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I could be truthful and blame my short attention span. :) Alternatively, I could point to me being so accustomed to coalition governments where obtaining 40/50 seats for a single party is a major, major victory, that the simple fact that the GL won an overall majority left me awestruck. Oh, and I was conditioned by all the opinion polls to expect a rather mediocre performance by the GL, so that added to the sheen of their victory.

Yes, I was awestruck in many ways, it had nothing to do whatsoever with a short attention span. ;)

For most of the period of my life in which I have been poltically aware, I've known the ConDem coalition.

I know how you feel ;)
 
Stuyvesant: But this is back in the days before Proportional Representation. ;) In the 19th Century the Dutch actually used a two-round electoral system similar to France; that would have likely entrenched a two party system (if there were any political parties active in The Netherlands at the time) far more rigid than one formed in the crucible of one-round FPTP.

Densley: Then you are one of the lucky ones. Winning several thumping majorities in succession leads governemnts to do silly things at the behest of other nations which arguably could have been avoided by coalition governments. :)
 
Tanzhang, I love this AAR, and I don't normally follow Vicky AARs! Consider me subscribed
 
Gen. M: At least someone got it. :)

LordOfBlood: And conquest, war and blood is what ye shall receive, once our infamy levels drop. :)

Zynnw: Thank you very much! :)

Merrick: In that case thanks for taking the time to give it a good read-through; I rarely read EUIII AARs myself. I didn't actually think you'd like it, given how it pretty much flies in the face of your three commandments at times, but I'm more than happy to have been proven wrong in this regard. :)

I'd just like to offer my thanks to everyone who has commented in this AAR so far, and everyone who voted for it in this round of the ACAs; the support I've received for this AAR so far has been nothing short of fantastic, and I thank you all. Election updates are quite labour intensive, and I ma quite busy at the moment, so I just thought i'd worn you guys that it may be some time before I can post the next update.

Thanks for your patience. :)
 
Say Tanzhang, I'm seeing the effect of Party loyalty lessened from AHD to HoD, can you confirm this? It seems as if the more recent election results weigh heavier for the party loyalty, but the older election results fade away..

Other than that, great way to sneak Thorbecke in again. But isn't it weird to see one move from the reactionaries to the liberals?
 
Say Tanzhang, I'm seeing the effect of Party loyalty lessened from AHD to HoD, can you confirm this? It seems as if the more recent election results weigh heavier for the party loyalty, but the older election results fade away..

I'm not so sure actually, because virtually all the election campaigns I've seen so far in HoD have been in nations which start out with no or an extremely restricted franchise. It makes sense that parties that do well under one set of franchise rules, and continue to do well in a certain area for generations, will suddenly find their position compromised once the franchise rules are changed; I call it the "South Africa effect." Because it can take ages in some conservative states to actually get an upper house liberal enough or a people militant enough to pass reforms, I can't actually say whether or not partly loyalty has a greater or lesser effect in HoD than in AHD due to franchise changes acting as a possible false positive.

Other than that, great way to sneak Thorbecke in again. But isn't it weird to see one move from the reactionaries to the liberals?

Outside of Quebec, yes. One thing I went to great pains to establish was that the Anti-Revolutionaires were a (fictional) broad church of anti-Bonapartist and anti-republicans of all political hues. Once the Revolutionaires were banned, there was no need for the coalition to continue, so those liberals and moderate liberals within the broad church went off and formed their own Liberale and Gematigde denominations while the true believers, once pruned of all the heretics and dissenters, were free to worship a more puritanical faith, so to speak.

So the truth is, Thorbecke was never a reactionary to begin with. He was a non-republican liberal torn between two extremes, and chose the most preferable. The same can be said for a great deal of Dutch MPs and the electorate at large.
 
