Werewolf Lite CDXLVIII - Crónicas Revolucionarias: Los Hermanos Flores Magón

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Just like Lazarus, I am alive again!

In Lites, Day 3 is often the day to make a tie, as if you go into Day 4 without bagging a wolf, each day starting from Day 4 is just one night away from parity, no matter whether there was a tie or not.

Since I was just subbed into this game, I'm going to need to read through the thread before making an informed decision on where to place my vote.
 
Day 1, ~3.5 hours to deadline
Arkasas: 3
Ironhide [68]
Adamus [71]
Marty [75]

Alxeu: 2
Randakar [62]
HistoryDude [73]

Grimlock: 2
Aedan [72]
Nepechri [74]

Ironhide: 2
Culann [67]
LatinKaiser [60 Arkasas -> 70]

Inawordyes: 2
Emperor Ike [61]
Caillean [84]

HistoryDude: 1
Alxeu [81]

Randakar: 1
Witch Agatha [63]

Culann: 1
Grimlock [80]

Caillean: 1
Inawordyes [59 Alxeu -> 86]

Not Voting: Arkasas

Day 1, 1 hr 10 mins to deadline
Arkasas: 3
Ironhide [68]
Adamus [71]
Marty [75]

Alxeu: 3
HistoryDude [73]
Arkasas [93]
Witch Agatha [63 Randakar -> 97]

Grimlock: 3
Aedan [72]
Nepechri [74]
LatinKaiser [60 Arkasas -> 70 Ironhide -> 94]

Ironhide: 2
Culann [67]
Randakar [62 alxeu -> 96]

Inawordyes: 2
Emperor Ike [61]
Caillean [84]

HistoryDude: 1
Alxeu [81]

Culann: 1
Grimlock [80]

Caillean: 1
Inawordyes [59 Alxeu -> 86]

Not Voting: N/A

Day 1, 1 hr to deadline
Grimlock: 3
Aedan [72]
Nepechri [74]
Randakar [62 alxeu -> 96 Ironhide -> 100]

Inawordyes: 3
Emperor Ike [61]
Caillean [84]
LatinKaiser [60 Arkasas -> 70 Ironhide -> 94 Grimlock -> 102]

Arkasas: 3
Ironhide [68]
Adamus [71]
Marty [75]

Alxeu: 3
HistoryDude [73]
Arkasas [93]
Witch Agatha [63 Randakar -> 97]

Ironhide: 1
Culann [67]

HistoryDude: 1
Alxeu [81]

Culann: 1
Grimlock [80]

Caillean: 1
Inawordyes [59 Alxeu -> 86]

Not Voting: N/A

Day 1, 20 mins to deadline
Arkasas: 4
Ironhide [68]
Adamus [71]
Marty [75]
Alxeu [81 HistoryDude -> 105]

Alxeu: 4
HistoryDude [73]
Arkasas [93]
Witch Agatha [63 Randakar -> 97]
LatinKaiser [60 Arkasas -> 70 Ironhide -> 94 Grimlock -> 102]

Inawordyes: 3
Emperor Ike [61]
Caillean [84]
Randakar [62 alxeu -> 96 Ironhide -> 100 Grimlock -> 104]

Grimlock: 2
Aedan [72]
Nepechri [74]

Ironhide: 1
Culann [67]

Culann: 1
Grimlock [80]

Caillean: 1
Inawordyes [59 Alxeu -> 86]

Not Voting: N/A

Day 1, deadline
Grimlock: 5
Aedan [72]
Nepechri [74]
Alxeu [81 HistoryDude -> 105 Arkasas -> 109]
Arkasas [93 Alxeu -> 110]
LatinKaiser [60 Arkasas -> 70 Ironhide -> 94 Grimlock -> 102 Alxeu -> 111]

Arkasas: 3
Ironhide [68]
Adamus [71]
Marty [75]

Inawordyes: 3
Emperor Ike [61]
Caillean [84]
Randakar [62 Alxeu -> 96 Ironhide -> 100 Grimlock -> 104]

