The Most Sublime Porte - An Ottoman AAR

[InquisiteurArax]

This has been one of my favourite AAR since I started reading on the Paradox Forum years ago.
I'm really looking forward to the next update and want to thank you for the quality of the story you have been presenting us with across the last two years

 

[Tommy4ever]

Yay!

 

[JerseyGiants88]

So, should people not have forgotten about this and still be interesting in the ultimate fate for the Sublime Porte: Chapters are a-coming

We have not forgoteen, and we are still interested! I think plenty of us know how you feel, and I for one am always happy to wait patiently for an AAR of this quality. Keep it up and can't wait for a new update.

 

[flyslovenc]

I really like your style of storytelling and looking forward to a new chapter of my favorite AAR.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I do enjoy this AAR so whenever you are ready...

 

[blitzthedragon]

I know I haven't forgotten. This is one of my favorites!

 

[diskoerekto]

excellent news!

 

[HIMDogson]

Can't wait to see how this ends- one of the best Victoria 2 AARs, IMO.

 

[eoncommander]

This is very exciting news! The pandemic has been hard on everyone, but I am very glad to hear this project is returning.

 

[InvisibleBison]

I'm looking forward to the rest of this excellent story.

 

[Riotkiller]

The war which broke out upon on the Sublime Porte’s declaration of war on May 14th 1937 has a number of names by which it is known. The Bushire War, The Russo-Perso-Ottoman War, and The Caucasian War are just some of those by which it has been called. What it was not, however, was a Fourth Great War. While by no means a minor conflict, with much devastation meted out by the belligerent nations, it was definitely not a global conflict – The fighting took place entirely in Eurasia – and the Russian Empire was the only Great Power on the opposing side, where they were supported by the Persian Empire, the fascist Sikh nation of Khalistan, and the Indian nation of Sindh. The Ottoman Empire was in turn supported by its allies in the Kingdom of France, the Kingdom of Belgium, the Republic of South Africa, the Sultanate of Atjeh, the Dominican Republic, the Empire of Brazil, the Republic of China, and of course, the Principality of Romania.

The Ottomans were not however supported by the Republic of Japan, which blamed the Porte for the war and broke its alliance with us to declare official neutrality. Relations between Constantinople and Tokyo had in fact been cooling for a number of years since the signing of the Sino-Ottoman Alliance however, and the Japanese decision neither surprised nor deterred Grand Vizier Rauf Bey. The Grand Vizier had used the past year of preparations well, ensuring that our armies were positioned to take the war to our foes immediately, as well as make use of the huge technological advances that had taken place since the Third Great War. As such, the Caucasian War was defined neither by the Trench Warfare and desert skirmishing that characterised much of the First Great War, nor by the creeping artillery barrages that had characterised our victories over Russia in the Third Great War.

The aluminium monoplane had revolutionised air warfare by the late 1930s​

Instead, the Caucasian War was a war of movement, of motorisation, and above all else: A war in the skies. The aeroplane had taken part in previous wars, but the 1930s had seen the development of new aluminium monoplanes to replace the wooden biplanes of the first generations of fighter planes, which provided greater velocity and had larger fuel tanks for much higher ranges. This had also led to the development of specialist bomber aircraft which were capable of inflicting massive damage upon ground industry. The Ottoman Air Force was primarily made up of Basak Savasci fighter planes, Basak Sahin divebombers for close air support, and the Kartal bomber plane. These formed the backbone of the allied Air Forces in the Caucasian War, although the French Dewoitine D.510 fighters and Amiot 143 bombers were also in common use with the French utilising Ottoman air bases to support the French Expeditionary Force.

The other great military invention of the past two decades had been the tank. First envisioned during the First Great War, they were too slow to be developed to take part in that, and had only appeared in combat in small numbers in the late 1910s when they had primarily been used as a form of mobile artillery or a way to cross enemy trenches. By the 1930s however advances in automotive technology had led to the development of full armoured divisions in the Ottoman army, utilising the new Sipahi tank. The Ottoman 4th Army and 8th Army had in fact transitioned entirely to the new technologies by the time of the outbreak of the war, with both of them consisting solely of Motorised Guards Infantry, Armoured Tank, and Close Air Support divisions in order to maximise their mobility and utilise a new theoretical military doctrine that had been developed in France known as La Guerre éclair, or the "lightning war" – where armoured units would achieve breakthroughs and then rapidly encircle and destroy enemy armies – though this doctrine had yet to be tested in a real war. The Ottoman 11th Army was also in the process of being raised and equipped at the outbreak of the war, and would likewise be fully armoured with air support; although every Ottoman army had some armoured and air divisions attached.

