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EU4 - Development Diary - 27th of February 2018

Good day all. Tuesday rolls around as it often does and we're back with another Dev Diary for Europa Universalis IV. Today we'll talk about 2 things: Improvements to the Naval AI and the new National Ideas of the various Irish Earldoms.

Firstly the AI. For this I will pass the mic to the living legend among AI programmers @Chaingun

#####

Hello, I am Chaingun aka. Skynet, although my real name is Petter (non-Swedes feel free to pronounce as Peter). Today’s dev diary will put the lens on what kind of new AI bugs (and occasionally WAD behavior) you may expect from the 1.25 update accompanying Rule Britannia.

The main [AI] focus of 1.25 has been to sort out the less than ideal naval behaviors. Some of you may have the perception that France transporting all their troops to an island in the Pacific is a recent thing, though in fact the AI’s logic has always permitted that to happen. It has been showcased far more frequently beginning when @Gnivom fixed overseas war declarations, due to the increased frequency of AI troops transport attempts overseas.

This overall situation is interesting because it highlights some of the many perplexities of game AI development, of which I would like to recap:

  • Fixing an issue can make the AI worse indirectly because of another latent issue, as the naval transport situation illustrates. Another example would be reducing the AI’s siege army sizes to reduce attrition when it doesn’t understand how to distribute cannons in their armies.
  • Fixing an issue can make the AI worse because we actually create another issue by breaking something.
  • A symptom often has multiple causes. An example is the famous sleeping army bug which is in very general terms can be explained as the AI getting into an external or internal state it cannot handle, resulting in all the commands it attempts (if any) being invalid.
  • A cause can have multiple symptoms that seem entirely disconnected or otherwise have very far-fetched causal dependencies. Ottomans falling behind massively in tech due to AI refusing to invade a rebel held island (due to having fewer transports than rebel regiments times a constant) would be an example.
Game AI programming is not a recommended job if you don’t like hearing how stupid you are on the forums forever afterwards not tweaking for their pet issue when working on a fixed time schedule. The line between bug and feature is thin indeed.

Returning to transport issues; in 1.25 the naval invasion AI is constrained from moving more than 50% of their troops “abroad”, where abroad is defined as a different landmass on a different continent, and army divisibility is not subject to said restriction (so if France does just have one army, it may be found in South America all the same). However, this is just the naval invasion logic… the land army AI may still decide to walk across Eurasia with all their armies for obscure reasons. It’s something I would like to rectify in the future if I get time for it.

Another big problem with the naval AI of previous patches is that it’s simply extremely slow in transporting troops. This issue turned out to be complex, and a number of sub-issues were identified and dealt with to various degrees:

  • There were several bugs where AI fleet and/or an army awaiting transport actually would be forever stuck until reload or even after.
  • The AI can now actually split a fleet if not all transports are required.
  • Sailors had been rebalanced to actually matter for some countries. Nobody had taught the AI this, resulting in many large countries having 0 sailors all the time, in turn leading to fleets spending most of their time in repair. As this was a surprise to me as well, and the issue is highly complicated to fix, the AI may now cheat on sailors by conjuring them out of thin air if they run out. This allows seamlessly working towards fixing the sailors handling without the naval AI being utterly handicapped in the meantime.
  • The AI’s transport fleet (of e.g. Spain) would often be found sailing around in Indonesia or some other far away place, taking years to respond to anywhere else. For Great Britain, this was even worse as the warships that were needed to defend against invasion partook in said expeditions. A fairly intense rework in how the structure their fleets has been made as detailed in the next paragraph.
Initially, when I set out to improve the AI’s fleet response times, I thought it would be a matter of having fleets based in appropriate ports around the world. Unfortunately, the AI (and neither do human players) have enough ships for this. Even the largest colonizers in the world can at most field a couple of hundred warships and transports. Splitting up warships lightly can therefore be disastrous.

The solution settled for has been to make the AI place the bulk of its warships into a Home fleet, which is forbidden from venturing far from the home coast, and does not contain any transports. Because it does not contain transports, it will never be busy transporting troops. This behavior is conservative, but conservative behavior is better for AI in practice. Europeans will not attempt to challenge Ming with a large fleet of heavy ships, they do however pose a token challenge to someone attempting to land troops on their shores.