Sorry for the long-ish delay guys, but here's the next update at last! I've done something a little different this time and split the campaign from the background and manifestoes and merged that with the opinion polls; a decision which in my mind makes an awful lot of sense. This means that henceforth we will have three updates for each election: background and manifestoes, campaign and polls and finally the results. I'd love to hear your feedback on this move and whether you approve of my decision or not. :)
 
1844_zpsbc5a02fe.png


Background:

There was but one major issue which dominated (or seemed to dominate, if you asked any of the newspaper pundits) the Dutch election of 1844, and that was the economy. Gerrit Schimmelpenninck was widely and rightly derided for his economic ineptitude during his first term as Prime Minister, while first van Bosse and then later Thorbecke managed to run metaphorical rings around him during the all-important Tweede Kamer economic debates. To the economically-conscious upper and upper-middle classes, the Liberale's Laissez-faire free trade policies looked like ray of sunshine compared with the doom and gloom stormclouds of GLP ineptitude and ARP protectionist ignorance. And thanks to the GLP government, these opinions mattered, since the 1844 election was the first held since the middle classes had been awarded the right to vote. Whether or not Gerrit's own policies (to the extent which we can call them his own policies) would prove to be his undoing was a question on many a voters lips come the election campaign.

Although the economy was the major issue of the 1844 campaign (when isn't the economy a major issue during an election campaign?) it is perhaps important to remember that issues such as defence, foreign policy and electoral reform were also important, and on the whole the GLP had governed well in these areas. Gerrit's naval expansion policies were popular amongst the public initially and continued to be well recieved throughout his first term: The Dutch were a maritime people and he was sure to be able to win a good deal many conservative votes on election day in seaside constituencies like Rotterdam and Antwerp. Anglophiles, mostly city traders and merchants who did business with the lion of the near north-west, praised the GLP for their pro-British foreign policy while those Francophones in the deep south resented what they continued to see as “foreign” oppression in the form of direct rule from Amsterdam. Fortunately even with the changes to the franchise, people who held such extreme views were unlikely to make up a large proportion of eligible voters.

Electoral reform remained something of a thorny issue for all parties. The GLP of course had been the party to introduce it, and technically speaking should be given the credit for extending the franchise. Whether the electorate was prepared to give them the credit for introducing it or the Liberales, who as mentioned previously did most of the prodding, remained to be seen. The ARP of course were rather hostile to the whole idea, but for Justinus van der Brugghen or any other ARP MP to advocate outright opposition would have been insane, and not to mention nothing short of electoral suicide. The ARP therefore sought to moderate its stance somewhat, switching tack from total opposition to middle class votes to a weighted franchise similar to the one originally proposed by Schimmelpenninck. Even by favouring a return to a weighted franchise Justinius and his party still managed to come across as a bunch of out-of-touch right-wing extremists by the public at large... One simply can't imagine why.

The de Decker Effect:

Of all the parties contesting the next election it was however the smallest which had the most cause to be optimistic. The expansion of the franchise naturally led to a net increase in the number of Roman Catholic voters – fertile ground for De Katholieken as one might guess. Furthermore the net increase in the number of constituencies meant that for the first time ever, Brussels would be able to elect more than one MP. Belgium as a whole was still woefully under-represented in the Tweede Kamer and unfortunately the boundaries of southern constituencies in those days were often artificially altered to disperse “Bonapartist” or “Republican” voters amongst large bodies of Dutch-speaking Protestants,[1] but this didn't deter neither the party nor it's most visible rising star; Pierre de Decker. Pierre had narrowly lost his chance to become a MP at the last election, thanks primarily to the unwelcome intervention of a number of independents of questionable integrity and views. The fact that De Katholieken was not so much an independent political party but a representative or arm of a wider Catholic and Francophone political movement severely hampered its post-election campaign prospects. The collective leadership was bad enough, but as the only requirement for membership was that one be of Catholic faith (as certified by one's local parish priest) meant that it was a ripe fruit just waiting to be plucked and picked by all sorts of Catholic republican and Bonapartist extremists; and pluck and pick at it they did. Underground Francophone groups of all political tendencies learned from the vote-splitting lesson of Wallonia and Brussels and began to clandestinely infiltrate the ADFCPL and other organisations affiliated to the party – or indeed the party membership itself. By taking control of the extra-parliamentary executive council, they could easily move the party and the mass membership towards a more radical – indeed treacherous as far as the state was concerned – political position.