Alxeu: 2
HistoryDude [73]
Witch Agatha [63 Randakar -> 97]

Ironhide: 1
Culann [67]

Culann: 1
Grimlock [80]

Caillean: 1
Inawordyes [59 Alxeu -> 86]

Not Voting: N/A

Day 2, ~4 hours until deadline
Witch Agatha: 2
Randakar [115]
Adamus [127]

Emperor Ike: 2
Witch Agatha [118]
Marty [121]

LatinKaiser: 2
HistoryDude [122]
Arkasas [133]

HistoryDude: 2
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [randakar 123 -> 132]

Day 2, ~3 hours and 43 minutes until deadline
LatinKaiser: 3
HistoryDude [122]
Arkasas [133]
Emperor Ike [135]

HistoryDude: 3
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [randakar 123 -> 132]
Nepechri [134]

Witch Agatha: 2
Randakar [115]
Adamus [127]

Emperor Ike: 2
Witch Agatha [118]
Marty [121]

Day 2, ~2 hours to deadline
HistoryDude: 3
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [123 Randakar -> 132]
nepechri [134]
Witch Agatha [Emperor Ike 118 -> 145]

LatinKaiser: 3
HistoryDude [122]
Arkasas [133]
Emperor Ike [135]

Emperor Ike: 2
Marty [121]

Randakar: 1
Adamus [127 Witch Agatha -> 139]

Note Voted: 5
Randakar [115 Witch Agatha -> Adamus 137 -> Witch Agatha 146 -> No Vote 147]
Aedan
Ironhide
Caillean
Inawordyes

Day 2, ~3 hours and 43 minutes until deadline
LatinKaiser: 3
HistoryDude [122]
Arkasas [133]
Emperor Ike [135]

HistoryDude: 3
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [randakar 123 -> 132]
Nepechri [134]

Witch Agatha: 2
Randakar [115]
Adamus [127]

Emperor Ike: 2
Witch Agatha [118]
Marty [121]

Day 2, ~2 hours to deadline
HistoryDude: 4
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [123 Randakar -> 132]
nepechri [134]
Witch Agatha [Emperor Ike 118 -> 145]

LatinKaiser: 4
HistoryDude [122]
Arkasas [133]
Emperor Ike [135]
Caillean [151]

Emperor Ike: 2
Marty [121]

Randakar: 1
Adamus [127 Witch Agatha -> 139]

Not Voted: 5
Randakar [115 Witch Agatha -> Adamus 137 -> Witch Agatha 146 -> No Vote 147]
Aedan
Ironhide
Caillean
Inawordyes

Day 2, ~34 minutes to deadline
HistoryDude: 4
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [123 Randakar -> 132]
nepechri [134]
Witch Agatha [Emperor Ike 118 -> 145]

Adamus: 4
Aedan [158]
HistoryDude [LatinKaiser 122 -> 160]
Randakar [115 Witch Agatha -> Adamus 137 -> Witch Agatha 146 -> No Vote 147 -> 163]
Ironhide [167]

LatinKaiser: 3
Arkasas [133]
Emperor Ike [135]
Caillean [151]

Emperor Ike: 1
Marty [121]

Randakar: 1
Adamus [127 Witch Agatha -> 139]

Not Voted: 1
Inawordyes

Day 2, deadline
Adamus: 5
Aedan [158]
HistoryDude [LatinKaiser 122 -> 160]
Randakar [115 Witch Agatha -> Adamus 137 -> Witch Agatha 146 -> No Vote 147 -> 163]
Ironhide [167]
Arkasas [LatinKaiser 133 -> 170]

HistoryDude: 4
LatinKaiser [128]
Culann [123 Randakar -> 132]
nepechri [134]
Witch Agatha [Emperor Ike 118 -> 145]

LatinKaiser: 2
Emperor Ike [135]
Caillean [151]

Emperor Ike: 2
Marty [121]

Randakar: 1
Adamus [127 Witch Agatha -> 139]

Not Voted: 1
Inawordyes
 
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I switched my vote to save myself. I am a villager.

