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CK2 Dev Diary #59: Publishing CK2

Hi everyone! I’m Gustav “Gruffa” Groth, Product Manager on CK2. First, a disclaimer: This is not your regular dev diary as I’m not a developer, I work in publishing. However, as most of the dev team is on vacation, I’ll do my best to fill the gap. :)

I won’t reveal any changes to the game in this dev diary, because I think that’s best explained by the devs themselves. Instead, I’ll try to give you some insight into what the publishing side of Paradox does for CK2.

I officially took over the Product Manager role shortly after we released Monks & Mystics. I’d been standing in for the previous PM during the expansion release, and I’m a big fan of the game (current campaign: Zunbil, 769 start, HIP mod) so I couldn’t be happier to work with it! So here I am.

As Product Manager, I’m ultimately responsible for making sure that we provide our fans with the best CK2 products possible. This wouldn’t be possible without the hard work of a number of people from different departments at Paradox. I thought the best way to explain how all us publishing folks contribute, I’d walk you through a somewhat simplified version of the publishing process. This process can vary from project to project, depending on its size (whole game or DLC). The one described below is specific to CK2 expansions.

The core decision-making point for a product at the publishing wing is the Product Team. It meets bi-weekly and consists of the Game Director, Project Lead, Product Marketing Manager and myself, the PM. This is where the initial decision on whether or not to start development of the next expansion is made.

Three things are needed for an expansion (and associated updates) to happen; a design, a dev team and a profitable business case. Without all of these factors in place, development would cease. Luckily for CK2 and its fans, there’s been no shortage in any of them for more than five years!

If the Game Director (Doomdark) is confident in their design, we begin to investigate the potential business case. First, we evaluate whether or not the proposed expansion is something that will be appreciated by you guys, the players. While I trust the judgment of DoomDark and the dev team, I make sure to take time to read your feedback on the forum and elsewhere. As for playing the game myself, that solves itself since it’s something I happily do on my free time. In addition to our own experiences and your feedback, we also use additional analytics tools, provided by our very talented analytics team! These tools help us understand player behavior, and see statistics on start dates, mod usage and many other useful metrics.

When we all think that this expansion is something that you guys would like, the Project Lead (Anona) makes an estimate of the work needed to make it reality. This helps PDS evaluate whether or not the needed staff is available and it’s also used by me to calculate development costs.

The next step is to evaluate the business case. There’s more to this than just having projected revenues be higher than costs. Could the staff at both PDS and Publishing be put to work more efficiently elsewhere? Is the timing right? Does the expected release date coincide with other product releases? The latter situation can be both detrimental and beneficial, but I won’t go deeper into detail about that.

If we decide that the business case is sound, I make sure that I have an approved budget from management and to everyone’s joy, development can start!

This is where the fun begins! That is to say, for everyone else. During the first months of development is usually when I have the least to do, other than follow up on issues brought up during Product Team meetings. Me being the “suit”, my way of helping is usually increasing the budget, pushing the release date, or both.

During this early stage of development, marketing starts planning their efforts. There’s a lot that goes into this; there’s advertising, planning events, social media presence, trailer production, setting up store pages on Steam and Paradox Plaza, producing streams, negotiating promotion deals with retailers and much much more. Suffice to say our marketing department is a big (but lean) machine consisting of people with a large variety of skillsets, coupled with a passion for the games we make. Today, Crusader Kings is an old and well established brand, so marketing can manage most things on their own without input from the rest of the product team. Although some things will always require input from all parties involved, such as expansion name and trailer script.

During the middle months, there’s lots of communication between departments, prioritization and handling of issues and opportunities as they come up, all the while keeping a close eye on budget and your discussions and impressions of dev diaries.

As we close in on a release-ready build, marketing efforts ramp up. This is a hectic time for everyone involved, as the dev team puts their best effort in killing bugs, marketing activities happen almost daily and planning for the next expansion begins in earnest. On release day, all involved hands are on deck here on the publishing floor to ensure everything goes smooth. I can’t do much myself but nervously monitor player feedback and sales figures.