Reports of what would later be called “entryism” by radical republicans and Bonapartists quickly caught the eye of the press barons and their journalists, and sensationalist reports of this phenomenon spread through the country like wildfire on the back of the mighty media machine and naturally, this did little to endear the party to the public at large, even amongst Catholics. De Katholieken support plummeted in the opinion polls, and at one point fetched an all-time record low support level of a mere one percent of the electorate, and that was under the new franchise rules! Something approaching a “Green Scare” developed in the minds of conservative, mostly ARP supporting Calvinists and other Protestants, who started forming Protestant militias and other paramilitary or vigilante groups, fearing as they did the complete and utter takeover of Dutch society by Catholic entryists. These groups would attack and intimidate known Catholics on sight, and were a constant thorn in the side of the Royal Marshals[2] who upheld law and order throughout the country.

His experience of 1840 and the events immediately after motivated Pierre to take a harder line against the Francophone radicals, and curiously, he did this by first attacking his own party. At the Fourth Annual Conference of the All-Dutch and Francophone Catholic People's Political League, de Decker attacked the collective leadership of the party from the speakers' rostrum, criticising it as outdated, misplaced and irrelevant to the real needs of the Catholic population. He instead conjured up a vision of a more centralised party with a single leader and a single voice, and thoroughly denounced the entryists (with likely more than a few of them present) with all the fervour of a fire and brimstone preacher. He decried the French Revolution as an ungodly and un-Catholic act and called for the immediate revocation of membership of all members who held pro-Revolutionaire views, on the grounds that support for such views was incompatible with Catholicism. In light of Robespierre's policies on religion and an attempt to set up his own, one cannot help but concede that de Decker's argument had more than a few grains of truth to it, even though I for one am sure that only a tiny, indeed minuscule proportion of entryists were either non-Catholic or insincere in their professed Catholicism. The speech was greeted almost immediately with jeers from the entryists and Revolutionaire fellow travellers, but de Decker was not one to be intimidated and continued with his speech, shouting over the top of them at times when he had to. The result of the conference was clear; de Decker's motions were carried by a delegate vote of around two-to-one. The collective leadership was over, and there was to be no guessing as to who would be named the first De Katholieken party leader; de Decker won that post unopposed.

The conference received wide coverage in all the major (and minor) newspapers and was a huge boost to both De Katholieken and to de Decker's fortunes. Benefiting immensely from the media attention caused by the “Green Scare” Pierre became a national figure, well-known and respected for taking a brave stance in opposing the apparent Revolutionaire menace. He used the limelight wisely, and with the full and attentive ear of the press began denouncing the Protestant militias, calling on Gerrit Schimmelpenninck to ban all political paramilitary groups and to outlaw the harassment of voters. This had of course been a GLP policy at the last election, so Gerrit was more than happy to oblige, provided he had the support of either the King or the Ridderkamer – thanks to de Decker's lobbying he won both; another prime example of a GLP policy success obtained by prodding and pushing by someone from another party.

antiharas_zpsdf18db0f.png


With the once prevalent threat of voter harassment now all but eliminated from Dutch political life, party activists and members of De Katholieken could be confident that despite the party's low poll ratings, their largely untapped pool of first-time voters would be free to support them on polling day without fearing for their own safety. Using the momentum from the anti-harassment bill, de Decker initiated a mass membership drive shortly after amongst the nation's Catholic populace – even those yet without voting rights were courted as potential members. The upshot of this strategy was that de Decker was able to rapidly increase the party funds, as generally speaking there were more Dutch Catholics that couldn't vote than could, which in turn was pumped in to a select handful of winnable constituencies. Pierre de Decker's party reforms: recruiting a mass membership coupled with a “narrow front”electoral strategy were both revolutionary for their time, and therefore largely untried and untested (to the best of my knowledge he was the first in the world to theorise such tactics.) If they were to being failure, not success on polling day (and bear in mind, this would be a likely prospect given that they were still only hovering at around 2-4 percent before the election campaign in spite of the widespread popularity of their leader.) then surely de Decker would be held responsible, and heads (primarily his) would roll.

The Manifestoes:

schmpelpenninck_zpse71520ee.png


Gematigde Liberale Partij (Moderate Liberal Party)

Party Leader and Prospective Prime Minister: Gerrit Schimmelpenninck
Ideology: Centrist, Liberal-Conservative
Position on Dutch Political Spectrum: centre-left, (social) centre (economic)
Party Colours: Light blue and white.

