide to improve it, for sure.
yes, indulgences were used to fund projects - what projects are being funded by Riga selling indulgences? and keep in mind that Trent banned the sale of indulgences. hence why the funding of projects was a way to get indulgences, because a straight money-for-indulgence swap would go against Church law. and this is why there was controversy from their sale in Germany, because they weren't supposed to be doing this. Riga selling indulgences, against church teaching, to countries makes absolutely no sense in my opinion, especially post-Counter-Reformation. the whole indulgence thing with the Papacy in-game makes no sense either
Well, one special type of indulgence was the Bull of the Crusade, which was quite popular in frontier regions such as the Iberian Peninsula, but also similar crusading indulgences were used in the Teutonic Reisen (yearly campaigns) in the second half of the 14th c.

So, coming back to gameplay, you could well do a run in which where, playing with Riga, you could have the Livonian and Teutonic Orders as subjects, and use the money gathered by selling indulgences to help them advance in their Crusading mission trees. And be aware that in the Livonian Order there are a couple of missions about building churches and cathedrals throughout their territory, which I think it's quite fitting with the purpose of indulgences. ;)
You could never licitly "sell" indulgences. Trent canceled all grants of indulgences involving any fees or other financial transactions(so in the colloquial sense of banning the sale of indulgences, it did). In other words you can't get indulgences for fiscal charity. Obviously indulgences still exist. Though mechanically if the main point is not the remission of venial sin (which frankly subjects wouldn't care about) but the financing of religious projects, that didn't cease (it was simply no longer tied to indulgences) and in effect the option should remain available. It's also unclear why this would be a Catholic specific mechanic in that case. If it actually involved the Pope raising funds to upgrade the cathedral monuments of Europe, like a ck crusade but as a financing campaign, then that'd be both a meaningful reflection of something distinct and accurate.

The Riga game mechanic doesn't seem to be clear on what it's supposed to reflect. There's some logic in allowing archbishopric type entities to use their own papal influence to help other states. But why does it give +stab? Stability presumably reflects the internal state of a realm. I could see papal influence. Prestige may be justified if financing a cathedral or something. But the normal indulgence mechanic doesn't grant stability or prestige, so why does it do so here? Since the interaction with Riga has cash go directly to the "state" of Riga instead of some specific noble end and also increases reform desire, it would seem to imply that the interaction is of the corrupt variety.

The regular interaction still shouldn't block excommunication, especially since the decision is unilateral in-game.
I completely agree about the +stab making little sense. (It could make some sense if it represented the purchase of relics, which the text seems to imply might be included, but certainly the name doesn’t) Prestige, legitimacy, improved relations with Catholics and papal influence would all make sense to me. In fact, it might be really interesting if the ability was granted to more bishoprics it could offer a very interesting alternative way for nations that are not necessarily on great terms with the Papal States to still get influence in the Church by going through their local bishoprics instead. Which I would say certainly seems very historic to me.

I’ll also say that the reform desire added does suggest it’s certainly the corrupt variety.

And I also agree that the regular mechanic should not block excommunication, which is bad both from a historical perspective but also (and I’d argue, more importantly) game-play wise, as it completely undermines the excommunication mechanic, rendering it useless and unimportant. It should instead just give a big boost to relations with the Papal State, which would still de facto help prevent excommunication, without it being a magic ‘undo excommunication’-button.
Take into account that the features we present in the DDs are still in development. So we will have a second thought on the modifiers gathered by buying indulgences to the Archbishop of Riga. ;)
That's not correct. The Livonians are Uralic people, closely related to Estonians and Finns, while Latgalians are Indo-European, basically Latvians and closely related to Lithuanians and Old Prussians. While Latvians (Latgalians) and Livonians are neighbours, they are not related at all. So, Livonians aren't represented in the game, but Latvians (as Latgalians) are, both as a tag and culture. But yeah, since there's no new provinces being added, it's impossible to add the Livonian culture to the game, because they only populated the coastline and some parts of the Daugava river, by this time Riga was a German city and is portrayed correctly in the game as such.

Uralic languages, including Livonian:
A closer look up to Baltic Finnic languages:

Baltic languages (some of them had most likely died out by 1444, while others were becoming a minority to Latvian (Latgalian) and Lithuanian):
You're correct. That said, we have to abstract to some degree the situation of the region; because of that, we went with 'Livonia' as a kind of secularized Prussia, covering the entire area, with Latgalia portraying a tag for the native Livonian and non-Germanic populations. We could have decided on a different approach, keeping Kurland as the main Germanic and secularized tag, and Livonia as the one for the native Livonians; but we thought it would make more sense the first option, as some kind of state development from the Livonian Confederation. Second thoughts on this decision are pretty welcomed, however, so if you have a different opinion on it, we may well read and consider it. :)
This would be incredibly cool to see extended as well, maybe using a country flag? Italy with different unit sprites depending on who formed it—and the same with Russia, Germany, even Spain—would be extremely cool. Now that NIs change when you form a new country (still a terrible design choice) there’s almost no way to preserve a sense of a country’s history post-unification. Prussian or German armies staffed by Teutonic Order sprites would be one way to bring your nation’s past along as it develops its path through the game.
This is a good question, and food for (our) thought.
Two questions that are not really related to riga:
1. will danzig get missions (and do you get them when you flip into danzig from TO)
2. any chance the make the „tagfahrt“ event for Lübeck more reliable? Even if i have 90 rep. Trad. it seems to fire only for every 5th or 6th election that meet the requirements
We do not plan on Danzig getting missions. On the other topic, we will take a look at that event, to see if it may be interesting to change the triggers, or not.
 