So were these changes enough to make the AI a formidable force at sea then? Astute players may have noticed the AI barely built any ships whatsoever. During Christmas, the AI’s economy was tweaked to build far more warships, force limit buildings, and float less money. It was bloody perfect for a while with the Ottomans fielding 1.5 million men. Much later, new army maintenance costs came into the picture later as a surprise wrecking AI economic balance, so the 1.25 release may have regressed in this regard. Still, it should be better than it was on the naval front.

The implication of this rework on the whole makes the AI a bit more capable at naval stuff. Its micromanagement is still terrible, and skilled players will still be able to play “lure the fleet away” tactics to invade Great Britain with ease. Players using house rules or otherwise not exploiting AI behavior may however find some challenge in making naval invasions sometimes where previously they would not.

It’s worth some amount of extraposition explaining why the human player will always beat the AI as it’s coded in EU4. The crux is, the AI in Paradox games is using a fixed manual coded strategy. The extent to which is changes its behavior in response to what a human opponent does is limited to the exact tactics pre-programmed by the human author. Merely the fact the AI will not change is enough for the human to pick counter-strategies that are very effective against whatever the AI is doing, whereas they can not go into the same extreme degree of specialization against another human opponent.

Lastly, let me state I’ve been here since the Autumn on EU4 as a consultant (I was working with PDS full time until around 18 months ago), but I am being reassigned from EU4 to SECRETPROJECT, still at PDS, where I have freedom to create many new and wondrous AI bugs, or maybe even let the AI create the bugs itself, as any intelligent being would.

That’s all for now.

#####

Cheers Chaingun. Next up we'll look at New National Ideas for the Irish. Ireland is one of those places that could honestly be divided up but we are satisfied with the setup we have reached in 1.25. The following National Ideas have been either added or amended, with credit to @macd21 who made considerable contributions to these:
  • Leinster
  • Kildare
  • Clanricarde
  • Tyrone
  • Ulster
  • Maccarthy
  • Ormond
  • Faly
  • Tyrconnell
  • Repurposed group set for united Ireland
With this the entire Island's nations have their own unique National Ideas, with a formable Ireland having their own set. Let's pick 3 to look at: Meath, Kildare and Ireland

MTH_ideas = {
start = {
fort_maintenance_modifier = -0.2
global_garrison_growth = 0.25
}

bonus = {
leader_siege = 1
}

innefectual_overlords = {
global_tax_modifier = 0.10
"The English government in Dublin and their Irish Parliament puppets have been weakened as result of England's many conflicts in the Hundred Years War and the War of the Roses. Their influence no longer holds any sway over the true lords of Ireland, and now is the time to strike out for our independence."
}
foreign_nationals = {
diplomatic_reputation = 1
"In 1487, the Irish lord John de la Pole, Earl of Lincoln, invited a host from Burgundy to Dublin to support the crowning of Yorkist English pretender Lambert Simnel. Ireland would make for a fine base of resistant against the English mainland, and forever keep the would-be occupiers at bay. We may also one day gain powerful supporters, such as the Kingdom of Spain."
}
mth_parliament_of_ireland = {
stability_cost_modifier = -0.10
"When the English were expelled from Dublin, they left behind an institution called the Parliament of Ireland. Meant as an instrument to subjugate us, we will instead use it to organise our efforts to resist a return of English rule."
}
mth_englishtown = {
culture_conversion_cost = -0.15
"Once known as Irishtown and a ghetto for native Irish in Dublin, we have turned the tables. The district is now relegated to the Englishmen who remain, there being forced to integrate into the new order."
}
mth_the_cess = {
global_tax_modifier = 0.1
"The Cess is a special tax for the purpose of maintaining the extraordinary garrisons required to keep our towns safe. The people resent the tax, but understand its necessity."
}
mth_trinity_college = {
adm_tech_cost_modifier = -0.1
"Ireland lacks an institution of higher learning. A Catholic university in Dublin would put Ireland on the academic map."
}
mth_siege_mentality = {
defensiveness = 0.20
"The people of Dublin and Meath have had to endure many sieges through the years. We understand how to survive them and how to resist them."