Financial Policy: The GLP continues to support cutting taxes in order to stimulate growth, and apologises for keeping taxes at their pre-1840 levels in order to fund important policies like defence and expansion of the navy. This was done in defence of free trade, as the only alternative would be to raise tariffs and we maintain and will continue to maintain that high taxes are preferable to low, or indeed any tariffs.

Industrial Policy: Employment subsidies may have to be cut in non-essential industries in order to balance the budget and pay for tax cuts or defence expenditure.

Electoral Reform: Is no longer a priority, now that we have increased parliamentary representation and extended the franchise. Ending Gerrymandering, censorship of the press and moving towards a secret ballot remain important priorities for us. We are and remain committed to constitutional reform.

Defence Policy: Continue to expand naval bases and the “wooden wall” while look towards investing in new naval technologies. No army expansion is needed for the foreseeable future.
Foreign Policy: We should continue to boost relations with our kin and old friends: principally the Boers and the Japanese. Britain is more important than Prussia and we would do well to forge an alliance with the “lion of the near north-west.”

thorbecke_zps4d446906.png


Liberale Partij (Liberal Party)

Party Leader and Prospective Prime Minister: Johan Thorbecke
Ideology: Classical Liberal
Position on Dutch Political Spectrum: Left (social and economic)
Party Colours: Principally yellow, though yellow and sea green is popular in some areas.

Financial Policy: The GLP has betrayed the cause of economic liberalism! The Liberales, guided by the economic expertise of both Thorbecke and van Bosse, will restore the faith of the Dutch people in economic liberalism by cutting taxes by over 25% immediately upon winning office. Growth and lowering prices remain our top priority, and we will under no circumstances raise the rate of taxation or introduce tariffs. Import subsidies are a luxury in tough economic times and likely one the Dutch people wouldn't be able to afford for the foreseeable future.

Industrial Policy: Growth is best left to the “invisible hand.” Immediately put an end to costly employment subsidies; there are more than enough industrial jobs to go around.

Electoral Reform: The GLP insist on resting on “their” laurels while the vast majority of Dutchmen are ineligible to vote! Thorbecke and the Liberale Partij remain committed to universal suffrage, and will work towards it in any government we form until it is achieved. We will not sell out our principles like certain other parties.

Defence Policy: GLP expansion of the navy has and continues to be a white elephant: a costly and mostly useless prestige project which offers the people of Holland no tangible benefit and is a major strain on our national exchequer. The Liberales remain committed to cutting the defence budget in order to pay for economic growth, and favours the dismemberment of much of Gerrit's “white elephant” fleet. New naval technologies pioneered in Britain and the United States, like steam propulsion and iron-clad ships will render our wooden fleet obsolete in a few years; we should look at devoting considerable resources at staying abreast of such technological advances, and invest in a smaller, modern, more cost-effective, steam-powered fleet.

Foreign Policy: The Liberales remain the party of Prusso-Netherlands cooperation and will continue to foster strong ties with Prussia. We reject an Anglo-Netherlands alliance as an infringement of our existing Prusso-Netherlands alliance.

vdbrugghen_zpsb85dd2a9.png


Anti-Revolutionaire Partij (Anti-Revolutionary Party)

Party Leader and Prospective Prime Minister: Justinus van der Brugghen
Ideology: Traditionalist Conservative, Christian “Democrat” (Calvinist)
Position on Dutch Political Spectrum: Right (social and economic)
Party Colours: Indigo or dark purple, with orange used in some southern areas.

Financial Policy: The GLP's handling of our economy in the past four years has been nothing short of an embarrassment for King and country! Establishing a three percent tariff on all foreign goods remain the obvious, sensible solution to keeping the budget in surplus and supporting the average Dutch worker and farmer. The ARP is a patriotic party and will continue to defend and protect Dutch workers and farmers from foreign competition, and the Dutch consumer from inferior foreign goods.

Industrial Policy: The ARP is consistent in its support for the Dutch working man, whatever his profession. We will subsidise any factory which manufactures goods from Dutch produce.

Electoral Reform: Was a mistake, and is not something to be rushed into blindly. Gradual change is infinitely preferable to revolutionary change, and the ARP supports the reintroduction of the weighted franchise.