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I don't really know about selling indulgences, but the religion-propagating theocratic plutocracy would be a good fit for Cologne if they went Protestant.

On the other hand, I can't decide if it would be fitting or a massive meme to give Mainz Catholic Plutocracy. Mainz is based around an important trade city on the Rhine just like Cologne, and the Archbishop of Mainz was the "sponsor" of the indulgence seller that pissed Martin Luther off.
 
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You're correct. That said, we have to abstract to some degree the situation of the region; because of that, we went with 'Livonia' as a kind of secularized Prussia, covering the entire area, with Latgalia portraying a tag for the native Livonian and non-Germanic populations. We could have decided on a different approach, keeping Kurland as the main Germanic and secularized tag, and Livonia as the one for the native Livonians; but we thought it would make more sense the first option, as some kind of state development from the Livonian Confederation. Second thoughts on this decision are pretty welcomed, however, so if you have a different opinion on it, we may well read and consider it. :)

I may have missed a response to my reasoning on it, but I expanded (in either this or the previous DD) on how the developments from the Livonian Confederation should be treated not as countries of the natives, but as noble's republics, or oligarchies, or similar because most of the decisions affecting the land were taken by the German gentry (excepting those which were taken by the big cities, Riga and Reval).

In this case, Courland would be the representation of the Duchy of Courland which really existed (and which really should not be limited in numbers to how many provinces it can have when created) and had a colonial background while the ritterschafts which formed Estonia (Harrien, Jerwa, and Wierland) could be represented as the "Estonian" one and Tartu and the former Archbishop's nobility would have their own options. This approach would require at least one extra tag (Tartu could be subsumed under the Livonian ritterschaft as it formed a part of Polish Livonia, but Ösel should have their own 'tag' as their knightly institutions remained intact into the 20th century).

Trying to implement a tag which would reflect the "native" way of life (whether named Courland, Estonia, Livonia, or Latgallia) is anachronistic as they had no power to wield at this time (excepting, perhaps, as occasional burgers in some of the cities). I know it's not as "fun", but in reality what would we be able to say about an anachronistic native-led state in this time and period? Nothing... No historical modifiers, events, friends, or enemies...

If you are insistent that the "native" way of life should be reflected, it would be easier to look into implementing some specific events: but no major rebellions, excluding from ones at times of war such as in Harrien and Wiek in 1560, occurred then. Perhaps J Brotze could be brought up on his journeys to document the history and peasantry of the period (funded by the state for some modifiers?), but now we are already talking about the upper, Baltic German classes, who started to express an interest in their subjects—and we are in the late 18th century.

The only way that comes to mind which could be interpreted as a historical pathway into a native-led, or at least, native-dominated, state in this time and period would be to focus on Duke Magnus' failed Kingdom of Estonia, subject to Russia. The idea would be that a foreign power would help to set up a "puppet state", led by a foreigner, and in this state the old nobility would have to be wiped out (for supporting some other power) such that the power vacuum would have to be filled by native peoples. This would have to be led by a foreigner in order to guarantee the local nobility's hostility, much like Magnus' works in reality. Of course, his efforts ended well before this, but at least going down this path I could see a "Latgale" coming into existence after a long struggle.

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Conclusion:

Any tag in the modern Estonia and Latvia at this time should be Germanic because we don't have the evidence or a realistic historical pathway into an Estonian- or Livonian- or Latvian- or Couronian-led state. I think this approach could still be fun, and it could keep to slightly different gameplay tactics dependent on which way someone wanted to play: colonial Courland, land-based Livonia, Estonia, or Ösel. It might look that the last two don't have anything new to offer, *but* the differences could be in the style of government as Estonian nobility had a lot more freedom compared to the Livonian one (because they chose to swear fealty to the King of Sweden instead of being subjugated by force).

Ösel still stands out, but it would be a deserving option to give it a chance, perhaps as a weak colonial/maritime state with an eye on it's ability to close off the approaches to Riga by sea (i.e., how long Riga could survive on its own) and the historic attempts by the Swedish authorities to found a deep-water port to the SW of the island to replace Arensburg. In addition, while a Swedish property, there was plenty of mercantile activity and construction which took place here (but not really to its full potential), giving it perhaps some chances of early industrialization or similar.
 
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