KID_ideas = {
start = {
global_unrest = -1
defensiveness = 0.20
}

bonus = {
prestige = 1
}

kid_lords_of_ireland = {
diplomatic_reputation = 1
"Through strategic marriages and alliances with both Gaelic and Anglo-Irish families, the rulers of Kildare maintain a degree of influence throughout the island of Ireland unmatched by any of their rivals. Such is their power that successive English monarchs appointed them as their Lords Deputy over the island."
}
kid_ear_of_the_king = {
improve_relation_modifier = 0.2
"Despite repeatedly betraying the crown, the FitzGeralds of Kildare talk their way out of trouble, returning home with a pardon and a promotion."
}
kid_silken_finery = {
land_morale = 0.10
"When Thomas FitzGerald renounced his allegiance to the English king, he did so accompanied by his retinue of armoured gallowglasses, who were bedecked with silken fringes on their helmets. When Thomas wavered in his course of action, an Irish bard recited to him a poem, calling upon the Silken Lord to avenge his father’s death."
}
wizard_earl = {
technology_cost = -0.05
"The 11th Earl of Kildare spent many years abroad, studying and learning much of the world. When he returned home, he brought with him a keen interest in alchemy. Such was his knowledge that his neighbours referred to him as the wizard earl, for he was thought to have magical powers."
}
the_curragh = {
cavalry_power = 0.1
"The wide open plains of the Curragh have long been used as a gathering place for armed forces, but also make it a popular site for horse racing, and later, horse training."
}
kid_architects_of_nation = {
build_cost = -0.1
"The ancestral seat of the FitzGeralds at Carton House is grand, but our fortunes have improved of late. We have drawn up plans for an even grander residence, that could serve not only as a family seat but also as the Earl's court."
}
kid_royal_irish_army = {
global_manpower_modifier = 0.1
"The forces sent by the King of England to subdue the Irish can easily be repurposed by the Peerage. By simply offering better pay the Earldom of Kildare could command a sizable force of English soldiers."


irish_ideas = {
start = {
land_morale = 0.1
trade_efficiency = 0.1
}

bonus = {
legitimacy = 1
republican_tradition = 0.5
}

irish_endurance = {
shock_damage_received = -0.1
"Decades of disease and famine have mostly pushed the English invaders from our lands. Meanwhile, the Irish people grow all the stronger from their harrowing experiences. Yes, there is no stronger man on God's green earth than an Irishman!"
}
the_clanns = {
same_culture_advisor_cost = -0.2
"The Clanns of Ireland make up a strong political body for land and family management. In smaller families, the family elected chieftain is in charge of maintaining the family and protecting their lands. Land and leadership is passed through the family electorate system of Tanistry. From the royal clanns the symbolic high king of Ireland is elected, creating a bond of union between the Irish families."
}
more_than_irish = {
global_unrest = -2
"Heartily did the Norman invaders embrace the Irish traditions; so much so that it was said they put on the airs of being 'More Than Irish'. The very nature of our culture is contagious, and for centuries yet will men embrace our way of life."
}
loyal_catholics = {
papal_influence = 1
global_heretic_missionary_strength = 0.02
"While the English may toil and spin in the winds of the Reformation, the Irish people as a whole are determined to remain under the wing of their lord The Pope."
}
ire_abundant_harvests = {
global_trade_goods_size_modifier = 0.10
"Now that the greedy, neglectful English landlords have been driven out of Ireland, our farmers are finally able to manage their produce in peace. Blights and crop failures are addressed as matters of critical state importance rather than as peripheral concerns of an irrelevant colony."
}
unconquerable_ireland = {
war_exhaustion = -0.02
"No English lord could contain the will of the Irish for long. Despite all efforts, rebellion after rebellion sprouted in an attempt to displace English rule. Insurgency after insurgency will spring up in their path, and Ireland shall never truly be theirs. And, as they sail from our lands, we shall further influence resistance against the protestant imperialists to on our eastern flank."
}
ire_gallowglasses = {
discipline = 0.05
"Formerly loose mercenary bands, the Gallowglasses are being consolidated into a national army. Their institutional experience is almost unrivalled, and their septs are the perfect foundations for regiments."