Defence Policy: The GLP's naval expansion was supported at every stage of introduction by the ARP and we will continue to support it. Now it is time for expansion and modernisation of the army and we will look at improving both troop numbers and equipment. Tariffs will pay for any increase in the defence budget we require.

Foreign Policy: We should only seek to maintain good relations with God-fearing, Protestant nations like ourselves. The Boers of southern Africa remain our closest friends and should be our top diplomatic priority, not Japanese heathens or Columbian Catholics.

deDecker_zps8b40967e.png


De Katholieken (The Catholics)

Party Leader and Prospective Prime Minister: Pierre de Decker
Ideology: Centrist, Christian Democrat (Catholic)
Position on Dutch Political Spectrum: centre-left, (social) centrist (economic)
Party Colours: Green, though some candidates prefer to wear gold and white, the colours of the Vatican.

Financial Policy: We remain committed to cutting taxes on the poorer sections of society, who can afford to pay less. De Katholieken will ensure that the poor will always pay less taxes than the middle classes and clergy, who will in turn always pay less tax than those already rich and prosperous. We remain open to both tariffs and import subsidies, should the respective situations call for their use.

Industrial Policy: Maintaining employment should be the only reason for government intervention in the industrial sector, and we will only subsidise those industries who employ over 2000 workers and are in danger of failing.

Electoral Reform: The current system of drawing constituencies is a joke, and only serves to artificially improve the electoral fortunes of the GLP and other parties. An independent boundary commission must be set up forthwith to ensure the fairer distribution of votes and fairer results for all parties, especially the electorate. Universal suffrage is a desirable outcome if not a top priority for us at the moment, and we are more than prepared to work with the Liberales and other like-minded parties to see it enacted. A vote for De Katholieken is a vote for consensus politics, and we will continue to defend the rights of all Dutchmen: both Catholic and Protestant; Dutch-speaking and French-speaking.

Defence Policy: Is not a priority for us, as we have more than adequate means to defend our nation thanks to excessive GLP spending. Cut the defence budget to fund administration, education or other more worthwhile policies. The government should encourage more Catholics to join the defence forces, and we will do our part to increase Catholic enlistment and end anti-Catholic discrimination in our army and navy.

Foreign Policy: We believe fervently that the Dutch state should make amends with the Vatican, Austria, France, Spain and other Catholic nations. There is a good deal of commercial potential for Dutch exports to countries in South America, Colombia in particular, and establishing good diplomatic relations with these nations will prove huge economic dividends in the near future.


Notes:

[1] I believe this form of Gerrymandering is known as “cracking” in the US.

[2] The closest thing The Netherlands had to a police force at the time.
 
The GLP has betrayed the cause of economic liberalism! The Liberales, guided by the economic expertise of both Thorbecke and van Bosse, will restore the faith of the Dutch people in economic liberalism by cutting taxes by over 25% immediately upon winning office.

They still try to pull that good ol' trick on us these days :D
Unfortunately, quickly after the elections, said promise to cut taxes is the first thing to be compromised on...

I'd actually like to see the Anti-Revolutionaries in power, but given the electoral reform, I guess that ain't gonna happen. Perhaps it's time for a Socialist Party, though? Or am I practising chronological blasphemy now?
 
I'll have to wait until the other election updates before hazarding a guess as to the outcome, but 'twas a cracking one nonetheless. I always do enjoy the semi-meticulous detail and the weaving of subtle in-game events into the 'narrative.'

One thing has always puzzled me, though – why one Earth would Gerrymandering be a step up from voter harassment? I assume your country has both, and then you enact the 'reform' to eliminate harassment, but it still seems an odd way of presetning it...

So far, by the way, this new format is looking very promising.
 
Gen M: I assure you that cutting taxes on day one is one policy that the Liberales will definitely keep if they win power. In Vicky II political parties have their tax policy somewhat determined by their economic policy: L-F parties are capped to a maximum 50% tax rate, Interventionist parties have no cap, State Capitalist parties are capped at a minimum 25% tax rate and Planned Economy a minimum of 50%. The Liberales are a L-F party and our current rate of taxation is above 50%, so the second the Liberales or another L-F party win power the game will automatically cut taxes to the maximum allowed; 50%.