Upon the outbreak of the war, the Ottoman army had both the 1st Army and also Ferid Pasha’s 7th Army in Romania and Dobrudja ready to invade Bessarabia, with Namik Pasha’s 5th Army in reserve in Europe, which were all under the overall command of 1st Army General Celaleddin Bey. In the Caucasus, Omar Pasha’s 4th Army was aiming to use its armoured formations to inflict devastation upon the Russian and Persian forces in the plains of Azerbaijan; much like had been achieved during the Third Great War. Halil Bey’s more traditional 9th Army was meanwhile planning to fight in the mountains themselves before an invasion of Circassia could begin. Meanwhile the armoured 8th Army under Sabaheddin Bey would be focused on crossing the mountains into Persia and then destroying the Persian forces on the Persian Central Plateau, and the 6th Army under Cevad Bey would be leading the fighting in Southern Persia, with Lutfi Bey’s colonial 2nd Army acting as a general reserve in Mesopotamia. The 11th Army under Suleyman Bey was in the process of completing its formation and would then be sent to whichever front required it most; while the 2nd and 10th Armies remained on garrison duty in Africa. All Ottoman forces were primed to invade, and attacked immediately upon the declaration of war.

The Ottomans enjoyed early success after the declaration of war despite heavy casualties being suffered at the First Battle of Izmail (May 1937)​

The Russians, even with the ultimatum providing them with at least a day’s notice, were caught by surprise by such a swift Ottoman attack, and in Bessarabia a Russian corps under Valery Denikin was obliterated immediately by the 1st Army at Balti. At Izmail however, Russian General Vasily Kuropatkin, with the benefit of significant air support, was able to put up fierce resistance and inflict huge casualties upon Ferid Pasha’s 7th Army despite his eventual forced retreat. The 7th Army was therefore brought to the rear for refitting and recovery with Namik Pasha’s 5th Army being brought up to replace it in the frontlines. The heavy casualties suffered by the 7th Army in the opening battles did therefore force the Sublime Porte to delay the planned invasion of the Ukraine and instead move to a defensive position on the Bessarabian Front in June 1937, with much of the focus being on the ongoing battle for air supremacy; where the Ottoman air force was inflicting heavy damage on its Russian counterparts.

Meanwhile in the Caucasian Theatre, Omar Pasha’s 4th Army had begun with an attack on an unprepared Russian army at Derbent; and while his tanks took heavy casualties in the mountainous terrain he was still able to force the Russians back. With the opening salvos having seen a string of Russian defeats, Grand Vizier Rauf Bey quickly moved to announce plans to seize the Persian region of Luristan in addition to Bushire. In fact, summer 1937 eventually gave way to a series of massive Ottoman victories, with quickfire successes coming at Novorossiysk and Ekaterinodar in the Caucasian Theatre and leading to plans for a much larger scale invasion of Circassia to be drawn up. The extremely outdated Persian navy was also destroyed by the Ottoman Indian Ocean Fleet in the Persian Gulf on June 2nd 1937, with the Ottomans not even requiring dreadnoughts to defeat the predominantly ironclad Persian fleet. This was followed up by Cevad Bey’s 6th Army defeating the Persian forces at the Battle of Dezful in the Zagros Mountains on June 20th, and the invasion of Persia was consequently able to begin in earnest.

The Persian Navy is obliterated by the Ottoman Indian Ocean Fleet (June 2nd 1937)

The Bessarabian and Caucasian Fronts at the time of the arrival of the Belgian Expeditionary Force in summer 1937​

The Russians appeared to have focused the vast majority of their forces on the Bessarabian Front, and therefore were able to begin an invasion of Romania, while they remained on the defensive in the other theatres. Russian armies were faring extremely poorly in battle in Romania though; and after one corps was annihilated at Iasi and another Russian army driven back by combined Ottoman & Romanian forces at Chisinau, the Bessarabian Front began to return to the picture envisioned by the original Ottoman battle plan. The arrival of the Belgian Expeditionary Force in late June also helped to rectify the numerical balance in the Theatre, with the French Expeditionary Force being sent to the Caucasian Front. An attempted Persian invasion of Arabia was then defeated by Lutfi Bey’s 2nd Army in the Battle of Dubai at the end of June, and the 2nd Army thereafter counter-attacked across the Strait of Hormuz to begin an invasion of Persian Balochistan.

