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Werewolf LXXXIV: Aces of the Pacific

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Vote Elvis!

no, wait

Vote the_hdk

because the Loch Ness monster is a bonny wee chap who wouldn't lie, and likes kittens
 
h97493.jpg
 
They sure don't make 'em like they used to. :rofl:

Vote randakar.

Because he posted recently. Other than that, THE_SPLIT has me questioning my will to live. Who suggested a mass suicide?

Unvote randakar, vote dublish.
 
Calamity said:
It means you're less likely to be a cannibal yes, but all that means is you're less likely to be a cannibal than a different sort of baddie. My working out:

(All of this is assuming that you didn't know Jester was a wolf beforehand, the jester switch seemed far more like a semi-random switch to a good lynch target due to his inactivity rather than a : "JL ANOUNCEMENT: Jester is a wolf for sure!" type thing.)

Scenario A: You're a Goodie: You picked a target from the selection available, you chose Jester for whatever reason.

Scenario B: You're a Baddie: You picked a target from the selection available, which presumably didn't include your own pack but would of included any wolves if you started unaligned and haven't made contact, or any wolves not in your pack if you're in one.

So you're less likely to be a cannibal, but a non-cannibal baddie is just as likely to of gone with Jester as a choice as a goodie... Hence it not factoring into my thinking.

Apologies if I haven't explained this well, I tend to think in pictures rather than words, and without drawing you guys a graph its somewhat hard to translate sometimes... :eek:o
Click to expand...

Ok I understand what you are saying. Here is my version:

Assumptions:

1/3 of the people were bad at the start = 10
There are 2 packs
To make it easy we will say there is a Sorc and a Sorc apprentice which makes 8 baddies split among two packs = 4 each

If I cannot be a Cannibal (which is possible, but extremely unlikely) there is only a 6/30 chance I started as a baddie, while someone we know nothing about has a 10/30 chance of being a baddie.

**I pulled those numbers out of my rear-section but I would imagine they are close enough to the truth for this example to have meaning.
 
snoopdogg said:
Hax, even though you're dead, you're still dangerous. But you can be my wingman anytime. My creepy zombie wingman.

Well, this day was shite. How about we kill off everyone but me in a great big tie! Village wins!
Click to expand...

Could we kill no one but you?
 
snoopdogg said:
But then the village loses. And you don't the glory of the biggest tie in WW history! I think you all know it's the right thing to do.
Click to expand...

I don't want anyone breaking the record that was set during my big game

Vote snoopdogg

as placeholder

Edit: Invalid vote, but I'll be a good boy and not edit it out
 
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Vote snoopdogg

I've always wanted to kill a dog for dinner, maybe now's the perfect time?
 
Official vote count, 14h 30min to deadline

the_hdk - 3 - Kriszo, von Loch Ness, walrus
OrangeYoshi - 2 - trespoe, Tornadoli
Ciryandor - 2 - randakar, snoopdogg
von Loch Ness - 1 - The Arch Mede
sbr - 1 - Yakman
dublish - 1 - dublish
snoopdogg - 1 - Ciryandor

not voted - 13 - muttoneer, the_hdk, AOK.11, jonti-h, sbr, dublish, Jopi, Rysz, Raczynski, jacob-Lundgren, marty99, OrangeYoshi, Calamity

Missed one vote - marty99, von Loch Ness
Absent Saturday - Kriszo

EDIT: fixed the two Cirys
 
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Ouch. Last night reeks of phail, though my socks reek a damn sight worse after a few weeks sweating away in this hellhole.

von Loch Ness said:
OK then, I have incontrovertible evidence that HDK is a baddie and that Elvis was, in fact, an alien.

vote HDK
Click to expand...

Incontrovertible evidence? Pray tell - this could have an important bearing on everything we do here.

I mean, Elvis. Strewth.
 