After release, while the dev team is working on hotfixes and patches, we do follow-up. We give feedback to each other on what went well… and not so well. I prepare a short report on the sales and player numbers which is presented to the entire company at our next Monthly News session in the kitchen. There we also share what we learned from the project to the next organization, so we don’t make (too many of) the same mistakes again.

So, that was a short summary of the CK2 expansion publishing process. I hope it was somewhat interesting to get a look at how we do things in publishing, and that it was an alright substitute for the regular dev diaries. I thought I’d leave you with a fun fact: CK2 set a new record number of Monthly Active Users (MAU) with the release of Monks & Mystics, the all time high happening on March 19th. Not bad for 5+ year old game! We’re lucky to have such passionate and dedicated fans!

I’ll stay around in the thread to answer as many questions as possible, or just to chat with you guys!
//Gustav
 
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Thank you for the insight, I really appreciate to discover different parts of the work around CK2 in these estival development diaries!
 
Does the perceived success or failure of the individual expansions help you to evaluate the direction of future content? Or are the features of new expansions left totally in the hands of the devs?

For example, one expansion that saw a good deal of negative feedback (rightly or wrongly) was Conclave. While the sales of Conclave itself were probably fine, I get the impression some people either regretted their purchase or would not purchase a similarly-toned/themed/balanced expansion in the future. Would it be your job to look at the community's feedback and thereby shift the focus of development?
 
How much cash you make in a year?

If you mean Paradox as a company, according to their last financial statement, they had a total revenue of 68 million euros, operational costs (salaries, investments, etc) of around 36 million euros, Taxes (Corporate/Income/Sales/Amortization/etc) of around 7 million euros, leaving them with a tidy net profit of 68-36-7= Around 25 million euros.

If you're asking about how much Gruffa makes per year as Product Manager, only he can tell you that. However, Glassdoor.com states that Project Managers in Sweden get paid on average roughly 45000 euros per year.
 
How much do you take into account user surveys and gauge where player interest is when you decide what product to make? Do you use any statistics?
Does the perceived success or failure of the individual expansions help you to evaluate the direction of future content? Or are the features of new expansions left totally in the hands of the devs?

For example, one expansion that saw a good deal of negative feedback (rightly or wrongly) was Conclave. While the sales of Conclave itself were probably fine, I get the impression some people either regretted their purchase or would not purchase a similarly-toned/themed/balanced expansion in the future. Would it be your job to look at the community's feedback and thereby shift the focus of development?

I'll answer both of these questions in one go.

The short answer:
We use all of these inputs, from player feedback to revenue to player data to our own gut feeling.

The long answer:
I mostly find that we act data-informed at Paradox, rather than data-driven. That is - we use our gut feeling to come up with ideas that we think would be fun and appreciated by the players. These ideas should ideally be phrased like hypotheses and could be anything from "This is a good theme for the DLC" to "This is a good marketing approach"

We then use data to validate our hypotheses. Data can come in many different shapes and forms. There's survey results, user reviews, comments on the forum, player behavior data, revenue figures etc. These data sources serve different purposes. Quantitative data usually comes in handy when trying to find what our players are doing, or what they like. Qualitative data help us understand why players act in certain ways or like certain things. It's up to everyone to use the data available to them.

Ultimately, we always aim to create products that we think you'll find fun and worth your time and money, because that's a win for everyone.
 
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It was a very interesting read!

As estimating revenues, costs et. c. for expansions is part of your job, do you have a rough estimate about how much would cost the major mods for CK2 if they were paid?
 
Good question! We have an ongoing discussion about such things in the product team as well, as the aesthetic additions become parts of the product we sell. We sort of agree on what type and amount of aesthetic additions we think makes sense, and the dev team gets creative from there. What the additions ultimately become is left up to them, as they know the game best.
Regarding the aesthetic DLC...do you know that quite a few people love them, and get very confused and anxious because they are promoted only a few days before the release?

(not really a serious question, but would really like to know why don't we get much info about them) :p
 
What have been the team's biggest surprise successes and biggest surprise failures? As in, what was something you were either really excited about that fell short of sales expectations, or something you were only marginally comfortable publishing that turned out to sell much better than you ever imagined?
 
