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Dev Diary #41 - Revolutions

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A glorious Thursday to you! Today we will finally get into details of what fate befalls the state that fails to deliver what its people demand - revolution!

Revolutions in Victoria 3 can be seen as a result of failure in the game’s economic and political core loops. When this happens it means you have failed to balance the material and ideological desires of the different segments of your population, resulting in one or several groups deciding to take matters in their own hands. The result is a tremendous upheaval which could go very wrong for you - but play your cards right, and there’s a chance you might bounce back from this crisis even stronger than before.

A design goal we have kept front and center is that outright armed uprisings should be rare but still feel threatening. There is a lot of foreshadowing and opportunity to course-correct or compensate if you want to avoid a revolution. Not all movements will actually be powerful or angry enough to pose a real threat to you, and if they aren’t, they won’t drag you into a pointless war with an obvious outcome but bide their time until they become relevant.

A revolution always starts with a Political Movement demanding some kind of change to the country’s Laws. The demand might be to enact something novel (perhaps Universal Suffrage or Workplace Safety), preserve something you’re about to change (maybe the Monarchy you’ve been trying to abolish), or restore something you used to have (Free Markets? Outlawed Dissent?). Any of these could end in a violent uprising if the movement is radical enough and you fail to meet its demands.

Political Movements have two major attributes to keep an eye on: their Support and their Radicalism. A movement’s Support affects how much help they would lend to enacting their desired change if you choose to go along with them, or how much resistance they put up in case of a movement to preserve a law you’re trying to change. It also determines how powerful a revolution they can muster, should it come down to that.

Meanwhile, Radicalism measures how likely they are to revolt if they don’t get their way. A movement with strong Support and high Radicalism is of course very dangerous. A movement with strong Support but low Radicalism can be a nuisance but is relatively harmless: they’ll work within the system, maybe raise a placard or two, but won’t take up arms. Finally, a movement with low Support but high Radicalism might not stand much of a chance to overthrow the government on their own, but the instability caused by their ideological fervor could be damaging to your country in the short-term and might even create geopolitical opportunities for your neighbors.

The movement to restore the Republic is not the most powerful one, but those who do support it care a great deal - and may even be willing to lay down their lives for it. It is supported by both the Armed Forces and the Intelligentsia - not the most likely of bedfellows typically, but united in this case for this particular cause.
DD41 01.png

A movement’s Radicalism originates from two sources: the number of Radicals among the Pops that support the movement, and the Clout of supporting Interest Groups with Approval low enough to be Angry. Since an Interest Group’s Approval originates both from the Laws of your country and also how Loyal vs Radical its supporters are, Radical Pops can potentially double their impact on a movement’s Radicalism. The major difference between these two factors is that when Pops act through their Interest Groups their impact is through Clout (the national share of their Political Strength) while direct Pop support makes a difference through sheer numbers. This means populist uprisings are possible even though the affected Pops don’t have any real representation in the halls of power, assuming they’re angry enough about their living conditions.

While a movement’s demands remain unmet, any Pops that belong to them will gradually gain Radicals. Once the Radicalism of a movement has exceeded a certain threshold it will begin organizing an armed uprising. You can monitor this progression in your outliner to see both how rapidly you’re moving along the road to revolution and how far you have already gone, both determined by Radicalism.

This means you can have a direct impact on revolutionary progression. Of course you can cave to the movement’s demands, which will placate them and eventually cause them to disband. But you can also address the problem by identifying the troublemakers and deal with them directly: either deradicalize them by improving their living conditions, or suppressing their contrarian ways by other means.

The ability to deal with insurgents by issuing Decrees to suppress Radicals can be a helpful tool in more authoritarian countries with concentrated populations, or where the insurgency is very localized. This is much more difficult in case of broadly supported populist movements in a large country.
DD41 02 v2.png

If you manage to get the movement’s Radicalism under control, you can make the revolution fizzle out on its own without giving an inch.

