I wouldn't be so quick to assume jonti's innocence. If anybody has developed a rep for being quick to pounce on a packmate, it's him. He proclaims it every chance he can get, usually whenever someone accuses him of defending a wolf. He jumped on one bandwagon after another on the fourth day, as if he was trying to either hide or to gain cred, and he was on the Slinkwagon yesterday (of course, so were you). He didn't lead the vote onto any of the wolves, he just followed others. With the seer dead, that sounds exactly like what a wolfish jonti would do, and it's probably one reason he has so many more victories than anyone else - he's good at hiding.
Well in your defence you did admit you can't read me
I do jump on packmates, but only when the situation requires it. What wolf me would have done was to save Slinky to gain cred, not let the TIE happen. But this is getting too much into OJ territory. I'm not the wolf, and the pack analysis makes this pretty clear. Like AOK said, remove jonti-h and add in x and what does it say then.
I have never been able to read jonti very well, and I don't think I've ever caught him when he was a wolf (I've lynched him as a fellow villager, however, usually on the last day...),
Yes, you went through a phase when you did it every game, until I made some complaints IIRC.
But conventional wisdom doesn't apply to a serial backstabber.
The point with backstabbing is that you only do it when the situation demands it. That's the difference between a successful wolf and a loose cannon. See the game where Spacehusky outed me (we were packmates) for the difference. I do it where it's necessary for the pack's survival, not just because it's fun or it gets me a win.
Voting Lemeard yesterday, that would have been good wolfplay. Endangering EURO or even Jamie is not. You have to balance your desire for victory with the need for your faction to win. This is where you get a lot of false positives on me TT, and you need to look beyond the fact that I'm #1 player. Ockham's razor and all of that.
I think Steed could also easily be the last wolf, as his "claim" to innocence is the weakest out of all of us. He put the first vote on Euro in Round Three, when five other people all had one vote on them, and then just didn't leap off. He could have just been offline all day, or maybe he didn't want to risk unvoting a wolf in a close vote or not. But a first vote, and one without a real argument for it, doesn't clear him very much, if at all.
IMO making the first vote on someone looks more to screw any analysis than anything else. Especially when it is not a reasoned vote, and it sticks all day.
Other than that, he voted for AOK over Jamie, and Slinky over Lemmy.
Which makes him a pretty good suspect.
Unfortunately, I can't even write you off. But I have the least to suspect you of. I have much less experience with you than I do with jonti and Steed (who were already veterans when I was just starting, many years ago), and I can't say I know how you would deal with voting towards packmates. With them, however, I have a lot more to suspect. I guess that's about as good as you can get.
He's pretty much as bad a backstabber as me, but doesn't yet have the rep for it.
Jonti is a very questionable packmate with Euro or Jamie, you don't fit well with Jamie, and I don't fit with Lemmy or Euro. Steed and Euro, however, isn't as clear, and there's no reason at all he couldn't fit with Jamie or Lemmy.
This is the key sentence here. Again, using Ockham's slightly blunt razor Steed is the best suspect. Not only that but he's not actually said anything much all game.
Speaking of bandwagons, he did follow my vote switch from jamie, to lemeard, to steed, back to jamie rather quickly.
(edit: Especially considering the way he followed my silly vote on Lemeard based on faulty reasoning ;-) )
I had some suspicions of Lemeard myself, like the fact he got very cagey on MSN whenever I mentioned WW. He usually talks about the game a lot, who he suspects and who he thinks is clear and all of that.
Unfortunately I've done my share of packstabbing as I'm sure Steed can attest ;-)
Indeed.
I do think that Steed is the best suspect here. As has been said he is the only one of us who fits with the dead wolves at all well. There's not really much that I can add to what others have said (which despite Randakar usually siezing on that as a baddie tell, is nothing of the sort) because it's been said before and probably better than I can put it.
TT: Doesn't fit with the packs, and is too good to backstab - unless he's had a personality transplant.
Randakar: Doesn't fit with the packs, has been posting walls of text, which as he says, is near impossible without incriminating yourself.
Me: Fits with none of the confirmed wolves, and while a backstabber does not do it where it's avoidable. The only backstab that I'd have done as a wolf would be to have unvoted Slinky and voted Lem yesterday.
Vote Steed then. When all that remains and all that.
