even so, there were attempts to up-gun and figure out what would be needed. having something akin to "soft attack, hard attack, and piercing" for own tank is reasonable in game terms; armies tested their guns and how well their own armor performed.
AI is both predictable and poorly scripted.what they lacked was knowing what exactly the enemy would do, as you say. we can only say "you don't need more than x piercing" in hoi 4 because the ai is predictable. this is a fault of ai scripting, not how the mechanic itself is implemented (although the latter could be improved; right now, failure to pen armor is something people mostly don't worry about even in mp).
But pre-WW2 it was normal to get enemy equipment and test it out.
USSR bought German tanks and used their stats to measure how well their AT would perform. It also used captured Polish, German and French tanks from a repair shop in 1939 for testing purposes.
Poland tested British Vickers 6-ton tanks.
UK tested Lt. vz. 35 & TNH tanks before WW2.
Nobody really knew what tank development would end up in, at the end of the day, but there was generally little surprise in what was being observed on the battlefield. Because we have hindsight, we generally know that WW2 ended up in everyone using medium tanks.
On the other end, if you know what everyone did in WW2, you could optimize your army for that.
For example, USSR knew that German artillery is based around howitzers for soft attack and 37mm AT for hard attack. So they pushed for T-34 tanks, that were moderately armored all-round, and could ignore 37mm fire.
Germany on the other end, knew that Soviet artillery is based around mostly field cannons (that can double as AT). So they pushed for tanks with maximum frontal armor and reduced side armor: as they knew, they can't negate most enemy fire all-round anyways.
I would personally argue that there should be a "Rock-paper-scissors" situation. Where medium tanks>heavy tanks (mediums can mount a big enough gun to penetrate heavies), heavies>lights (heavies can mount thick enough armor to be invincible to light tanks), lights>mediums (as lights can mount a big enough gun to penetrate mediums) from an economics standpoint.
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