Another way of keeping revolutions in check is by establishing a Home Affairs Institution. By sinking Bureaucracy into Home Affairs you can more easily keep your troublesome elements in check, giving you more room to maneuver politically. As usual such an Institution can take several forms depending on what Law establishes it. A National Guard can require you to take more overt, proactive steps to keep law and order, while a Secret Police is able to operate more effectively in the background.

A minimal Home Affairs Institution under the Secret Police Law.
DD41 03.png

When radical movements are met with obstacles to their revolution for a long time, there’s an increasing chance that its revolutionary fervor burns out and the movement disbands.

But let’s say you don’t manage to placate or obstruct the political movement and the revolutionary progression boils over a required threshold. In this case an armed uprising will take a number of your states, proportional to the strength of the movement and localized roughly where its supporters are, to form a new revolutionary country. This country has the same technology as you but with some differences in laws, to reflect the ideological desires of the political movement’s leadership. Furthermore, the Interest Groups in this new country will become marginalized if they do not support the revolution, while the opposite is true in the loyalist part of the country.

Obviously, characters supporting revolutionary Interest Groups will join the revolution. This includes not only Interest Group leaders, but also those Generals and Admirals you may have carefully nurtured over many military campaigns and who may by now be in charge of most of your forces. Even if you win against them, they won’t be making it back to your country - alive, at least.

All other properties of this new country are dependent on the states they won over. If the revolution takes all your Barracks and Arms Industries, you might be in big trouble; if the revolutionary states consist mostly of Paper Mills and Art Academies, maybe you’re not so worried (until your Government Administrations start grinding to a halt and your aristocracy get mad about the lack of culture workers to patronize, that is). And of course, the loyalist part of the country retains all their hard-won diplomatic pacts and treaties, while the pretender has to start from scratch.

What follows is a Revolutionary [Diplomatic] Play where the stakes are very simple: the loyalist part of the country tries to crush the rebellion, while the revolutionary country tries to swarm the loyalists. Other countries with an Interest in the region can participate in this Play as usual. It is not uncommon for countries with good relations to the country before the revolution to support the loyalists in restoring order. It is also possible for a country whose government supports the ideals of the revolutionaries to back their side. As such, a revolution might not only result in you having to fight and kill your own people, but your nation might even become the ideological battleground of Great Powers.

A revolution in South Germany might prove a perfect opportunity for some old rivals to weaken each other and perhaps woo a potential Subject nation without having to take on any Infamy of their own.
DD41 04.png

If the prospect of winning against the revolutionaries doesn’t look good, like in all Diplomatic Plays you have the option of giving up. But rather than simply backing down and letting the revolutionaries have their way (which, to be frank, you could and should have done a long time ago if that was your intention), in Revolutionary Plays you only have an option to switch sides and take over the revolutionary part of the country in its fight against the loyalists. A daring player might decide to manufacture a powerful revolution on purpose in order to push some highly contentious laws through, though this strategy definitely straddles the line between brilliance and madness.

It’s important to note that there is no potential for a “white peace” in a revolution. Either side can capitulate, of course, but a peace cannot be signed without one party pressing their war goal and annexing the other side. By the end of the revolution, only one country will be left standing.

Needless to say, while all wars are expensive, civil wars are doubly so. A quick and decisive victory with minimal casualties is the best you can hope for - a long, drawn-out war amassing casualties and devastation on both sides might result in a country so broken it will take decades to rebuild. But once the war is over, the Interest Groups that lost the power struggle are defeated, for a time. Perhaps during this “golden age” you will have the opportunity to effect some much-needed political change and rise from the ashes?

Losing a revolutionary war means your country loses all its territory and Pops, in other words Game Over. This is something we’ve gone back and forth on during development, because while we do want you to be able to drastically transform your country through revolution, we don’t want to encourage you to just give up if things are looking bleak because resisting means a prolonged conflict leading to a more war-torn country in the end. So pick your side, but do it carefully! Should you end up losing after all, just like in any Game Over situation you can choose to continue playing as a different country, including the political faction that just took over yours. But to be clear, we still haven’t fully made our mind up on this and might well change our mind again! What do you think? Feel free to let us know in the comments!