What have been the team's biggest surprise successes and biggest surprise failures? As in, what was something you were either really excited about that fell short of sales expectations, or something you were only marginally comfortable publishing that turned out to sell much better than you ever imagined?

They probably didn't expect people to bitch about Aztecs and India years after they were released.
 
Thank you for this look at the business side of Paradox publishing.

The next step is to evaluate the business case. There’s more to this than just having projected revenues be higher than costs. Could the staff at both PDS and Publishing be put to work more efficiently elsewhere?

I think of this when fans argue that Victoria 2 was "profitable". Sadly, not profitable enough to justify continued development. That is, considering how much CK2 and EU4 DLC has sold.

Is the timing right? Does the expected release date coincide with other product releases? The latter situation can be both detrimental and beneficial, but I won’t go deeper into detail about that.

What was behind the decision to release Stellaris (09 May 2016) and HoI4 (06 June 2016) so close together?
 
It was a very interesting read!

As estimating revenues, costs et. c. for expansions is part of your job, do you have a rough estimate about how much would cost the major mods for CK2 if they were paid?

I'm not sure if you're asking for the cost of development of such a mod, or what I think the price of them should be. To calculate development cost you would need to take into account the number of people working on the mod, and then the cost of each person's time, which can vary wildly between countries or even cities. (Roughly: Total dev cost = monthly cost of developer x months x team size) I can't share what estimated costs we have at PDX, but using that formula you can make a guess yourself.

Both pricing and evaluating the business case becomes a bit trickier still as these mods are under development for a long time. Would you pay once and then expect updates to keep coming in forever, or pay for each update?

Overall, I'm very happy that we have mods that add a bunch of great content to our games. There's certainly a lot of effort behind them. As stated in my original post, I'm currently playing with the HIP mod, and it's great!
 
Regarding the aesthetic DLC...do you know that quite a few people love them, and get very confused and anxious because they are promoted only a few days before the release?

(not really a serious question, but would really like to know why don't we get much info about them) :p

This is great feedback! I'll bring this up to the product team and find out if there's a way we can communicate the inclusion of Aesthetic DLC at an earlier stage in our marketing timeline.

What have been the team's biggest surprise successes and biggest surprise failures? As in, what was something you were either really excited about that fell short of sales expectations, or something you were only marginally comfortable publishing that turned out to sell much better than you ever imagined?

This is a question that's probably better answered by someone who's been around the project longer than I have. From my perspective, I still haven't fully grasped that CK2's active player base keeps growing, after 5 years! Therefore I've underestimated revenues for the game a number of times already in my short time as Product Manager.
 
This is great feedback! I'll bring this up to the product team and find out if there's a way we can communicate the inclusion of Aesthetic DLC at an earlier stage in our marketing timeline.
Awesome, thanks!
 
Could you please give a bit more input on how you analize data? For exemple, it is regularly argued on the forum that some starting positions (characters, or start dates), are not used because they lack interest/features (rather than not being interesting if fully fletched). This might not be the best exemple to convey the idea but I could be interested in playing a republic in CK2 but the lack of competition (inside: AI patricians do not invest in elections and are bad at expanding with trade posts and outside: too few AI republics, and no mechanic to replace the ones that are annexed) make that I only made one actual republic playthrough. It doesn't even mean I don't like the DLC as I still like toying withrepublics, and moded in more for more competitive AI lieges (more wealth) and some more fun and diverse playthough with embargo wars when I play feudal.

Anyway, the diary was an interesting read.
 
Cheers for the DD Gruffa, interesting stuff, thanks for taking the time and effort to share :D. May your dev teams continue to have compelling ideas and business cases for many years to come :).
 
How is the price point of the DLC decided? Is it something with which you start with (as in our next DLC is going to cost x and hence we have to include so much levels of content) or is it something you decide after the DLC is envisioned and you see how much content it has?
 
How is the price point of the DLC decided? Is it something with which you start with (as in our next DLC is going to cost x and hence we have to include so much levels of content) or is it something you decide after the DLC is envisioned and you see how much content it has?

Price follows design, and not the other way around. We have a general idea for what the price is going to be from the outset, so the devs don't go about designing an expansion that would need to be priced at $100. The official price point decision is made during development when we have a good idea of what the final product is going to be.