It's possible that LatinKaiser was saved, but I don't want to vote them again so early.

On Day 1, Ironhide, Adamus, and marty all voted to lynch Arkasas, who was the seer. Adamus was a villager, but the others might not be. Perhaps one of them was a wolf trying to get (who they saw as) an innocent villager lynched?

Vote IronhideG1.
 
I'm kind of suspicious of how fast Adamus was run up in the last hour from yesterday. Aedan made a case that Adamus was not providing any explanations for their votes, even when pressed about it. Yet, everyone who followed Aedan's lead did almost exactly the same thing Aedan was accusing Adamus of doing. While they did give an explanation, it was essentially: "oh, that makes sense."

For now, I'll accept HistoryDude's explanation for self-preservation, as he had been in the lead or tied for the lead for almost the entire four hours leading up to deadline. Since Arkasas is dead, that just leaves us with Aedan, Ironhide G1, and Randy. Ironhide G1 did place Adamus in a tie with HistoryDude, but since HistoryDude already voted for him today, I don't want to place 2 votes on him before anyone else has received a vote. Aedan has voted for both players (Grimlock and Adamus) who were lynched in the last two days, but that might be due to people following his analysis (especially yesterday).

That just leaves Randy. On Day 1, he was the third vote on Grimlock, but switched off to be the third vote on inawordyes (whom I have subbed for), although the latter didn't place inawordyes into a tie. Yesterday, he said he was placing his vote where it mattered, yet he was the only person voting for Witch Agatha at the time. And then, yet again, he's the third vote on Adamus. Randy has only been voted three times in the past two days and never having more than one vote at a time. So let's see if we can get any information by putting some pressure on him.

VOTE Randakar
 
Well, I'm at a loss on what to do, too.

Marty sums up the situation quite nicely, but I have a problem with his argument that lynching quiet people is the right call - it's also what the wolves would do. Quiet folks are easy scapegoats.

But I need some time to think.
Not what I said. I said we cannot lynch people for being quiet alone.
 
So my push on Adamus didn't pan out.

I'm kind of suspicious of how fast Adamus was run up in the last hour from yesterday. Aedan made a case that Adamus was not providing any explanations for their votes, even when pressed about it. Yet, everyone who followed Aedan's lead did almost exactly the same thing Aedan was accusing Adamus of doing. While they did give an explanation, it was essentially: "oh, that makes sense."

For now, I'll accept HistoryDude's explanation for self-preservation, as he had been in the lead or tied for the lead for almost the entire four hours leading up to deadline. Since Arkasas is dead, that just leaves us with Aedan, Ironhide G1, and Randy. Ironhide G1 did place Adamus in a tie with HistoryDude, but since HistoryDude already voted for him today, I don't want to place 2 votes on him before anyone else has received a vote. Aedan has voted for both players (Grimlock and Adamus) who were lynched in the last two days, but that might be due to people following his analysis (especially yesterday).

That just leaves Randy. On Day 1, he was the third vote on Grimlock, but switched off to be the third vote on inawordyes (whom I have subbed for), although the latter didn't place inawordyes into a tie. Yesterday, he said he was placing his vote where it mattered, yet he was the only person voting for Witch Agatha at the time. And then, yet again, he's the third vote on Adamus. Randy has only been voted three times in the past two days and never having more than one vote at a time. So let's see if we can get any information by putting some pressure on him.

VOTE Randakar
There is some truth that the people following me didn't do much more than agree with me when voting Adamus after me. Of them though, I feel Randy's the weakest to vote for that reason. Randy pressured Adamus before I did, and even backed it with a vote. He just later switched off since there wasn't anyone else with him at the time. My case was in no small part continuing Randy's pressure, so it's that remarkable that he easily switched back to Adamus once other people were voting him.