And that's our lot for today. Well, if I don't add an image then the front page won't be happy, so here we go:

meathinks the time for change is uppon England.jpg


Next week we'll show off the new unit models and music which will both be included as part of Rule Britannia. See you then!

Don't miss today's Rule Britannia Feature Stream with DDRJake on our twitch channel at 15:00 CET - the stream will as usual be available on Youtube if you can't make the livestream
 
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I would like Brittany to be patched as a high colonial potential country on the same model as Portugal with 3 diplomats at start in 1444 with naval and commercial powers improved against France's overwhelming military strenght.... it is hard to survive when playing Britanny each time against France
Any basis for it or it's just what you want?
 
Romania, Scandinavia, Westphalia:
Romania was already a concept back then, forming it is just claiming a title
Scandinavia is a old concept as those countries are really related
Westphalia is a region and existed in real life

Scandinavia is a region with some common ethnic and cultural heritage but there was never "a Scandinavia" as a sovereign state. There was the Kalmar Union yes, but that was a personal union not a nation state. There was no dominant Scandinavian nationalism present in it, people still identified as Danish, Norwegian and Swedish.
Westphalia is just a region in Germany that has never had any desire of creating an independent state. The region even has a lot of historic, cultural, lingual, religious differences.

So including "formable nations" like those, of which some never even existed or are based on vague common heritage, I think it's only fair to include Belgium as well. The region that encompasses present day Belgium too has a common ethnic, cultural and historic heritage. Sure we speak both dutch and french but does that mean we should be part of France or the Netherlands purely based on language? If that's the case then Brazil should still be part of Portugal.

Belgium is as much an artificial state as many other 19th century states that emerged. I recommend you read The Invention of Tradition by the famous historian Eric Hobsbawn instead of jumping on the "Belgium is a fantasy state" -meme train.
 
Scandinavia is a region with some common ethnic and cultural heritage but there was never "a Scandinavia" as a sovereign state. There was the Kalmar Union yes, but that was a personal union not a nation state. There was no dominant Scandinavian nationalism present in it, people still identified as Danish, Norwegian and Swedish.
Westphalia is just a region in Germany that has never had any desire of creating an independent state. The region even has a lot of historic, cultural, lingual, religious differences.

So including "formable nations" like those, of which some never even existed or are based on vague common heritage, I think it's only fair to include Belgium as well. The region that encompasses present day Belgium too has a common ethnic, cultural and historic heritage. Sure we speak both dutch and french but does that mean we should be part of France or the Netherlands purely based on language? If that's the case then Brazil should still be part of Portugal.

Belgium is as much an artificial state as many other 19th century states that emerged. I recommend you read The Invention of Tradition by the famous historian Eric Hobsbawn instead of jumping on the "Belgium is a fantasy state" -meme train.
Are you saying that Flanders and Wallonia have more in common with each other than with their respective neighbours?
 
You could say the same about Portugal and the Netherlands had they never become great powers.
I don't agree. By 1444 Portugal had already proven herself to be a highly enterprising nation, and the Low Countries was likewise already a population centre at the mouth of the Rhine, arguably the most important geographical location in all of Europe in this timeframe, perhaps only after Constaninople.
 
Because I get some questions on PM like this and I don't want to reply several times:


Hi Petter,

I just read the last Dev Diary... (the question has nothing to do with that). And seeing you talking about AI behavior made a interesting question pop into my head.

I recently started studding machine learning and self learning ai. Nothing professional... just as a hobby. And I realized that a game like paradox would be perfect to implement such systems to develop the AI for the game, isn't?

So my question is... is this viable, if not why, and if it is... why not do it?

I think you guys could have a huge set of data if you collect what the players are doing. So basically you would take the data on how the players are playing the game and input that into a machine learning algorithm. Or create several self learning ai playing against each other with the goal of getting the highest score or something. Or a combination of both.

Wouldn't this work?

Thanks... I appreciate you taking your time to read this...

