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Evil Capitalist said:
Yes, but a depressingly large amount of that was self inflicted. Curse you, Peron!

That said, you're right- the strategic cooperation with Brazil will only have helped the Estado Novo. And without the strategic focus on Europe in years to come, Latin America might expect a little more generosity.

True, Peron was responsible for a lot of the damage. But it was caused, in part, by a fear of American intervention in the Argentine economy, as well as foolish attempts to nationalize the economy in order to prevent American domination.
 
This raises an interesting question; will there now be genuine reforms in the USSR, or will Zhukov merely follow the same path that Andropov, and to a lesser extent Kruschev did in RL? Can he afford to, politically speaking?
 
I've missee too many of this Grand AAR's updates! :D What terrifying world you've created Mettermrck! :D When this is all done with can we expect a casuality chart? I'm surprised there's anybody left in Japan for example to be fighting at all! Considering the entire world has gone through the most catastrophic war in history, I expect that London will address thing such as infrastructure, reparations perhaps, arms sales, decomissioning ships, disbanding armies etc.
 
Another point: Kaliningrad has been refered to in some of the recent maps as 'Konigsberg.' Does this mean that East Prussia is still ethnically German, and that it might be restored to a future Federal Republic? What about Gdansk/Danzig, as well? I suppose this will all be settled soon enough.

It's actually quite ridiculous to consider that Germany is going to come out of all this hell united, and almost certainly with it's pre-war borders, or something pretty similar to them, largely intact. :wacko:
 
Vincent Julien said:
Another point: Kaliningrad has been refered to in some of the recent maps as 'Konigsberg.' Does this mean that East Prussia is still ethnically German, and that it might be restored to a future Federal Republic? What about Gdansk/Danzig, as well? I suppose this will all be settled soon enough.

It's actually quite ridiculous to consider that Germany is going to come out of all this hell united, and almost certainly with it's pre-war borders, or something pretty similar to them, largely intact. :wacko:

Regarding Königsberg-Kaliningrad issue, he could have made a mistake. Even Mettermrck is a human.
 
Great work on the last two updates. I'm really looking forward to how things shape up in the end.
 
Thank you very much Mettermrck for your last couple of updates, you are really summing up this masterpiece in such a great style that one just have to say thanks :)

Keep up the good working, I am really looking forward to the next update, but at the same time I feel sorry for that we are closing in on the end of this great tale :D
 
Lurken said:
Regarding Königsberg-Kaliningrad issue, he could have made a mistake. Even Mettermrck is a human.
Or perhaps the western generals weren't too keen on noting every Soviet name change made post-war?
 
Petrarca said:
Or perhaps the western generals weren't too keen on noting every Soviet name change made post-war?

You could see it both ways. I think since the name-change was so recent, that the West would still call it Koenigsberg. Yet sticking with Kaliningrad, at least for the duration of the Soviet control, might enhance the narrative. I'll make the appropriate changes. Good catch, all. :)
 
Update!
 
One thought does occur to me. Britain might be much more willing to join the EU, given the attitude of America towards it over teh past few ears, and because the empire is essentially finished.
 
Absolutely. Specifically the collapse of the 'imperial option' now that Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Malaya have all gone, depriving the commonwealth of its developed markets, will mean that no one can talk about Britain going it alone. With the US so overpowering, it's unlikely that anyone would think of Britain as the second western superpower, and see it as somehow superior to Europe. Britain would grab on to the opportunity Europe presents to recover some small vestige of her past glory.
 
Without an Empire, Britain will turn to Europe in order to survive, especially in this time line.
 
Most of the immediate post-war leaders were outrageously pig-headed on this issue though, particularly men like Eden. The question is whether events here will have made them revise their views sufficently. I seriously doubt that there will be the unhesitating embrace that some people are suggesting; if Britain does join a proto-EU here at some point in the fifties, it will be the sullen move of a soundly defeated power, which lacks any real enthusiasm, but is merely a survival instinct.
 
While I agree that some politicians were particularly unrealistic, you've got to remember that a lot of real life reluctance was down to the fact that for men like these, mostly born in the age of Victoria, the idea that Britain did not possess a viable independence of policy was simply unbelievable. Most British pig-headedness on economic matters after the war was down to the preservation of Sterling as a currency of comparable power to the dollar, a symbolic sign that Britain was still a first rank power both in economic and general terms.

In particular, the way that many British felt they could fall back on the Empire, even if they chose 'starvation corner', was a sign of this firm belief in independence. Although you could argue that any commonwealth-united proposal after 1931 is nostalgic moonshine, it's believable while the empire exists. But not here. Britain is defeated, humbled and shamed (particularly by America). If they're going to do anything, it'll be trying to recover ground against the USA by uniting with Europe.

That, and the Americans will be absolutely determined to save money by getting the Europeans to help each other in reconstruction. Remember that the foundations of European integration were laid by US diplomats (something they rapidly came to regret).
 
I should clarify my point; Britain will be presented with Europe as the only dish on the menu, and they will join as soon as is possible. But it will be precisely because there is no other option avaliable, and because of the stack of disasters that has befallen the empire in the last two decades which have brought it to this 'undesirable' position, that such a decision will not be taken with a great deal of joy or enthusiasm, indeed, it will be taken with a great deal of regret and bitterness, and will be understood as the final mark on Britain's fall from world power over the last twenty years.
 
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DP; Screw the server.
 
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In many, perhaps most quarters, yes. There'll be a few who embrace the future keenly, like WSC, but they certainly will be in the minority.
 