Vote Count Summary

Day 2


21h 28min to deadline

snoopdogg - 2 - Kriszo, Yakman
EUROO7 - 1 - Rysz
Rysz - 1 - Calamity


12h to deadline

snoopdogg - 2 - Kriszo, Yakman
EUROO7 - 2 - Rysz, Raczynski
Rysz - 1 - Calamity
The Arch Mede - 1 - snoopdogg
Raczynski - 1 - walrus
rexodia48 - 1 - trespoe
Hax - 1 - dublish
sbr - 1 - Ciryandor
Ciryandor - 1 - Paendrag
Yakman - 1 - randakar


3h 4min to deadline

EUROO7 - 4 - Rysz, Raczynski, The Arch Mede, dublish
rexodia48 - 3 - trespoe, the_hdk, jonti-h
snoopdogg - 2 - Kriszo, Yakman
Rysz - 2 - Calamity, sbr
The Arch Mede - 1 - snoopdogg
Raczynski - 1 - walrus
sbr - 1 - Ciryandor
Ciryandor - 1 - Paendrag
Yakman - 1 - randakar
jonti-h - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
muttoneer - 1 - Jester180
walrus - 1 - Tornadoli


2h to deadline

rexodia48 - 4 - trespoe, the_hdk, jonti-h, Rysz,
EUROO7 - 4 - Raczynski, dublish, The Arch Mede, OrangeYoshi
Rysz - 3 - Calamity, sbr, EUROO7
snoopdogg - 3 - Kriszo, Yakman, Hax
The Arch Mede - 1 - snoopdogg
Raczynski - 1 - walrus
Hax - 1 -
sbr - 1 - Ciryandor
Ciryandor - 1 - Paendrag
Yakman - 1 - randakar
jonti-h - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
muttoneer - 1 - Jester180
walrus - 1 - Tornadoli


1h 4min to deadline

rexodia48 - 5 - trespoe, the_hdk, jonti-h, Rysz, walrus
EUROO7 - 4 - Raczynski, dublish, The Arch Mede, OrangeYoshi
snoopdogg - 4 - Kriszo, Yakman, Hax, Calamity
Rysz - 3 - sbr, EUROO7, Tornadoli
The Arch Mede - 1 - snoopdogg
sbr - 1 - Ciryandor
Ciryandor - 1 - Paendrag
Yakman - 1 - randakar
jonti-h - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
muttoneer - 1 - Jester180
walrus - 1 - Jopi


12min to deadline

rexodia48 - 5 - trespoe, the_hdk, Rysz, walrus, EUROO7
snoopdogg - 5 - Kriszo, Yakman, Hax, Calamity, jonti-h
EUROO7 - 4 - Raczynski, dublish, The Arch Mede, OrangeYoshi
Rysz - 2 - sbr, Tornadoli
The Arch Mede - 1 - snoopdogg
sbr - 1 - Ciryandor
Ciryandor - 1 - Paendrag
Yakman - 1 - randakar
jonti-h - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
muttoneer - 1 - Jester180
walrus - 1 - Jopi
Jester180 - 1 - muttoneer


Final vote count

rexodia48 - 6 - trespoe, the_hdk, Rysz, walrus, EUROO7, randakar
snoopdogg - 5 - Kriszo, Yakman, Hax, Calamity, jonti-h
EUROO7 - 4 - Raczynski, dublish, The Arch Mede, OrangeYoshi
Rysz - 2 - sbr, Tornadoli
The Arch Mede - 1 - snoopdogg
sbr - 1 - Ciryandor
Ciryandor - 1 - Paendrag
jonti-h - 1 - jacob-Lundgren
muttoneer - 1 - Jester180
walrus - 1 - Jopi
Jester180 - 1 - muttoneer



I've fixed the obvious error in the 3h 4 minutes post, other than that this is all copy pasted from johho's counts with the correct colors filled in.
edit: Fixed the obvious count error with the votes on Rysz

I'll do the remaining days too in a bit.
 