Obviously none of this clears Randy of course. The rest of your reasoning on him holds up (though I've never put any particular stock in Randy's third voter rule of thumb).

As for my responsibility in lynching both players lynched so far, while I am definitely majorly responsible for Adamus, with Grimlock I just threw down a reasonless day 1 vote because nothing stood out to me at the time, and somehow Grimlock ended up having the most votes. If anyone voted Grimlock because of me it was because they were mindlessly following me, not because I made any kind of analysis to believe in.

On the tie question I do agree that we should aim for a tie today.

Of possible suspects, Witch Agatha stands out to me. Despite being fairly vocal on a pro-activity agenda (lynch inactive, don't lynch active players) they themselves haven't been particularly deep in their own engagement. Little on why they choose some of the players they vote, and seem to have an interest in appearing active without needing to stick their neck out, by placing placeholder votes. This rubs me the wrong way and seems to me like a wolfish tactic to appear helpful to the village without actually being so.

Vote Witch Agatha
 
Not what I said. I said we cannot lynch people for being quiet alone.

Yes. It's subtle. But it's there.
Sorry, maybe I'm overanalyzing your behavior a bit. A consequence of the fact that I know you're a wolf.

Apologies for mentioning this now, so early, but I don't want to risk you realizing I know and fake outing me, instead.

Yes, I knew yesterday. I was afraid the wolves would put 1 and 1 together if I outed you then with Arkasas' off-base behavior already being noticed by people. In hindsight, I shouldn't have bothered.

Vote Marty99

Oh, and the 'I need to think' bit? It was about this.
 
Hmm, it is day 3 and that's tie day but it seems the general feeling here is to avoid that. I prefer to gamble best odds to bag a wolf right now, but it is risky. The only thing I can thing of to contribute is that Ark being the seer, I think it is more likely than not that he scanned two of the scan magnets and in theory that would be Aedan, Dedonus1.0, and Alxeu. With two of them dead, and Ark not outing Aedan I think there is a strong possibility that Aedan isn't a wolf. That being said, I'm not sure I like his case on Agatha. She was lynched last game for seemingly being inactive by me and this seems like rational response to avoid the same fate. I don't have any strong feeling about whether I think she's a villager or wolf though.

I can't be on at deadline, which means I should vote. Euro isn't joking on missing a vote it seems. I'd really like to put someone in contention that hasn't been under pressure yet and said person voting behavior has been driving me nuts.

Vote Randy
 
I should probably stop posting at 2am or at least refresh the page. Appears Randy has been scanned and I was wrong on who Ark had scanned. Not sure I like trying to figure out if Aedan is a wolf or not, but it does seem we have an outing. Or maybe? I don't know if I want to take this on faith OTOH not like we have any other powers to lean on. If it turns out that Marty is a villager Randy deserves to get lynched imo.

Unvote Randy
Vote Marty
 
Correct, Arkasas scanned me and Marty. It's an outing.
 
I’m travelling today and was busy packing yesterday, so apologies for not being active yet, and apologies for my future inactivity today.

But at least randy made it easy for me to decide who to vote for today (although I don’t understand why he needs to out marty this early, but whatever).

Vote marty
 
Thanks Randy for making my morning a little easier.

I'll put in Marty for now but I think we should discuss other potential candidates if possible.

Vote Marty99
 
I’m travelling today and was busy packing yesterday, so apologies for not being active yet, and apologies for my future inactivity today.

But at least randy made it easy for me to decide who to vote for today (although I don’t understand why he needs to out marty this early, but whatever).

Vote marty

Because of the obvious move by certain people to go after me. It's a lot harder to be credible if you're on the chopping block.
Plus, I have things to do today.
 
If marty is innocent, lynching randakar is what we should do tomorrow. I'll trust the outing.

Unvote IronhideG1.
Vote marty99.
 
As an aside, I recommend folks go over Marty's posts with a fine comb tomorrow. He seems to have been suggesting we lynch inactives and seemed a bit defensive of Aedan. Might be nothing, in both cases, but still..