Hello,

typically, what we learn in deep learning courses is still supervised learning. It works for some sub-problems but is not sufficient for e.g. unit movement. If we always do what looks like the highest value action, the agent will not explore the world. Aside from this problem, we also have the temporal credit assignment problem which can be really complicated for gameplay.

Now some deep reinforcement learning algorithms do actually have an approach to solve these things... but they are currently unfeasible when they make necessary to input the full game state space. IIRC AlphaGo is relying on providing the explicit state representation of Go (which is very simple compared to PC strategy games).

Yet other approaches teach the agents to play with available screen information only, nonetheless building an in-memory representation of the game from that is very computationally intensive for a large game.

Now, there is hope of course, e.g. look at progress made by a German company (can't remember the name) to play Freeciv. In that case, they're deriving high level rules and operating on the existing game structure in code, AFAIK rather than attempting end to end (black box) modelling.

Yes, these games are probably interesting from a research point, the trouble is they keep changing under strict time pressure and it's not ideal to do research at Paradox for this and other reasons.
 
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I don't agree. By 1444 Portugal had already proven herself to be a highly enterprising nation, and the Low Countries was likewise already a population centre at the mouth of the Rhine, arguably the most important geographical location in all of Europe in this timeframe, perhaps only after Constaninople.
Hi.
Exactly.

Moreover Portugal " founded" culturally speaking Brazil and the Netherlands are a powerful business power in the actual global economy
 
Because I get some questions on PM like this and I don't want to reply several times:




Hello,

typically, what we learn in deep learning courses is still supervised learning. It works for some sub-problems but is not sufficient for e.g. unit movement. If we always do what looks like the highest value action, the agent will not explore the world. Aside from this problem, we also have the temporal credit assignment problem which can be really complicated for gameplay.

Now some deep reinforcement learning algorithms do actually have an approach to solve these things... but they are currently unfeasible when they make necessary to input the full game state space. IIRC AlphaGo is relying on providing the explicit state representation of Go (which is very simple compared to PC strategy games).

Yet other approaches teach the agents to play with available screen information only, nonetheless building an in-memory representation of the game from that is very computationally intensive for a large game.

Now, there is hope of course, e.g. look at progress made by a German company (can't remember the name) to play Freeciv. In that case, they're deriving high level rules and operating on the existing game structure in code, AFAIK rather than attempting end to end (black box) modelling.

Yes, these games are probably interesting from a research point, the trouble is they keep changing under strict time pressure and it's not ideal to do research at Paradox for this and other reasons.


That civilization AI which learns from the game manual was from research at MIT:

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...ivilization-by-reading-the-instruction-manual
 
I'm still waiting for the decision to form the Glorious Belgian Empire :/
 
The sailors cheating example is a good reason to be stingy with certain design elements. The sailors mechanic in general has not added a great deal to the gameplay experience since implementation, and bonuses to them are still routinely considered bottom tier ideas in most cases. However, as it was something that didn't even exist when AI for EU 4 was initially created it caused problems.

The list of stuff doing this kind of thing is long indeed. It's hard to fault AI much when design doesn't give it much of a chance and bug fixing priority is globally low on a consistent basis (the UI still routinely lies, and unlike AI this is not a complicated thing to observe or correct, considering you can at minimum simply edit the text to reflect the actual game state until the latter changes).
 
That civilization AI which learns from the game manual was from research at MIT:

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...ivilization-by-reading-the-instruction-manual

Nah, it's this one I was thinking of (Freeciv, not Civ): https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum/index.php?threads/to-the-ai-programmers.1069863/ unless I'm somehow confusing them

Interesting results from MIT nonetheless (I would have thought it impossible to transfer knowledge from manual into gameplay TBH before that)
 
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In some senses? Yes, they do.
In some senses they do, in some senses they don't. Culturally they look closer to their respective neighbours than to each other. It reminds me of Yugoslavia, cuturaly distinct countries glued together. (I know it's not exactly the same, though).

There is a saying by Jules Destrée (said to a Belgian king) "Sire ... you reign over two peoples. There are, in Belgium, Walloons and Flemings; there are no Belgians".