Next week I’ll return with part two of civil wars: cultural secessions. Until then!
 
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osvaldopiazzolla

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I feel a coup should be a change of government (and 2-3 laws) against your will, only initiated when a powerful IG is unhappy and somewhere between "we can tolerate it for a bit" and "civil war it is" on the radicalism scale.

It just suddenly happening would obviously feel bad, so what about a warning message "risk of coup"

The player could defend with a good secret police and loyal military, and a failed coup gives the player a few options that allow to reduce the responsible factions power or reduce the risks of further coups.
I think that would work wonderfully for south america caudillismo. I'd argue that such an event would become likely in case the interest group that is pissed off is the army. Or especially with pissed off charismatic leaders.
 
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Interest groups that are unhappy, but not radically so, apply a negative modifier to the country such as Industrialists reducing the investment pool or Trade Unions reducing factory output, and they've teased events like strikes to make their pleasure known.

Aye, this works - I was thinking from a pop perspective rather than IG - but this kind-of-works with the IGs as representatives for the pops :)
 
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MfgLuckbot

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I think that would work wonderfully for south america caudillismo. I'd argue that such an event would become likely in case the interest group that is pissed off is the army. Or especially with pissed off charismatic leaders.
The military should obviously be the most likely IG to coup when angry. But there have been other examples as well, the coup that coined the german word "Putsch" for coup was basically a priest leading armed farmers into the citysquare of Zürich and demanding an end of the radical-liberal government (with success). In Game that would basically be a Devout+Rural Folk movement kicking the intelligentsia out of office by force over the demand to restore religious schools.
 
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Good DD. The mechanics for revolutions looks interesting.
 
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Wenla

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Have to ask:

Is there anything common with "revolution" and "independent war", or are those same thing under different topic?

If they aren't same thing, how those differs (game context)?
 
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Have to ask:

Is there anything common with "revolution" and "independent war", or are those same thing under different topic?

If they aren't same thing, how those differs (game context)?
independence wars are cultural secessions civil wars according to the dev posts in this thread. Use the "Show only dev responses" button at the top of this thread to see exactly what they said.
 
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An issue I have with revolutions leading to game over is that there a lot factors outside of player control. Warfare is largely automated so you might easily find in a unfavourable situation with no way to turn it around.

It can also to lead to frustration if there are bugs/poor AI (e.g I was counting on the AI to help me win the war but their armies are just sitting idle so I lost the war) or UI issues (e.g, the game did not comunicate clearly the strength of the rebels or the territory they would get now I am stuck on war I cannot win) .

There should be harsh penalties for losing a revolution, but maybe not as far as game over.
 
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An interesting thought, but the idea of an immediate game over for losing a war doesn't follow as neatly in the Vicky meta as it does in, say, HoI4. In HoI4 a single war will annihilate a nation as it was representing the all-or-nothing nature of that single conflict. Vicky follows the life of a nation through a turbulent time.

According to my reading of the DD a V3 revolution isn't like the V2 revolts which fundamentally rewrites your nation's laws into those of a political ideology: they just enforce the single law that they cared so much about. Everything about the nation otherwise remains intact, yet we are turning this into a do-or-die struggle for existence?

Under that same logic, why wouldn't we have any war that you lose be a game over? Well:
A) Your country, its people, and its way of life still exists (unless you just lost your last province), so it would be odd to consider that a game over when there is still plenty left for you to do.
B) Instant game overs of any type, in grand strategy games where you aren't the literal dynasty leaders, subverts the underlying idea that you are seeing this nation through its history, for better or for worse. In other words, it would be lame to end your game just because you lost a war.

From a mechanic standpoint: Given that diplomatic plays allows other great powers to get involved, you might prepare yourself and still lose your game, when in any other war where your enemies stack up on you will likely take a pummeling, but you get to keep going to fight another day.

