Werewolf CCLXI: Ghoul revival

[Emperor Ike]

The Time of square cubes is over. So for the reasons stated by several other members of the village. Of course we could try voting Callie but we can't be sure if Callie was just used as a scape goat to look like someone saved them or if they are actually s baddie. Thus should vote for those who voted to lynch alderman.

VOTE TEAM WOMBAT

 

[Ironhide G1]

I think the majority of remaining players are baddies by this point, yet we still keep lynching villagers. Well, the wolves seem to also keep hunting us, so I can't tell if the wolves are trying to kill the other pack and failing, or if they have a truce to wipe out the village. By this point, I have very little hope that the village can actually pull this off.

The problem with being a traitless villager is that I am still completely in the dark, and our major goodies have been killed off, and I feel that the wolves have been playing our actions against us. This vote is based more on feel than anything else, but I at least want to try something else, someone who not only pushed inawordyes but also was saved earlier in the game.

Vote TeamWombat

 

[Team Wombat]

Killing a known alderman is high on the baddies' priority list. It's high time we kill wombat. After he flips baddie we should take out Chumley and Caillean.

Vote Team Wombat

Nope. My reads have been crap this game, and people have been following them (agatha, arkasas, and now inawordyes). My assumptions this game have been dead wrong (at least on the baddies, I was right about nepechri flipping villager and still think my goodie reads make sense). It's compounded by the fact that I can't be on at deadline to adjust my votes. Would have jumped off agatha, but probably not arkasas or inawordyes (no way of proving that in any case). Not that it would have helped much in Agatha's case, as the-Hdk and Culann were the other choices that day.

Killing a known alderman is high on the baddies' priority list. It's high time we kill wombat. After he flips baddie we should take out Chumley and Caillean.

Vote Team Wombat

Yes, I made a read that inawordyes, who had voted 0 goodies, was a baddie, and voted accordingly. The alderman part I definitely found worrying because I thought he was a baddie! You say an alderman villager is a top priority - an alderman baddie would practically be a death sentence for an already reeling village. Didn't help that I thought he voted an almost certain villager (flockingbird) randomly and out of the blue.

 

[Team Wombat]

I think the majority of remaining players are baddies by this point, yet we still keep lynching villagers. Well, the wolves seem to also keep hunting us, so I can't tell if the wolves are trying to kill the other pack and failing, or if they have a truce to wipe out the village. By this point, I have very little hope that the village can actually pull this off.

The problem with being a traitless villager is that I am still completely in the dark, and our major goodies have been killed off, and I feel that the wolves have been playing our actions against us. This vote is based more on feel than anything else, but I at least want to try something else, someone who not only pushed inawordyes but also was saved earlier in the game.

Vote TeamWombat

Village has one bullet in the chamber - the packs are highly incentivized to kill each other at this point. So they're at least trying to find the other packs. Bad news is that they seem to be doing as bad a job of wolf-hunting as we are.

 

[beartjah]

VOTECOUNT DAY 7 - 5.5ish hours till deadline​

Team Wombat: 4
Sleepyhead [877]
Adamus [879]
Emperor Ike [901]
Ironhide [902]

caillean: 2
Historydude [880]
Chumley [897]

sleepyhead: 1
AsdfeZxcas [884]

historydude: 1
MAWofDoom [899]

Not voted:
Alxeu
Caillean
Flockingbird
Dedonus
Team Wombat

 

[Team Wombat]

The Time of square cubes is over. So for the reasons stated by several other members of the village. Of course we could try voting Callie but we can't be sure if Callie was just used as a scape goat to look like someone saved them or if they are actually s baddie. Thus should vote for those who voted to lynch alderman.

VOTE TEAM WOMBAT

Vote Emperor Ike

How the heck you escaped voting attention after day 2 is a mystery to me, given your atrocious voting record and your refusal to give anything resembling useful analysis. EURO did a good job leading the village, but six rounds has proven him saving you with a snipe was clearly a mistake.