July saw another string of Ottoman victories as the military juggernaut really kicked into gear; with Russian forces being all but obliterated at Galati and Braila, and an entire Persian army surrendering to Cevad Bey at the Battle of Isfahan. By the end of the month a further Russian army had been destroyed when Kuropatkin was defeated at the second battle of Iasi, and a retreating Russian army under Denikin had also been surrounded and obliterated at Cernauti. This left only one Russian army in Romania; and Namik Pasha’s 5th Army drove back that last Russian force under Lev Golivin at Botosani on August 4th 1937 to end the Russian invasion once and for all. This led to such a feeling of confidence in the Sublime Porte that Grand Vizier Rauf Bey made another intervention; this time staking an Ottoman claim to the entire Russian region of North Caucasia.

The Russians are driven completely out of Romania following the Ottoman victory at the Battle of Botosani (August 1937)​

Ottoman public support may not have been wholeheartedly behind the war at the start; but the massive success enjoyed during the summer of 1937 certainly ensured that the public was swelling as time went on. The battle in the air had been decisively won by the Ottoman Air Force in the first month; with Russian planes in Bessarabia and Ukraine destroyed on the ground in many cases, and the Ottoman air force now began a strategic bombing campaign aiming at Russian industrial centres in Crimea, Kiev, and the Donbass region; where the Russian air force was suffering a huge shortage of trained pilots after the initial battles. Russian tanks had performed better than the airforce, with their main medium tank – the Tsar Tank 24 – capable of inflicting significant damage in an equal fight against our slightly less powerful but faster and more numerous Sipahi’s. The Russian tanks were however often being deployed in much smaller units and therefore were unable to change the course of the war despite their occasional localised successes - A clear error in the Russian battle plan that the Sublime Porte was doing an excellent job of capitalising on.

And so, with the remnants of the Russian invasion force continuing to be mopped up in Bessarabia in August, confidence was therefore growing that the war would soon end in a decisive Ottoman victory. The Persian army had all but collapsed in the opening two months; and with the Russians retreating on all fronts, it seemed a matter of time until Moscow capitulated. That is; until a Russian counter-offensive led by the talented general Yedor Yudenich attacked Halil Bey’s 9th Army at Novorossiysk in September 1937. For the first time in the war, Russian tanks had been massed together in a large force; and they inflicted a crushing defeat on the numerically superior Ottoman forces. The Battle of Novorossiysk clearly illustrated the tactical error that the Russians had made by not concentrating their armoured forces sooner, and they certainly learnt their belated lesson. Two weeks later, the Russians inflicted further extremely heavy casualties at Izmail on the Bessarabian Front where they again utilised their new tactics, although they were forced to withdraw due to being massively outnumbered. The question now was whether the new Russian doctrine would be enough to make a decisive swing in the momentum of the war.

Russian tanks in action at the Battle of Novorossiysk (August 1937)

The largest tank battle in history ended in a significant Russian victory at Novorossiysk (September 1937)

Ottoman forces suffer very heavy losses despite breaking through at the Second Battle of Izmail (September 1937)​

As it turned out, the answer was a qualified no. Through Autumn 1937, the Russians were continually driven back further on the Bessarabian Front as Ottoman forces crossed the Dnieper and began an invasion of the Ukraine, while their forces were also driven back by French & Ottoman forces in the Caucasus. However, the crushing victories of the opening weeks of the war were now coming at a much higher cost for the Ottoman forces as the Russian tactical shift stiffened their resolve. Fortunately, this belated improvement in Russian military performance had proven far too little too late for their allies. The Persian Army had been almost utterly destroyed after their disastrous defeat at Isfahan in July, and Autumn had seen our troops cross the Zagros Mountains in force and enter an almost undefended Persian homeland. With French troops supporting our rear and mopping up any remaining resistance, the “Lightning War” doctrine was put to brutal use as Cevad Bey’s 6th Army swept through Northern Persia to the capital of Tehran. Token resistance was put up, but Tehran surrendered to the triumphant Cevad on October 22nd 1937.