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Vote Count Summary

Day 3


13h 4min to deadline

snoopdogg - 2 - sbr, Ciryandor
walrus - 1 - The Arch Mede
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
Emperor Walter - 1 - trespoe


6h 43min to deadline

snoopdogg - 3 - sbr, Ciryandor, Raczynski
Emperor Walter - 3 - trespoe, randakar, the_hdk
Raczynski - 2 - jacob-Lundgren, snoopdogg
walrus - 1 - The Arch Mede
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
Jopi - 1 - dublish
dublish - 1 - jonti-h
randakar - 1 - Rysz


3h 41min to deadline

snoopdogg - 4 - sbr, Ciryandor, Raczynski, Hax
walrus - 4 - The Arch Mede, Jopi, Calamity, EUROO7
Raczynski - 4 - jacob-Lundgren, snoopdogg, walrus, Tornadoli
Emperor Walter - 3 - trespoe, randakar, the_hdk
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
Jopi - 1 - dublish
dublish - 1 - jonti-h
randakar - 1 - Rysz
Rysz - 1 - von Loch Ness


3h 19min to deadline

Raczynski - 4 - jacob-Lundgren, snoopdogg, walrus, Tornadoli
Jopi - 4 - dublish, von Loch Ness, sbr, trespoe
walrus - 3 - The Arch Mede, Jopi, Calamity
snoopdogg - 3 - Ciryandor, Raczynski, Hax
AOK.11 - 3 - randakar, the_hdk, OrangeYoshi
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
von Loch Ness - 1 - jonti-h
randakar - 1 - Rysz


2h 50min to deadline

Raczynski - 4 - jacob-Lundgren, walrus, Tornadoli, AOK.11
Jopi - 4 - dublish, von Loch Ness, sbr, OrangeYoshi
walrus - 4 - The Arch Mede, Jopi, Calamity, randakar
snoopdogg - 3 - Ciryandor, Raczynski, Hax
von Loch Ness - 2 - jonti-h, trespoe
muttoneer - 2 - snoopdogg, EUROO7
AOK.11 - 1 - the_hdk
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
randakar - 1 - Rysz


2h 10min to deadline

Raczynski - 5 - jacob-Lundgren, walrus, Tornadoli, AOK.11, Jopi
Jopi - 5 - dublish, von Loch Ness, sbr, OrangeYoshi, trespoe
walrus - 5 - The Arch Mede, Calamity, randakar, EUROO7, Paendrag
snoopdogg - 3 - Ciryandor, Raczynski, Hax
von Loch Ness - 1 - jonti-h
muttoneer - 1 - snoopdogg
AOK.11 - 1 - the_hdk
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
randakar - 1 - Rysz


25min to deadline

Jopi - 6 - von Loch Ness, sbr, OrangeYoshi, trespoe, Jester180, Yakman
walrus - 6 - The Arch Mede, Calamity, randakar, EUROO7, Paendrag, Raczynski
Raczynski - 5 - jacob-Lundgren, walrus, Tornadoli, AOK.11, Jopi
snoopdogg - 4 - Ciryandor, Hax, dublish, muttoneer
von Loch Ness - 1 - jonti-h
Jester180 - 1 - snoopdogg
AOK.11 - 1 - the_hdk
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
randakar - 1 - Rysz


Final vote count

Jester180 - 6 - snoopdogg, randakar, AOK.11, Calamity, sbr, OrangeYoshi
Jopi - 4 - von Loch Ness, trespoe, Jester180, Yakman
walrus - 4 - The Arch Mede, EUROO7, Paendrag, Raczynski
Raczynski - 4 - jacob-Lundgren, walrus, Tornadoli, Jopi
snoopdogg - 4 - Ciryandor, Hax, dublish, muttoneer
von Loch Ness - 1 - jonti-h
AOK.11 - 1 - the_hdk
the_hdk - 1 - Kriszo
randakar - 1 - Rysz
 
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