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April 1954: London II: The New Europe

Within a week after the political and international fanfare marking the arrival of the delegates from around the world, the London Conference settled down into the hard business of negotiation, as the circumstances of the end of the war in Europe were translated into the firm numbers of peace. In addition to broaching the concepts of a future European order, there was the discussion of the fate of Europe’s countries, as Rockefeller and Zhukov, joined by a myriad of leaders, hammered out the historical Treaty of London.

In December 1945, the parties at the Orleans Conference promulgated the Four Principles, the policies of demilitarization, namely the then conversion of the German economy to non-military use, denazification, ridding the then German and Austrian societies of the vestiges of the Nazi regime, democratization, the transition to less authoritarian governments, and decartelization, the transition from an economy of large businesses to a free market. By 1954, the issues still retained a measure of relevance, though denazification had translated into what some termed “debolshevization”, or the more popular term, decommunization. No longer were these terms merely an instrument of reform for Germany and Austria but rather were now applied to the complete spectra of Europe, especially those Vienna Pact nations. The London Conference began with an updating and reiterating of these principles, as the framework of peace.

Of the four principles, perhaps the easiest to implement was democratization, a popular concept amongst the delegates. Most Vienna Pact countries had already succumbed to OTO forces and many, including Spain and Italy, had elected less communist, if still leftist, governments. In exchange for their military capitulation, their internal affairs were mostly left alone. In either country, the Communist Party was quietly renamed to more mundane labels, and a few token reforms were made to a market economy. Yet the legacy of Soviet rule did not completely disappear. Some nations, such as the Low Countries, Germany, Austria, and Hungary, were suppressed by military incursion and campaigning, and therefore their Communist power blocs were generally dismantled. In Germany and Austria, they were almost non-existent by 1954, and in Hungary, the first post-war elections would see a leftist coalition gaining less than fifteen percent of the vote. Other countries, however, such as Yugoslavia, and the Balkan states, would emulate the examples of Italy and Spain, earning the epithet of token democracies. The democratization effort saw the emergence of two realities, the first being that the major signatories favored peace above true reform. Unlike President Lindbergh in 1950, who sought the true expulsion of communism from Europe, Rockefeller was more pragmatic, and consented to what the New York Times dubbed, ”democracy in name”. The second reality, which above all else influenced the post-war order, was that the Four Principles did not apply to the Soviet Union. In a quiet, perhaps unvoiced exchange, Zhukov would trade internal control over his country for the capitulation and withdrawal of the Red Army from Europe.

The weakness of democratization also extended to its counterpart of decommunization. Though the war itself had somewhat effected this change, the system of token democracy ensured that this principle, as well, would not be carried through to an effective conclusion. One of the reasons is illustrated in the fate of Germany. The fall of Pieck’s Communist regime a couple years earlier, coupled with the expectation of territorial loss in the coming peace, meant that the greater fear in some German circles was the resurgence of a fascist element rather than more leftist opponents. The prominence of Von Saucken’s Pionierkorps raised the specter of the “brownshirts” from the 1930s, or the old Freikorps. Fear of the right and left in the political spectrum meant that the post-war governments in Germany and Austria especially, became centrist in philosophy. The rise of Adenauer’s Free Christian Union (FCU) is a prime example of this.

As the ”token democracy” contributed to the weakness of decommunization, or ”central dynamism” as it would be known, so too did this undermine the true demilitarization of Europe. Fears of extremist reactions would contribute to the strengthening of national militaries, in some cases with the blessings of the major signatories, such as France and the Netherlands, and the United States and Germany. Territorial changes would also foster enmity between nations, though none of this seemed to be evident in London in 1954. No great empires were being dismantled as in 1919, and no new nations were being brought into the international family. It was thought that a system of ”territorial adjustment” rather than a true overhaul of borders, would reduce post-war tensions. Scarcely any adjustments were to be made in Western Europe, mostly centering around the restoration and guarantee of the 1939 borders. In Eastern Europe, most changes involved the borders of the Soviet Union, as well as the controversial arrangements over the Banat and Bessarbia, and DeGaulle’s proposals for a “Great Poland” which could hold its own in that region. There were also questions regarding the revival of Finland, which was less about diplomatic arrangements than an outright military war for independence. The reduction of “Big Bulgaria’ also to be dealt with, in addition to the fate of Communist Turkey, which had not been militarily suppressed but which many wished to punish with territorial loss.

Of the Four Principles, however, which marked the opening portion of the London negotiations, it was decartelization which was to hold the greatest promise. The reduction of Europe’s economies, maintained barely under the auspices of the “Churchill Plan”, had contributed to a true appraisal of the post-war order. Churchill’s ‘United States of Europe’, at least its economic aspects, were brought under consideration, as several nations, particularly France, Spain, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands, considered the question of reduced tariffs, commercial exchanges, and incorporated markets. The Treaty of London, primarily as a result of these discussions, would include provisions for the future discussion of a Common Market, and would set the stage for post-war conferences in Paris and Brussels. Specifics were generally lacking yet the treaty, in effect, would give its blessings to such economic cooperation. Despite his work in bringing the idea into consideration, Churchill would echo what he deemed to be the reluctance of Britain, and the concept would be less well received in centrist Germany. Yet much of this remained in the future, and there was a sense of economic optimism during these initial negotiations.

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For better or worse, the attempts to promulgate high statements of policy reflected the expectation of millions for a final peace. Its muddled success, however, was in keeping with unsettled realities. A war, begun in absolute principle, was rapidly brought to conclusion by compromise and expediency. This opening phase of the London Treaty mirrored this quite accurately, with the more controversial discussions of territory still in the coming months.
 
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Thus far the conference seems to have raised more questions than it has answered as far as a final treaty. But then a peace "rapidly brought on by compromise and expediency" will generally leave more uncertainty than a total victory. Lets ask Mickey what to do! :)