In short: it seems too harsh an outcome for a situation which doesn't fundamentally destroy your nation, doesn't follow with the spirit of sticking it at through thick and thin, and will reward (perhaps even mandate) players trying to cheese the game by making an otherwise important/shaping event of your nation a game over if they don't win.
Aside: losing the war in HoI4 doesn't necessarily end the game. I once started as Fascist Italy, didn't join Axis then got defeated by Allies. Peace Conference results: Italy flipped to Democracy. I was still playing as Italy, was immediately pulled into the war on Axis and was pumping out units from scratch while the Allies bought me time. If the player starts in a Democracy, they have the option to play as a government in exile.

Back to Vic3: A game over when you lose a revolutionary war is little different to a game over from losing your last province because you were an OPM who started the war - both are high stakes, high reward plays. When you're a big blobbed out nation, a single war is much less consequential so rightly shouldn't result in a game over. I disagree with your reading of the DD that the consequence of the rebels winning the revolutionary war to be so trivial - Interest Groups will have shifted in power, opening up the path for a lot more legal changes in quick succession.

You speak of rewarding "players trying to cheese the game" as undesirable. Could you elaborate on what you mean by 'cheese' in this case? To me, not giving a game over is how you open the door to cheesing the game by letting an undercooked revolution still win by deliberately playing badly so you get the benefit of the revolution for less effort. Yes, other nations can get involved in your country's revolution making it harder to engineer the desirable outcome. I consider that to be part of the game's skill requirement - track international diplomacy (and market conditions) then time your revolution when it's favourable for your objective (be it crushing it or tag switching).

I agree that the spirit of immersion ("you are playing as the spirit of a nation, through thick and thin") is not being prioritised by giving a game over from losing a revolution war. It's part of the trade offs being made to produce a game - historic accuracy and immersion are second priority to gameplay feel. Now, what happens after that "game over"? You can switch tags, regardless so you can still play as the same nation that just finished a revolutionary war. Presumably continuing to play would disqualify the game from Ironman but that's it - player pride is wounded but you can do exactly what you want: dust off your battered nation and continue overseeing it.
 
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That exact civil war. The "Republic of China" still exists on Taiwan despite the civil war ending. Although that is the only example I can think off.
who cares about the examples. the point is that a revolution and later civil war should be able to result in two different states over the same territory.
The examples mentioned, Korea and Taiwan, exist in a situation where nuclear weapons prevent the conclusion of the war. People love putting Taiwan situations in their alternate history, but such a situation is exceptional and is very unlikely in a pre-nuclear era.
 
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Is there a possibility for "double-dip revolutions"? Think February Revolution and October Revolution, or German Revolution and Spartacist Uprising. Different interest groups under the same political movement successfully pull out a revolution, but a few months later, the winners - who had no common ground other than fighting the previous status quo - fight it out among themselves to see who comes out on top.
And expanding on this excellent question, if there are "double-dip revolutions", what factors make such revolutions more likely?
 
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MfgLuckbot

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The examples mentioned, Korea and Taiwan, exist in a situation where nuclear weapons prevent the conclusion of the war. People love putting Taiwan situations in their alternate history, but such a situation is exceptional and is very unlikely in a pre-nuclear era.
Stalemates aren't impossible though. But I guess they wouldn't end in a split nation if they happened in the victorian era, but rather in a negotiated peace because both parties rather see their country being ruled "the wrong way" than allow it to bleed out completely.

Revolutions of early to mid 19th century were a constant back and forth, revolutionary side making gains, loyalist side signaling they are ready to make concessions, but then pushing in the opposite direction once the revolution lost their upper hand. Mechanically the negotiated peace could be hard to implement, as the main demand is one law change, wich can't be broken down to some compromise in every case.
And expanding on this excellent question, if there are "double-dip revolutions", what factors make such revolutions more likely?
Revolutions are likely when there are a lot of radicals. When two IGs do a revolution together and win their members will become less radical (they got what they wanted) and loyalist factions are marginalized in the new government. But unhappy pops from bad SoL will remain, and new ones could radicalize when they are disadvanted in the new system. So I guess that means the situations that breed follow-up revolutions are when the economic situation is bad enough to have people still radical after one desire was fulfilled, or when the new system disadvantages someone who was okay with the old system but not formally in power before.
 