 

[Team Wombat]

Traitclaims (confirmed in bold):​

IronhideG1 - traitless villager (#563)

Unconfirmed but probable:
Sleepyhead - psychic (#247 - made a claim that 8 baddies remain after night 1)
Dedonus - psychic (#788 - made a claim that 7 baddies remain after night 5)
historydude - psychic (#849, and elsewhere)

Unconfirmed
Team Wombat - traitless villager (#163)
Chumley - witness (#783 and elsewhere)
caillean - traitless villager (#868)

That leaves flockingbird, Ike, MAW, Alxeu, Adamus, and AsdfeZxcas as not having claimed anything yet.

Of these:

Highly probable that one, and only one, of the psychic claimants is a baddie. Between 0-2 is the range.
Assuming Chumley is telling the truth, witness is a goodie-coded trait; it is less likely he is a baddie.
Per historydude, there is a tramp running about; this tramp is a probable baddie.

 

[AsdfeZxcas]

Aren't you mister "Culann is a solid choice"? Did you wind up hunting him, thinking he was in the opposing pack? Anyway if you want to contribute please help in the lynch of ghoul wombat, or is he your packmate?

Or did you wind up hunting Culann because he wasn't your packmate and thought you could pin it on me? Or is that beyond your pack's capacity?

 

[Sleepyhead]

Or did you wind up hunting Culann because he wasn't your packmate and thought you could pin it on me? Or is that beyond your pack's capacity?

Why do you respond to this a second time? Did you confer with your packmates between the two replies?

 

[AsdfeZxcas]

Why do you respond to this a second time? Did you confer with your packmates between the two replies?

Same reason Culann edited his post. I've got a brain and occasionally I use it to think about things after the fact.

 

[Emperor Ike]

Vote Emperor Ike

How the heck you escaped voting attention after day 2 is a mystery to me, given your atrocious voting record and your refusal to give anything resembling useful analysis. EURO did a good job leading the village, but six rounds has proven him saving you with a snipe was clearly a mistake.

You dare mock the memory of our president.

 

[AsdfeZxcas]

You dare mock the memory of our president.

I thought you and Sleepyhead declared Adamus president?

 

[Dedonus]

For now, I'll place a vote on Caillean, as Team Wombat already has 4 votes.

I'll take a look at the vote record again and see what I can find.

VOTE Caillean

 

[alxeu]

VOTECOUNT DAY 6​

caillean: 4
Adamus [774]
Sleepyhead [820]
Ironhide [823]
Emperor Ike [826]

VOTECOUNT DAY 7 - 5.5ish hours till deadline​

Team Wombat: 4
Sleepyhead [877]
Adamus [879]
Emperor Ike [901]
Ironhide [902]

Right...

So our pack of four is Sleepy, Adamus, Ike, and Ironhide?

And they think Caillean and Team Wombat are part of the other pack?


I reckon only one of the three psychics are evil, so Dedonus and Historydude are probably clean. Chumley is a witness, which probably isn't evil, either.

Our remaining baddie, based solely on gut feeling, is probably either Asdfe or MAW.


At any rate, the larger pack needs culling first. @Chumley1 and @HistoryDude, we shouldn't let the larger pack get what it wants or it'll be even less likely we have a chance. Not going to ping Dedonus, he's already here.

Vote Sleepyhead

 

[Dedonus]

Looking back on Day 4, due to Culann being hunted, 3 of the 4 main candidates (the_hdk, witch agatha, and culann) has turned up to be villagers, this leaves us to answer one question. Is Caillean also a villager and all the four main candidates were villagers run up by wolves or is she a baddie that got saved (whether by the village sympathetic to her technology issues or by a hypothetical pack)?

On the case of Sleepyhead, his Day 3 vote on Jeray makes me believe that he cannot be part of the red pack. There are several assumptions we would have to make to take his Day 1 vote on Chefjones as clearing. First, we have to assume he hasn't been alibi voting like crazy (this can also hypothetically be extended to Jeray) and that Chefjones' pack did not throw him under the bus on Day 1. Second, we have to assume that he was not the curse hit. And third, we have to assume he's telling the truth about his psychic trait claim.