You are perfectly right to guess that The Netherlands will not be seeing socialists for a long time to come. The first real "socialist" force in The Netherlands was the SDB - a Communist party in Vicky II - which was founded in the early 1880's IIRC; they only elected one MP throughout their short history (their leader, FD Niewenhuis.) The first successful socialist party in The Netherlands was actually the PvdA, and they were formed only as recently as 1946.

As for the ARP, I have an ace up my sleeve in regards to them and their electoral fortunes, but I'm afraid you'll have to wait for another two or three elections before I am prepared play it. ;)

Densley: Well, why is voter harassment a step up from underground political parties? Allowing political parties means "passing" harassment, and so on. It's safer to assume that your country has all these things going on at the same time, and you remove them one by one until you get to non-secret ballots. Personally I think Gerrymandering should be the last reform, because it's silly that the game should imply that people in the US still use voice votes or a show of hands or whatever to elect their presidents.
 
.. because it's silly that the game should imply that people in the US still use voice votes or a show of hands or whatever to elect their presidents.

Yes, that would be silly. Thank goodness that the US has moved beyond that and has the sensible institution that is the Electoral College to determine presidential elections. ;)

Anyway, more relevant to the update, you've laid out some interesting programs for the political parties. Overall, I still like the Gematigde Liberalen best, but I suspect that the times (or Vicky itself) are currently better suited to a laissez-faire approach to the economy. Mind you, the last time I played Vicky it was less than a year old, didn't have any expansions and didn't have much in the way of patching done, so it's entirely possible the economic system has been overhauled since then. :)
 
Yes, that would be silly. Thank goodness that the US has moved beyond that and has the sensible institution that is the Electoral College to determine presidential elections. ;)

Anyway, more relevant to the update, you've laid out some interesting programs for the political parties. Overall, I still like the Gematigde Liberalen best, but I suspect that the times (or Vicky itself) are currently better suited to a laissez-faire approach to the economy. Mind you, the last time I played Vicky it was less than a year old, didn't have any expansions and didn't have much in the way of patching done, so it's entirely possible the economic system has been overhauled since then. :)

Funny you say that, because back in 1.1 we used to avoid laissez-faire like the plague. IIRC throughput differences between the economic policies were not quite as pronounced as they would be in future so there was little benefit to going laissez-faire - and thanks to silly capitalists and their obsession with useless fertiliser factories doing so was a sure-fire method to tank your economy and industrial score. In those days, going State Capitalist and staying there for the whole game was not merely a viable economic option, it was the most profitable economic option... *sigh* those were the days.

I'm surprised people like the GLP given how well they've been managing the economy. Then again we can invoke the precedent of John Major, who won an election when the economy was bad and lost one when it was good. In conclusion, electors are a funny breed of people. :)
 
I'm surprised people like the GLP given how well they've been managing the economy. Then again we can invoke the precedent of John Major, who won an election when the economy was bad and lost one when it was good. In conclusion, electors are a funny breed of people. :)

I might've been playing 1.2, maybe even 1.3? After that I kinda went away (I had a jolly old time playing as Austria and turning all the Czechs and a large proportion of other minorities into ethnic Germans - I ended up with well over 50 percent of the total population being identified as German. I believe that's been nerfed as well since then).

Anyway, I like the GLP for its program, not so much their actual performance. :)
 
I've just finished reading the lot, great stuff!

Even though I've only been a forumite for a couple of months, I've been reading AARs here for several years, and was a big fan of your previous Netherlands one. And looks like you haven't lost that eye for meticulous detail.

These election updates are great, even though they are completely ahistorical for Holland :p they feel really British to me for some reason.

I think I'll reread the chapters on the 1848-1914 period of my general Dutch history book as I'm pretty hazy on the details, but as I recall liberals and moderate liberals reigned supreme for the first decades after 1848 (it even got to a point where the king tried to keep his own conservative cabinet in place despite the majority of the Staten-Generaal not supporting it IIRC). There were no real political parties until the 1880s and cabinets didn't really have a political colour until 1888. But then again, where would be the fun in describing that? :)
 
Really enjoying this, I can remember back to your original Dutch AAR and this one seems a definate improvement. I'm particularly enjoying the politics and the election updates especially. I really like the breakdown of different constituencies.

Great AAR, looking forward to the coming updates and the results of this election - I'm predicting major gains for the Liberals and the Catholics.