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Will revolution mechanics encompass anarchist movements and the many assassinations/dispute they caused during the time period covered by Vic3? They seem like they'd fit as a low Support, high Radicalism group, but one that probably wouldn't have a goal to trigger a civil war?

Similarly, are labor disputes (strikes, union formation and uprisings) common during this time period also represented by the revolution mechanic?
 
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Does the name change depending on the style of revolt? For instance, if monarchists revolt to restore the King to my now liberal republic, would the revolting country still be called Revolutionary Country? Or would it have a dynamic name such as Reactionary Country?
 
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Another sort of revolutionary chain to consider modelling is liberal > radical > conservative backlash. I think a journal entry following a succcessful revolution would be a good way to model the need to balance competing power bases in the aftermath of doing away with the previous order.
 
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Will revolution mechanics encompass anarchist movements and the many assassinations/dispute they caused during the time period covered by Vic3? They seem like they'd fit as a low Support, high Radicalism group, but one that probably wouldn't have a goal to trigger a civil war?

Similarly, are labor disputes (strikes, union formation and uprisings) common during this time period also represented by the revolution mechanic?

If you check the dev responses to this thread you will see they talked about those happening as event chains, triggered by radicalism (well a general strike is a journal entry, so more than an event chain). The revolution mechanic only kicks in once radicalism has gotten so far there is no simple route back.

If you ignore the strikes, the protests and the occasional assassinations (or worse - clamp down on them) then the radicals will be left with the choice of giving up or going all in for glorious revolution!
 
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Will revolutions spread to other countries?

I mean, as it happened mainly in 1848.
I'd really like to know as well. One of the most important diplomatic matters of the 19th century was Austria, Prussia and Russia working together to repress revolutionary sentiment in order to stop the spread to their own contries.
 
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I'd really like to know as well. One of the most important diplomatic matters of the 19th century was Austria, Prussia and Russia working together to repress revolutionary sentiment in order to stop the spread to their own contries.
Perhaps a mechanic where active revolutions contribute to a ticking meter in a Journal Entry that activates a broader set of revolutions like the 1848 Revolutions would work here. As the first revolution kicks off, it gives positive modifiers to surrounding countries' movements for Radicalism (but not Support, you can't increase support for an idea just because your neighbors like the idea but people can increase the risks they want to take if they see many others taking that risk). If Europe is a tinderbox like it was as 1848 started, the first revolution will kick off a wave of revolts. It is up to the counter-revolutionary nations to counter these revolutions if only for the limited narrow purposes of stability.

This could model the fact that even liberal nations (like Britain) don't like revolutionary zeal because it introduces too much chaos or unpredictability both in their domestic and foreign politics. Liberal nations have an incentive to suppress revolutions or at least not support them to preserve the existing political order that may be a great existing benefit to it.
 
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I'm a little mixed on game-over after failed revolution.

On one hand a revolution should be a massive "make it or break it" moment, but on the other, I think an outright game over is a little harsh. (+ it prevents opportunities for what could be interesting gameplay situations like a revolt splitting the country in two and the end result being two rival nations that are at peace but could potentially go to war again in the future, or a revolution requiring several small revolts, or situations where you lose the battle (Revolution is crushed) but win the war. (destabilization results in the country later flipping a few years down the line.))

Maybe it should depend on the type of revolution. Small reactionary political movements could have less "Risk" and being crushed simply results in you continuing as the main nation again, (But still benefitting or suffering drawbacks. You should have a cooldown before you can try again though) but massive country-splitting civil wars result in a game over if conquered.
 
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