The result I got from my psychic trait leads me to believe Sleepyhead's claim (the math lines up). While he could have guessed number of starting baddies by making an assumption of a standard setup, I don't know if the baddies would want that information given to the village so early in the game. He also voted for Grimlock the sorcerer on Day 2, which, unless he alibi voting like crazy (as I have said) indicates he's either a villager or a baddie who wasn't in contact with the sorcerer (and remember Grimlock was killed AFTER Sleepyhead revealed the result of his psychic trait).

If we accept his psychic trait claim, I am inclined to believe he cannot be the cursed villager. I feel giving a cursed villager traits would be a little too swingy for the baddies against the village (i.e. they not only gain an additional member but an ability too). I would guess that a vanilla villager would be the most likely candidate for the cursed hit. But that's just an assumption.

Lastly, on the alibi vote assumption, while I feel like Sleepyhead would be one to try to alibi vote, all three potential alibi votes (Chefjones, Grimlock, and Jeray) lead to baddie deaths.

So I personally don't think Sleepyhead is a good candidate for today UNLESS we think any of the above assumptions that I have mentioned are false.

 

[AsdfeZxcas]

Looking back on Day 4, due to Culann being hunted, 3 of the 4 main candidates (the_hdk, witch agatha, and culann) has turned up to be villagers, this leaves us to answer one question. Is Caillean also a villager and all the four main candidates were villagers run up by wolves or is she a baddie that got saved (whether by the village sympathetic to her technology issues or by a hypothetical pack)?

On the case of Sleepyhead, his Day 3 vote on Jeray makes me believe that he cannot be part of the red pack. There are several assumptions we would have to make to take his Day 1 vote on Chefjones as clearing. First, we have to assume he hasn't been alibi voting like crazy (this can also hypothetically be extended to Jeray) and that Chefjones' pack did not throw him under the bus on Day 1. Second, we have to assume that he was not the curse hit. And third, we have to assume he's telling the truth about his psychic trait claim.

The result I got from my psychic trait leads me to believe Sleepyhead's claim (the math lines up). While he could have guessed number of starting baddies by making an assumption of a standard setup, I don't know if the baddies would want that information given to the village so early in the game. He also voted for Grimlock the sorcerer on Day 2, which, unless he alibi voting like crazy (as I have said) indicates he's either a villager or a baddie who wasn't in contact with the sorcerer (and remember Grimlock was killed AFTER Sleepyhead revealed the result of his psychic trait).

If we accept his psychic trait claim, I am inclined to believe he cannot be the cursed villager. I feel giving a cursed villager traits would be a little too swingy for the baddies against the village (i.e. they not only gain an additional member but an ability too). I would guess that a vanilla villager would be the most likely candidate for the cursed hit. But that's just an assumption.

Lastly, on the alibi vote assumption, while I feel like Sleepyhead would be one to try to alibi vote, all three potential alibi votes (Chefjones, Grimlock, and Jeray) lead to baddie deaths.

So I personally don't think Sleepyhead is a good candidate for today UNLESS we think any of the above assumptions that I have mentioned are false.

I doubt Grimlock had made contact with either pack considering their early inactivity. I can see Chefjones being thrown under the bus for inactivity as well. Don't have an explanation for the Jeray vote. Maybe he's a blue wolf.

 

[alxeu]

Looking back on Day 4, due to Culann being hunted, 3 of the 4 main candidates (the_hdk, witch agatha, and culann) has turned up to be villagers, this leaves us to answer one question. Is Caillean also a villager and all the four main candidates were villagers run up by wolves or is she a baddie that got saved (whether by the village sympathetic to her technology issues or by a hypothetical pack)?

On the case of Sleepyhead, his Day 3 vote on Jeray makes me believe that he cannot be part of the red pack. There are several assumptions we would have to make to take his Day 1 vote on Chefjones as clearing. First, we have to assume he hasn't been alibi voting like crazy (this can also hypothetically be extended to Jeray) and that Chefjones' pack did not throw him under the bus on Day 1. Second, we have to assume that he was not the curse hit. And third, we have to assume he's telling the truth about his psychic trait claim.

The result I got from my psychic trait leads me to believe Sleepyhead's claim (the math lines up). While he could have guessed number of starting baddies by making an assumption of a standard setup, I don't know if the baddies would want that information given to the village so early in the game. He also voted for Grimlock the sorcerer on Day 2, which, unless he alibi voting like crazy (as I have said) indicates he's either a villager or a baddie who wasn't in contact with the sorcerer (and remember Grimlock was killed AFTER Sleepyhead revealed the result of his psychic trait).