The Persian Front as Tehran surrenders to Ottoman forces (October 22nd 1937)

Crucial victories over enemy forces are scored on both fronts in November 1937​

The Fall of Tehran dealt a crushing blow to the morale of the enemy forces, and the Russian and Indian forces fighting in Europe were inflicted with defeat after defeat through the winter of 1937 as a result. The Sindhi Expeditionary Force was destroyed by Namik Pasha’s 5th Army at the Battle of Balti in November, and after further Russian defeats at Nikolaev and at Tbilisi, the Russian offensive in Georgia was brought to a shuddering halt when General Yudenich’s tank forces were heavily mauled by Halil Bey’s 9th Army at the Battle of Poti later in the month. With this victory the last Russian threat to Ottoman territory withdrew, and the fighting would take place entirely on enemy soil for the rest of the winter, with the Sublime Porte celebrating success after success. Any premature thoughts that the Russians were out for the count by the end of the year were soon shut down though, when news of the chaos in China began filtering through to the rest of the world…

The Chinese Theatre has taken a turn for the worse for the Chinese in January 1938​

 

[Riotkiller]

A big thank you to everyone for the warm welcome back!


Now for some rather late replies

Belgium being in the ottoman sphere is so strange, in universe, it must provide constant irritation, outrage and bemusement from their neighbours.

It was in the German sphere for a long time, but I believe that France removed it from that during the German Revolution and then both of them just stayed at Friendly without ever actually sphereing it, so I saw the opportunity and decided to take it. Belgium is a valued friend of the Porte!

About time we had another big war. Hopefully all goes well for you. The odds going in are looking pretty good, but Russia is a nation of surprises.

I was certainly... Surprised... When I stopped looking at my own theatres and decided to check out how the Chinese were doing

Catching up with this now!

I can't say I'll ever like Kemal (either the real one or the version in your history) but his departure marks a milestone in Ottoman history.

Indeed - after Pertev Pasha, he can certainly claim to have been one of the most influential people in recent Ottoman history

In all those years in the OT forum I’d never realised you were a WritAAR Riot. And an excellent one too!

I’ve just finished reading through the whole AAR over the past few weeks, and I’ve really loved it.

Your updates for the First Great War were really exceptional (although I kind of wish that defeat had led to a significant loss of territory and make turmoil ). And I’m always a sucker for the lengthy exploration of electoral politics . Although there is something about the Ottoman Empire becoming a massive, diverse, democratic and secular state that seems so unsettling .

Now time for one last big war!

Aha, this was the first time I dipped my toes into these forums instead of staying in the hive and scum and villainy that's known as the OT, so I'm glad you've enjoyed it. The First Great War was certainly fascinating to write about - It's quite rare that I've found myself fighting such a long and yet inevitable defeat whilst playing a Paradox game, but it made for a really fun change of tone for the writing.

I can't see what could possibly be unsettling about such a gigantic and friendly Porte though

Excellent as always @Riotkiller be very interesting to see if the great powers learn their lesson about world wars - fourth time's a charm

Russia's lack of an ally has stopped this being a full on GW, which also means that there won't be any "Enemy of my Enemy" events cropping up to drag the rest of the world in this time around... Unless Russia can get a GP ally mid-war by themselves, of course

 

[HIMDogson]

How long must we keep refighting this war? If we don't dismantle Russia now Russians and Ottomans will be fighting each other in spaceships and power armor. This is our opportunity to remove the threat to the north forever- I say we take it.

 

[shade55]

It's good to see an update, and a rather dramatic one at that! It seems the Russians have severely underestimated the empire this time around, and they're paying the price for it. The situation in China doesn't bode well though; I can't believe they chose NOW of all times to break apart. I doubt it'll turn the tide of the war, but it's still an inconvenience. Great update, ready for the next one!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Excellent work. What is tk be done about persia?

 

[Wixelt]

Armor counts as a kind of artillery in the game, right?

 

[diskoerekto]

China

I also think the Russian empire must be dismantled.

Welcome back again! Sorely missed!

 

[Cora Giantkiller]

Welcome back! I caught up on this AAR a couple months ago and I'm really excited to see the conclusion.

 

[stnylan]

Excellent news to see you back.

And some very decent results in Russia. China though ...

 

[DensleyBlair]

To my shame I've never found the time to catch up with this. Now that it's back it seems the perfect time to rectify that. I'll try my best to get through everything before it ends!