If we accept his psychic trait claim, I am inclined to believe he cannot be the cursed villager. I feel giving a cursed villager traits would be a little too swingy for the baddies against the village (i.e. they not only gain an additional member but an ability too). I would guess that a vanilla villager would be the most likely candidate for the cursed hit. But that's just an assumption.

Lastly, on the alibi vote assumption, while I feel like Sleepyhead would be one to try to alibi vote, all three potential alibi votes (Chefjones, Grimlock, and Jeray) lead to baddie deaths.

So I personally don't think Sleepyhead is a good candidate for today UNLESS we think any of the above assumptions that I have mentioned are false.

Sleepy tends to vote early in a day and disappear until after deadline. His vote on Jeray on day 3 in an environment where Euro has been leading mass vote swings just before deadline daily is not, in my opinion, clearing. Furthermore, both he and Adamus voted Jeray Day 1 at different points (Adamus also hopping on Ike Day 1), and the vote on Grimlock could be seen as pushing to save Emperor Ike, who reasonably fits as a Sleepy packmate.

There's a lot of stuff going on in the early days where it looks like Sleepy, Adamus, and Ike are all both working to protect and distance from one another. I'll admit the Ironhide connection is flimsier, but having previously claimed traitless villager, he fits as a cursed hit.

 

[beartjah]

VOTECOUNT DAY 7 - 1ish hours till deadline​

Team Wombat: 4
Sleepyhead [877]
Adamus [879]
Emperor Ike [901]
Ironhide [902]

caillean: 3
Historydude [880]
Chumley [897]
Dedonus [913]

sleepyhead: 2
AsdfeZxcas [884]
Alxeu [914]

historydude: 1
MAWofDoom [899]

emperor ike: 1
Team wombat [906]

Not voted: 2
@Caillean
@Flockingbird

 

[Flockingbird]

You’re gonna laugh, I hope, but I played eeny-meenie-miney-moe with the names of everyone I have never voted for. I probably have a better chance of hitting a wolf this way. I ended on Asdfe.

VOTE ASDFE

At least this time I know no one hoodwinked me into this one.

 

[Dedonus]

I doubt Grimlock had made contact with either pack considering their early inactivity. I can see Chefjones being thrown under the bus for inactivity as well. Don't have an explanation for the Jeray vote. Maybe he's a blue wolf.

If we conclude that Chefjones was thrown under the bus by his pack (the switch was suggested by EUROO7), we would therefore have to conclude that you, Alxeu, and MAWofDoom could also be part of the blue pack. Makes me a little suspicious that two of you are voting Sleepyhead.

Sleepy tends to vote early in a day and disappear until after deadline. His vote on Jeray on day 3 in an environment where Euro has been leading mass vote swings just before deadline daily is not, in my opinion, clearing. Furthermore, both he and Adamus voted Jeray Day 1 at different points (Adamus also hopping on Ike Day 1), and the vote on Grimlock could be seen as pushing to save Emperor Ike, who reasonably fits as a Sleepy packmate.

There's a lot of stuff going on in the early days where it looks like Sleepy, Adamus, and Ike are all both working to protect and distance from one another. I'll admit the Ironhide connection is flimsier, but having previously claimed traitless villager, he fits as a cursed hit.

So this would have been vote count when Sleepyhead voted Jeray on Day 3.

Adamus: 3
the_hdk [363]
AsdfeZxcas [369]
Nepechri [385]

Marty99: 5
Dedonus [392]
Culann [393]
MAWofDoom [394]

Jeray2000: 3
Chumley [368]
Ironhide [390]
Sleepyhead [396]

Nepechri: 2
Euro [359]
Jeray2000 [364]

Jopi: 1
Historydude [380]

Emperor ike: 1
inawordyes [387]

Witch agatha: 1
Marty99 [388]

Culann: 1
Team Wombat [395]

Saying that this wasn't a dangerous vote on Jeray seems to be underselling it. At least to me, this doesn't look like an alibi vote. But that's just my opinion.